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May 19, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

COVID-19 MAY WELL BE THE END OF THE CANADIAN ARMED FORCES AS WE HAVE KNOWN THEM…AND OF OUR EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY

The lesson from this history is simple. Cutting defence spending in times of austerity is a bipartisan affair in Canada. This is owing less to politics than arithmetic. DND's budget –which typically ranges from 1/5 to 1/4 of total federal departmental discretionary spending –is too big to be excluded from any serious spending restraint initiative. This is well understood by Liberals, Conservatives and the Finance Department.

The COVID-19 Recession and its Impact

No one knows how deep or how long the COVID-19-induced recession will be. But every serious analyst agrees it will produce the sharpest drop in output since the Great Depression. The International Monetary Fund, for example, projects a 6.2 per cent annualized decline in GDP for Canada,1nearly double that of the 2009 recession. And already the government's fiscal response is without precedent and will lead to the largest deficit in postwar Canadian history (at least 10 per cent of GDP, or over $200 billion).

This does not mean that Ottawa will snap into austerity mode next year. The economy will likely be too weak for that kind of action and cutting government spending is not in the Trudeau government's DNA to begin with...

One big difference between now and the past is that there will be enormous pressure on Ottawa after the recession to boost spending in a wide range of areas which have been exposed in the pandemic. These include public health funding, medical research, pandemic prevention and mitigation, the social safety net, and industries particularly hard hit during the recession. There are also Liberal election campaign commitments from 2019 to honour –almost none of which had been implemented pre-pandemic –of which national defence is conspicuously absent.

...this could produce a perfect storm for Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE). This was always a big risk associated with a defence policy that had its funding ramped up gradually over many years. As the Harper government amply demonstrated, it is relatively easy to reduce or eliminate the rate of planned increases to defence funding –the government took almost no flak for doing so in 2010. Making matters worse, DND has failed to come anywhere near meeting the spending trajectory profiled in SSE, as David Perry has analyzed thoroughly. Which means flattening DND's budget ramp is even more tempting for any government in austerity or even re-prioritization mode.

Would a change in government matter here? Unlikely. While the Conservatives are more committed to national defence and the Canadian Armed Forces than the Liberals, they would likely see deficit reduction as their top priority, and it is virtually impossible to have meaningful expenditure restraint that doesn't involve national defence [what the Harper government did from 2010 on].

Conclusion

Over the past generation, recessions and the fiscal consolidation that has followed them have had a seriously negative impact on DND's budget. The COVID-19 recession could be the most severe Canada has faced in at least 40 years. It has already resulted in the largest peacetime deficit in Canadian history. And, because of the pandemic, government priorities have changed radically overnight. The future for SSE and its associated funding does not look bright. National Defence probably has a year or two before the crunch hits. Now is therefore the time for strategic thinking and serious priority setting among the political, public service and miitary leadership to ensure that the 2020s don't become another decade of darkness.

Eugene Lang is Adjunct Professor, School of Policy Studies, Queen's University, and Fellow, Canadian Global Affairs Institute. He was chief of staff to two ministers of National Defence in the Chrétien and Martin governments and served as an official in the Department of Finance.

The 2020s most certainly will be “another decade of darkness”. It is not improbable that the Canadian military, if the Liberals win the next election, will effectively end up as a constabulary/militia force with domestic response to natural disasters of various sorts as its primary function along with very token commitments to UN peacekeeping missions. Bye bye to serious numbers of new RCAF fighters, to serious numbers of new RCN frigates, and to the needed large funding to renew NORAD's North Warning System [see this post: “So Will the Canadian Government Put Some Big Bucks into Modernizing NORAD's North Warning System?“]. And bye bye to any meaningful military participation in NATO.

Canada will then finally be defenceless against help from the US ( the following quote is from the last sentence of this earlier CGAI paper's Executive Summary: “Throughout its 60-year existence, NORAD has been Canada's “defence against help.”). Any American administration will have no hesitation in demanding the use of Canadian territory and waters for its own defence purposes if our efforts fall well below what the US thinks necessary. US Air Force bases at Cold Lake, Yellowknife, Goose Bay and a US Navy one at St. John's anyone?

