October 7, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security, Other Defence

How the U.S. election outcome could affect Canada's environment and energy future

Biden, Trump have deep differences — and each could significantly impact Canada

This story is part of a five-part series looking at how the policies of the two U.S. presidential candidates, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, differ when it comes to the major issues of interest to Canada, including energy, defence, trade and immigration.

The old truism that elections have consequences is doubly apt for the United States, a country whose politics reach beyond its borders. It's certainly so for Canada.

Specific policy issues in a U.S. election hold particular stakes for Canada, including energy and the environment, national defence, the border and migration and U.S. relations with China.

In advance of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3, CBC will run stories on these five issues, and how they might play out if the winner is current President Donald Trump or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

Our first instalment examines one of the most striking differences between them: energy and the environment.

If Biden wins

Biden drew attention in Canada for promising to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline from Alberta, then doubling down on it.

Rory Johnston, an energy analyst at Price Street in Toronto, said a president clearly has the legal power to revoke a permit. What's not clear to him is whether Biden would, in precarious economic times, actually cancel a big project, which would cost jobs and anger construction unions.

The Democratic nominee has a sweeping environmental platform that goes far beyond that one pipeline pledge.

For starters, he said he'd re-join the Paris climate accord on Day 1 of his presidency. Then he would convene, shame and potentially punish other countries that slack on their carbon emissions commitments.

Within 100 days, Biden said he'd hold a global climate summit to push countries to join the U.S. in toughening their climate objectives. He said he would also demand a worldwide ban on government subsidies for fossil fuels.

INTERACTIVE
Will Biden or Trump be the U.S. president? These states will decide

Biden also intends to grade countries on their performance. He promises a global climate change report, similar to the State Department's annual report on human rights and human trafficking. It would rank countries' performance in meeting their Paris commitments.

If that doesn't work, he's threatening to wield the stick of trade tariffs. Biden said he wants to impose what he calls "carbon-adjustment fees," or perhaps quotas, on carbon-intensive products from countries that fail to meet climate and environmental obligations.

It's not clear how many countries Biden would target. "We can no longer separate trade policy from our climate objectives," says Biden's platform.

Canada is projecting a lowering of emissions but not nearly by enough to meet its Paris commitment.

Implementing such a tariff could be tricky. To become embedded in U.S. law, it would have to get through Congress — and receiving the 51 to 60 per cent of votes required in the Senate would be a tall order.

Some trade analysts believe such a tactic would also be illegal protectionism under international trade law unless the U.S. imposed a similar carbon tax domestically — also a tall order.

However, other analysts say there's one tool Biden could use, which has become famous in the Trump era: declare carbon emissions a national security matter and apply the same trade weapon the current president used against foreign steel and aluminum.

Any regulatory moves could face another hurdle in a more hostile Supreme Court.

Speaking of the environment and trade, Biden is proposing a massive, $2 trillion green-infrastructure plan aimed at new transit, vehicles and a carbon-free power grid by 2035. Biden says the construction would be done by U.S. firms under Buy American rules.

He would also re-establish policies from the Obama era that Canada has signed onto, from methane and auto regulations to an Arctic drilling ban.

Gerald Butts, who was a former senior aide to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and worked on some of those agreements with the U.S, said Biden's climate policies go far beyond Obama's and reflect a growing recognition of the environmental threat.

"Biden's plan would have been unthinkable for a presidential nominee for a major party even one cycle ago," said Butts, now vice-chair of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Bob Deans, a spokesman for the political action committee of the Washington-based Natural Resources Defence Council, called climate change a defining issue for this election.

"The American people are facing a stark choice in this election. Two completely different energy futures," Deans said. "We need to be reducing our reliance on oil and gas, not locking future generations into this climate nightmare."

If Trump wins

In his 2016 platform, Trump promised more oil drilling, more pipelines — and less regulation. He delivered that on several fronts.

Just last month he announced a border permit for a multi-purpose rail project that, if built, could eventually ship Canadian oil through Alaska.

Trump ditched a number of Obama's climate rules, and left the Paris Accord. (His pullout from the Paris agreement officially goes into effect the day after this year's election.)

Trump hasn't published a platform for the next four years. His campaign website simply lists things he's done to slash regulations and promote fossil-fuel development. He's promising no major policy changes.

"We would continue what we're doing," Trump told The New York Times, when asked about his overall second-term plans.

As far as Canada is concerned, that means a continued commitment to the still-unbuilt Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry nearly one-fifth of the oil Canada exports to the U.S. each day.

Johnston said that pipeline isn't, on its own, a make-or-break issue for the Canadian oilpatch, but it would help, he said.

