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February 16, 2021 | International, Aerospace

Can UAM, Advanced Air Mobility Escape From The Hype Phase?

Michael Bruno

Stop me if you have heard this before: A whole new class of aircraft will democratize and revolutionize seemingly everything, starting with air travel. Will it be advanced air mobility or maybe very light jets?

Aviation consultant Brian Foley recalls the latter while thinking of the former, since both are in the news recently. Disruptive paradigms are not a new threat to aviation, even this century, he notes.

The Eclipse very light jet (VLJ) was intended to make airborne commuting more of a reality before it became a $1.5 billion “smoking crater in the ground.” In November, the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware authorized the sale of Eclipse Aerospace and the Eclipse Aircraft project to AML Global Eclipse, backed by British businessman Christopher Harborne, for $5.25 million.

Now some observers wonder whether urban air mobility (UAM) and advanced air mobility (AAM) will experience something similar. “There are two sides of the fence, and you're either on one side or another,” Foley pointed out in a recent edition of the Aerospace Executive Podcast with talent finder Craig Picken. “One side of the fence is that this is disruptive technology, and this will just change the whole landscape of how people travel in cities and between regional points. Some investors believe that, too, and they are putting some chips down on the different potential winners if this thing does come out on the other end and is successful.

“There are others that are a little bit curious to see how this thing works,” Foley continued. “We've had helicopter service for years, which isn't all that much different. There are some concerns over noise—these things are overgrown drones.”

Yes, billions of dollars are pouring into UAM/AAM, but is it actually significant yet? Silicon Valley is behind this, as are multiple other investors. But UAM/AAM represents a fraction of their investments, which are otherwise cast far and wide and could include UAM/AAM only as a one-off gamble.

“Even though it seems like a big number to us, it's just pocket change to them,” Foley said. “They hope there is a return. Right now, there are as many arguments why it's going to succeed and won't succeed.”

Such context is easy to forget amid the flurry of recent headlines, such as Joby Aviation's takeover of Uber Elevate and a reported public trading debut on the horizon. What is more, consultants continue to publish eye-catching reports about the market's value in coming decades.

The latest from Deloitte consultancy and the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) says the UAM/AAM sector could be worth $115 billion a year by 2035, employing more than 280,000 “high-paying” aerospace workers and generating an annual $20 billion in U.S. exports.

“It's become increasingly apparent that this particular area has become more real,” AIA Vice President for Civil Aviation David Silver told Aviation Week ahead of the release of the Jan. 26 study. “This is very real technology that is just on the horizon, and there is no single silver bullet that is going to make it happen.”

Deloitte's global and U.S. aerospace and defense leader, Robin Lineberger, concurred during the interview. The report pushes for a sustained, collaborative approach by the public and private sectors for electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) aircraft to be widely accepted and adopted, sooner rather than later. “With the market poised to grow sevenfold between 2025 and 2035, it's important for U.S. policymakers and industries to cooperate now to ensure American leadership in this transformative emerging sector,” he said.

Already, the global race for AAM leadership is intensifying, the groups said, and the U.S. faces strong competition from China, Germany and South Korea. As a result, the AIA-Deloitte document calls for streamlined eVTOL testing and certification as well as seamlessly integrating aircraft into the U.S. airspace system.

Silver said it is important to shed light on the issue now, at the beginning of the Biden administration, as Washington is expected again to consider domestic infrastructure development as a key priority. The point is to broaden policymakers' horizons, he said, so that they wonder, “Are we even asking the right questions?”

Still, other observers point out that—like almost everything in aerospace—paradigm shifts come slowly compared with other business sectors. Take the City-Airbus vision from the European giant: “Realistically, we will have to wait until the end of the decade to see more than a demonstrator,” Airbus Helicopters CEO Bruno Even acknowledged in a November press briefing.

Even's boss, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, was even more clear-eyed days later in a separate online debate with an automotive CEO. Faury explained that eVTOL projects, such as the Vahana two-seater and the CityAirbus four-seater, should be seen primarily as low-cost demonstrators for future technology on commercial aircraft.

