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5/26/2020 By Jon Harper The Navy already plans to spend big on robotics platforms in the coming years. As operation and maintenance costs grow and defense budgets tighten, that trend could accelerate, analysts say. The sea service's future years defense program calls for about $12 billion for unmanned aircraft, surface vessels and underwater systems in fiscal years 2021 through 2025, according to Bloomberg Government. Senior officials have a stated goal of pursuing a 355-plus-ship fleet of manned vessels, but unmanned systems are “probably the future of the Navy,” Robert Levinson, senior defense analyst at Bloomberg Government, said during a recent webinar. About $7.9 billion in the future years defense program would go toward drones, including nearly $4.3 billion for the MQ-4C Triton maritime surveillance aircraft and nearly $1 billion for the MQ-25 Stingray aircraft carrier-launched tanker, according to his presentation slides. An additional $2.2 billion would be allocated toward unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, and $1.9 billion for unmanned underwater vessels, or UUVs. Navy plans call for spending $941 million on USVs and UUVs in 2021 alone, a 129 percent increase relative to 2019, according to the slides. Operations, maintenance and personnel costs could squeeze modernization accounts in the coming years, Levinson noted. The 2021 Navy budget request included $125.8 billion total for those categories. In comparison, the request included $57.2 billion for procurement and $21.5 billion for research, development, test and evaluation. “With this budget being especially flat, you're really seeing the tension particularly in the Navy of, ... ‘Do we spend money on buying new stuff? Or do we need to spend the money on maintaining the stuff we have?'” he said. “You can buy more ships and put more money [into that], but then you need more sailors and you need more training of the sailors,” he noted. The COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate funding constraints and further incentivize investments in unmanned platforms, Levinson said. “The Navy is really in a tough spot” trying to achieve its force level goals, he added. However, unmanned vessels are generally expected to be less expensive to procure, operate and maintain than manned platforms, which make them attractive as the sea service invests in new capabilities, Levinson noted. Meanwhile, the Marine Corps plans to restructure its forces to take on advanced adversaries, with a heavier emphasis on robotic platforms. “That has huge implications going out into the future” for acquisitions, Levinson said. “The Marine Corps' restructuring that's been announced is probably the biggest in a generation.” https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2020/5/26/navy-wants-$12-billion-for-unmanned-platforms

NAVY AECOM Technical Services Inc., Los Angeles, California (N62470-19-D-8022); Aptim Federal Services LLC, Alexandria, Virginia (N62470-19-D-8023); CH2M Hill Constructors Inc., Englewood, Colorado (N62470-19-D-8024); Environmental Chemical Corp., Burlingame, California (N62470-19-D-8025); Fluor Intercontinental Inc., Greensville, South Carolina (N62470-19-D-8026); and Perini Management Services Inc., Framingham, Massachusetts (N62470-19-D-8027), are awarded a $1,000,000,000 modification to increase the maximum dollar value of an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity, multiple award contract for global contingency construction projects worldwide. The work to be performed provides for the Navy on behalf of the Department of Defense and other federal agencies for immediate response for construction services when authorized. The construction and related engineering services will respond to natural disasters, humanitarian assistance, conflict or projects with similar characteristics and will be predominately construction. The contractor, in support of the construction effort, may be required to provide initial base operating support services, which will be incidental to construction efforts. After award of this modification, the total cumulative contract value will be $2,087,443,694. The term of the contract is not to exceed 60 months with a completion date of March 2024. No funds will be obligated at time of award; funds will be obligated on subsequent modifications for work on existing individual task orders. The Naval Facilities Engineering Command Atlantic, Norfolk, Virginia, is the contracting activity. Raytheon Co. Integrated Defense Systems, Tewksbury, Massachusetts, is awarded a $29,222,688 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the Receive Only Cooperative Radar and its system. This contract provides for the development of new detection algorithms and operating modes for the AN/SPY-6(V)1 radar system, which will improve detection and tracking capabilities of the radar system. Work will be performed in Marlboro, Massachusetts (98%); and Fairfax, Virginia (2%). The work to be performed includes modelling and simulation of new operating modes, revisions of code to incorporate new algorithms, integration of algorithms into demonstration hardware and field tests using representative AN/SPY-6(V)1 demonstration hardware. Work is expected to be completed by May 25, 2023. The total cumulative value of this contract is $29,222,688. This is a three-year base contract with one two-year option period, which, if exercised, would increase cumulative contract value to $47,513,260. The action will be incrementally funded with an initial obligation of $6,722,688 utilizing fiscal 2020 research, development, test and evaluation (Navy) funds that will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was competitively procured under N00014-19-S-B001, “Long Range Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) for Navy and Marine Corps Science and Technology.” Since proposals are received throughout the year under the long range BAA, the number of proposals received in response to the solicitation are unknown. The Office of Naval Research, Arlington, Virginia, is the contracting activity (N00014-20-C-1073). Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a $15,989,488 cost-plus-fixed-fee order (N00019-20-F-0817) against a previously-issued basic ordering agreement N00019-19-G-0008. This order procures support to manage diminishing manufacturing sources in support of the F-35 program for the Air Force, Navy and non-Department of Defense (DOD) participants. Work will be performed in Fort Worth, Texas, and is expected to be complete by June 2020. Fiscal 2018 aircraft procurement (Air Force) funds in the amount of $6,545,775; fiscal 2019 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $6,545,774; and non-DOD participant funds in the amount of $2,897,939 will be obligated at time of award, $6,545,775 of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. CACI Inc. - Federal, Chantilly, Virginia, is awarded a $14,899,365 firm-fixed-price contract (N32205-20-C-4008) for 365-calendar day worldwide logistics services. The $14,899,365 consists of the amounts listed in the following areas: labor, materials and travel. Work will be performed worldwide. Work will include worldwide support services in the functional areas of sustainment logistics, corrective maintenance logistics system support, combat logistics force load management, material handling equipment, ordnance handling equipment support and ordnance management. Work is expected to be complete by June 2021. The contract includes one option period, which if exercised, will bring the total contract value to $29,628,581. Funds will be obligated on June 1, 2020. Contract funds in the amount of $14,899,365, excluding the option period, are obligated for fiscal 2020 using Navy working capital funds and (transportation) working capital funds. This contract is a sole-source and one offer was received. The Naval Military Sealift Command, Norfolk, Virginia, is the contracting activity. Grammatech Inc., Ithaca, New York, is awarded a $7,569,838 modification (P00010) to previously-awarded cost-plus-fixed-fee contract N68335-17-C-0700. This modification exercises an option to procure continued services and materials necessary to conduct research and develop the Late-Stage Software Customization and Complexity Reduction project. Work will be performed in Ithaca, New York. Specifically, this modification provides for the research and development of five software tools – Grammatech Transformer (GTx)-Reducer, GTx-Optimizer, GTx-Hardener and Vertex and LiftBridge. These software tools improve the viability of late stage customization against software binaries. Work is expected to be complete by May 2022. Fiscal 2020 research, development, test and evaluation (Navy) funds in the amount of $469,719 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Lakehurst, New Jersey, is the contracting activity. CORRECTION: The May 15, 2020, announcement of an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract (N00383-20-D-XE01) awarded to S&K Aerospace LLC,* St. Ignatius, Montana, for the repair, overhaul and upgrade of 361 commercial common items used on P-8A Poseidon maritime aircraft included incorrect solicitation information. The contract was competitively procured with the solicitation posted to the Federal Business Opportunities website as a small business set-aside (SBSA) requirement and not as an 8(a)SBSA. ARMY Ernst & Young LLP, Washington, D.C., was awarded a $93,000,000 modification (P00023) to contract W91CRB-18-F-0238 for professional commercial audit support services. Work will be performed in Washington, D.C., with an estimated completion date of Sept. 20, 2021. Fiscal 2020 operations and maintenance (Army) funds in the amount of $12,337,384 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, is the contracting activity. General Dynamics Mission Systems Inc., Huntsville, Alabama, was awarded a $16,211,164 modification (P00068) to contract W58RGZ-18-C-0043 for engineering services and contractors on the battlefield. Work will be performed in Huntsville, Alabama, with an estimated completion date of Sept. 17, 2023. Fiscal 2020 operations and maintenance (Army) funds in the amount of $16,211,164 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is the contracting activity. ProSecure LLC,* Fairfax, Virginia, was awarded an $11,165,786 firm-fixed-price contract for armed guard security services. Bids were solicited via the internet with 12 received. Work will be performed in the cities of Rufus, The Dalles and Cascade Locks, Oregon, with an estimated completion date of July 3, 2025. Fiscal 2020 civil expenses funds in the amount of $11,165,786 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland, Oregon, is the contracting activity (W9127N-20-C-0003). DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY Paragon-One Group LLC,* Gaithersburg, Maryland, has been awarded a maximum $57,792,000 firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for managed print software services. This was a competitive acquisition with six responses received. This is a three-year contract with no option periods. Locations of performance are inside and outside the continental U.S., with a May 25, 2023, performance completion date. Using customer is Defense Logistics Agency. Type of appropriation is fiscal year 2020 through 2023 working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Contracting Services Office, New Cumberland, Pennsylvania (SP7000-20-D-0003). Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., Stratford, Connecticut, has been awarded a maximum $7,946,333 firm-fixed-price delivery order (SPRPA1-20-F-C12U) against a five-year basic ordering agreement (SPRPA1-17-G-C101) for H-53 hydraulic fluid tanks. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304 (c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Location of performance is Connecticut, with an April 30, 2025, performance completion date. Using military service is Navy. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2025 Navy working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Aviation, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Burlington Industries LLC, Greensboro, North Carolina, has been awarded a maximum $7,935,500 modification (P00007) exercising the second one-year option period of a one-year base contract (SPE1C1-18-D-1054) with four one-year option periods for poly/wool gabardine cloth. This is a fixed-price with economic-price-adjustment contract. Location of performance is North Carolina, with a May 29, 2021, performance completion date. Using military service is Marine Corps. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2021 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. AIR FORCE Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, has been awarded an $8,800,167 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for model-based intent-driven adaptive software (MIDAS). The objective of this contract is to develop a new approach to evolutionary software development and deployment that extends the results of model-based software engineering and provides an integrated, end-to-end framework for building software that is focused on growth and adaptation. The scope of this effort includes research, design, development, demonstration, testing, integration and delivery of the MIDAS software system that enables rapid adaptation of software to changes in requirements, platforms and computational resources at a scale and speed appropriate for the complex software ecosystem upon which the U.S. government, military and economy depend. Work will be performed in Nashville, Tennessee, and is expected to be completed by May 7, 2024. This award is the result of a competitive acquisition and 20 offers were received. Air Force Research Laboratory, Rome, New York, is the contracting activity (FA8750-20-C-0215). *Small business https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2197963/source/GovDelivery/

By: The Associated Press BEIJING — A study says Southeast Asian countries are cutting defense spending as a result of the economic crisis brought on by the coronavirus outbreak, potentially opening up room for China to further assert its claims in the region. Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, a maritime security expert at the University of Indonesia, writes that slashing defense spending is seen as a relatively easy way to cut costs when countries are facing pressure on their budgets. “Indonesia, for example, has announced it will slash its defense budget this year by nearly US$588 million. Thailand has likewise reduced its defense allocation by $555 million. Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines all face similar pressure,” Darmawan wrote in the online journal of the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank. “Less defense spending will invariably mean less patrols at sea.” China recently announced it will increase its defense spending by 6.6 percent in 2020, despite a major downturn in the country's economic growth due to the pandemic. The increase is the lowest in years, but will still allow China to expand its ability to enforce its territorial claims in the South China Sea and grow its military presence in the Western Pacific and Indian oceans. Another key priority is maintaining a credible threat against Taiwan, the self-governing island democracy that China considers its own territory, to be brought under its control by military force if necessary. China has maintained its presence in the South China Sea throughout the virus outbreak. Recent frictions include Chinese ships shadowing Malaysian mineral exploration operations and the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat by a Chinese maritime security vessel. However, China's foreign minister dismissed claims that the country is exploiting the coronavirus outbreak to expand its regional footprint, labeling such accusations as “sheer nonsense.” State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters at a news conference on Sunday that China is cooperating closely on anti-virus efforts with Southeast Asian countries, several of whom have overlapping territorial claims with China in the strategically vital waterway. While China has long been stepping up its presence in the region, Wang said other countries — likely meaning the United States and its allies — have been creating instability with military flights and sea patrols. “Their ill-intentioned and despicable moves are meant to sow discord between China and [Southeast Asian countries] and undermine the hard-won stability in the region,” Wang said. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/05/26/downward-trend-southeast-asian-countries-cut-defense-spending/

