Nouvelles

By: Stephen J. Flanagan and James Black As countries around the world grapple with the unfolding coronavirus pandemic, the wider business of government continues. Norway's Ministry of Defence will shortly publish its next Long Term Plan, which will then be debated by parliament. The plan outlines how the Armed Forces, in tandem with other elements of government and society, can best address the threats to Norway from hostile states, terrorists, and fragile and failing states. The plan also examines how to bolster national resilience to deal with other risks including hybrid warfare, climate change and pandemics. A new Rand report, commissioned by the MoD to inform its strategy and policy development, offers perspectives from its closest allies on the emerging security challenges and strategic options facing Norway. We found broad alignment of Norwegian and allied assessments across Denmark, France, Germany, the U.K., the U.S. and NATO institutions, but some enduring differences in emphasis and priorities. Other allies recognize Norway as punching above its weight and playing a critical role in the defense of the North Atlantic and High North. At the same time, our research concludes there is no time for complacency. Norway's key allies agree that the most significant threat in the High North is not a crisis directed against Norway itself. The more plausible danger is “horizontal escalation” — a crisis elsewhere in Europe rapidly growing into a wider conflict that threatens Norwegian waters, airspace and territory. Russia continues to demonstrate hostile intent, and its military capabilities threaten the ability of Norway and its allies to operate military forces, secure critical infrastructure and protect civilian populations. The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 brings an increased threat from medium-range ballistic missiles, requiring Norwegian and allied defense planners to adjust to new threats to the homeland and region. Improvements in the Russian Northern Fleet, including surface vessels and submarines armed with modern cruise missiles, also pose an increased threat to NATO operations in the Norwegian Sea, to undersea internet cables and to sea lines of communication essential to reinforcing Norway from North America or Europe in the event of any conflict. There is also strong consensus on the enduring threats posed by terrorism, nonstate actors and challenges such as climate change in the Arctic. While all allies recognize the need to consider the strategic implications of a rising China, the United States sees China as a more direct and imminent security threat. Allies also welcome Norway's contributions to missions on NATO's eastern and southern flanks. Allies perceive Norway as having an impressive mix of high-end capabilities for a country of its size and a mature total defense concept — its strategy for engaging all elements of society in national defense. These capabilities and commitments, coupled with a well-respected approach to strategy development, have allowed Norway to have significant influence on strategic thinking within NATO. Nevertheless, significant security challenges remain, and to address them our report suggests a number of options for Norwegian leaders to consider: Strengthen deterrence in Norway: Expand surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities; increase the military posture in northern Norway; enhance the protection of bases and forces against air and missile threats; maximize the F-35 fighter jet's potential to aid joint operations; and prepare for operations in contested cyber, space and electromagnetic environments. Expand capacity to receive allied reinforcements: Build on lessons from the joint Trident Juncture 2018 exercise, which allies viewed as an important milestone but not a full stress test; pursue increasingly challenging training scenarios; ensure sufficient pre-positioned stocks of consumables and equipment; upgrade and expand infrastructure along with concepts for dispersing forces to prevent attack; and deepen cooperation to enhance military mobility and interoperability. Explore concepts to hold potential adversaries at risk: Invite allies with more advanced reconnaissance and deep-attack systems to deploy them to Norway periodically; develop longer-range weapons for Norwegian forces; explore the utility of low-cost, unmanned assets; collaborate with key allies on concepts to deny adversaries access to the sea and to better project forces onto the littoral; and refine parallel strategic communications to control escalation. Enhance national and societal resilience: Test and refine Norway's whole-of-government approach and the mechanisms for civil support to the military; contribute to NATO's strategy for addressing hybrid threats, such as disinformation, economic pressure and cyberattacks; and explore further measures to enhance collective preparedness and will to fight. Solidify Norwegian contributions to NATO and partners: Continue contributions to NATO operations beyond the north; help to address variations in defense expenditure across all NATO nations and rebalance trans-Atlantic burden-sharing; promote deeper NATO cooperation with Sweden and Finland; and use innovation and industry to enable influence within NATO. Other countries can learn from how Norway chooses to tackle these emerging challenges, and they can benefit from its lessons learned, particularly with respect to the total defense concept. Pursuit of some of these options, along with the Norwegian government's ongoing efforts to seek allied views, could help enhance deterrence in the north and overall NATO defense. Stephen J. Flanagan is a senior political scientist at the think tank Rand. James Black is a senior analyst in the defense, security and infrastructure program at Rand Europe. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/04/16/allies-share-views-on-enhancing-defense-of-norway-and-the-high-north/