Faury stressed: “There will be a market eventually, but profitability will be tricky at the start."

https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/urban-unmanned-aviation/can-uam-advanced-air-mobility-escape-hype-phase

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  • DARPA Awards Six Teams During Final Spectrum Collaboration Challenge Qualifier

    December 20, 2018 | International, C4ISR

    DARPA Awards Six Teams During Final Spectrum Collaboration Challenge Qualifier

    On December 12, DARPA held the second preliminary event of the Spectrum Collaboration Challenge (SC2) – the world's first collaborative machine-intelligence competition to overcome spectrum scarcity. Fifteen teams represented by members from across the academic, commercial and defense landscapes gathered at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) to pit their intelligent radio designs against each other in a head-to-head competition. At the event's conclusion, six of the eight top-scoring teams walked away with $750,000 each in prize money. While not all competitors received interim prizes, all 15 teams have an opportunity to move on to the next stage and compete in the 2019 Spectrum Collaboration Challenge grand finale, which will be held in conjunction with MWC19 Los Angeles, in partnership with CTIA, on October 23, 2019. The six prize-winning teams from the second preliminary event are: Zylinium, a team of independent researchers MarmotE from Vanderbilt University Sprite from Northeastern University Erebus, a team of independent researchers Gator Wings from University of Florida SCATTER from IDLab, an imec research group at Ghent University and University of Antwerp, and Rutgers University "During the second preliminary event we witnessed a technological shift," said Paul Tilghman, the DARPA program manager leading SC2. "For the first time, we saw autonomous collaboration outperform the status quo for spectrum management." Starting in early December, each team's radio participated in 105 matches against competitors in the Colosseum, a massive RF testbed that was developed specifically for SC2. The matches were held in a round-robin fashion where each radio network – working in groups of threes, fours or fives – had multiple opportunities to compete against every other radio design in the competition. Roughly 400 matches were held in total to determine the final team rankings and the prize recipients. During the PE2 matches, teams were put through six different RF scenarios designed to mimic the challenges that collaborative, autonomous radios will face in the real world. These scenarios challenged the radios to collaboratively mitigate interfering with an incumbent radio system, sense and adapt to the spectrum demands of high-traffic environments, handle the data demands of the connected soldier of the future, and beyond. Each scenario was designed to pressure test various elements of the teams' approaches and, in particular, their ability to successfully collaborate with the other radios operating within the same environment. “The six different scenarios were closely aligned to actual situations that our defense and commercial systems face in the field. The Wildfire scenario, for example, replicates the complex communications environment that surrounds an emergency response situation, while the Alleys of Austin scenario was designed to mimic what's needed to help dismounted soldiers navigate and communicate as they sweep through an urban environment. This real-world relevance was critical for us as we want to ensure these technologies can continue to develop after the event and can transition to commercial and/or military applications,” said Tilghman. The sixth scenario of the competition was used to determine the six prize winning teams. This scenario explored the essential question of the SC2 competition: can the top teams' collaborative SC2 radios outperform the status quo of static allocation? Each of the six teams that received awards at PE2 demonstrated that their radio was capable of carrying more wireless applications without the aid of a handcrafted spectrum plan, while simultaneously ensuring four other radio networks operating in the same area had improved performance. In short, each of these six radio networks demonstrated the autonomous future of the spectrum. To aid with decision making, teams applied AI and machine learning technologies in various ways. Some leveraged the current generation of AI technologies like deep learning, while others used more conventional optimization approaches. There were also a few teams that used first wave, rule-based AI technologies. “We're very encouraged by the results we saw at PE2. The teams' radios faced new and unexpected scenarios but were still able to demonstrate smart, collaborative decision making. PE2 showed us that AI and machine learning's application to wireless spectrum management creates a very real opportunity to rethink our current century-old approach,” said Tilghman. The competition now enters its third year and moves closer to the finale, which will be held at one of the country's largest annual technology and telecommunications shows – MWC19 Los Angeles. More than 22,000 attendees from the broad mobile ecosystem and adjacent industry sectors will convene at this three-day event to discuss the current opportunities and future trends shaping the industry. The SC2 championship event will be held on the keynote stage of MWC19 Los Angeles on October 23, 2019. At the conclusion of SC2's finale, three teams will be awarded $2 million, $1 million and $750,000, respectively, for first, second and third place. The real prize, however, will be the promise of a more efficient wireless paradigm in which radio networks autonomously collaborate to determine how the spectrum should be used moment-to-moment, helping to usher in an era of spectrum abundance. For more information about DARPA's Spectrum Collaboration Challenge, please visit: https://spectrumcollaborationchallenge.com/ https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2018-12-19

