7 octobre 2020 | Local, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité, Autre défense
This story is part of a five-part series looking at how the policies of the two U.S. presidential candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, differ when it comes to the major issues of interest to Canada, including energy, defence, trade and immigration.
The old truism that elections have consequences is doubly apt for the United States, a country whose politics reach beyond its borders. It's certainly so for Canada.
Specific policy issues in a U.S. election hold particular stakes for Canada, including energy and the environment, national defence, the border and migration and U.S. relations with China.
In advance of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3, CBC will run stories on these five issues, and how they might play out if the winner is current President Donald Trump or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.
Our first instalment examines one of the most striking differences between them: energy and the environment.
Biden drew attention in Canada for promising to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta, then doubling down on it.
Rory Johnston, an energy analyst at Price Street in Toronto, said a president clearly has the legal power to revoke a permit. What's not clear to him is whether Biden would, in precarious economic times, actually cancel a big project, which would cost jobs and anger construction unions.
The Democratic nominee has a sweeping environmental platform that goes far beyond that one pipeline pledge.
For starters, he said he'd re-join the Paris climate accord on Day 1 of his presidency. Then he would convene, shame and potentially punish other countries that slack on their carbon emissions commitments.
Within 100 days, Biden said he'd hold a global climate summit to push countries to join the U.S. in toughening their climate objectives. He said he would also demand a worldwide ban on government subsidies for fossil fuels.
Biden also intends to grade countries on their performance. He promises a global climate change report, similar to the State Department's annual report on human rights and human trafficking. It would rank countries' performance in meeting their Paris commitments.
If that doesn't work, he's threatening to wield the stick of trade tariffs. Biden said he wants to impose what he calls "carbon-adjustment fees," or perhaps quotas, on carbon-intensive products from countries that fail to meet climate and environmental obligations.
It's not clear how many countries Biden would target. "We can no longer separate trade policy from our climate objectives," says Biden's platform.
Canada is projecting a lowering of emissions but not nearly by enough to meet its Paris commitment.
Implementing such a tariff could be tricky. To become embedded in U.S. law, it would have to get through Congress — and receiving the 51 to 60 per cent of votes required in the Senate would be a tall order.
Some trade analysts believe such a tactic would also be illegal protectionism under international trade law unless the U.S. imposed a similar carbon tax domestically — also a tall order.
However, other analysts say there's one tool Biden could use, which has become famous in the Trump era: declare carbon emissions a national security matter and apply the same trade weapon the current president used against foreign steel and aluminum.
Any regulatory moves could face another hurdle in a more hostile Supreme Court.
Speaking of the environment and trade, Biden is proposing a massive, $2 trillion green-infrastructure plan aimed at new transit, vehicles and a carbon-free power grid by 2035. Biden says the construction would be done by U.S. firms under Buy American rules.
He would also re-establish policies from the Obama era that Canada has signed onto, from methane and auto regulations to an Arctic drilling ban.
Gerald Butts, who was a former senior aide to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and worked on some of those agreements with the U.S, said Biden's climate policies go far beyond Obama's and reflect a growing recognition of the environmental threat.
"Biden's plan would have been unthinkable for a presidential nominee for a major party even one cycle ago," said Butts, now vice-chair of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
Bob Deans, a spokesman for the political action committee of the Washington-based Natural Resources Defence Council, called climate change a defining issue for this election.
"The American people are facing a stark choice in this election. Two completely different energy futures," Deans said. "We need to be reducing our reliance on oil and gas, not locking future generations into this climate nightmare."
In his 2016 platform, Trump promised more oil drilling, more pipelines — and less regulation. He delivered that on several fronts.
Just last month he announced a border permit for a multi-purpose rail project that, if built, could eventually ship Canadian oil through Alaska.
Trump ditched a number of Obama's climate rules, and left the Paris Accord. (His pullout from the Paris agreement officially goes into effect the day after this year's election.)
Trump hasn't published a platform for the next four years. His campaign website simply lists things he's done to slash regulations and promote fossil-fuel development. He's promising no major policy changes.
"We would continue what we're doing," Trump told The New York Times, when asked about his overall second-term plans.
As far as Canada is concerned, that means a continued commitment to the still-unbuilt Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry nearly one-fifth of the oil Canada exports to the U.S. each day.
Johnston said that pipeline isn't, on its own, a make-or-break issue for the Canadian oilpatch, but it would help, he said.