Une étude vient mettre en avant l'impact de l'intelligence artificielle dans les armées, à la fois sur un plan opérationnel et industriel. L'IA, facteur d'innovation. La révolution et les évolutions apportées par l'intelligence artificielle ne sont plus à démontrer. Dans le monde civil comme militaire, algorithmes et IA viennent apporter un complément d'information et représentent une plus-value, d'autant plus incontestable dans le domaine militaire. L'ensemble des armées du monde ont bien compris la nécessité de se tourner vers le big data et l'IA afin d'innover et de parvenir à conserver une supériorité opérationnelle sur l'adversaire. Les stratégies d'IA appliquées à la défense se multiplient et s'accompagnent généralement de réflexions sur les questions éthiques, dans un contexte occidental où l'emploi de SALA est vivement critiqué. Compétition internationale. Market Forecast a consacré une étude à ce sujet, et est venu analyser les impacts de l'IA au domaine de la Défense. C'est-à-dire aussi bien les apports pour les armées que la façon dont les travaux sont menés par les industriels. Nommé « Artificial Intelligence will arm defense contractors for global growth », ce rapport met en avant la façon dont les Etats se sont tournés vers cette nouvelle technologie afin de venir compléter les moyens de leurs armées. « Des nations comme la Chine ou la Russie réalisent des investissements substantiels dans l'IA pour des applications militaires, venant parfois poser des questions au regard du droit international et des droits humains », peut-on lire dans le rapport de Market Forecast. Des investissements visant ainsi à concurrencer les pays membres de l'OTAN, qui se sont eux aussi tournés largement vers l'intelligence artificielle afin de renforcer les capacités de leurs plateformes. Volet industriel. Mais l'adoption de l'IA dans les technologies de défense vient également questionner le tissu industriel. Selon Market Forecast, dans une grande majorité des cas, les Etats devront se tourner vers de nouvelles entreprises, plus petites et souvent non issues du secteur de la Défense afin de pouvoir se doter d'algorithmes performants. « Par exemple, aux Etats-Unis, plus de 60% des contrats tournés vers l'IA, inscrits dans le budget présidentiel de l'année fiscale 2017, sont menés par des acteurs non traditionnels de la Défense et des petits fournisseurs », rapporte Market Forecast. S'il n'y a aucun doute sur le fait que les géants de la défense et fournisseurs historiques continueront à mener leur activité, beaucoup s'appuieront donc sur de plus petites structures, spécialisées, afin d'intégrer la brique IA. En France, on peut ainsi penser à la petite entreprise EarthCube, qui malgré sa taille réduite et son jeune 'ge fait fortement parler d'elle et est parvenue à décrocher d'importants contrats dans la défense. Elle en a même fait son cœur d'activité. A l'avenir, les géants de la défense devront donc marcher aux côtés des plus petits et apprendre à collaborer avec ces structures qui portent elles aussi l'innovation. Car en effet, le marché de l'IA pour la défense devrait connaître un taux de croissance annuel moyen de 10,29% entre 2020 et 2028, démontrant l'importance de cette technologie qui offre d'importants débouchés commerciaux. https://www.air-cosmos.com/article/lintelligence-artificielle-fait-voluer-le-paysage-de-la-dfense-22924

Nathan Strout A new tool developed by NATO will help the alliance prepare for GPS jammers, allowing operational commands to see what impact the devices will have on their GPS receivers, the NATO Communications and Information Agency announced April 6. “NATO's adversaries have the ability to degrade or deny GPS-enabled capabilities," Jean-Philippe Saulay, a NATO navigation and identification officer, said in a statement. “NATO must take appropriate measures to ensure Allied forces can operate in a degraded or denied environment." The Radar Electromagnetic and Communication Coverage Tool, or REACT, is able to estimate how large an area will be affected by specific GPS jammers. By inputting technical information and location data about known jammers, users can see on a map what areas will be affected by the devices and prepare accordingly. The software also works for other global navigation satellite systems used by NATO, such as the European Union's Galileo constellation. According to the agency, REACT is only being used for testing and experimentation at the moment. It was shown to operators during the Trident Jupiter 2019 exercise for feedback. Developers are now working to ensure the software is interoperable with NATO's classified networks and available to operational commands. Sponsored by the NATO Navigation and Identification Programme of Work, REACT is available to NATO members free of charge. Tools like REACT highlight the alliance's dependence on global navigation satellite systems for accurate position, navigation and timing data, as well as the investments that China, Russia and Iran, among others, are making to develop and field jamming devices. And it's more than just a hypothetical issue for NATO: In 2018, Norway officials publicly claimed that Russia had jammed GPS signals during NATO's Trident Jupiter exercise. “NATO must maintain superiority in the electromagnetic environment, including but not limited to, positioning, navigation and timing services," said Enrico Casini, a communications and navigation engineer at the NCI Agency. “The electromagnetic environment has become even more contested in recent years." Meanwhile, the U.S. military has been pursuing efforts to overcome the threat posed by GPS jammers. For instance, the U.S. Space Force is working to enable a more secure military signal with GPS III, and just last year the U.S. Army fielded anti-jamming antennas to the 2nd Cavalry Regiment in Germany. https://www.c4isrnet.com/newsletters/military-space-report/2020/04/15/natos-new-tool-shows-the-impact-of-gps-jammers

