28 janvier 2021 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

Opinion: Are Flat Pentagon Budgets The New Up Or The New Down?

Byron Callan January 26, 2021

The Biden administration probably will not unveil an outyear spending plan for the Defense Department until the late spring of 2021 at the earliest, and more likely it will come out with the fiscal 2023 budget submission in February 2022. The administration should, however, be commenting on some of the bigger changes as different reviews and assessments are completed before that budget plan is released.

Consensus now is that Pentagon spending will be flat at least in the first term of the Biden administration, though analysts are not clear on what this means. Will the Pentagon's budget be unchanged from the level that was appropriated for fiscal 2021? Will it be flat in inflation-adjusted terms, which means it would rise at 2% annually in current dollars? Or will the budget be flat in current dollars, which would entail a roughly 2% annual decline in Pentagon purchasing power, assuming inflation is 2%? Each would have different outcomes for the spending that would flow to contractors.

Defense optimists could argue that flat budgets historically have not lasted too long. There were periods in which budgets were flat over 2-4 years annually in the late 1950s, early 1960s and mid-1990s. Flat periods, however, were succeeded by growth—usually because of a crisis or a new military contingency.

No one has a working crystal ball that will show what is ahead for the 2020s. There are reasons to believe, however, that the 2020s are different. Although interest rates are at historic lows, the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP is at levels seen during World War II. There is pent-up demand for non-defense discretionary spending—notably for infrastructure, and an aging U.S. population will likely demand more health care and other “social” spending. “Endless wars” in the Middle East may temper Americans' willingness to engage in new overseas missions, unless a major provocation occurs that is akin to the 9/11 attacks. The flat budget period could last longer than the post-World War II era suggests.

Is “flat” good for contractors? That depends. Markets started to digest that U.S. defense spending was flattening in 2020. The largest U.S. defense contractors underperformed the S&P 500 in 2020 and are doing so again in the first days of 2021. The initial market verdict is that flat is not good.

The assessment might be true, but it is going to depend on two factors: how the Pentagon reallocates resources in a flat budget environment and how contractors change their strategies and portfolios.

A flat top-line defense budget could be positive if the Pentagon can successfully cut military personnel and operations and maintenance (O&M) spending. Both are tall tasks. Winding down operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East is not going to free up significant troop numbers, and in any event, both are apt to exert gravitational pulls from which the U.S. cannot easily break free. Global security risks are not going to allow the sort of force structure cuts that occurred at the end of the Cold War and the Korean and Vietnam wars. Readiness and training also will remain a priority in this environment.

Spending on military personnel and O&M that keeps pace with inflation may place even more pressure on investment. If those accounts grow at 1-2% annually, in a flat top-line period, that will put even more pressure on investment. Still, while there has been no indication so far, it is conceivable that the Biden administration will propose reductions in force structure and will attack O&M costs with more vigor. It will take 1-2 years at least to realize those savings, but they could be applied to modernize a smaller military.

For a number of years, the Pentagon attempted to retire older “legacy” weapon systems in order to fund new investment, but Congress has stymied efforts to muster out older Navy cruisers, aircraft carrier refueling systems and aircraft such as the A-10. The Defense Department could renew this line of attack, but it may be reminded of the old adage that repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. The Pentagon will have to change its approach here by offering more incentives to states and districts that could be affected by the elimination of squadrons or units, and it has to be more forceful in confronting contractors whose net interests are harmed by such moves.

A final thought is how contractors' strategies might change. In 2020 and so far in 2021, outperformance was evidenced by small-to-midsize contractors that appeared better aligned with Pentagon investment priorities in artificial intelligence, autonomy, supply chain resilience and low-cost weapons. The largest contractors may be able to unlock value in a flat top-line environment if they can spin off segments that are stagnant or declining. Sprawling program portfolios are apt to perform more in line with market growth rates, and that is not a recipe for superior performance.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/opinion-are-flat-pentagon-budgets-new-or-new-down

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10 octobre 2018 | International, Naval

Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - October 9, 2018
NAVY NAVMAR Applied Sciences Corp.,* Warminster, Pennsylvania, is awarded $7,707,370 for cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order N6833519F0432 against a previously issued basic ordering agreement (N68335-15-G-0013). This delivery order provides for the Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase III work that derives from, extends, or completes an effort performed under SBIR Topics N08-008 entitled “Commandable Mobile Anti-Submarine Warfare Sensor,” N08-023 titled “Precision High Altitude Sonobuoy Emplacement,” and N101-042 titled “Environmental Wideband Acoustic Receiver and Source.” The tasks include performance modeling and simulation, fabrication, component integration, test, training, and prototype procurement activities in support of the Extended Life Sonobuoy/Automated Extended Life Sonobuoy program. Work will be performed in Warminster, Pennsylvania, and is expected to be completed in October 2022. Fiscal 2019 research, development, test and evaluation (Navy) funds in the amount of $1,690,000 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the fiscal year. The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Lakehurst, New Jersey, is the contracting activity. *Small Business https://dod.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1657693/
2 juin 2020 | International, Naval

Pandemic Hits Navy’s New Nuke Submarine Program
Work on the missile tubes for the Navy's part of the nation's nuclear triad is months behind schedule after Babcock was smacked hard by the pandemic. By PAUL MCLEARYon June 01, 2020 at 5:23 PM WASHINGTON: The Navy's top priority — its new nuclear-powered Columbia-class submarine — has been struck by the COVID-19 virus. Workers' absences at a critical supplier have delayed construction and welding of the boat's missile tubes by several months a senior Navy official said today, and the service is scrambling to make that time up. While the service and its contractors are looking for ways to reclaim that time, the situation is something that Navy and Pentagon officials have most feared. Large-scale work on the first of the twelve planned Columbia submarines is slated to kick off in 2021, with deliveries starting in 2030 — just in time to begin replacing the Cold War-era Ohio-class subs as the Navy's leg of the nation's nuclear triad. The subs will carry 70 percent of the warheads allowed by the New Start treaty with Russia. Head of the Columbia program, Rear Adm. Scott Pappano, said during a video conference sponsored by the Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance today that the work experienced “a hiccup” earlier this year when less than 30 percent of workers at UK-based Babcock Marine showed up for work during the height of the COVID outbreak, leading to setbacks in the work schedule. “There was an interruption in our ability to do work,” Pappano said, calling the delay of several months a “worst case” scenario that would stick if no actions were taken to speed up work going forward. “We're analyzing the plan right now,” he added. “Prioritizing what tubes go where and then coming up with mid-term and long-term recovery plans to go deal with that.” Pappano said the Navy and industry may hire more workers and bring in more vendors to buy that time back. The missile tubes have already caused the service some pain. In 2018, contractor BWX, contracted to deliver three tubes to Electric Boat, discovered problems before the tubes were delivered, eventually paying $27 million to fix the problems. The company later said it is considering getting out of the missile tube business with the Navy, leaving BAE Systems as the only US-based company capable of doing the work. The Navy is walking a tightrope on its Virginia and Columbia programs, and any slip on one program will affect the other. The two share the same missile tube design, which will also be fitted onto the UK's forthcoming Dreadnaught class of submarines. “One of the biggest risks to Columbia is if Virginia gets out of its cadence,” James Geurts, the Navy's acquisition chief, told reporters late last year. Once the Columbia subs begin rolling out of Electric Boat's shipyard, the Navy will have to produce one Columbia and two Virginias per year, a pace of submarine building the service has not seen in decades. But Columbia will remain the Navy's top focus. Geurts said he's structured both programs in a way that the shared supplier base is aware of what's needed well in advance, but “if not, we can back off a little to make sure Columbia is successful.” Despite the setback, Babcock's workforce has recovered in recent weeks, “and essentially they're above 90% capacity” on the production line, Pappano said. “So my assessment is they're essentially back up — or close to it — not where they were before” the virus struck. https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/covid-19-hits-navys-newest-nuke-submarine-program/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2006.02.20&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
19 février 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - February 18, 2020