Chiara Vercellone A future where artificial intelligence controls Washington D.C. may not be far off, according to a new book from Peter Singer and August Cole: “Burn-In, a Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution.” Like the authors' previous book, “Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War,” “Burn-In” is a blend of fiction and facts that explore how technology will shape the future. The science fiction thriller showcases over 300 technological trends that the authors believe will push the United States into a new industrial revolution. The story revolves around an FBI agent and its robot partner working to stop a cyber-terrorist who has taken control over the nation's capital. Singer, a strategist and senior fellow at the non-partisan think tank New America, spoke with Chiara Vercellone about what inspired the book, the response from officials how the duo researched it. This interview has been edited for brevity. C4ISRNET: This novel blends fictional characters with extensive research on what technology might be like in the future. You show how AI might have an effect on everything, from politics and economy to our society. Why is this realistic in such a short amount of time? SINGER: We conducted research on everything from compiling the reports on which jobs will be automated, to Amazon patent applications, to interviews with AI scientists, but also people who worked on the water system of Washington D.C. We even did site visits to inside the White House. We used that to essentially project forward not just how AI and robotics are going to be used in your city, your business and your home, but also some of the, frankly, scary new vulnerabilities and trends that they are going to introduce. What are some of the security threats that we're going to be wrestling with, whether it's in your home or how you think about it for an entire city? C4ISRNET: The book is set 20 years from now. Is that the right time frame for the development of all encompassing AI ? SINGER: We had a “no vaporware” rule. Every single technology, every single trend, every single scene in the book had to be pulled from a technology project that is already in motion right now: A technology that already exists or a research project that is already happening, a cyberattack that may not have happened in the U.S. but has happened somewhere else, or has been something that researchers have proved is possible. And, honestly, that kind of grounding, frankly, makes it even more compelling and scarier. C4ISRNET: As artificial intelligence can be used for good to help defend against cyberattacks, it can also be used to carry out these attacks. As the book shows, the FBI uses AI to solve cases more efficiently but D.C. has been taken hostage by a cyberterrorist using the same technology. Are there any risks that officials are taking today in funding the development of this technology? SINGER: I think of when we got computers and they've move to a point where we don't even kind of notice them around us anymore. When you go into your kitchen, there are tons of little red lights of different things that are computerized, but we don't think of them as computers anymore. Relative to AI, so much of the attention has been on this revolt of the robots. But one of the things that we play with in the book is that we're seeing all these applications, but we're also not preparing our economy and our society for these changes that will come. Industrial revolutions are really traumatic: We're going to see everything from job displacement to new political ideologies, even extremist ones, and we're not preparing for that. Even more directly related to the development of AI, we're recreating almost all the mistakes that we made with the regular Internet a generation ago. Even if the internet brought a lot of incredible things, we didn't think about security and the development of it, and that created a lot of consequences. And we're doing the very same thing right now, as we wire up our cities, our homes, into what is now an Internet of Things and an increasingly AI-fueled Internet of Things. C4ISRNET: You and August Cole have been invited to brief the book's lessons to officials at the White House, Congress, CIA and at the Pentagon. What were those conversations like? SINGER: For our past book, “Ghost Fleet,” we got to do everything from White House briefings to go to the Joint Chiefs conference room inside the Pentagon, and the Navy now has a $3 billion shipbuilding program that's called Ghost Fleet. And the same thing has happened with “Burn-In.” Even before it was published, we were able to brief some of its lessons to groups like the Joint Special Operations Command to the NSA and Cyber Command and as you and I are speaking right now, there's a new government report called the Cyber Solarium Commission. It's a bipartisan commission, and they issued a major report of ways to reset U.S. cybersecurity strategy for the future. And it actually begins with a scene written by August Cole and I. So, in many ways, Congress has taken the world of “Burn-In” and moved it into official government reports. They wanted a way to share real cyberthreats, and what they didn't want to happen is what happened to the various reports before 9/11 that warned about the attack but that nobody listened to until after the fact. So, they asked us to help with visualizing that world with the idea that it might emotionally compel them to not make the same mistake. C4ISRNET: What was the process of deciding which technology was developed enough to think it could become a threat in the future? SINGER: We would first build up a baseline of understanding and try and draw upon the wisdom of the crowd. For example, when we were looking at the question of which jobs are likely to be automated, we actually built, as far as I'm aware, the first data set that brought together every job prediction report, around 13 different predictions in total. It included everything from what the World Bank says to what consulting companies say. That gives you that factual grounding, and then you have to put your fiction hat on and you say, “okay, of all of these, which ones are not just the most important to talk about, but are the most interesting and compelling