By: Andrew Chuter LONDON — The British government has hit the pause button on its integrated defense review as it pours its efforts into battling the coronavirus crisis, Cabinet Office officials have told the parliamentary Defence Committee. “The Cabinet Office has informed the defence select committee that work on the integrated review has been formally paused across Whitehall,” the committee announced April 15. Committee chair Tobias Ellwood said in a statement that the move by the Cabinet Office, the department leading the review, was the right move to take given the crisis. “There would be no point in conducting an in-depth review of the nation's defence and security challenges to an artificial deadline, especially at a time when Whitehall is rightly focusing on tackling conronavirus,” Ellwood said. The recently appointed Defence Committee chair said that when the review restarts it will have to do so “with the added consequences of the pandemic to be considered.” A spokesperson for the Defence Committee said the Cabinet Office had not given any indication as to when it might start to ramp up the review effort again. However, two sources tell Defense News that the review could go on ice for up to a year. In a letter announcing the pause, deputy national security adviser Alex Ellis said that while the review was on hold, the government would be retaining a “small core capacity to think about the long-term effects of COVID-19 and issues expected to be covered in the Integrated Review." This team will be very limited in size and function, he added. The Ministry of Defence already faced mounting budget problems before the pandemic struck. Now, the massive economic crisis facing the British government makes it highly unlikely any additional cash will be found for defense, despite the prominent role the military is playing here combating the virus. The review was initiated immediately following Boris Johnson's election as prime minister in early December. Johnson promised it would be the most fundamental review of its kind since the end of the Cold War. Defense, security, foreign policy and international development strategy were to all be part of the effort. The review was scheduled by the government to be completed by July, a timescale the Defence Committee, analysts, lawmakers and others all said was too quick. Johnson first signaled his intention to slow down work on the review in a letter to Ellwood and two other committee chair dated March 24. “We have diverted resources from across Government and the Civil Service to work on COVID-19, scaling back efforts on the Integrated Review,” Johnson said at the time. Quizzed last month by parliamentarians about a possible delay to the review, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said the government was open-minded about putting the work on hold. “There is no ideological block or determination to carry on come what may," Wallace said then. “With this coronavirus growing, if it is the right thing to do, we will absolutely pause the review if necessary; if not, we shall move forward.” Jon Louth, an independent defense analyst, believes the government may have to start the review process over again, given the changing circumstances. “I think we are close to going back to square one, if the budget settlement for defense is to be unpicked and secured as part of a late Autumn or Spring [2021] government-wide spending review,” he said. “Who could have any confidence in what the defense equipment program funding settlement would actually be? It could involve unpacking current contracts, but also unpick some of the ambition we have in terms of new things. “What we have and what we would like are going to be colored by a budget settlement smaller than people were anticipating; in fact, quite substantially smaller. Whether that means the MoD starts to think about reprofiling things to the right or really starts taking strategic choices, we will have to wait and see,” added Louth, who until recently was a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/04/15/uk-hits-pause-on-defense-review-due-to-coronavirus/

Martijn Rasser There's no question the post-corona world will be very different. How it will look depends on actions the world's leaders take. Decisions made in coming months will determine whether we see a renewed commitment to a rules-based international order, or a fragmented world increasingly dominated by authoritarianism. Whomever steps up to lead will drive the outcome. China seeks the mantle of global leadership. Beijing is exploiting the global leadership vacuum, the fissures between the United States and its allies, and the growing strain on European unity. The Chinese Communist Party has aggressively pushed a narrative of acting swiftly and decisively to contain the virus, building goodwill through ‘mask diplomacy', and sowing doubts about the virus' origin to deflect blame for the magnitude of the crisis and to rewrite history. Even though the results so far are mixed, the absence of the United States on the global stage provides Beijing with good momentum. Before