16 février 2021 | International, Aérospatial

Can UAM, Advanced Air Mobility Escape From The Hype Phase?

Michael Bruno

Stop me if you have heard this before: A whole new class of aircraft will democratize and revolutionize seemingly everything, starting with air travel. Will it be advanced air mobility or maybe very light jets?

Aviation consultant Brian Foley recalls the latter while thinking of the former, since both are in the news recently. Disruptive paradigms are not a new threat to aviation, even this century, he notes.

The Eclipse very light jet (VLJ) was intended to make airborne commuting more of a reality before it became a $1.5 billion “smoking crater in the ground.” In November, the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware authorized the sale of Eclipse Aerospace and the Eclipse Aircraft project to AML Global Eclipse, backed by British businessman Christopher Harborne, for $5.25 million.

Now some observers wonder whether urban air mobility (UAM) and advanced air mobility (AAM) will experience something similar. “There are two sides of the fence, and you're either on one side or another,” Foley pointed out in a recent edition of the Aerospace Executive Podcast with talent finder Craig Picken. “One side of the fence is that this is disruptive technology, and this will just change the whole landscape of how people travel in cities and between regional points. Some investors believe that, too, and they are putting some chips down on the different potential winners if this thing does come out on the other end and is successful.

“There are others that are a little bit curious to see how this thing works,” Foley continued. “We've had helicopter service for years, which isn't all that much different. There are some concerns over noise—these things are overgrown drones.”

Yes, billions of dollars are pouring into UAM/AAM, but is it actually significant yet? Silicon Valley is behind this, as are multiple other investors. But UAM/AAM represents a fraction of their investments, which are otherwise cast far and wide and could include UAM/AAM only as a one-off gamble.

“Even though it seems like a big number to us, it's just pocket change to them,” Foley said. “They hope there is a return. Right now, there are as many arguments why it's going to succeed and won't succeed.”

Such context is easy to forget amid the flurry of recent headlines, such as Joby Aviation's takeover of Uber Elevate and a reported public trading debut on the horizon. What is more, consultants continue to publish eye-catching reports about the market's value in coming decades.

The latest from Deloitte consultancy and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) says the UAM/AAM sector could be worth $115 billion a year by 2035, employing more than 280,000 “high-paying” aerospace workers and generating an annual $20 billion in U.S. exports.

“It's become increasingly apparent that this particular area has become more real,” AIA Vice President for Civil Aviation David Silver told Aviation Week ahead of the release of the Jan. 26 study. “This is very real technology that is just on the horizon, and there is no single silver bullet that is going to make it happen.”

Deloitte's global and U.S. aerospace and defense leader, Robin Lineberger, concurred during the interview. The report pushes for a sustained, collaborative approach by the public and private sectors for electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft to be widely accepted and adopted, sooner rather than later. “With the market poised to grow sevenfold between 2025 and 2035, it's important for U.S. policymakers and industries to cooperate now to ensure American leadership in this transformative emerging sector,” he said.

Already, the global race for AAM leadership is intensifying, the groups said, and the U.S. faces strong competition from China, Germany and South Korea. As a result, the AIA-Deloitte document calls for streamlined eVTOL testing and certification as well as seamlessly integrating aircraft into the U.S. airspace system.

Silver said it is important to shed light on the issue now, at the beginning of the Biden administration, as Washington is expected again to consider domestic infrastructure development as a key priority. The point is to broaden policymakers' horizons, he said, so that they wonder, “Are we even asking the right questions?”

Still, other observers point out that—like almost everything in aerospace—paradigm shifts come slowly compared with other business sectors. Take the City-Airbus vision from the European giant: “Realistically, we will have to wait until the end of the decade to see more than a demonstrator,” Airbus Helicopters CEO Bruno Even acknowledged in a November press briefing.

Even's boss, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, was even more clear-eyed days later in a separate online debate with an automotive CEO. Faury explained that eVTOL projects, such as the Vahana two-seater and the CityAirbus four-seater, should be seen primarily as low-cost demonstrators for future technology on commercial aircraft.

Faury stressed: “There will be a market eventually, but profitability will be tricky at the start."

https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/urban-unmanned-aviation/can-uam-advanced-air-mobility-escape-hype-phase

Sur le même sujet

  • Scrutiny over Pentagon official’s Boeing ties highlights defense industry consolidation

    29 avril 2019 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité, Autre défense

    Scrutiny over Pentagon official’s Boeing ties highlights defense industry consolidation

