Lockheed Seeks Options As F-35 Cost Pressure Rises

Steve Trimble

ORLANDO, Florida—Lockheed Martin sees Poland's defense industry as a potential low-cost manufacturing source for the F-35 program, as “upward pressure” continues to grow on aircraft prices beyond Lot 14 partly due to the loss of Turkey as a low-cost manufacturing source.

“Poland is a new opportunity to provide higher quality and lower cost,” said Greg Ulmer, Lockheed's vice president and general manager of the F-35, speaking to journalists at the Air Warfare Symposium here.

Last month, Poland signed an order to buy 32 F-35As from production lots 16-23. The acquisition helps the NATO member that shares a border with Russia to replace its remaining fleet of Soviet-era fighters. But the deal also opens a new industrial source for the overall program.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-led Joint Program Office is still working out procedures for finally expelling Turkey from the F-35 supply chain. A decision by Ankara last July to accept deliveries of Russian S-400 air defense systems prompted the U.S. government to cancel Turkey's remaining F-35 orders and suspend the country from participating in the program. An executive steering group is continuing to finalize plans to expel Turkey's companies, Ulmer said.

The loss of Turkey's industrial base comes as the F-35 production system enters a transition period. After annual output more than doubled to 134 aircraft in 2019 from 66 in 2017, the pace of growth is slowing, with about 170 deliveries expected by 2023 as upgraded Lot 15 jets roll off the assembly line. The production ramp-up helped Lockheed dramatically lower prices, with F-35As from Lot 14 delivered in 2022 projected to cost $78.9 million each.

As the pace of the ramp-up slows, Lockheed is starting to see “upward pressure” on recurring procurement costs after Lot 14, Ulmer said. A request for proposals sent by the U.S. program office to Lockheed recently for Lot 15 includes a greater variance between guaranteed orders and priced options than the company has seen before, Ulmer said. The minimum number would decline in annual production after Lot 14, he said, and the maximum could increase deliveries.

The insertion in Lot 15 of Technical Refresh 3 upgrades under the Block 4 modernization program should not change recurring production costs, Ulmer added. The upgrades, which include a new integrated core processor, panoramic cockpit display and additional computer memory, should be a “cost neutral” upgrade, Ulmer said.

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