to talk about.” So the husband of the main character is a way that we use to illustrate that many people when they think about automation, they think about a factory worker or losing their job or maybe a truck driver, something blue collar but the data shows that it cuts across not just blue collar, but also white collar. So, we chose to make the character, a contract lawyer who's been automated, and that's not just to show that white collar jobs are at risk here, but it allows you to have that character hit some more compelling human themes. t's really interesting what happens when you read the reports and plans but also talk to not just the Silicon Valley engineers, but all the way up to the billionaires, is there's this incredible and rightful excitement at the world that they're creating. But there's also sometimes a failure to appreciate that their Utopian visions can sometimes seem very dystopian to other parts of society. And you can see this for example, with facial recognition, where they'll talk excitingly about how you're going to use it in a restaurant and use it in a train station, and all the money that's going to be made. And then you pull back and think through everything, from how will the government use this? How do people with a different point of view that the police think about mass scale of face recognition? How does this change on our personal relationships? You think it's great that the greeter to the store will have automated face recognition, and that they'll be able to call me by name as I enter. But how am I going to think about that person? Am I going to think of them as friendlier or is it just the fact that I know the computer gave them my name? The visions of the future can be Utopian, but it can also feel really creepy in other ways. C4ISRNET: How long has this book been in the works? SINGER: The timeline from when you provide the final version of the book to the publisher, and then when it actually comes out in the stores is about nine months. So, we turned in “Burn-In” in fall of 2019 and it's coming out in summer 2020, and that's just the way the book business works. The challenge of this blend is that there are so many things that that were happening, that are actually a scene or a moment from the book. We would start tweeting them out, calling him a #BurnInbookmoment. And sometimes they were something that was cool and exciting maybe a robot that we write about in the book actually being deployed. But sometimes it was something rather scary, a certain kind of attack that had been researched now actually starting to happen. In the longer term, there might be a problem with the technology in the book. I'll give you a an example: In one of the scenes, there is a drone, and it's pretty clear it's an Amazon drone that flies overhead but we don't name if by company, but we describe it and it has a footnote it's Amazon's patent for the drone. We didn't dream up that it had this number of rotors, but this is Amazon's literal plan for it. Now, five to ten years from now, Amazon might change that plan, and they may plan for it to be a six-rotor trial and it turns out it's a four-rotor trial or something. That's where the technology could be thrown off in time, but we were pretty careful. https://www.c4isrnet.com/artificial-intelligence/2020/05/25/five-burn-in-questions-on-the-real-robotic-revolution/

By: Eric Lofgren Congress' unprecedented fiscal response to COVID-19 has many in the defense community wondering whether belt tightening will hit the Pentagon. On May 19, the Congressional Progressive Caucus wrote a letter arguing for substantial defense budget cuts to support additional spending on the pandemic. Nonprofit progressive supporters have been asking to cut a much larger $350 billion each year from the Pentagon in their “Moral Budget” proposal. What the progressives perhaps do not fully appreciate is the “stickiness” of defense budgets. In economics, stickiness refers to rigidity in the movement of wages and prices despite broader economic shifts pushing for new equilibrium. The phenomenon is apparent in defense budgets as well. Most expectations are that the fiscal 2021 budget will remain over $700 billion. Consider an analogy: the 2008 financial crisis. Lehman Brothers collapsed just a couple weeks before fiscal year 2009 started, leaving that $666 billion defense budget largely beyond recall. The following years' budgets were $691 billion, $687 billion, $646 billion and then finally in FY13 a more precipitous 10 percent fall to $578 billion. It took four years for the Pentagon to really feel the squeeze of the financial downturn. The uninitiated may believe COVID-19 happened with enough of lead time to affect the FY21 budget. Congress received the president's budget in February 2020 and has until the start of October to make targeted cuts without encountering another continuing resolution. The defense budget, however, represents the culmination of a multiyear process balancing thousands of stakeholder interests. It reflects a vast amount of information processed at every level of the military enterprise. The Pentagon's work on the FY21 budget request started nearly two years ahead of time and includes a register of funding estimates out to FY25. Moreover, defense programs are devised and approved based on life-cycle cost and schedule estimates. Cuts to a thorough plan may flip the analysis of alternatives on its head, recommending pivots to new systems or architectures and upsetting contract performance. Not only are current budgets shaped by many years of planning, but they get detailed to an almost microscopic level. For example, the Army's FY21 research, development, test and evaluation request totaled $12.8 billion, less than 2 percent of the overall