He said the oilsands likely need two pipelines completed over the next few years out of the three major projects underway — Trans Mountain to the Pacific Coast, the Line 3 expansion to the Great Lakes and Keystone XL to the Gulf of Mexico — to avoid the type of transportation bottlenecks that have previously devastated Canadian oil prices.
"It's never ideal to be just at the limit of your [transportation] capacity," Johnston said.
Even with the current president's support, Keystone XL faces challenges. The ground has been cleared for only 100 kilometres of pipe to be laid inside Canada. A border-crossing segment has been built, and 17 pump stations out of an eventual 36 along the route are under construction.
That leaves the project about two years, many hundreds of kilometres and some legal and regulatory fights shy of completion. A Supreme Court decision this summer allowed a Montana ruling to stand, which forced the pipeline company to get permits for crossing waterways. Permit hearings were scheduled for late September in Montana and North Dakota.
It's an uncertain moment for oil — and the financial stakes for Canada are considerable. It's Canada's top export to the U.S., in dollar figures; Canadian oil accounts for about half of U.S. oil imports, following years of growth.
But energy giant BP projects that global oil demand has peaked.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. imports will flatten out and even decline a bit. That's happening as several automakers say they will keep building vehicles to the stricter emissions standards set in California — standards that are backed by Ottawa.
California, the largest U.S. vehicle market, recently announced it planned to ban sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035.
Some of these changes in energy markets will proceed regardless of who's president.
Johnston's own projection? Barring a sudden change in the market, Canadian oil production will grow a bit for two to five years, then plateau at similar levels for decades.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-issues-canada-environment-1.5746288
1 décembre 2022 | Local, Aérospatial
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31 décembre 2018 | Local, Aérospatial
By BRUCE CAMPION-SMITH Ottawa Bureau OTTAWA—A new fighter jet “can't arrive quickly enough” for Canada's Air Force as it deals with aging CF-18s that are approaching the end of their useful life, the country's top military commander says. Gen. Jonathan Vance, the chief of defence staff, acknowledged that an old fighter and personnel shortages present challenges for the Air Force. “The F-18 is clearly an aircraft that is one that is coming to the end of its useful life. But it's not at the end,” Vance told the Star in a year-end interview. “I'm real keen to get the future fighter in place as quickly as possible. Until then we've got the F-18. We're going to have to invest in it to ensure that our aircrew, the RCAF, can continue to ... protect Canada and Canadians and be valued in operations,” he said. A recent report by the federal auditor general's office put the challenges facing the Air Force into stark focus with its findings that the CF-18s, first delivered in 1982, are increasingly obsolete. But more critically, the report said the bigger challenge was a shortage of technicians to maintain the 76 existing jets and pilots to fly them. Vance said the military is moving to address its personnel shortages. On the pilot front, the problem isn't attracting new recruits, he said. It's training them and then keeping them in uniform at a time when civilian airlines are dangling the promise of big paycheques and better quality of life. “I'm not going to lie to you. It's not going to be easy,” Vance said. “There's no way we're ever going to be able to compete with private industry. We never have. You don't join the military for the paycheque,” he said. But he said the Air Force is considering a number of measures, from better compensation and benefits to addressing complaints about postings and desk jobs that contribute to drive pilots from the ranks. Lt.-Gen. Al Meinzinger, RCAF commander, told the Commons public accounts committee in December that pilots quit because of family challenges, tempo of operations, work-life balance and geographic postings. “My assessment is that it's going to take us approximately five to seven years to grow the crew force. Again, a lot of the considerations are in the future. We have to stave off the attrition we're experiencing today. We're getting at that as a priority in terms of some of the retention ideas we have,” Meinzinger told the committee. A tortured procurement stretching over several governments, with several false starts, has delayed the purchase of new fighters, leaving the Air Force with the CF-18s, which require 24 hours of maintenance for every hour they fly. Jody Thomas, the deputy minister of defence, told the Commons public accounts committee in December the government now expects to release a request for proposals next spring with bids submitted in 2020 and a contract award in 2022. Under that timeline, deliveries of 88 new fighters would occur between 2025 and 2032. “We expect to achieve initial operating capability by 2026 with nine advanced fighters ready to fulfil the NORAD mission,” Thomas said. That still means the CF-18s have to remain airworthy and combat capable for up to 12 more years to help bridge the transition, a tall order for jets that are already three decades old. To help augment the fleet and spread the flying hours, the federal