NAVY East Coast Repair & Fabrication LLC,* Norfolk, Virginia (N00024-20-D-4411; Lot 1) (N00024-20-D-4413; Lot 2); and Colonna's Shipyard Inc.,* Norfolk, Virginia (N00024-20-D-4412; Lot 1) (N00024-20-D-4414; Lot 2), are awarded firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contracts for ship repair, maintenance and modernization of non-nuclear surface ships assigned to or visiting Norfolk, Virginia, via the rolling admissions solicitation process. Awards reflecting the final option period under Lot 1 have a maximum ceiling value of $250,000,000; awards reflecting the final option period under Lot 2 have a maximum ceiling value of $100,000,000. At the time of the IDIQ awards, each awardee under both Lot 1 and Lot 2 will receive the $10,000 minimum guarantee via delivery order. These multiple award IDIQ contracts are for repair, maintenance and modernization of non-nuclear Navy surface ships undergoing Chief of Naval Operations-scheduled maintenance availabilities in Norfolk, Virginia. These availabilities can be docking or non-docking availabilities and will be procured via competitive delivery order solicitations amongst the IDIQ contract holder. Each awardee of a delivery order for an availability will provide the facilities and human resources capable of completing, coordinating and integrating multiple areas of ship maintenance, repair and modernization. Work will be performed in Norfolk, Virginia, and is expected to be completed by February 2021. Fiscal 2020 operations and maintenance (Navy) funding in the amount of $10,000 per delivery order (four delivery orders total; $40,000 total) will be obligated at time of each IDIQ award and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. These contracts were competitively procured via the Federal Business Opportunities website, with two offers received in response to solicitation N00024-19-R-4412. The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington, District of Columbia, is the contracting activity. Rolls-Royce Corp., Indianapolis, Indiana, is awarded a $62,400,402 modification (P00016) to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-17-C-0081). This modification exercises an option to procure 29 AE1107C engines for Navy V-22 aircraft. Work will be performed in Indianapolis, Indiana, and is expected to be completed December 2021. Fiscal 2019 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $21,517,380; and fiscal 2020 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $40,883,022 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. General Atomics, San Diego, California, is awarded a $25,200,747 cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order (N00019-20-F-0521) against a previously issued basic ordering agreement (N00019-16-G-0006). This delivery order procures Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) Depot Planning Phase II efforts, including depot level logistics support analysis, engineering support for logistics, supportability analysis, maintenance planning, reliability maintenance, technical manual development and engineering support as it directly correlates to depot planning for the USS Gerald Ford (CVN 78) and USS John F. Kennedy (CVN 79). Additional efforts include those required to complete the Depot Planning EMALS logistics products necessary in support of an in-service EMALS. Work will be performed in San Diego, California (99.9%); and Tupelo, Mississippi (0.1%), and is expected to be completed February 2022. Fiscal 2020 research, development, test and evaluation (Navy) funds in the amount of $4,787,000 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. Boston Ship Repair LLC, Boston, Massachusetts, is awarded a $14,358,866 firm-fixed-price contract (N32205-20-C-4006) for a 90-calendar day shipyard availability for the overhaul dry-docking availability of USNS John Lenthall (T-AO 189). The $14,358,866 consists of the amounts listed in the following areas: category "A" work item cost, additional government requirement, other direct costs and the general and administrative costs. Work will include furnish general services, hull steel replacement, tank painting, stability testing, degaussing conduit removal from tanks and inserting bulkheads, diesel engine repair, structural steel gauging surveys, flight deck non-skid, flight deck safety net inspection and weight testing, steel replacement and underway replenishment systems repairs. The contract includes options, which, if exercised, would bring the total contract value to $16,867,699. Funds will be obligated Feb. 18, 2020. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and is expected to begin on March 9, 2020, and is expected to be completed by June 6, 2020. Fiscal 2020 Navy working capital funds in the amount of $14,358,866 excluding options, are obligated at the time of the award and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was competitively procured, with proposals solicited via the Federal Business Opportunities website and two offers were received. The Navy Military Sealift Command, Norfolk, Virginia, is the contracting activity. General Atomics, Electromagnetics Systems Group, San Diego, California, is awarded a $10,364,470 modification (P00047) to a previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract (N00019-14-C-0037). This modification procures hardware and installation support services for the System Functional Demonstrator and Shipset Control Lab sites for the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System. Work will be performed in San Diego, California (95%); and Tupelo, Mississippi (5%), and is expected to be completed December 2021. Fiscal 2018 shipbuilding and conversion (Navy) funds in the amount of $10,364,470 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY Coastal Pacific Food Distributors Inc., Stockton, California, has been awarded a maximum $246,750,000 fixed-price with economic-price-adjustment, indefinite-quantity contract for full-line food distribution. This was a competitive acquisition with two responses received. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Locations of performance are California and Washington state, with a Feb. 15, 2025, performance completion date. Using military service is Navy. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2025 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE300-20-D-3259). Sysco Seattle Inc., Kent, Washington, has been awarded a maximum $176,250,000 fixed-price with economic-price-adjustment, indefinite-quantity contract for full-line food distribution. This was a competitive acquisition with two responses received. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Location of performance is Washington state, with a Feb. 15, 2025, performance completion date. Using military services are Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2025 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE300-20-D-3260). Science Applications International Corp., Fairfield, New Jersey, has been awarded a maximum $90,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract for facilities maintenance, repair and operations items. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304(c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is an 18-month bridge contract with no option periods. Location of performance is the Southwest Region Zone 2 of the U.S., with an Aug. 18, 2021, performance completion date. Using military services are Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2021 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE8E3-20-D-0007). SupplyCore Inc.,* Rockford, Illinois, has been awarded a maximum $90,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract for facilities maintenance, repair and operations items. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304(c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is an 18-month bridge contract with no option periods. Location of performance is the Southwest Region Zone 1 of the U.S., with an Aug. 18, 2021, performance completion date. Using military services are Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Type of appropriate is fiscal 2020 through 2021 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE8E3-20-D-0006). ARMY 313 Industries Inc.,* Warren, Michigan (W56HZV-20-D-L001); Mettle Craft Manufacturing LLC,* Sterling Heights, Michigan (W56HZV-20-D-L002); Milton Manufacturing Inc.,* Detroit, Michigan (W56HZV-20-D-L003); and Rose-A-Lee Technologies Inc.,* Sterling Heights, Michigan (W56HZV-20-D-L004), will compete for each order of the $19,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract to provide surge support for build-to-print component requirements through fabrication and manufacturing for the Combat Capabilities Development Command Ground Vehicle System Center. Bids were solicited via the internet with four received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Feb. 15, 2025. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Detroit Arsenal, Michigan, is the contracting activity. Canco LLC,* Canton, Ohio, was awarded a $10,050,000 firm-fixed-price contract to replace an existing fire station. Bids were solicited via the internet with seven received. Work will be performed in Mansfield, Ohio, with an estimated completion date of Dec. 31, 2021. Fiscal 2019 -Air National Guard military construction funds in the amount of $10,050,000 were obligated at the time of the award. The United States Property and Fiscal Office, Columbus, Ohio, is the contracting activity (W50S8R-20-C-0003). U.S. TRANSPORTATION COMMAND Vane Line Bunkering Inc., Baltimore, Maryland, has been awarded contract modification P00040 on contract HTC711-13-C-W015 in the amount of $11,516,430. This modification provides continued transportation of bulk jet fuel and marine diesel fuel by barge for the Defense Logistics Agency-Energy in the Atlantic Region. Work will be performed in ports and points along the inland waterways and East Coast locations in the Atlantic Region. Period of performance is March 1, 2020, to Aug. 31, 2020. Fiscal 2020 defense working capital funds were obligated at award. This modification brings the total cumulative face value of the contract to $178,740,305 from $167,223,875. U.S. Transportation Command, Directorate of Acquisition, Scott Air Force Base, Illinois, is the contracting activity. DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY Two Six Labs LLC,* Arlington, Virginia, has been awarded a $7,970,711 modification (P00008) to previously awarded contract HR0011-18-C-0134 for additional in-scope work under a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency research project. Work will be performed in Arlington, Virginia, with an expected completion date of September 2022. Fiscal 2020 research, development, test and evaluation funding in the amount of $850,108 is being obligated at time of award. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Arlington, Virginia, is the contracting activity. *Small business https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2086591/source/GovDelivery/

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