Pentagon request. Yet the appropriation identifies 267 program elements decomposing into a staggering 2,883 budget program activity codes averaging less than $10 million each. Congressional staff is too small to understand the implications of many cost, schedule and technical trade-offs. To gather information on impacts, the Pentagon is thrown into a frenzy of fire drills. More draconian measures, like the FY13 sequestration, leading to indiscriminate, across-the-board cuts can sidestep hard questions but comes at a significant cost to efficiency. Targeted cuts at a strategic level, such as to the nuclear recapitalization programs and other big-ticket items, can expect stiff resistance. First, there is real concern about great power competition and the damage that may be wrought by acting on short-term impulses. Second, targeted programs and their contractors will immediately report the estimated number of job losses by district. Before measures can get passed, a coalition of congressional members negatively impacted may oppose the cuts. Resistance is intensified considering the proximity to Election Day. Budget stickiness is built into the political process. The FY22 budget is perhaps the first Pentagon budget that can start inching downward. More than likely, severe cuts aren't in the offing until FY23 or FY24 at the very earliest. That gives time for policymakers to reflect on the scale of the rebalancing between defense and other priorities. In some important ways, congressional control of the Pentagon through many thousands of budget line items restricts its own flexibility. For example, continuing resolutions lock in program funding to the previous year's level until political disagreements can be resolved. The military cannot stick to its own plans, much less start new things. If budget lines were detailed at a higher level, such as by major organization or capability area, then the Pentagon could make more trade-offs while Congress debates. Similarly, if the Pentagon had more budget flexibility, then Congress could more easily cut top lines and allow Pentagon leaders to figure out how to maximize with the constraint during the year of execution. Congress could gain the option to defer the hard questions that can make cuts politically difficult. The Space Force recently released a proposal for consolidating budget line items into higher-level capability areas. It reflects the idea that portfolio-centric management is an efficient method of handling rapid changes in technologies, requirements or financial guidance resulting from economic shocks. Until such reforms are pursued, expect defense budgets to remain sticky. Eric Lofgren is a research fellow at the Center for Government Contracting at George Mason University. He manages a blog and podcast on weapon systems acquisition. He previously served as a senior analyst at Technomics Inc., supporting the U.S. Defense Department's Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation office. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/26/will-defense-budgets-remain-sticky-after-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Le secteur de la défense pourra jouer un rôle important pour le rebond économique du pays, estime Christian de Boissieu. Il ne se délocalise pas. Il suscite la création d'emplois qualifiés. Un plan de relance dans la défense permettrait ainsi de renforcer la sécurité et la souveraineté, tout en stimulant l'investissement privé. Par Christian de Boissieu (professeur émérite à l'université Paris-I et vice-président du Cercle des économistes) Publié le 20 mai 2020 à 8h50Mis à jour le 20 mai 2020 à 11h03 La crise actuelle affecte l'économie française avec une ampleur inégalée depuis 1945 : la récession est à la fois imparable et profonde. Tous les secteurs sont touchés. L'ampleur du rebond dépendra, entre autres facteurs, de la capacité de l'Etat à accompagner la reprise, ce qui passe par un plan de relance aux deux niveaux, national et européen. L'enjeu est alors d'identifier les secteurs pertinents. Par hypothèse, le secteur de la défense est orienté vers la sécurité et la souveraineté, au moment même où ces valeurs s'affirment avec force. Il pourrait également jouer un rôle important pour relancer l'économie du pays. Le secteur industriel de la défense ne s'est pas délocalisé ; il n'a donc pas à se relocaliser comme d'autres activités stratégiques. Il crée un grand nombre d'emplois qualifiés. Les entreprises de défense occupent une place centrale dans le système national d'innovation. Elles réalisent, pour leurs activités civiles et de défense, 25 % de la R & D effectuée par les entreprises françaises. Elles ont une activité de dépôt de brevets importante, plusieurs entreprises de défense se classant chaque année dans le top 10 des brevets déposés à l'Inpi, et elles participent grandement à la structuration des réseaux de recherche. Efficience opérationnelle Un plan de relance incluant la défense aurait un impact économique notable, renforcé par la dualité militaire/civil des activités de défense. Les dépenses d'équipements militaires ou de R & D sont des dépenses d'investissement ; elles suscitent des retombées de nature à stimuler la productivité. Pour des raisons stratégiques, les chaînes de production et de recherche sont également plus nationales que dans le reste de l'économie. Les études montrent que ces spécificités se traduisent par un effet multiplicateur des dépenses publiques élevé (multiplicateur d'impact sur le PIB d'environ 2 au bout de dix ans). Elles indiquent également que, loin de les évincer, les dépenses d'équipement militaire ou de recherche dans la défense sont complémentaires des investissements privés. Financer la R & D défense permettrait ainsi de soutenir la recherche française