the pandemic, the world's democracies already faced their gravest challenge in decades: the shift of economic power to illiberal states. By late 2019, autocratic regimes accounted for a larger share of global GDP than democracies for the first time since 1900. As former U.K. foreign secretary David Miliband recently observed, “liberal democracy is in retreat.” How the United States and like-minded partners respond post-pandemic will determine if that trend holds. There is urgency to act — the problem is now even more acute. The countries that figure out how to quickly restart and rebuild their economies post-pandemic will set the course for the 21st century. It is not only economic heft that is of concern: political power and military might go hand in hand with economic dominance. At the center of this geostrategic and economic competition are technologies — artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and 5G — that will be the backbone of the 21st century economy. Leadership and ongoing innovation in these areas will confer critical economic, political, and military power, and the opportunity to shape global norms and values. The pre-crisis trajectory of waning clout in technology development, standards-setting, and proliferation posed an unacceptable and avoidable challenge to the interests of the world's leading liberal-democratic states. The current crisis accentuates this even more: it lays bare the need to rethink and restructure global supply chains; the imperative of ensuring telecommunication networks are secure, robust, and resilient; the ability to surge production of critical materiel, and the need to deter and counteract destructive disinformation. This is difficult and costly — and it is best done in concert. Bold action is needed to set a new course that enhances the ability of the world's democracies to out-compete increasingly capable illiberal states. The growing clout of authoritarian regimes is not rooted in better strategy or more effective statecraft. Rather, it lies in the fractious and complacent nature of the world's democracies and leading technology powers. In response, a new multilateral effort — an alliance framework — is needed to reverse these trends. The world's technology and democracy leaders — the G7 members and countries like Australia, the Netherlands, and South Korea — should join forces to tackle matters of technology policy. The purpose of this initiative is three-fold: one, regain the initiative in the global technology competition through strengthened cooperation between like-minded countries; two, protect and preserve key areas of competitive technological advantage; and three, promote collective norms and values around the use of emerging technologies. Such cooperation is vital to effectively deal with the hardest geopolitical issues that increasingly center on technology, from competing economically to building deterrence to combating disinformation. This group should not be an exclusive club: it should also work with countries like Finland and Sweden to align policies on telecommunications; Estonia, Israel, and New Zealand for cyber issues; and states around the world to craft efforts to counter the proliferation of Chinese surveillance technology and offer sound alternatives to infrastructure development, raw material extraction, and loans from China that erode their sovereignty. The spectrum of scale and ambition this alliance can tackle is broad. Better information sharing would yield benefits on matters like investment screening, counterespionage, and fighting disinformation. Investments in new semiconductor fabs could create more secure and diverse supply chains. A concerted effort to promote open architecture in 5G could usher in a paradigm shift for an entire industry. Collaboration will also be essential to avoiding another pandemic calamity. Similar ideas are percolating among current and former government leaders in capitals such as Tokyo, Berlin, London, and Washington, with thought leaders like Jared Cohen and Anja Manuel, and in think tanks around the world. The task at hand is to collate these ideas, find the common ground, and devise an executable plan. This requires tackling issues like organizational structure, governance, and institutionalization. It also requires making sure that stakeholders from government, industry, and civil society from around the world provide input to make the alliance framework realistic and successful. No one country can expect to achieve its full potential by going it alone, not even the United States. An alliance framework for technology policy is the best way to ensure that the world's democracies can effectively compete economically, politically, and militarily in the 21st century. The links between the world's leading democracies remain strong despite the challenges of the current crisis. These relationships are an enduring and critical advantage that no autocratic country can match. It is time to capitalize on these strengths, retake the initiative, and shape the post-corona world. Martijn Rasser is a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. https://www.c4isrnet.com/opinion/2020/04/14/technology-alliances-will-help-shape-our-post-pandemic-future/