He said the oilsands likely need two pipelines completed over the next few years out of the three major projects underway — Trans Mountain to the Pacific Coast, the Line 3 expansion to the Great Lakes and Keystone XL to the Gulf of Mexico — to avoid the type of transportation bottlenecks that have previously devastated Canadian oil prices.

"It's never ideal to be just at the limit of your [transportation] capacity," Johnston said.

Even with the current president's support, Keystone XL faces challenges. The ground has been cleared for only 100 kilometres of pipe to be laid inside Canada. A border-crossing segment has been built, and 17 pump stations out of an eventual 36 along the route are under construction.

That leaves the project about two years, many hundreds of kilometres and some legal and regulatory fights shy of completion. A Supreme Court decision this summer allowed a Montana ruling to stand, which forced the pipeline company to get permits for crossing waterways. Permit hearings were scheduled for late September in Montana and North Dakota.

It's an uncertain moment for oil — and the financial stakes for Canada are considerable. It's Canada's top export to the U.S., in dollar figures; Canadian oil accounts for about half of U.S. oil imports, following years of growth.

But energy giant BP projects that global oil demand has peaked.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects U.S. imports will flatten out and even decline a bit. That's happening as several automakers say they will keep building vehicles to the stricter emissions standards set in California — standards that are backed by Ottawa.

California, the largest U.S. vehicle market, recently announced it planned to ban sales of gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

Some of these changes in energy markets will proceed regardless of who's president.

Johnston's own projection? Barring a sudden change in the market, Canadian oil production will grow a bit for two to five years, then plateau at similar levels for decades.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-issues-canada-environment-1.5746288

On the same subject

October 20, 2017 | Local, Aerospace, C4ISR

Government of Canada Announces Successful Proposals for All Domain Situational Awareness Science & Technology Program
October 20, 2017 – Ottawa The All Domain Situational Awareness (ADSA) Science & Technology program will support the development of options, over a period of five years, for enhanced domain awareness of air, maritime surface and sub-surface approaches to Canada, in particular those in the Arctic. Surveillance solutions explored and selected through the ADSA Science & Technology program will strengthen the Government of Canada's ability to exercise sovereignty in the North, and will provide a greater awareness of safety and security issues, as well as transportation and commercial activity in Canada's Arctic. Canada's contributions to regional Arctic security also form a core part of the Canada-United States defence relationship. Nowhere is this more apparent than in joint efforts to renew the North Warning System (NWS) and modernize elements of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). As the security dynamics in the Arctic evolve, Canada and the United States will continue to work side by side to secure our shared northern air and maritime approaches. The NWS is a chain of unmanned radar stations in Canada's Arctic that provides aerospace surveillance of Canadian and United States northern approaches. While the current NWS is approaching the end of its life expectancy from a technological and functional perspective, the range of potential threats to the continent, such as those posed by cruise missiles, has become more complex and increasingly difficult to detect. To this end, Canada and the United States have already launched bilateral collaboration to seek innovative technological solutions to continental defence challenges including early warning. Studies are ongoing to determine how best to replace this important capability as part of the overall modernization of NORAD. The ADSA Science & Technology program is part of this bilateral collaboration. The following are the successful proposals from the first Call for Proposals: Title: Acoustic Source for Ocean Propagation Experimentation Supplier: GeoSpectrum Technologies Inc Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia Domain: Sub-Surface Surveillance Project Type: Technology Demonstration Funding: $4,953,038 (until 31 March 2020) GeoSpectrum Technologies Inc has been awarded a contract to develop, design, build and test an acoustic source which will support scientific experiments in underwater sound propagation. Such a device may form part of future systems capable of providing long distance underwater communications to support, for example, an unmanned underwater vehicle engaged in open ocean or under ice survey work. Title: Acoustic Array for Persistent Under-Ice Vehicles Supplier: GeoSpectrum Technologies Inc Location: Dartmouth, Nova Scotia Domain: Sub-Surface Surveillance Project Type: Research and Development Funding: $1,944,175 (until 20 September 2019) The objective of this project is to design and build a sensor array suitable for towing from an unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). The innovative design, employing a fishing line-like cable with acoustic sensors, may be suitable for year-round underwater and under-ice operations, in environmentally hostile Arctic waters. Title: Development of the Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Models (CHAIM) Supplier: University of New Brunswick Location: Fredericton, New Brunswick Domain: Air Surveillance Project Type: Research and Development Funding: $1,165,143 (until 31 March 2020) Current ionospheric models, used for prediction of radio wave propagation for communications and other applications, have significant shortcomings in Arctic regions. This is due to inaccuracies and limited local ionospheric observations. This project aims to improve this by producing high latitude electron density models at altitudes between 100 and 3,000 kilometres. Title: Bistatic High Elevation Long Endurance (HALE) Unmanned Air System (UAS) Scenario Study Supplier: C-CORE Location: Ottawa, Ontario Domain: Surface Surveillance Project Type: Study Funding: $221,000 (until 31 July 2018) This project is for the study of the potential capabilities of using a high altitude long endurance (HALE) unmanned air system (UAS) as a receiver in a bistatic configuration with commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) missions, both current and future. The study will look at how various configurations of transmitters and HALE UAS-mounted receivers can augment current detection and discrimination capabilities, while providing a highly mobile, persistent, all weather surveillance asset that currently does not exist. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2017/10/government_of_canadaannouncessuccessfulproposalsforalldomainsitu.html
January 28, 2021 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