Take a look at this as an example of an increasingly prevalent Canadian progressive view; and Justin Trudeau's “base” is progressive to the max:

Spending $19 billion on fighter jets won't fight COVID-19 or climate change

Instead of buying a new weapons system, the federal government should disarm and invest in a Green New Deal

There it is. Plus earlier from Mr Lang:

Is the “business Liberal” extinct?

By the way the photo at the top of the post is of the Avro CF-100 Canuck interceptor, the first jet fighter developed in Canada–to defend against Soviet bombers...and US help.

Mark Collins

On the same subject

  • A new Defence Procurement Agency – Would it solve anything?

    November 5, 2019 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    A new Defence Procurement Agency – Would it solve anything?

    By Brian Mersereau Defence Watch Guest Writer During the recent federal election, the issue of considering a new Defence Procurement Agency or DPA surfaced again. The Liberals made such an organization part of their defence platform this time around as part of their plan to improve military procurement. While positive outcomes could result from a new organizational structure, simply installing one will not in and of itself create an efficient procurement model. It most certainly will not address in any substantive manner why taxpayers pay far too much to acquire the defence capabilities Canada needs to protect our sovereign interests in a world that has become increasingly unstable in recent years. It appears that, in many cases, Canada pays more per unit of capability to satisfy its defence needs than most of its allies. Unfortunately, though quite logically, this phenomenon has effectively shrunk the size of our armed forces as the number of platforms we can afford to acquire continues to dwindle due to high costs. While this approach can create short-term jobs, they are ultimately unsustainable since there is no international market for our higher-priced solutions. This is not the direction in which Canada should be headed. Before Canada decides to move ahead with a new procurement agency, it should assemble a “smart persons” panel or forum to thoroughly review the existing system and establish the mandate and objectives of whatever type of organization results from said review. Such a review group must be composed of people from the public and private sector with significant experience, not skewed with staff whose procurement experience primarily consists of exposure to the Canadian “way”. During this review, the panel must examine various issues which are currently perceived to be an impediment to the efficiency of Canada's procurement system. Based on my own years of experience on both the buy and sell sides of the procurement equation, the following areas merit some serious thought: Organizational Structure The fewer individuals, departments and oversight committees with their fingers in the “procurement pie”, the quicker and more coherently things will get done. Even at today's interest rates, time really is money for all involved in the process. Adding more time to a schedule for another management review quite often has a negative impact. While I understand governance and oversight committees have their place, their overinvolvement can produce negative outcomes if mandates are not absolutely clear and if individuals on these committees have limited experience with respect to the issue at hand. Risk Canada's ongoing method for defence procurement is that it will not assume any risk on their side of a contract. If Canada insists the private sector must accept all risk, the private sector will so oblige – but at a significant price and to the detriment of schedules and timelines. As contract prices necessarily increase, so do governments costs to manage the contract. In reality, the most efficient procurement solution for Canada would see some elements of risk managed by the buyer, rather than entirely borne by the seller. More consideration needs to go into balanced risk-sharing formulas. Process Canada has an extremely hands-on procurement process for major systems during the competitive phase, as well as during the implementation of the contract. Even in this digital age, Canada hamstrings its own progress with the sheer degree of detail and bureaucracy it requires; unbelievably, freight trucks are still required to deliver proposals. It seems as though, on occasion, the buyer thinks it knows more about designing and engineering the defence systems Canada needs than the actual designers and engineers for whom it is a primary occupation. Requirements of little or no consequence are painstakingly spelled out in the greatest of detail. Such an approach has a tremendous impact on the amount of time consumed by both the buyer and seller, again driving up costs and extending schedules. Less “hand holding” by the customer must be seriously considered. Sole Source In the procurement world, “sole source” is often viewed as a dirty phrase. Frequently, Canada attempts to run competitions in scenarios where the chances of achieving any meaningful savings or benefits related to competition are low at best. This takes years and drives costs higher at no measurable gain for the buyer. The parameters of when and under what circumstances Canada should move directly to a sole source should be thoroughly reviewed. Significant resources are being wasted managing nearly meaningless processes. Skills Canada's internal skill set for managing large, complex defence procurements does not appear to be adequate. As a result, it turns more and more often to the expertise of external third parties in order to keep up with large private sector firms at the negotiation table from a knowledge and experience standpoint. While there will always be a need for some third-party expertise, project managing many external suppliers in the negotiation phase – each of whom have their own agendas – only further complicates the already convoluted procurement process. Canada would be much better off with an enhanced internal core staff. If Canada takes the time to review the appropriateness of some form of DPA model, it must cast the net wider and review other critical aspects of the procurement process – or else any organizational changes will inevitably succumb to the systematic inertia of the overall process. A failure to do so means Canada will continue struggling mightily to stand-up the level of defence and security necessary to secure its citizens in an increasingly turbulent world. https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/a-new-defence-procurement-agency-would-it-solve-anything