Par Michel Cabirol La ministre des Armées estime que son ministère aura un "rôle particulier à jouer lorsqu'il s'agira de relancer l'économie française". Pour l'heure, le budget des armées est épargné. C'est une première indication. Et elle est positive pour les armées et l'industrie de défense française. "Lorsque nous examinerons le prochain budget, je ne doute pas que certains de nos crédits de paiements auront augmenté, afin d'amplifier la relance", a assuré le 10 avril la ministre des Armées Florence Parly lors de son audition au Sénat. Premier investisseur de l'État, le ministère des armées aura "un rôle particulier à jouer lorsqu'il s'agira de relancer l'économie française", a-t-elle expliqué. close volume_off Le ministère dispose, dans le cadre du programme 146 (Equipements militaires), "de moyens importants pour faire travailler aussi bien nos grandes industries de défense que le tissu de PME qui les entourent", a fait valoir Florence Parly. Car compte tenu de la récession qui s'annonce, le ministère des armées sera "un acteur clef, avec une responsabilité particulière", a-t-elle insisté. Interrogés par La Tribune, certains industriels de l'armement ne demandent ni plus, ni moins que le respect de la LPM (Loi de programmation militaire). Et ils rappellent que cette industrie produit 100% "Made in France" ou presque. L'industrie au service des armées Le ministère des Armées a demandé dès le début de la crise du Covid-19 aux industriels de la défense de maintenir leurs activités industrielles indispensables aux forces armées pour qu'elles poursuivent leurs missions. Florence Parly l'a redit vendredi dernier : "La continuité de l'industrie de la défense est essentielle à nos opérations". En outre, elle a demandé au délégué général pour l'armement de porter "une attention spéciale à la trésorerie des PME, et de réduire les délais de paiement". Pour suivre au plus près la santé financière et économique de la base industrielle et technologique de défense, le ministère a dressé une cartographie précise de la situation des entreprises. Le ministère porte également une attention à ses nombreux fournisseurs. Dans ce cadre, elle a demandé à ce que toutes les factures de moins de 5.000 euros soient traitées selon une procédure accélérée. "Depuis le 20 mars, nous en avons payé 22.000, pour un montant de 23 millions d'euros, a souligné Florence Parly. Hier, à Metz, la personne en charge de cette procédure m'a dit que 1.500 des 2.000 factures qui étaient en stock au début de la crise ont été réglées en quelques jours. Les équipes de la direction générale des finances publiques se montrent très réactives et assurent rapidement le paiement final". Le budget des armées pour l'heure épargné Pour l'heure, le ministère est épargné au niveau budgétaire. Le premier projet de loi finances rectificative (PLFR), adopté il y a quelques jours, "n'a aucun impact sur le budget de mon ministère, a affirmé la ministre. Le second, qui sera présenté au prochain conseil des ministres, ne l'affectera pas davantage". En outre, a-t-elle souligné, "nous veillerons à ce que les réflexions sur le système de santé publique prennent en compte le service de santé des armées". D'une façon générale, il est "un peu tôt pour parler du coût de l'opération Résilience (notamment sur le programme 146, ndlr), d'autant qu'il faudra apprécier l'impact de cette crise sur le budget global des armées : certaines activités ont été moins importantes que prévu, aussi". https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/armees-florence-parly-compte-sur-une-hausse-de-ses-credits-pour-relancer-l-industrie-francaise-845282.html

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Nathan Strout This summer, the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate is hosting an event where owners and operators of critical infrastructure, manufacturers of commercial GPS receivers, and civil industry stakeholders can see how their equipment holds up under a spoofing attack. “Accurate and precise position, navigation, and timing (PNT) information is vital to the nation's critical infrastructure,” said Bill Bryan, the senior official performing the duties of the undersecretary for science and technology. “[The Science and Technology Directorate] established this program to assess GPS vulnerabilities, advance research and development, and to enhance outreach and engagement with industry. The objective is to improve the security and resiliency of critical infrastructure.” Slated for this summer, the 2020 GPS Equipment Testing for Critical Infrastructure event will be the third of its type hosted by DHS that allows parties to test their equipment against GPS spoofing in unique live-sky environments. This event will focus mainly on fixed infrastructure applications, though there will be some support for testing ground-based mobile applications. There are no registration fees for participants, and interested parties have until April 24 to sign up. Though originally developed as a military tool, GPS technology has become a constant presence in civilian life over the decades, enabling agriculture, telecommunications, financial services, weather forecasting, the electrical grid and more. An RTI International report released last year estimated that a 30-day GPS outage could result in economic losses to the tune of $35-45 billion. U.S. adversaries are well aware of the country's reliance on GPS, both in the civilian world and by the military, and they have developed tools to degrade, deny or spoof that signal. In recent months, the U.S. government has raised concerns that relying solely on GPS for PNT data leaves the nation's critical infrastructure vulnerable to attack. To help address this, President Donald Trump signed an executive order Feb. 12 calling for the U.S. to develop alternative sources of PNT data that can supplement or replace the GPS signal, should it become unreliable. Under that executive order, the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy will be developing PNT services independent of GPS and other global navigation satellite systems, while at the same time working to increase the resiliency of critical infrastructure by having them incorporate multiple PNT sources. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/04/09/is-your-gps-equipment-vulnerable-to-spoofing-the-government-wants-to-test-it/