à un moment où celle-ci va être fortement affectée. En outre, la relance par la défense non seulement ne dégrade pas la balance commerciale, à la différence de nombreux secteurs, mais, au contraire, l'améliore en stimulant la recherche, en augmentant l'efficacité des processus de production et en renforçant, aux yeux de l'extérieur, l'efficience opérationnelle du matériel militaire français. Par ailleurs, la base industrielle et technologique de défense a toujours eu une forte dimension locale en contribuant à l'aménagement du territoire et au maintien de l'activité dans de nombreuses zones industrielles sous-dotées. Cette proximité ne serait que renforcée par une relance passant aussi, et sans exclusivité, par la défense. Stimuler l'investissement privé Une telle relance doit d'abord être nationale, mais elle doit s'accompagner d'une initiative de l'Union européenne. C'est l'occasion unique de faire enfin décoller l'Europe de la défense. Ainsi, la proposition initiale d'un budget de 13 milliards d'euros pour le Fonds européen de défense pour les six prochaines années, soit moins de 1 % du budget de l'UE, doit être retenue au moment où les autres continents ne cessent d'augmenter leurs dépenses de défense. Un plan de relance dans la défense permettrait ainsi de renforcer la sécurité et la souveraineté tout en stimulant l'investissement privé, la recherche civile et en provoquant un impact économique important. Autant d'éléments nécessaires dans la période qui s'ouvre. Christian de Boissieu est président du Conseil scientifique, de la chaire Economie de défense, IHEDN et membre du Cercle des économistes. https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/opinion-un-plan-de-relance-pour-la-defense-1204431

By ARIE EGOZIon May 26, 2020 at 5:26 PM TEL AVIV: The strict U.S warning to Israel to limit ties with China has its first result as the Chinese failed to win a tender for the construction of the giant desalination plant in central Israel. The Palmahim site is in close proximity to Israel's missile test and satellite launch facility. The Soreq 2 facility, with the capability to process 200 million cubic meters of water per year, is expected to be the largest of its kind in the world, increasing the state's desalination capacity by about 35%. The new desalination plant joins five facilities already operating in Israel. Two weeks after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warned against further Chinese involvement in projects in Israel the Chinese company lost and an Israeli company, IDE. That may lead to a confrontation with the Chinese. Two weeks ago, Netanyahu told Pompeo that the issue was under discussion by the Foreign Investment Committee at the Treasury. The US fears Chinese investments could create dependencies on China's companies and countries, and is working to prevent them. The next challenge: the Chinese and the power companies. In coming days, a decision will be made whether to award the Chinese government company China Harbor's bid for the power plant of Ramat Hovav, part of the huge reform of Israel's once government-owned electricity sector. “The fact that the (Pompeo) visit takes place in these problematic times proves its urgency ” an Israeli source told BD. Pompeo came to Israel with a very strict message – stop all Chinese investment in Israel, either in high tech companies or infrastructure. Israeli officials said the message relayed during Pompeo's visit included a very specific political warning – Israel must stop any action that strengthens the Chinese Communist Party, even if that means canceling planned projects. For context, think of the numerous times President Trump has called the coronavirus the Chinese virus and blamed China for supposedly hiding the truth about the virus' origins. https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/israel-pressed-by-us-blocks-first-big-chinese-deal/

“Last year we hired 1,800 people, which was the most hired for 30 years I think,” BIW President Dirk Lesko said. "We probably would have hired 500 or 600 more people last year if we could have.” By PAUL MCLEARYon May 26, 2020 at 5:22 PM WASHINGTON: A round of highly-anticipated talks between Maine's Bath Iron Works shipyard and the local labor union representing many of the company's 6,800 employees kicked off this morning, with both sides hoping to keep one of the nation's most important shipyards humming. The labor negotiations could have a major impact on delivery of Arleigh Burke destroyers to the Navy, which BIW President Dirk Lesko told me are already running six months behind schedule even as he scrambles to hire several thousand new workers. “Last year we hired 1,800 people, which was the most hired for 30 years I think,” Lesko said. “The challenge that we have is that, at least prior to COVID-19, the economy was very good, and there's much less of a manufacturing sector to draw people from here than in other parts of the US. We probably would have hired 500 or 600 more people last year if we could have.” Some 1,800 new employees are being trained up to replace hundreds of older tradesmen who retired over the past several years after being hired during the last shipbuilding binge in the 1980s. Training the new group has taken time, and slowed some projects down. “Those people are leaving in groups, requiring us to replace them in big groups,” Lesko said. The talks come after attendance rates at the shipyard dipped by more than half in the early days of the COVID-19 crisis, Workers stayed home due to local closures and the union pushed back over the use of non-union subcontractors. At one point in late March, only 41 percent of workers showed up for their shifts; by the end of April, only about 45 percent of Local S6 union members had clocked in