La Russie devient le deuxième producteur d’armes au monde

Sur le même sujet

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  14 mai 2024 | International, Naval

  UK Navy to buy six vessels, enters new ‘golden age’ of shipbuilding

  The country also plans to give its future frigates the ability to attack land-based targets.

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  6 juillet 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

  Opinion: Why Interest On Federal Debt Matters For Defense

  Byron Callan June 30, 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has stoked consternation that U.S. defense spending is going to be significantly pressured in the 2020s. Congress will likely stick to the $740.5 billion defense discretionary top line agreed to in last year's budget deal for fiscal 2021. But the combination of trillions more in federal debt from higher spending and lower tax receipts this year and next and the probability that there will be future federal spending to better prepare for pandemics raise a higher probability of defense spending pressure. “Flat” was already the new “up,” but “flat” now may be a budget that does not keep pace with annual inflation. The fears may be that defense spending will decline in the 2020s after a couple of good years of largesse from Congress and the White House. Despite trillions in additional deficits and federal borrowing in 2020-21, there is one bright spot that indicates less dire defense spending pressures than now perceived—the interest on the federal debt. U.S. federal debt is comprised of debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt, which is owned by different federal trust funds, the largest of which is Social Security. As of May, total debt held by the public was $19.8 trillion, and intragovernmental debt was another $6 trillion. Often, these two sums are lumped together, but they should be treated separately. The interest paid on debt held by the public is dispersed by the Treasury in the form of outlays to the owners of that debt. The interest paid on intragovernmental debt is, in essence, interest the federal government pays itself. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB), in its annual projections of outlays, breaks out these two components of interest outlays to show net interest outlays. This is mandatory spending, and so it has been paid along with the other mandatory and discretionary funding the U.S. federal government provides. One of the silver linings of the pandemic has been the Federal Reserve's aggressive lowering of interest rates. This makes federal debt more affordable, much in the way that a lower interest rate on a home mortgage can make a place to live more affordable. The OMB projections released in February showed net interest outlays of $378 billion for fiscal 2021 rising to $665 billion by 2030. One could take issue with the deficit projections behind these outlay projects, as they may have rested on GDP growth expectations that were too optimistic and nondefense spending cuts that were not going to be realized. However, dividing interest outlays on debt held by the public by debt projections implied an interest rate of 3% or more over the forecast period. The pandemic has trashed those rate projections. Federal debt held by the public is offered in different maturities. Treasury bills, which mature in a year or less as of May, were 23% of the total debt held by the public. Treasury notes that mature in 1-10 years were 51%, and bonds that mature in 10-30 years were 12%. (There is another 10% of other Treasury instruments.) Rates now are much lower, although clearly that would only matter for new debt that is issued by the Treasury. The rate on a 90-day Treasury bill is currently 0.13%. On a five-year note, it is 0.33%, and on the 10-year note, 0.69%. The 30-year note rate is 1.4%. This implies that interest outlay projections should be declining, although new projections may have to wait until the White House releases its 2022 fiscal budget request and out-year projections, presumably in February-March 2021. Net interest outlays could be at least $100 billion less in 2022-23 than the February 2020 projections on higher debt but lower rates. In the scheme of total federal outlays, which the OMB projected to be $4.8 trillion for 2021, $100 billion is not a lot, but it indicates there is a bit more headroom for defense spending and other nondefense discretionary spending than a focus on federal debt alone might suggest. Federal infrastructure spending could be one area of more traction in the 2020s, and the issue of social justice may also spur more demand for federal resources. One outcome of the pandemic, however, will be to make defense expectations more sensitive to interest rate expectations. It is not too difficult to project scenarios with rising debt and interest rates that increase to more “normal” levels. The pandemic also underscores that the unthinkable should be given a bit more room on long-term projections. It is quite conceivable that a major military conflict, a massive natural disaster or another economic contraction could further add to federal debt in the 2020s. https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/opinion-why-interest-federal-debt-matters-defense

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  1 février 2021 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

  Is Russia’s defense industry too busy to take on another fighter jet project?

  By: Alexander Bratersky MOSCOW — Rostec announced this week it has begun developing the MiG-41, a fifth-generation fighter jet set to replace Russia's MiG-31 jets currently in service. However, amid a number of other ongoing military aerospace projects, experts are questioning whether industry has the resources to produce the aircraft by its deadline of 2030. The MiG-31 fleet entered service in 1980 under the Soviet Armed Forces and was upgraded in 1990 to become the MiG-31BM. The MiG-41, originally developed by Rostec subsidiary United Aircraft Corporation, has long been expected to replace the aging jets. Work on the new aircraft started in 2010 with UAC's Mikoyan design bureau and Sokol aviation production plant, based in Nizhny Novgorod, about six hours' drive from Moscow. According to Russian news reports, the MiG-41 will be equipped with stealth technology, reach a speed of Mach 4-4.3, carry anti-satellite missiles, and be able to perform tasks in Arctic and near-space environments. If it enters service, the MiG-41 will be the country's second fifth-generation fighter after the Su-57, which was developed by UAC subsidiary Sukhoi Company and had its first flight test in 2010. The Su-57 crashed during a flight test in December 2019. The pilot has survived, leaving the plane on the catapult chair. Defense officials told the Vedomosti newspaper at that time that technical mishaps in the control system might have caused the accident. A governmental commission was founded to investigate the accident, but no public report was realized. That same year, the Russian military bought 76 Su-57 planes. The cost of a single Su-57 might be about 3 billion roubles (U.S. $40 million), Izvestia reported that year, citing defense sources. The plane is equipped with the AL-41F1 engine, which is also used on the Su-35 jet. However, the local Lyulka Design Bureau is currently developing a new engine for the Su-57. According to Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, the primary focus of Russia's defense industry is to develop that engine. That main effort takes away much-needed resources for the new plane, he explained. A London-based analyst echoed Pukhov's concerns, expressing skepticism that Russia “will be able to develop, manufacture and introduce into service [the jet] in anything like the purported time frame.” Douglas Barrie, who focuses military aerospace for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia's aerospace sector is already committed to numerous projects, including further developing the Su-75, upgrading the Su-34, and modernizing various bombers such as the Tu-160 Blackjack, Tu-22M Backfire and Tu-95. “Some would argue that the sector has already more than enough to try to manage without the additional or a project potentially as complex as a new heavy interceptor, or indeed whether there would be realistic levels of funding for a program,” he said. Defense News contacted the Russian Aircraft Corporation, a subsidiary of UAC involved in the MiG-41 project, but the firm declined to comment on the jet's development. For his part, Pukhov thinks the government should ditch its costly projects and instead appropriate funds to develop drones. “This is the sphere where Russia is still behind,” he said. He added that both China and India will likely want to cooperate on the MiG-41. The latter left a joint project to develop a fifth-generation fighter aircraft based on the Su-57 in 2018. But Barrie questioned the export potential of the MiG-41, saying the number of similar jets being built elsewhere is rapidly growing. “Even if such an aircraft were eventually to be developed, it would — were it to meet the same role as the MiG-31BM Foxhound C — have a very limited export appeal.” https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/01/29/is-russias-defense-industry-too-busy-to-take-on-another-fighter-jet-project