We need your opinion !
Aéro Montréal is working with McGill University's Master of Management in Analytics (MMA) to improve the capabilities of the SDQuébec portal using artificial intelligence. A team of five McGill students are assessing the current status of the portal and developed a survey to collect information that will help with their assessment. This survey will be used to gather valuable insight on how we can enhance the user experience regarding the search engine tool already available on the portal. Answers are completely anonymous but if you have any questions please feel free to reach out to andrea.yzeiri@mail.mcgill.ca. https://freeonlinesurveys.com/s/mMR5i7pn#/0 The survey closes on February 5th, 2021 at 11:30pm EST. It only takes 5 minutes, many thanks in advance for your help !
November 12, 2020 | Local, Naval

Royal Canadian Navy to be Protected with Lockheed Martin's Advanced and Versatile SPY-7 Radar Under Newly Signed Contract
OTTAWA, ON, Nov. 10, 2020 /CNW/ - From humanitarian assistance to high-intensity conflicts, the Royal Canada Navy's future fleet will perform a wide range of missions requiring advanced technology and multi-role versatility. Lockheed Martin's latest generation SPY-7 radar and Canadian-developed Combat Management System (CMS 330) will form the backbone of the Canadian Surface Combatant. Under a contract awarded by Irving Shipbuilding Inc. in September 2020 for the SPY-7 radar system, CSC will have the capability to keep Canada's sailors safe and prepared in the face of modern threats. "We optimized the CSC ship design with this particular radar to ensure the Royal Canadian Navy can fulfill a variety of missions with its flexible architecture," commented Gary Fudge, vice president and general manager, Lockheed Martin Canada Rotary and Mission Systems. "Partnering with our teammates, Lockheed Martin Canada has also begun the technology transfer of selected components of the radar system to Canadian suppliers for design, construction and implementation. The work in Canada will open doors to a new export market for local industry, producing high value jobs in Quebec and across the country through subcontractors and suppliers involved in the production." Canada has secured the world's most versatile radar technology to deliver an integrated fire control system. SPY-7 is a modular and scalable solid-state radar that provides continuous surveillance, protection, and an exceptionally accurate threat picture to its operators. Its scalable, open architecture enables the flexibility to fulfill a variety of missions and expand its capabilities while its modularity provides for ease of maintenance at sea. With planned deployment on more than 24 platforms across four countries, SPY-7 leverages 50 years of continuous evolution and innovation of the U.S Navy's Aegis Combat System. Lockheed Martin has a trusted history of producing, integrating and delivering radars and combat management systems for land, air, undersea and sea-based mission sets. The core building block of the radar (called the "subarray suite") chosen to protect Canada has been directly leveraged from U.S. Government programs and investments. Spain has also selected SPY-7 for its future frigates and Japan has selected SPY-7 for continuous protection of its homeland. In addition to sustaining long-term, high-value jobs, this contract strengthens interoperability and partnership with the U.S. Navy and Royal Canadian Navy. Forming the backbone of Canada's future fleet, the SPY-7 radar and CMS 330 Combat Management System will support and protect the men and women of the Royal Canadian Navy for the next 40+ years. About Lockheed Martin Canada Headquartered in Ottawa, Lockheed Martin Canada is the Canadian unit of Lockheed Martin Corporation, a global security and aerospace company that employs some 110 000 people worldwide. Lockheed Martin Canada has been Canada's trusted defence partner for 80 years, specializing in the development, integration, and sustainment of advanced technology systems, products, and services. The company employs over 1000 employees at major facilities in Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax, Calgary, and Victoria, working on a wide range of major programs spanning the aerospace, defence, and commercial sectors. SOURCE Lockheed Martin https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/royal-canadian-navy-to-be-protected-with-lockheed-martin-s-advanced-and-versatile-spy-7-radar-under-newly-signed-contract-805682582.html

All news