By: Sophia Becker , Christian Mölling , and Torben Schütz The global fight against COVID-19 has devastating economic consequences which might soon be felt in the defense sector. First estimates by OECD and national institutions conclude that the initial economic impact of the measures to fight the virus will by far exceed that of the 2008 financial crisis. The severe socio-economic consequences may tempt European governments to prioritize immediate economic relief over long-term strategic security and defense considerations. The good news is: there is no automatism – it remains fundamentally a political decision. If European governments do decide to slash defense spending as a result of the current crisis, it would be the second major hit within a decade. Defense budgets have only just begun to recover towards pre-2008 crisis levels, though capabilities have not. Nationally, as well as on an EU and NATO level, significant gaps still exist. European armies have lost roughly one-third of their capabilities over the last two decades. At the same time, the threat environment has intensified with an openly hostile Russia and a rising China. With European defense budgets under pressure, the United States might see any effort to balance burden-sharing among allies fall apart. A militarily weak Europe would be no help against competitors either. The US should work with allies now to maintain NATO's capabilities. Improve coordination to avoid past mistakes Europe's cardinal mistake from the last crisis was uncoordinated national defense cuts instead of harmonized European decisions. In light of the looming budget crisis, governments could be tempted to react the same way. This would be the second round of cuts within a decade, leaving not many capabilities to pool within NATO. If domestic priorities trump considerations about procurement of equipment for the maintenance and generation of military capabilities the system-wide repercussions would be severe. NATO defense, as well as the tightly knit industrial network in Europe, will suffer. Capabilities that can only be generated or sustained multinationally – like effective air defense, strategic air transport or naval strike groups - could become even more fragile; some critical ones may even disappear. If Europeans cut back on capabilities like anti-submarine warfare, armored vehicles of all sorts and mine-warfare equipment again, they could endanger the military capacity of nearly all allies. Ten years ago, such capabilities for large-scale and conventional warfare seemed rather superfluous, but today NATO needs them more than ever. This outcome should be avoided at all costs, because rebuilding those critical forces would be a considerable resource investment and could take years. Europe would become an even less effective military actor and partner to the US, resulting in more discord about burden-sharing. Uncoordinated cuts would also affect the defense industry, as development and procurement programs would be delayed or cancelled altogether – hitting both European and American companies. Moreover, their ability to increase efficiency through transnational mergers and acquisitions and economies of scale is limited due to continued national sentiments in Europe. Companies might decide to either aggressively internationalize, including massive increase of defense exports, or leave the market as national armed forces as otherwise reliable clients drop out. Technological innovation would suffer from a shrinking defense industrial ecosystem and duplicated national research and development efforts, risking the foundation of security for the next generation of defense solutions. To safeguard NATO's strategic autonomy, lean on lead nations In order to prevent the loss of critical capabilities and infrastructure within NATO, the US should immediately start working with its European partners to preemptively plan for increasingly tight budgets. NATO should take stock of existing capabilities and offer alternatives for consolidation. Based on a coordinated effort to redefine NATO's level of ambition and priorities, it should offer plans for maintaining the military capacity to act while retiring unnecessary and outdated resources. Such a coordinated effort should include close cooperation with the European Union. Building on the NATO Framework Nations Concept, the United States should work with a network of larger member states, better equipped to weather the economic shock of the current crisis, to act as lead nations. These countries could safeguard critical defense capabilities and provide a foundation of essential forces, enabling smaller partners to attach their specialized capabilities. Such an arrangement allows for a comparatively good balance of financial strain and retention of military capacity. Additionally, NATO should look beyond the conventional military domain and build on lessons learned from hybrid warfare and foreign influence operations against Europe. The way ahead is clear: As ambitions for European strategic autonomy become wishful thinking in light of the current crisis, allies should focus on retaining NATO's strategic autonomy as a whole. For the foreseeable future, both sides of the Atlantic have to live by one motto: NATO first! The authors are analysts at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/04/09/the-coronavirus-threatens-nato-lets-move-to-protect-the-alliance/