government has purchased 18 used F-18s from Australia. The first of those aircraft is expected to arrive late winter. They will require maintenance checks and some upgrades to make them compatible with existing fleet. National Defence expects to spend almost $3 billion to extend the life of its current fleet and to buy, operate and maintain the interim aircraft. The auditor general's report noted the CF-18 has not undergone any significant upgrade to its combat capabilities since 2008. That's because the Air Force thought they would be replaced. Now, analysis is underway on how best to upgrade some of the CF-18s as early as 2020 in the areas of sensors, weapons, self-protection and mission support capabilities. “Those capability upgrades are sufficient ... to keep the aircraft at an acceptable level of combat capability until the future fleet arrives,” Vance said. Bruce Campion-Smith is an Ottawa-based reporter covering national politics. Follow him on Twitter: @yowflier https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2018/12/21/new-fighter-jets-cant-arrive-quickly-enough-canadas-top-military-commander-says.html
14 mai 2018 | Local, Aérospatial
An avionics upgrade is required if the planes are to continue flying in North American airspace, but it is unclear at this point what other work will also be needed to be done on the aging aircraft. The 55-year-old planes used by the Canadian military's iconic Snowbirds aerobatic team will be kept flying until 2030. Aircraft avionics will be modernized on the CT-114 Tutors to comply with upcoming aviation regulations and the life of the aircraft extended for another 12 years, according to April 2018 Royal Canadian Air Force documents obtained by Postmedia. The avionics upgrade is required if the planes are to continue flying in North American airspace. It is unclear at this point what other work will also be needed to be done on the aging aircraft. No information was available on what the modernization program will cost taxpayers. The planes have been in the Canadian Forces inventory since 1963 and have been used by the Snowbirds since 1971. The Tutors were supposed to have been retired in 2010, but that date was extended to 2020. This latest initiative would see the aircraft removed from the flight line when they are 67 years old. Aerospace firms will be consulted about the life extension program over the next two years, according to the documents. A request for proposals will be issued in 2021, aerospace industry officials meeting in Ottawa last month were told. “It is anticipated that equipment ordered would begin to be delivered in 2022,” the RCAF confirmed in an email to Postmedia. “Ultimately, the goal of the CT-114 Tutor Aircraft life extension project is to allow the RCAF to continue its Air Demonstration mission to highlight the professionalism and capabilities of its airmen and airwomen.” The RCAF is facing a dilemma with replacing the aircraft used by the Snowbirds. The federal government has indicated it wants the aerobatic team to continue operating and the Snowbirds are seen as a key public relations tool for the military. But some in the Canadian Forces have privately questioned spending money on the Snowbirds because they do not directly contribute combat capabilities to the air force. The Tutors were originally used as jet trainers for the RCAF, but that role has been transferred to other aircraft. Various military documents obtained by Postmedia show the back-and-forth debate on what to do with the Tutors. Replacing the Tutors would be expensive. In 2012 the Canadian Forces estimated it would cost $755 million to buy a new fleet of planes for the aerobatic team, according to documents obtained by Postmedia through the Access to Information law. A current replacement cost was not available. In 2008, the Canadian Forces examined options for replacing the Tutors in either 2015 or 2020. But officials decided on the 2020 date because of concerns about the cost of purchasing new planes. “Although extending to the CT114 to 2020 will be technically challenging, overall it can be achieved with minimal risk and at significantly lower cost when compared against a new aircraft acquisition,” a briefing note for then Conservative Defence Minister Peter MacKay pointed out in November 2008. That conclusion, however, was in contrast to an earlier examination of the aircraft. “Due to obsolescence issues, in the 2010 time frame, the Tutor will no longer be a viable aircraft for the Snowbirds,” an April 2006 briefing note for then-air force commander Lt.-Gen. Steve Lucas pointed out. In the past, the air force also examined leasing aircraft for the Snowbirds. In addition it looked at, but rejected, a suggestion to substitute CF-18 fighter aircraft for the Tutors. Using CF-18s would increase the ability of the Snowbirds to perform around the world, but reduce their availability for smaller venues in Canada that have runways too short to accommodate the jets, the air force concluded. As well, the CF-18s would be 20 times more expensive to operate than the Tutors. Thousands of Canadians every year watch the team perform, and the Snowbirds are a fixture at Canada Day celebrations and air shows across the country. “The Snowbirds also contribute more than any other Canadian performer to the success and viability of the billion-dollar air-show industry in Canada and North America,” according to Department of National Defence documents. http://nationalpost.com/news/aircraft-used-by-snowbirds-aerobatic-team-on-the-go-since-1963-will-be-kept-flying-until-2030