6 février 2019 | International, C4ISR

Why 5G is a big deal for militaries throughout the world

By: William Schneider, Jr

The public discussion of 5th generation (5G) mobile telephone service has been seen by many – perhaps most – in the United States as just another step in the evolution of mobile communications, a remarkable scientific and commercial development that has wrought a wide range of benefits world-wide over the preceding quarter-century.

More recently, the focus has shifted to 5G as a proxy for the U.S.-China trade and technology rivalry. The Trump administration's effort to change the terms-of-trade with China has brought the subject of commercial and international trade consequences of the proliferation of advanced technologies into sharp relief. The U.S. efforts to extradite the chief financial officer of the Chinese telecommunication equipment developer and producer, Huawei from her detention in Canada for export control violations have added a geopolitical spin to what has become an increasingly tangled issue.

These aspects of the story, while true, do not begin to describe why 5G is such a big deal.

The technologies of 5G communication will create a backbone technology for high speed low latency telecommunication. It will serve as the basis for the global internet-based “Internet of Things” (IoT) with fundamental changes in how goods and services of every imaginable types (and many, perhaps most not yet imagined) can be developed, employed, supported, and replaced.

The importance of new technologies is not their ability to do what existing technology can do now, only faster, better, and cheaper even though that is a likely consequence. In the case of 5G, its ultra-low latency (potentially hundreds of times faster than current 4G LTE) produced by its vast bandwidth that allows users to do things that previously could not be done by any practical application of existing technologies.

The enormous scale of capital expenditure involved in rapidly bringing 5G technology to market – $325 billion by 2025 – to develop and produce the hardware and software needed to deliver early 5G capabilities is unlike any other infrastructure project. Reflecting its national commitment to 5G, nearly half of the world-wide investment in 5G development and employment will be made by China.

The extraordinarily low latency of 5G will allow services such as augmented and virtual reality and an immersive and tactile internet that cannot be delivered by 4G or earlier technology. 5G technology also inverts the classic paradigm of computational scarcity at the network's edge (e.g. the mobile device) and computational abundance at the center. With computational abundance now at the network edge, the employment of computationally intense emerging technologies (e.g. AI, quantum computing and cryptography, facial recognition) can be performed by mobile devices throughout the network.

5G as part of China's belt-and-road initiative

While Western governments have tended to see 5G as an important but incremental extension of existing telecommunications services, China has recognized the value of 5G technology with its belt-and-road initiative (BRI). That effort is China's $1 trillion global infrastructure project to expand its economic presence and support for its interests on a global scale. China sees it as a key step in becoming the world's leading economic power by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist state.

The project has several components, one of which has become known as the “digital road.” It anticipates projecting the deployment of China's 5G telecommunication infrastructure over the dozens of countries now affiliated with the initiative. The 5G telecommunications network would be integrated with another Chinese project, its Beidou (“Big Dipper”) precision navigation and timing system (now in the latter stage of fielding) to displace the U.S. Global Positioning System enabling China's telecommunications and PNT system to dominate the future IoT and other in areas affected by China's belt-and-road project.

5G as an instrument of China's international security policy

China's global security ambitions overlap its economic aspirations. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, the belt-and-road initiative and its associated activities were incorporated in the Chinese Constitution at the 19th CPC. In that context belt and road is a project of the Party, and not the State which significantly elevates its security role and importance to its national leadership.

The BRI creates a global economic presence that has become a combination of commercial enablers for its “Maritime Silk Road” and forward air and naval installations for China's armed forces. These include air and naval facilities in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, Jiwani, Pakistan (~80-km west of its large commercial port at Gwadar, and a naval base in Sri Lanka (Hambantota, which China acquired in a debt-for-sovereignty swap when Sri Lanka could not service its BRI debt to China). China's switch from a regional to an aspiring global power reflect its aspirations that have shaped the CPC's rule since Mao: the deconstruction the old-world order in favor of one which gives China its rightful place at the zenith of a new international order.

The incorporation of the technology 5G telecommunication and Chinese controlled PNT parallels a trend in US military practice. DoD military communications, like China's is moving to a wireless, mobile, and cloud-based IT systems built around 5G technology. China's convergence of its 5G, BRI presence (military and civil), PNT and dominant role in the BRI member states are aimed at becoming the world's leading economic and military power by the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist State in 2049.

5G is both an enabler and product of China's remarkable economic growth since 1979 and is likely to become a central element of China's economic and military power for the 1st half of the 21st century.

