19 décembre 2023 | Local, Aérospatial
Liberals told Boeing aircraft deal would mean few economic benefits for Canadian firms
Liberal government told selecting Boeing P-8 would be the least riskiest option but provide few economic benefits to Canada
19 mai 2020 | Local, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité
COVID-19 MAY WELL BE THE END OF THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES AS WE HAVE KNOWN THEM…AND OF OUR EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY
The lesson from this history is simple. Cutting defence spending in times of austerity is a bipartisan affair in Canada. This is owing less to politics than arithmetic. DND's budget –which typically ranges from 1/5 to 1/4 of total federal departmental discretionary spending –is too big to be excluded from any serious spending restraint initiative. This is well understood by Liberals, Conservatives and the Finance Department.
The COVID-19 Recession and its Impact
No one knows how deep or how long the COVID-19-induced recession will be. But every serious analyst agrees it will produce the sharpest drop in output since the Great Depression. The International Monetary Fund, for example, projects a 6.2 per cent annualized decline in GDP for Canada,1nearly double that of the 2009 recession. And already the government's fiscal response is without precedent and will lead to the largest deficit in postwar Canadian history (at least 10 per cent of GDP, or over $200 billion).
This does not mean that Ottawa will snap into austerity mode next year. The economy will likely be too weak for that kind of action and cutting government spending is not in the Trudeau government's DNA to begin with...
One big difference between now and the past is that there will be enormous pressure on Ottawa after the recession to boost spending in a wide range of areas which have been exposed in the pandemic. These include public health funding, medical research, pandemic prevention and mitigation, the social safety net, and industries particularly hard hit during the recession. There are also Liberal election campaign commitments from 2019 to honour –almost none of which had been implemented pre-pandemic –of which national defence is conspicuously absent.
...this could produce a perfect storm for Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). This was always a big risk associated with a defence policy that had its funding ramped up gradually over many years. As the Harper government amply demonstrated, it is relatively easy to reduce or eliminate the rate of planned increases to defence funding –the government took almost no flak for doing so in 2010. Making matters worse, DND has failed to come anywhere near meeting the spending trajectory profiled in SSE, as David Perry has analyzed thoroughly. Which means flattening DND's budget ramp is even more tempting for any government in austerity or even re-prioritization mode.
Would a change in government matter here? Unlikely. While the Conservatives are more committed to national defence and the Canadian Armed Forces than the Liberals, they would likely see deficit reduction as their top priority, and it is virtually impossible to have meaningful expenditure restraint that doesn't involve national defence [what the Harper government did from 2010 on].
Conclusion
Over the past generation, recessions and the fiscal consolidation that has followed them have had a seriously negative impact on DND's budget. The COVID-19 recession could be the most severe Canada has faced in at least 40 years. It has already resulted in the largest peacetime deficit in Canadian history. And, because of the pandemic, government priorities have changed radically overnight. The future for SSE and its associated funding does not look bright. National Defence probably has a year or two before the crunch hits. Now is therefore the time for strategic thinking and serious priority setting among the political, public service and miitary leadership to ensure that the 2020s don't become another decade of darkness.
Eugene Lang is Adjunct Professor, School of Policy Studies, Queen's University, and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He was chief of staff to two ministers of National Defence in the Chrétien and Martin governments and served as an official in the Department of Finance.
The 2020s most certainly will be “another decade of darkness”. It is not improbable that the Canadian military, if the Liberals win the next election, will effectively end up as a constabulary/militia force with domestic response to natural disasters of various sorts as its primary function along with very token commitments to UN peacekeeping missions. Bye bye to serious numbers of new RCAF fighters, to serious numbers of new RCN frigates, and to the needed large funding to renew NORAD's North Warning System [see this post: “So Will the Canadian Government Put Some Big Bucks into Modernizing NORAD's North Warning System?“]. And bye bye to any meaningful military participation in NATO.
Canada will then finally be defenceless against help from the US ( the following quote is from the last sentence of this earlier CGAI paper's Executive Summary: “Throughout its 60-year existence, NORAD has been Canada's “defence against help.”). Any American administration will have no hesitation in demanding the use of Canadian territory and waters for its own defence purposes if our efforts fall well below what the US thinks necessary. US Air Force bases at Cold Lake, Yellowknife, Goose Bay and a US Navy one at St. John's anyone?
Take a look at this as an example of an increasingly prevalent Canadian progressive view; and Justin Trudeau's “base” is progressive to the max:
Spending $19 billion on fighter jets won't fight COVID-19 or climate change
Instead of buying a new weapons system, the federal government should disarm and invest in a Green New Deal
There it is. Plus earlier from Mr Lang:
By the way the photo at the top of the post is of the Avro CF-100 Canuck interceptor, the first jet fighter developed in Canada–to defend against Soviet bombers...and US help.
