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May 19, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

COVID-19 MAY WELL BE THE END OF THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES AS WE HAVE KNOWN THEM…AND OF OUR EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY

The lesson from this history is simple. Cutting defence spending in times of austerity is a bipartisan affair in Canada. This is owing less to politics than arithmetic. DND's budget –which typically ranges from 1/5 to 1/4 of total federal departmental discretionary spending –is too big to be excluded from any serious spending restraint initiative. This is well understood by Liberals, Conservatives and the Finance Department.

The COVID-19 Recession and its Impact

No one knows how deep or how long the COVID-19-induced recession will be. But every serious analyst agrees it will produce the sharpest drop in output since the Great Depression. The International Monetary Fund, for example, projects a 6.2 per cent annualized decline in GDP for Canada,1nearly double that of the 2009 recession. And already the government's fiscal response is without precedent and will lead to the largest deficit in postwar Canadian history (at least 10 per cent of GDP, or over $200 billion).

This does not mean that Ottawa will snap into austerity mode next year. The economy will likely be too weak for that kind of action and cutting government spending is not in the Trudeau government's DNA to begin with...

One big difference between now and the past is that there will be enormous pressure on Ottawa after the recession to boost spending in a wide range of areas which have been exposed in the pandemic. These include public health funding, medical research, pandemic prevention and mitigation, the social safety net, and industries particularly hard hit during the recession. There are also Liberal election campaign commitments from 2019 to honour –almost none of which had been implemented pre-pandemic –of which national defence is conspicuously absent.

...this could produce a perfect storm for Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). This was always a big risk associated with a defence policy that had its funding ramped up gradually over many years. As the Harper government amply demonstrated, it is relatively easy to reduce or eliminate the rate of planned increases to defence funding –the government took almost no flak for doing so in 2010. Making matters worse, DND has failed to come anywhere near meeting the spending trajectory profiled in SSE, as David Perry has analyzed thoroughly. Which means flattening DND's budget ramp is even more tempting for any government in austerity or even re-prioritization mode.

Would a change in government matter here? Unlikely. While the Conservatives are more committed to national defence and the Canadian Armed Forces than the Liberals, they would likely see deficit reduction as their top priority, and it is virtually impossible to have meaningful expenditure restraint that doesn't involve national defence [what the Harper government did from 2010 on].

Conclusion

Over the past generation, recessions and the fiscal consolidation that has followed them have had a seriously negative impact on DND's budget. The COVID-19 recession could be the most severe Canada has faced in at least 40 years. It has already resulted in the largest peacetime deficit in Canadian history. And, because of the pandemic, government priorities have changed radically overnight. The future for SSE and its associated funding does not look bright. National Defence probably has a year or two before the crunch hits. Now is therefore the time for strategic thinking and serious priority setting among the political, public service and miitary leadership to ensure that the 2020s don't become another decade of darkness.

Eugene Lang is Adjunct Professor, School of Policy Studies, Queen's University, and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He was chief of staff to two ministers of National Defence in the Chrétien and Martin governments and served as an official in the Department of Finance.

The 2020s most certainly will be “another decade of darkness”. It is not improbable that the Canadian military, if the Liberals win the next election, will effectively end up as a constabulary/militia force with domestic response to natural disasters of various sorts as its primary function along with very token commitments to UN peacekeeping missions. Bye bye to serious numbers of new RCAF fighters, to serious numbers of new RCN frigates, and to the needed large funding to renew NORAD's North Warning System [see this post: “So Will the Canadian Government Put Some Big Bucks into Modernizing NORAD's North Warning System?“]. And bye bye to any meaningful military participation in NATO.

Canada will then finally be defenceless against help from the US ( the following quote is from the last sentence of this earlier CGAI paper's Executive Summary: “Throughout its 60-year existence, NORAD has been Canada's “defence against help.”). Any American administration will have no hesitation in demanding the use of Canadian territory and waters for its own defence purposes if our efforts fall well below what the US thinks necessary. US Air Force bases at Cold Lake, Yellowknife, Goose Bay and a US Navy one at St. John's anyone?