over the previous month. The delays in work on the destroyers came well before COVID-19 however, and stemmed from a variety of issues: the aging workforce, the time it takes to train skilled workers, and the lingering effects of the delayed work on the Navy's troubled DDG-1000 Zumwalt destroyers, which is years behind schedule and has eaten up a good portion of the limited pier space at Bath. Lesko said the workers on the Zumwalt will turn back to their Arleigh Burke work later this year, freeing up labor and space at the pier to begin eating away at those delay times. But the low attendance rates at the shipyard, demands for pay increases, and company's use of some non-union subcontractors for some work are major points of contention between the company and the union. Last week, union leadership posted this on their Facebook page, “it is disheartening that, the very week our membership returns to work as normal after being encouraged to stay out and stay safe due to COVID-19 they are rewarded by subbing out their work. Claiming there were so many people out of work they are now further behind schedule.” Those issues will begin to be hashed out this week as the two sides look to get production of the Navy's workhorse destroyers back on track. Lesko told me the schedule slippages occurred before the COVID personnel shortages, but certainly haven't made up time with so many skilled workers staying home. The company currently has 11 Arleigh Burkes under contract with six under construction, ships that will be a critical part of the Navy's long and troubled effort to build a 355-ship fleet by the end of the decade. “They're in a tough position going into the labor negotiations because the unions will say ‘you can't afford a strike so you'll need to pay,'” naval analyst Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute said. But any extra costs to the company would incur could make the costs to the Navy also go up. “That could make it harder for Bath to compete” for any future destroyer work, Clark said. The company had plans to hire another thousand workers this year before the COVID disruption, which stopped the hiring process. “We had a strong pipeline of people in our training programs in place, and our facilities were coming together in a way that I felt pretty confident about,” Lesko said. He added the company plans to get back to that as soon as possible. While the new workers are being trained and are making their way to the waterfront, the company has dealt with a few stinging defeats. The loss of the $795 million contract to build the first 10 of a new class of guided missile frigates for the Navy to Wisconsin-based Fincantieri Marinette Marine was a major blow to Bath, as the company looks to life after destroyer work runs out in the coming years. The company also lost out on a hard-fought effort to build the Coast Guard's Offshore Patrol Cutters in 2016. Lesko said the company will be in the running for the possibility of a recompete for the frigate contract after the first 10 ships are built, which would put another 10 ships up for grabs. He also expressed hope in talk coming from the Navy that it might be in the market for a new class of large surface combatants in the coming years, but those plans have yet to be fleshed out. Much of the Navy's future plans remain in limbo until Defense Secretary Mark Esper finishes his review of the Navy's force structure plans some time late this summer, which will guide the Navy's shipbuilding blueprint for the coming decades. Given the outcome of the November presidential election and knock-on effects of the ballooning federal deficit, however, those plans could change again next year as priorities, and budgets, change. These uncertainties are deeply worrying for the Navy and the Pentagon leadership, as they can ill-afford to lose a shipyard at a time when ship construction and repair are already stressed after years of budget cuts and reduced building rates. The Navy has ambitious plans for a new class of Columbia nuclear-powered submarines, modernizing Virginia-class subs, finishing up the Ford-class aircraft carriers and starting work on the new frigate program. There is also talk of building new classes of smaller amphibious ships and supply vessels to help the Marines in their own transformation efforts. This will take multiple shipyards working on multiple projects at once. In the near-term, there's widespread concern over how shipyards are dealing with local manufacturing shutdowns as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Navy acquisition chief James Geurts told reporters last week that the Navy has seen around 250 suppliers close due to the pandemic in the past two months, but he's “seeing many more of those open than close,” in recent days. His office is tracking 10,000 companies and suppliers, and of those 250, all but 35 are open now, he said. “While we haven't seen major impacts to current work yet on most of our shipbuilding programs, we are keeping a very close eye on downstream work to make sure that [if] a part we were expecting in September doesn't show up, we understand how to adjust to that,” he said. Lesko said that he hasn't seen much disruption at his shipyard. “There have been modest levels of disruption, a relatively small number of suppliers” that have temporarily shuttered, he said. “We've been able to work through all of that with our existing supplier base. I would not want to leave you with the impression that I don't think the supply base in some cases is fragile, but at least at this point, they have been able to support us and have done quite well.” https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/bath-shipyard-scrambles-as-thousands-retire-months-behind-on-destroyer-work-says-president/