Mark Collins
Sur le même sujet
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19 septembre 2019 | Local, Aérospatial
Bombardier livre le premier de trois avions d’affaires Global 6000 pour la flotte de la Luftwaffe
Bombardier livre le premier de trois avions d'affaires Global 6000 pour la flotte de la Luftwaffe L'avion long-courrier Global 6000 répondra aux besoins de transport diplomatiques et parlementaires allemands Offrant une fiabilité de premier ordre, une technologie de pointe et le vol en douceur emblématique de Bombardier, l'avion Global 6000 est idéal pour les missions gouvernementales et le transport de personnalités Bombardier doit livrer deux autres avions au gouvernement allemand en 2019 MONTRÉAL, 17 sept. 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Bombardier a fièrement livré le premier de trois avions d'affaires Global 6000 destinés à être utilisés par la Luftwaffe, les forces aériennes de l'Allemagne. La Luftwaffe, exploitant de longue date d'avions Bombardier, utilisera les biréacteurs d'affaires Global 6000 pour répondre aux besoins de transport des secteurs politiques et parlementaires. « Bombardier est ravie que la Luftwaffe ajoute l'avion Global 6000 à sa flotte », a déclaré David Coleal, président de Bombardier Aviation. « Notre équipe des Avions spécialisés a b'ti des relations de longue date avec des gouvernements du monde entier qui ont confiance en la sécurité et en la performance de nos produits. » La division des Avions spécialisés de Bombardier offre des solutions sur mesure aux exploitants, avec un portefeuille diversifié d'avions qui peuvent assurer les missions de transport aérien les plus exigeantes et les plus critiques en diverses configurations. Les avions Global de Bombardier sont particulièrement intéressants en raison de leur ponctualité de départ, de leur vitesse, de leur agilité et de leur endurance excellentes, ainsi que de leurs coûts d'exploitation optimisés. Propulsés par des moteurs BR710 de Rolls-Royce, développés et construits par Rolls-Royce Deutschland à Dahlewitz, en Allemagne, l'avion Global 6000 a suffisamment d'autonomie pour des vols sans escale intercontinentaux, ce qui est idéal pour les besoins de transport des secteurs politiques et parlementaires. L'avion Global 6000 assure également un vol en douceur qui réduit la fatigue des grands voyages, tant pour les passagers que pour l'équipage, tandis que son poste de pilotage évolué Bombardier Vision est doté d'un affichage tête haute avec la vision améliorée et la vision synthétique, ce qui permet une meilleure expérience de pilotage. La livraison de l'avion resserre les importants liens entre Bombardier et l'Allemagne, où l'avionneur est le principal fournisseur d'avions d'affaires. Bombardier Transport, chef de file mondial de l'industrie ferroviaire, a son siège social à Berlin. http://www.lesailesduquebec.com/bombardier-livre-le-premier-de-trois-avions-daffaires-global-6000-pour-la-flotte-de-la-luftwaffe/
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14 mai 2018 | Local, Aérospatial
Aircraft used by Snowbirds aerobatic team, on the go since 1963, will be kept flying until 2030
An avionics upgrade is required if the planes are to continue flying in North American airspace, but it is unclear at this point what other work will also be needed to be done on the aging aircraft. The 55-year-old planes used by the Canadian military's iconic Snowbirds aerobatic team will be kept flying until 2030. Aircraft avionics will be modernized on the CT-114 Tutors to comply with upcoming aviation regulations and the life of the aircraft extended for another 12 years, according to April 2018 Royal Canadian Air Force documents obtained by Postmedia. The avionics upgrade is required if the planes are to continue flying in North American airspace. It is unclear at this point what other work will also be needed to be done on the aging aircraft. No information was available on what the modernization program will cost taxpayers. The planes have been in the Canadian Forces inventory since 1963 and have been used by the Snowbirds since 1971. The Tutors were supposed to have been retired in 2010, but that date was extended to 2020. This latest initiative would see the aircraft removed from the flight line when they are 67 years old. Aerospace firms will be consulted about the life extension program over the next two years, according to the documents. A request for proposals will be issued in 2021, aerospace industry officials meeting in Ottawa last month were told. “It is anticipated that equipment ordered would begin to be delivered in 2022,” the RCAF confirmed in an email to Postmedia. “Ultimately, the goal of the CT-114 Tutor Aircraft life extension project is to allow the RCAF to continue its Air Demonstration mission to highlight the professionalism and capabilities of its airmen and airwomen.” The RCAF is facing a dilemma with replacing the aircraft used by the Snowbirds. The federal government has indicated it wants the aerobatic team to continue operating and the Snowbirds are seen as a key public relations tool for the military. But some in the Canadian Forces have privately questioned spending money on the Snowbirds because they do not directly contribute combat capabilities to the air force. The Tutors were originally used as jet trainers for the RCAF, but that role has been transferred to other aircraft. Various military documents obtained by Postmedia show the back-and-forth debate on what to do with the Tutors. Replacing the Tutors would be expensive. In 2012 the Canadian Forces estimated it would cost $755 million to buy a new fleet of planes for the aerobatic team, according to documents obtained by Postmedia through the Access to Information law. A current replacement cost was not available. In 2008, the Canadian Forces examined options for replacing the Tutors in either 2015 or 2020. But officials decided on the 2020 date because of concerns about the cost of purchasing new planes. “Although extending to the CT114 to 2020 will be technically challenging, overall it can be achieved with minimal risk and at significantly lower cost when compared against a new aircraft acquisition,” a briefing note for then Conservative Defence Minister Peter MacKay pointed out in November 2008. That conclusion, however, was in contrast to an earlier examination of the aircraft. “Due to obsolescence issues, in the 2010 time frame, the Tutor will no longer be a viable aircraft for the Snowbirds,” an April 2006 briefing note for then-air force commander Lt.-Gen. Steve Lucas pointed out. In the past, the air force also examined leasing aircraft for the Snowbirds. In addition it looked at, but rejected, a suggestion to substitute CF-18 fighter aircraft for the Tutors. Using CF-18s would increase the ability of the Snowbirds to perform around the world, but reduce their availability for smaller venues in Canada that have runways too short to accommodate the jets, the air force concluded. As well, the CF-18s would be 20 times more expensive to operate than the Tutors. Thousands of Canadians every year watch the team perform, and the Snowbirds are a fixture at Canada Day celebrations and air shows across the country. “The Snowbirds also contribute more than any other Canadian performer to the success and viability of the billion-dollar air-show industry in Canada and North America,” according to Department of National Defence documents. http://nationalpost.com/news/aircraft-used-by-snowbirds-aerobatic-team-on-the-go-since-1963-will-be-kept-flying-until-2030