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  • Contractors Recovering From COVID Shutdowns: Bruce Jette

    May 14, 2020 | International, Land

    Contractors Recovering From COVID Shutdowns: Bruce Jette

    While the pandemic continues, Pentagon metrics show production on Army programs is returning to normal, the Army's acquisition chief told Breaking Defense. By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.on May 14, 2020 at 4:01 AM WASHINGTON: The number of defense contractors reopening after COVID-19 quarantines now exceeds the number of new shutdowns, the Army's senior acquisition official said in an interview. That is happening, Bruce Jette told me, because industry is learning and adapting. New health precautions, from disinfecting tools between shifts to social distancing on the factory floor, should contain further outbreaks of COVID-19 and keep Army programs on track, he said – even if there's a new upsurge in infections nationwide. According to daily updates from Defense Contract Management Agency, Jette said, “the openings are outweighing the number of closings, and total number of closings is down significantly, so things are improving quite a bit.” Of 10,509 facilities large and small that DCMA is tracking, 248 had closed at some point — but only 40 are still closed. The number of reopenings has exceeded the number of new closings since April 20. But, I asked, what if there's another spike, whether from states relaxing shutdown orders or a change in weather come the fall? Because of the new precautions now in place, Jette told me, “I would say that in the long run, if we had some degree of a resurgence, I don't think it would be as marked as the first one.” Learning To Cope There was an initial wave of shutdowns in the first days of the pandemic, Jette said, because a single case of COVID-19 might require putting the entire workforce at a facility into quarantine, particularly at smaller companies. That wasn't a panicked reaction, but a reasonable precaution. Workers had been mingling freely in close quarters, most coronavirus carriers were asymptomatic, and virtually no reliable tests were available. A company facing a single case had no way of knowing who else might already be infected. But that's no longer true, Jette went on. Private companies and government agencies alike have now broken up large groups of workers into smaller ones, creating “bubbles” in which any contagion can be contained. “For example, in the past, one shift came in and started using the tools from the other shift,” Jette said, as one example. “Now, between shifts, a cleaning team comes in and disinfects all the tools.” Wiping down shared equipment, surfaces, and spaces is just one part of a multi-layered defense against contagion. Workers on the same shift who once all came in and out together, chatting in close quarters and shaking hands, may now arrive and leave on staggered schedules so they can stay six feet apart at all times. Workflows have been changed and workstations physically moved, where possible, to permit social distancing on the factory floor. Employees who must work side-by-side wear masks and gloves. Those precautions reduce the chance of someone catching the coronavirus in the first place – and just as important, they make it harder for one infected employee to spread the disease, especially to colleagues outside their “bubble.” So when somebody does get sick, you only need to quarantine their particular team, not shut down the whole factory. “If somebody in the bubble comes down [with COVID],” he said, “ only that bubble ends up isolated.” Even Pentagon offices like Jette's own are getting cleaned more frequently and more thoroughly, he told me, even when no one working in them has actually gotten sick. “[Even when] nobody has become infected in a particular office,” he told me, “we are having a cleaning team go through and do one office here, one office there, and just do a thorough wipe-down to make sure that there's nothing that got into that office undetected.” These precautions aren't excessively onerous, disruptive, or costly, Jette said. They're just things nobody had thought about doing before – but now they might be useful even after the pandemic is under control. “I don't see it being a significant burden on the system; it was just something we didn't see was an issue before,” he said, “[but] I may well help us have fewer flus and colds if we just continue the same practice.” Dealing With Disruption Industry may be adapting well, but a global pandemic is still extraordinarily disruptive. Like the rest of the Defense Department, the Army is closely tracking not only its prime contractors but the smaller subcontractors and sub-sub-contractors, which are much more fragile. To date, the Army has pumped $167.5 million into small businesses to help them ride out COVID disruptions. “There have been some cost implications to the government,” Jette said, “but mostly with respect to the CARES Act,” which ensures workers at facilities closed by COVID are paid instead of let go. The main way the Army has helped out companies is by making payments they already had coming, just ahead of schedule. For example, Jette said, the service has started writing checks to contractors every 15 days instead of the normal 30. It's also increasing progress payments, normally limited