Take a look at this as an example of an increasingly prevalent Canadian progressive view; and Justin Trudeau's “base” is progressive to the max:

Spending $19 billion on fighter jets won't fight COVID-19 or climate change

Instead of buying a new weapons system, the federal government should disarm and invest in a Green New Deal

There it is. Plus earlier from Mr Lang:

Is the “business Liberal” extinct?

By the way the photo at the top of the post is of the Avro CF-100 Canuck interceptor, the first jet fighter developed in Canada–to defend against Soviet bombers...and US help.

Mark Collins

On the same subject

  • Canada Announces Second Peacekeeping Smart Pledge - Will send Aviation Task Force to UN Mission in Mali

    March 20, 2018 | Local, Aerospace

    Canada Announces Second Peacekeeping Smart Pledge - Will send Aviation Task Force to UN Mission in Mali

    From National Defence March 19, 2018, Ottawa, ON — National Defence / Global Affairs Canada Canada is committed to building a more peaceful and prosperous world. Ensuring the safety and security of our citizens – and those of our allies – means working to confront instability and conflict around the world. Canada's support for United Nations peacekeeping will help vulnerable and marginalized communities build a better future for themselves. Last November, in Vancouver, the Government of Canada announced its return to peace operations, including: the Vancouver Principles – focused on ending the recruitment and use of child soldiers around the world; the Elsie Initiative – a pilot project aimed at rapidly increasing the number of women police and military deployed on UN peace operations, supported by the expertise and political commitment of a group of countries who share Canada's ambition for change; and a range of Smart Pledges and military capabilities – aimed at leveraging Canadian expertise. The first smart pledge – a C-130 Hercules aircraft to provide tactical airlift support for the UN's Regional Support Centre in Entebbe Uganda – was announced in Vancouver and preparations for deployment are currently underway. As part of Canada's return to peace operations, the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of National Defence, and the Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced the Government of Canada's second smart pledge: a commitment to deploy an Aviation Task Force to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) for a period of 12 months. The Aviation Task Force will include Chinook helicopters to provide urgently needed transport and logistics capacity for the MINUSMA mission, as well as Griffon helicopters to provide armed escort and protection. The Task Force will be accompanied by a number of Canadian Armed Forces personnel for support. Canada remains committed to advancing gender equality in its deployment. Canada's contribution will join 57 MINUSMA partner countries in their continued efforts to bring sustainable peace and stability to Mali and the Sahel. Today's announcement builds on the Government's significant development, peace and security initiatives in the region. In the coming days, the Government will register its pledge with the UN, and the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) will begin their planning process, in conjunction with the UN, partners and the host nation. Quotes “As a responsible member of the international community, we recognize the importance of working collaboratively with our partners to promote peace and security. Supported by our diplomatic negotiations, I am confident we can help make a real difference in this region through the deployment of the Aviation Task Force.” Minister of National Defence, Hon. Harjit S. Sajjan “Today's smart pledge is another way Canada is contributing its expertise to create a safer, more peaceful world. We are committed to improving the effectiveness of UN peace operations. We are doing this by working with partner countries to increase the meaningful participation of women, through the Elsie Initiative for Women in Peace Operations, implementing the Vancouver Principles to end the recruitment and use of child soldiers, and providing specialized training to meet the needs of the UN.” Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon. Chrystia Freeland, P.C., M.P Quick facts During the UN Peacekeeping Defence Ministerial conference hosted by Canada in Vancouver in November 2017, Canada pledged to improve the effectiveness of UN peace operations in a number of ways. Canada committed a number of “smart pledges” of high value military capabilities to be deployed in a 5-year timeframe with planned and predictable rotations with other member states. They are: a Quick Reaction Force and accompanying equipment; an Aviation Task Force of medium utility and armed helicopters; and a tactical airlift support to address critical gaps in the UN's ability to transport troops, equipment, and supplies to their missions. The Elsie Initiative for Peace Operations is a Canadian-led pilot project to test new ways of eliminating barriers to the participation of women police and military in peace operations. Canada will lead this search for a breakthrough, working closely with a Contact Group of countries who will bring their experiences, expertise and political commitment to the project. A tailored package of technical assistance and training will be offered to a select partner country (or two), and an innovative financial mechanism will be designed to incentivize progress among countries who contribute police and military to UN operations. Contacts Byrne Furlong Press Secretary Office of the Minister of National Defence Phone: 613-996-3100 Email: byrne.furlong@forces.gc.ca Media Relations Department of National Defence Phone: 613-996-2353 Email: mlo-blm@forces.gc.ca Adam Austen Press Secretary Office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Email: Adam.Austen@international.gc.ca Media Relations Office Global Affairs Canada Phone: 343-203-7700 Email: media@international.gc.ca https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/news/2018/03/canada-announces-second-peacekeeping-smart-pledge---will-send-aviation-task-force-to-un-mission-in.html