    By SAMANTHA MASUNAGA The year was 1989. The Pentagon was under the command of President George H.W. Bush and Defense Secretary Dick Cheney. And aviation giant McDonnell Douglas Corp. was riding high as the top federal contractor, grabbing 4.6%, or $9.15 billion, of all federal contracting dollars. The next two largest contractors, General Dynamics Corp. and General Electric Co., raked in about 4% and 3.4%, respectively. Thirty years and many acquisitions later, Pentagon spending has grown far more top-heavy. Today, Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing — which bought McDonnell Douglas in 1997 — together reaped almost 15% of total U.S. government contracting dollars in fiscal year 2017, according to the most recent federal numbers. The two aerospace giants are the only makers of fast combat jets in the U.S. and are the dominant players for military transport aircraft. The concentrated power of big defense companies became an issue two years ago when longtime Boeing executive Patrick Shanahan was confirmed as deputy secretary of Defense. Then in December, President Trump named him to serve as acting Defense secretary. After a monthlong ethics investigation into allegations that Shanahan promoted Boeing while slamming rival Lockheed Martin, particularly in discussions about its F-35 fighter jet contract, the Pentagon's office of inspector general concluded Thursday that Shanahan “did not promote Boeing or disparage its competitors.” “We did not substantiate any of the allegations,” the report said. “We determined that Mr. Shanahan fully complied with his ethics agreements and his ethical obligations regarding Boeing and its competitors.” Shanahan is considered a leading candidate for permanent Defense secretary. The question of possible favoritism toward Boeing had also been raised by some when the U.S. Air Force, in its 2020 budget, made a surprise request to purchase F-15X fighter jets, an update of that company's fourth-generation jet. The Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have all made major commitments to the F-35, Lockheed Martin's more advanced and pricier fifth-generation fighter. The inspector general report said the Pentagon's mix of fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft was a decision made by former Defense Secretary James N. Mattis before Shanahan's confirmation to the department. A Defense official told trade publication Defense News that the decision was bolstered by concerns about keeping “multiple providers in the tactical aircraft portfolio.” But there was no contract competition based on a set of defined requirements — the way business typically works in the industry, said Richard Aboulafia, aviation analyst at market analysis firm Teal Group. “It's a duopoly structure business with a lot at stake,” he said of fast combat jet manufacturing. “It's amazing that no one considered the optics here.” In some cases, the military has encouraged monopolies. In 2006, Lockheed Martin and Boeing got government approval to form United Launch Alliance, a joint venture set up specifically to launch national security satellites. The venture was proposed after the companies argued there were not enough launches to sustain two competitors. “The market is more concentrated,” said Mandy Smithberger, director of the Center for Defense Information at the Project on Government Oversight, an independent watchdog group. “You see the government making decisions thinking about how it will impact industry probably more than they should be.” Still, when President Reagan was in office, there were a number of major manufacturers of tactical military jets — Northrop Corp., Grumman Corp., Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, and General Dynamics, to name a few, Aboulafia said. But as the Cold War ended in the 1990s, defense funding dried up, leading to major aerospace mergers, such as Lockheed and Martin Marietta, and Boeing's acquisition of Rockwell International's aerospace business and McDonnell Douglas. A push for commonality among the Pentagon's planes also led to the fewer numbers of tactical military jets. The idea was that using similar aircraft would lead to savings in development and production costs, Andrew Hunter, director of the defense-industrial initiatives group at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said in an email. As a result, the share of federal defense contracts awarded to the top largest private companies increased to 31.3% in 2000 from 21.7% in 1990, according to a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper on the effect of 1990s-era defense industry consolidation. In 2017, the share of the top five reached 35%, according to federal data analyzed for that paper by Stanford University researchers. The paper concluded that those mergers resulted in a less competitive procurement process. But it did not find evidence of a significant increase in acquisition costs for large weapon systems, said Mark Duggan, director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and co-author of the paper. As the industry gets more concentrated, it can lead to concern that “there's only one or two potential contractors for a certain product, and then you may not get the kind of competitive outcome you want,” he said. The consolidation process hasn't slowed, driven by the perceived need to compete for more and bigger contracts. Last year, Northrop Grumman Corp. acquired spacecraft and rocket motor manufacturer Orbital ATK Inc. Months later, military communications firms L3 Technologies Inc. and Harris Corp. announced their intent to merge. Although acquisitions and mergers can lead to greater efficiency, they can also have a detrimental effect on product innovation, said Aboulafia of Teal Group. For example, he said, as aircraft manufacturers consolidate, clean-sheet designs may be more of a rarity in the future as there are fewer design teams in the industry from different companies. For Boeing, “in terms of designing a clean-sheet fighter jet, it's been many, many, many years,” he said. In 2017, Lockheed Martin won more than $50 billion in total federal contracting dollars, making the Bethesda, Md., company No. 1 on a list of the top 100 federal contractors, according to federal procurement data. Boeing was a distant second with more than $23 billion. When narrowed to weapon acquisition contract dollars in fiscal year 2017, Lockheed Martin's individual piece of the pie totaled about 17%, with Boeing further behind at about 7.5%, according to federal data analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. News of the Defense Department ethics investigation came after watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington sent a letter to the acting Defense Department inspector general, asking him to investigate allegations that Shanahan had boosted Boeing while working in the Pentagon. The letter includes a description from a Politico story published in January, in which Shanahan allegedly criticized Lockheed Martin's work on the F-35 joint strike fighter program, saying it “would be done much better” if Boeing had won the contract. In that article, an unnamed former Pentagon official told the news organization that Shanahan said during a high-level meeting that Lockheed “doesn't know how to run a program.” The inspector general's report said none of the witnesses interviewed said they heard Shanahan praise Boeing in meetings or discussions or make disparaging remarks about Lockheed Martin. Shanahan told the inspector general's team that he had never praised a Boeing military product and that he had said “program management on the F-35 is inadequate.” Shanahan's Boeing career spanned more than 30 years, during which he led its missile defense systems and military helicopter units. He also served as senior vice president of the company's commercial airplane division and is known for his work on Boeing's 787 Dreamliner program, which was behind schedule when he first took the helm. Boeing declined to comment this month on the initiation of the ethics investigation. The company referred to a statement it made in January, saying Boeing officials had not spoken to Shanahan about its programs during “his entire Pentagon tenure” and that the company “adheres to and respects Acting Secretary Shanahan's decision to recuse himself from company matters.” Shanahan isn't the first industry executive to lead the Defense Department. Under President Eisenhower, Defense Secretary Charles Wilson joined the Pentagon after serving as chief executive of General Motors, which made military vehicles at the time. Other defense industry brass have also joined the Pentagon over the years, though in lower roles. Analysts say the Pentagon could benefit from having a leader who understands how industry works, and who has been on the other side of the negotiating table and can avoid being tricked. And the Defense secretary typically works less with industry representatives than deputies do. “Secretaries aren't making a lot of decisions on individual contracts,” Smithberger said. “They're setting the priorities for the department.” But the potential conflicts may be “hard to escape,” said Loren Thompson, defense analyst at the Lexington Institute think tank, which receives funding from both Boeing and Lockheed Martin. “Boeing is so big that almost every discussion of strategy, budgets or programs bears upon its interests,” he said. https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-boeing-lockheed-shanahan-20190426-story.html