to 80 percent of total contract value (85 percent for small business) to 90 percent (95 for small business). “Cash flow was one of those things we concerned ourselves with,” Jette said. “Congress gave us flexibilities there. There were things passed down from OMB in the White House that gave us some flexibility as well.” To help figure out which subcontractors might be in trouble, the Army's prime contractors have opened their books and shared information with the service, far beyond anything they were contractually obligated to do, Jette said. Since the early days of the pandemic, even before shutdowns began, he's been getting a daily report on the health of subcontractors, which now routinely runs over 60 pages. “The primes ... were all very cooperative in trying to give us visibility down to the lowest level supplier,” Jette said. “It's really been helpful for us, because it helps us get a better gauge on what we have to do if something goes awry. In some cases when a subcontractor shuts down, the primes can find an alternative supplier. But despite the huge size of the defense industrial base, Jette said, there are single points of failure where only one company that's been formally qualified to build a certain part or perform a certain industrial process. It takes time to get a back-up supplier up to speed – sometimes longer than the 16.8 days that, on average, it takes a quarantined facility to reopen. That has resulted in delays, Jette acknowledges, but, so far, Army programs are finding ways to make up the time elsewhere in their schedules and still deliver new weapons to the troops on time – what's called First Unit Equipped, or FUE. “Delivery schedules on some products have slipped a little bit right...but at this point, none of them has assuredly slipped the FUE,” Jette told me. “As of right now, the vast majority of challenges that we've had with COVID, we've been able to accommodate within the current contracts with minor changes.” But the factories aren't the only part of the system that has to function. “The most significant thing isn't production,” Jette said. “It's trying to get all the testing done to make sure that all the systems work.” While some testing takes place in labs, what's most complex is operational testing, which puts a new technology in the hands of soldiers in the field to see how it works in for a real unit, interacting with all the rest of that unit's gear, conducting a realistic mission in realistic conditions. That requires bringing together not only the soldiers but technical specialists from the manufacturers, Army program offices, and Army testing organizations across the country. “Those are not simple to just change or move around, [and] that's part of what we've struggled with,” Jette said. “In some cases, we have suppliers who provide a capability and it's ready to be tested and we just don't have the facilities or the units available yet for full testing.” Officials need adequate test data before they can approve a program to start production – what's known as a Milestone C decision. But, Jette said, if you have to delay that formal approval, you can compensate by getting ready to jump-start manufacturing as soon as you have the go-ahead. The contractor can even start production ahead of Milestone C at its own risk, if it's confident that testing will not find any significant problems. At some point, it comes down to what kind of risk you're willing to take. If you rev up your manufacturing base before testing is complete, but then testing discovers a problem you have to fix, you may have to make expensive, time-consuming changes to your design, to your production process, or even to items already built. But if you wait for all the testing to get done, no matter how long it takes, you may not get the kit to troops on schedule. Unprecedented Stresses It's a difficult and stressful time; Jette can't recall anything like it in his 30 years in the defense sector. “At least based on my experience which goes back to the early '90s,” he told me, “you may have had strains on a particular vendor, [but] this is fundamentally a nationwide challenge that covers all of our programs.” “I can't think of any time where we had such a longstanding challenge to keeping programs fully operational,” he said. “Probably the closest thing,” he said, is when Congress can't pass defense funding bills on time and passes a stopgap Continuing Resolution. A CR essentially puts spending on autopilot at last year's levels with no ability to start new programs, ramp up existing ones, or cancel failing ones. Like the pandemic, a CR can impact every function of the Defense Department, or even the entire federal government, for weeks or months on end. But funding problems don't threaten the health and safety of every worker the way the pandemic does. “In this case, we have to consider the financial underpinnings, but we also have to consider the impact to the people themselves.” “Our most valuable resources are people,” Jette said. “If I don't have good people, I'm not getting good work done. I want to make sure those people want to work here, and a big piece of that is giving them a safe and healthy environment.” https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/contractors-recovering-from-covid-shutdowns-bruce-jette/

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