William Schneider, Jr. is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former under secretary of State and chairman of the Defense Science Board.

https://www.c4isrnet.com/opinion/2019/02/05/why-5g-is-a-big-deal-for-militaries-throughout-the-world

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    1 octobre 2019 | International, Aérospatial

    Is rapid prototyping the key to space?

    By: Nathan Strout Space technology is developing so fast that by the time the tech makes it through the acquisitions process and into orbit, it's practically obsolete. “The technology is moving at such an accelerated pace and these technologies are on such a steep trajectory that the traditional acquisition system just frankly can't keep up,” explained Ken Peterman, president of government systems for Viasat. To combat this trend, the U.S. Air Force's space acquisition arm, the Space and Missile Systems Center, is focused on quickly building prototypes as a way to speed up development and bring nontraditional companies into the Pentagon's space. Using tools such as other transaction authorities, Section 804 — a rapid acquisition approach that aims to field capabilities within two to five years — the Space Enterprise Consortium and Air Force pitch days, SMC is encouraging an acquisitions model focused on prototyping over the slower, more cumbersome Pentagon procurement procedure. The missile warning example Under the Pentagon's normal acquisition process, it could take the better part of a decade — or longer — from contract award to launching a satellite into orbit. Consider the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared satellite system. OPIR is supposed to replace the Space-Based Infrared System as the nation's premier early warning missile detection and tracking satellite system, providing significantly more capacity than the current constellation. But under traditional acquisitions, OPIR wouldn't be available until nine years after contract award. That wasn't going to cut it. So service leaders took a new approach. Instead of going through the traditional acquisition process, the Air Force would adopt a rapid prototyping approach to accelerate development. And rather than develop large, exquisite satellites meant to last generations, new satellites would be smaller, less expensive and built for replacement in three- to four-year cycles. “We have existing programs of record ... that continue to take the four or five or six years or whatever that we originally contracted for. I think our goal going into the future is to get more on a three- to four-year cycle for our satellites, not just in production but also in terms of their amount of principal time on work,” said SMC Commander Lt. Gen. John Thompson. Lockheed Martin used this approach to build three OPIR satellites. Instead of subcontracting with one company to build the satellites' payloads, Lockheed Martin is having two teams compete to build the best OPIR payload. This not only mitigates the risk of failure by having two competing prototypes, but also moves to a fail-early model where a successful prototype is less likely to lead to issues later on. Applied to OPIR, rapid prototyping has cut the projected timeline for the project in half. “It is harder to move fast if you haven't done the underlying innovation, prototyping and technology development that allows those systems to go forward. So even when you look at things like Next Gen OPIR, which is not a three- to four-year cycle, we're bringing that from what would have been 108 months down into the five-year timeline; that was the fuel,” said Col. Dennis Bythewood, program executive officer for space development at SMC. Hither the Space Enterprise Consortium OPIR is one example of the rapid prototyping approach the Air Force is taking with space procurement. But perhaps the best example of SMC's rapid prototyping approach is the Space Enterprise Consortium, or SpEC. Established in 2017 through an other transaction authority, or OTA, SpEC is an organization comprised of 325 members who can apply to build space-related prototypes. To date, the Air Force has issued more than 50 awards to the group to develop prototypes, ranging from a ground system for OPIR to a new space vehicle that could extend the Link 16 network to beyond line-of-sight communications. Often, the consortium awards multiple contracts for one project, allowing companies to compete to produce a viable technology. Although not every prototype succeeds, the approach allows for failure earlier in the development process than the traditional acquisition model. “[This strategy] allows individual components to fail, but us to continue to move forward. And that's a place where you can see competitive prototyping with multiple vendors going head-to-head. I don't know which one will be successful when we start, but there's a much higher likelihood that I'm going to end up with multiple success at the tail end,” Bythewood said. Because the consortium specializes in OTAs, it's able to open the door to nontraditional companies that don't have the time or resources to go through the regular acquisition process under the Department of Defense. “OTAs are good in the sense that they're a lot more flexible, they're not hard contracts — they're just agreements. And in that respect, they attract nontraditional suppliers, people who haven't been working with DoD and don't want to recall all their accounting systems, so that they can comply with all the cost-reporting requirements for DoD and everything like that. So for a lot of companies, they're attractive,” said Cristina Chaplain, director of the Government Accountability Office's contracting and national security acquisitions team. Small startups and venture capital-funded companies are a big part of commercial growth in space. But for a long time, these companies have been frustrated in their attempts to engage with the Pentagon on