  • New Commander for Canadian Joint Operations Command

    July 9, 2024 | Local, Land

    New Commander for Canadian Joint Operations Command

    Today, Lieutenant-General Steve Boivin assumed leadership of the Canadian Joint Operations Command (CJOC) from Commander Vice-Admiral Bob Auchterlonie. The Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS), General Wayne Eyre, presided over the morning ceremony, which took place at His Majesty’s Canadian Ship Carleton in Ottawa.

  • Lockheed Martin And Canadian UAVs To Improve Unmanned Beyond Visual Line Of Sight Operations

    December 20, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

    Lockheed Martin And Canadian UAVs To Improve Unmanned Beyond Visual Line Of Sight Operations

    Calgary, Alberta, December 17, 2019 – The ability to fly unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) beyond the visual line of sight (BVLOS) significantly improves their effectiveness and potential. The increased range of BVLOS operations requires real-time airspace situational awareness for the UAV pilot and support crew to ensure safe, repeatable operations. Canadian UAVs and Lockheed Martin Canada CDL Systems have signed a memorandum of understanding to provide an unmanned traffic management solution to meet this challenge. This solution will build a complete airspace picture necessary to conduct unmanned operations beyond visual line of sight in Canada and beyond. “A complete airspace picture is an absolutely necessity to conduct unmanned flights beyond visual line of sight,” said Dustin Engen, Lockheed Martin Canada CDL Systems Business Development Manager. “When combined, Canadian UAV's Sparrowhawk radar and our VCSi product will offer all users this complete picture and provide the necessary situational awareness for BVLOS flights in Canada and abroad.” Lockheed Martin Canada CDL Systems will provide integration support for the vehicle control station software called VCSi, a universal Ground Control System based on more than 1.5 million flight hours in military and commercial flight operations. Canadian UAVs will integrate their low-cost, ground-based radar, Sparrowhawk, into VCSi to provide users with a complete airspace picture of manned and unmanned aviation tracking with collision avoidance. Sparrowhawk has been instrumental in Canadian UAVs' first permitted BVLOS flights outside of restricted airspace in Canadian history. The company will also develop hardware and artificial intelligence software as part of Project Skysensus, a five-year investment from Canada's Industrial and Technological Benefit (ITB) Policy. “With Canadian UAVs' advanced market position in BVLOS operations, we are seeing a lot of gaps in what the general market offers to solve fundamental technological issues in unmanned aviation,” said Sean Greenwood, President of Canadian UAVs. “As a result, we developed a technology roadmap that invests in a comprehensive toolset to increase flight safety and repeatability as these operations increase in volume and airspace complexity. We have been working with Lockheed Martin CDL Systems for several years and we are very excited by this agreement to formalize the relationship.” About Lockheed Martin Canada Lockheed Martin Canada has been Canada's trusted defence partner for nearly 80 years and has a proud legacy of providing innovative naval systems and sustainment solutions for Canada and abroad. For more than three decades, Lockheed Martin Canada has demonstrated its capability and commitment to the Royal Canadian Navy as the Prime Contractor and Combat System Integrator for the HALIFAX Class Frigates. The company employs approximately 1,000 employees at major facilities in Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax, Calgary, and Victoria, working on a wide range of major programs spanning the aerospace, defence and commercial sectors. About Canadian UAVs Canadian UAVs is a military-grade unmanned aviation services company based in Calgary, Alberta. With flight safety as our first priority, we provide UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) solutions for a range of applications. We provide low-cost surveillance, monitoring, training, and reporting for commodity-based operations, utilities, military and real estate through UAVs. In 2018, CUAVS became the first company in Canadian history to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) as part of Transport Canada's BVLOS Task Force trials View source version on Lockheed Martin: https://news.lockheedmartin.com/lockheed-martin-canadian-uavs-improve-unmanned-beyond-visual-line-sight-operations

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