  • Dutch Navy improves radar, adds Tomahawk missile to fleet

    13 septembre 2023 | International, Naval

    Dutch Navy improves radar, adds Tomahawk missile to fleet

    The service is also experimenting with drones to increase safety and bolster its capability.

  • Boeing to Modernize Entire Spanish Chinook Helicopter Fleet

    4 janvier 2019 | International, Aérospatial

    Boeing to Modernize Entire Spanish Chinook Helicopter Fleet

    Will remanufacture 17 CH-47D Chinooks to the CH-47F configuration for Spain's Army PHILADELPHIA, Pa., Jan. 3, 2019 — Boeing [NYSE: BA] will upgrade all 17 of Spain's CH-47D Chinook helicopters to the F-model configuration, adding features such as the digital automatic flight control system, common avionics architecture system and advanced cargo handling to align that country's fleet with those of other nations. This is the first order from a non-U.S. customer placed through a contract Boeing and the U.S. Army signed in July. That contract covers six new F-models for the U.S. and options for up to 150 more Chinooks for U.S. and international customers. Deliveries to Spain begin in 2021. “The Chinook is a versatile aircraft flown by eight NATO nations, including Spain,” said Chuck Dabundo, vice president, Cargo and Utility Helicopters and H-47 program manager. “With this contract, Spain's Chinook crews will enjoy the platform's current technology and capability, while the country gets an affordable upgrade that builds on its existing H-47 investment.” The CH-47F is a twin-engine, tandem rotor, heavy-lift helicopter. In addition to the U.S. Army and Special Operations Forces, Chinooks are currently in service or under contract with 19 international defense forces. It can fly at speeds exceeding 175 mph and carry payloads greater than 21,000 lbs. In 2017, Boeing and the U.S. Army announced development of CH-47F Block II, which will incorporate a new rotor blade, redesigned fuel system, improved drivetrain and structural improvements to the fuselage. For more information on Defense, Space & Security, visit www.boeing.com. Follow us on Twitter: @BoeingDefense and @BoeingSpace. # # # Contacts: Marcia Costley Defense, Space & Security Office: +1 310-364-8409 Mobile: +1 714-316-4267 marcia.b.costley@boeing.com Andrew Africk Defense, Space & Security Office: +1 610-591-2393 Mobile: +1 610-379-6208 andrew.africk@boeing.com https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2019-01-03-Boeing-to-Modernize-Entire-Spanish-Chinook-Helicopter-Fleet

Toutes les nouvelles