space, Chaplain said. OTAs, and the consortium in particular, knock down barriers between the DoD and small, commercial, space-focused companies. Of course, working with less traditional companies also opens the door to increased risk. These companies aren't necessarily familiar with the way the Pentagon does business. And even if OTAs offer flexibility, working with the government be a major challenge. That's why SpEC was designed with mentorship in mind. In the SpEC framework, there's room for these small companies to partner with larger, more established players. Kay Sears, Lockheed Martin's vice president and general manager for military space, explained that defense contractors can work with SpEC to find innovative startup companies that need help bringing their new technologies to bare for the Pentagon. The result is a symbiotic relationship, where prime contractors such as Lockheed can take smaller companies under their wing as they navigate the complex world of the DoD, while the startups can help Lockheed innovate. “We're not asking those companies to become defense companies, we're asking them to actually stay commercial and stay motivated to their original business plan, but to work with us and we can mentor them to help develop that technology,” Sears said. “So we have to find those nuggets of commercial capability and commercial innovation, and then bridge that into the mission understanding that we have and the mission systems that we can contract (for) and deliver.” ‘The darker side' While the Air Force is quick to tout the expected benefits of the SpEC approach, there are potential downsides. For one, transparency. “The darker side is that it's harder to have good management and oversight if you're not requiring all the same things from the contractors. You're not getting the same kind of reporting,” Chaplain said. The Government Accountability Office can help hold the Pentagon and contractors accountable over the long lifetime of a program contract, tracking spending increases, delays and failures. And the GAO is able to provide some oversight for OTAs, however it's more difficult than programs going through the regular acquisitions process, Chaplain explained. Another problem is funding. The rapid prototyping approach requires more money up front and a less risk-averse approach. Next Gen OPIR will be a test run for whether Congress can get on board with that approach for space. As the Air Force sped up OPIR's timeline with rapid prototyping, it created a significant increase in their near-term budget. For fiscal 2020, the Pentagon asked for $1.4 billion for the program. That's a $459 million increase over what was projected for FY20 during the last budget cycle. The House has balked at that amount, authorizing $1 billion of the requested funding. The Senate Appropriations Committee has taken the opposite approach. Not only did Senate appropriators vote to fully fund the request; they threw in an additional $536 million to fully fund the program. As the senators noted in their report on the bill, OPIR will serve as a test case for whether Congress will support SMC's rapid prototyping approach. “The Committee believes the program will be a[n] exemplar for rapid acquisition of space programs, whether the program succeeds or fails,” the report read. “Failure will have implications for Congress's willingness to fund future programs using the National Defense Authorization Act section 804 rapid prototyping and fielding authorities for similarly large, or even middle tier programs, for years to come. Alternatively, if the program is to have any chance of success, the [Defense] Department cannot continue to rely on reprogramming requests for its funding.” The once and future SpEC Even as the fight over OPIR funding continues in Congress, the Space Enterprise Consortium and its funding has grown by leaps and bounds. “It has been a vast success story for [SpEC]. We began that contract with a $100 million ceiling, which meant that we could execute many different actions within it up to about $100,000. We took that five times higher within the first year,” Bythewood said. And SMC seems keen to build on that approach. On Aug. 20, the Space and Missiles Systems Center issued a request for information expressing an interest in re-competing the SpEC OTA agreement. This new SpEC would have a $12 billion ceiling over 10 years. “We're not going to be awarding a $1 billion contract within SpEC OTA. We're looking at having smaller competitive prototyping efforts that get our products off on the right start in order to deliver capabilities sooner. So if there's a fear ... that we're going to be executing huge programs of record under the SpEC OTA vehicle, that's a kind of [unfounded] fear,” Thompson said. Another example of the rapid prototyping initiative is the Air Force's new pitch days concept, where on designated days, companies can present new technologies to the government and potentially win a Section 804 contract within minutes. The Air Force has been holding pitch days this year for a variety of platforms. The Air Force will be holding its first “Space Pitch Day” from Nov. 4-8 with a focus on launch systems, data mining, space visualization and space communications. Whether it's SpEC, pitch days or working closely with contractors, it's clear SMC sees rapid prototyping as the way forward for military space. “We recognize that when you try new things, some will work great, some will work moderately well and some you might fail fast on. But that's OK because clearly we need to do things differently,” said Peterman of Viasat. “We applaud the kinds of things these senior leaders are doing to try to drive change, get these cutting-edge capabilities into the war fighters' hands as quickly as possible.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2019/09/30/is-rapid-prototyping-the-key-to-space/

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