  • Canadian military investigating engine fires on U.S. Army Chinook helicopters

    September 1, 2022 | Local, Aerospace

    Canadian military investigating engine fires on U.S. Army Chinook helicopters

    OTTAWA — The Department of National Defence says officials are looking into reports of engine fires on Chinook helicopters in the U.S. to determine the impact…

  • First delivery of RCAF CC-295 could be delayed

    November 26, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

    First delivery of RCAF CC-295 could be delayed

    by Chris Thatcher Complications with the technical manuals for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) CC-295 search and rescue (SAR) aircraft could delay delivery of the first plane. Manufacturer Airbus Defence and Space unveiled the first C295W (CC-295 is its Canadian designation) in its distinctive RCAF search and rescue paint scheme in mid-October at its production facility in Seville, Spain, and was anticipating handover by the end of the year. While members of the SAR test and evaluation flight of 434 Operational Test and Evaluation Squadron have been in Seville since early fall to assess the aircraft and complete various flight and technical manuals, the Air Force has yet to accept the aircraft. “There have been challenges in the completion of the required technical manuals, which are required for all aspects of safe aircraft operation — from flying to maintenance,” the RCAF and assistant deputy minister (materiel), the military's acquisition branch, said in a statement. “Technical manuals are a critical component when it comes to the safe operation of any fleet. The safety of our aviators is simply not something we are willing to compromise on. We continue to collaborate with Airbus, prioritizing the work required in order to deliver the new search and rescue aircraft safely and effectively.” In a statement to CTV News, an Airbus spokesperson said, “Work on operational technical publications is under review to ensure these are tailored to the customer's requirements and additional time is required.” Airbus will deliver 16 of the twin-propeller CC-295 aircraft to replace the de Havilland CC-115 Buffalo and Lockheed Martin CC-130 Hercules used in a search and rescue role. Despite the delay, the RCAF is still expecting to bring the first aircraft to 19 Wing Comox. B.C., by April 2020. “While it is not yet known if this will cause a delay in final delivery, we remain optimistic that the supplier can work towards an acceptable solution so that our on-site testing and evaluations can be done prior to flying the first aircraft to Canada next spring, as previously planned,” said a spokesperson. In its statement to CTV, Airbus said it had been working “tirelessly to meet the demanding delivery milestones of the Canadian [fixed-wing search and rescue] FWSAR program and to date the company has successfully completed design, development, certification and manufacture of the aircraft, as well as the first stages establishing the program's support operations in Canada.” In addition to the first aircraft, six more CC-295s are in final assembly or completing flight test. Aircrew and maintainers with 418 Search and Rescue Operational Training Squadron, reactivated on July 11, 2019, began initial cadre training on the CC-295 at Airbus' facility in Spain in September. The aircraft will operate from four main bases in Comox, Winnipeg, Man., Trenton, Ont., and Greenwood, N.S. https://www.skiesmag.com/news/first-delivery-of-airbus-c295w-to-rcaf-could-be-delayed

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