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January 28, 2021 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Opinion: Are Flat Pentagon Budgets The New Up Or The New Down?

Byron Callan January 26, 2021

The Biden administration probably will not unveil an outyear spending plan for the Defense Department until the late spring of 2021 at the earliest, and more likely it will come out with the fiscal 2023 budget submission in February 2022. The administration should, however, be commenting on some of the bigger changes as different reviews and assessments are completed before that budget plan is released.

Consensus now is that Pentagon spending will be flat at least in the first term of the Biden administration, though analysts are not clear on what this means. Will the Pentagon's budget be unchanged from the level that was appropriated for fiscal 2021? Will it be flat in inflation-adjusted terms, which means it would rise at 2% annually in current dollars? Or will the budget be flat in current dollars, which would entail a roughly 2% annual decline in Pentagon purchasing power, assuming inflation is 2%? Each would have different outcomes for the spending that would flow to contractors.

Defense optimists could argue that flat budgets historically have not lasted too long. There were periods in which budgets were flat over 2-4 years annually in the late 1950s, early 1960s and mid-1990s. Flat periods, however, were succeeded by growth—usually because of a crisis or a new military contingency.

No one has a working crystal ball that will show what is ahead for the 2020s. There are reasons to believe, however, that the 2020s are different. Although interest rates are at historic lows, the ratio of U.S. debt to GDP is at levels seen during World War II. There is pent-up demand for non-defense discretionary spending—notably for infrastructure, and an aging U.S. population will likely demand more health care and other “social” spending. “Endless wars” in the Middle East may temper Americans' willingness to engage in new overseas missions, unless a major provocation occurs that is akin to the 9/11 attacks. The flat budget period could last longer than the post-World War II era suggests.

Is “flat” good for contractors? That depends. Markets started to digest that U.S. defense spending was flattening in 2020. The largest U.S. defense contractors underperformed the S&P 500 in 2020 and are doing so again in the first days of 2021. The initial market verdict is that flat is not good.

The assessment might be true, but it is going to depend on two factors: how the Pentagon reallocates resources in a flat budget environment and how contractors change their strategies and portfolios.

A flat top-line defense budget could be positive if the Pentagon can successfully cut military personnel and operations and maintenance (O&M) spending. Both are tall tasks. Winding down operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East is not going to free up significant troop numbers, and in any event, both are apt to exert gravitational pulls from which the U.S. cannot easily break free. Global security risks are not going to allow the sort of force structure cuts that occurred at the end of the Cold War and the Korean and Vietnam wars. Readiness and training also will remain a priority in this environment.

Spending on military personnel and O&M that keeps pace with inflation may place even more pressure on investment. If those accounts grow at 1-2% annually, in a flat top-line period, that will put even more pressure on investment. Still, while there has been no indication so far, it is conceivable that the Biden administration will propose reductions in force structure and will attack O&M costs with more vigor. It will take 1-2 years at least to realize those savings, but they could be applied to modernize a smaller military.

For a number of years, the Pentagon attempted to retire older “legacy” weapon systems in order to fund new investment, but Congress has stymied efforts to muster out older Navy cruisers, aircraft carrier refueling systems and aircraft such as the A-10. The Defense Department could renew this line of attack, but it may be reminded of the old adage that repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. The Pentagon will have to change its approach here by offering more incentives to states and districts that could be affected by the elimination of squadrons or units, and it has to be more forceful in confronting contractors whose net interests are harmed by such moves.

A final thought is how contractors' strategies might change. In 2020 and so far in 2021, outperformance was evidenced by small-to-midsize contractors that appeared better aligned with Pentagon investment priorities in artificial intelligence, autonomy, supply chain resilience and low-cost weapons. The largest contractors may be able to unlock value in a flat top-line environment if they can spin off segments that are stagnant or declining. Sprawling program portfolios are apt to perform more in line with market growth rates, and that is not a recipe for superior performance.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/opinion-are-flat-pentagon-budgets-new-or-new-down

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  • Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 20, 2019

    November 20, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 20, 2019

    DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY Bell Boeing Joint Project Office, California, Maryland, has been awarded a maximum $379,377,099 firm-fixed-price requirements contract for maintenance, repair and consumable material support for the V-22 platform. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304 (c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is a five-year base contract with one five-year option period. Locations of performance are Maryland, Texas and Pennsylvania, with a Nov. 20, 2024, performance completion date. Using military services are Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2025 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Aviation, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE4AX-20-D-9401). The Boeing Co., St. Louis, Missouri, has been awarded a maximum $232,003,560 firm-fixed-price delivery order (SPRPA1-20-D-000U) against a five-year basic ordering agreement (SPRPA1-14-D-002U) for the AH64 CH47 Global Material Support Program. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304 (c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is a five-year base contract with one four-year option period. Locations of performance are Missouri and Arizona, with a Nov. 18, 2024, performance completion date. Using military service is Army. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2024 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Aviation, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. MOOG Inc., East Aurora, New York, has been awarded a maximum $13,658,400 firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for aviation pneumatic accumulators. This was a limited competitive acquisition with two offers received. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Location of performance is New York, with a Nov. 1, 2024, performance completion date. Using military service is Army. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2020 through 2025 Army working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Aviation, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama (SPRRA1-20-D-0007). NAVY Lockheed Martin Corp., Rotary and Mission Systems, Orlando, Florida, is awarded a $92,205,970 firm-fixed-price modification (P00008) to a previously awarded cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost reimbursable contract (N68335-18-C-0681). This modification exercises an option to procure 34 electronic Consolidated Automated Support System (eCASS) units to include 32 for the Navy and two for the government of Kuwait. Additionally, this modification procures eCASS related equipment such as self-maintenance and test/calibration operational test program sets, calibration equipment suites/kits, rack rail kits, shore installation kits and ship installation kits in support of the Navy and the government of Kuwait. Work will be performed in Orlando, Florida, and is expected to be completed in December 2022. Fiscal 2018, 2019 and 2020 aircraft procurement (Navy); and Foreign Military Sales funds in the amount of $92,205,970 will be obligated at time of award, $641,592 of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division, Lakehurst, New Jersey, is the contracting activity. Raytheon Missile Systems, Tucson, Arizona, is awarded an $84,769,892 fixed-price-incentive (firm target) and firm-fixed-price contract modification to previously-awarded contract N00024-19-C-5418 to exercise options in support of the fiscal 2020 Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) Block 2 low rate initial production (LRIP) requirements. This contract modification will procure the remaining materials in support of the ESSM FY20 LRIP Lot 3 all up rounds and spares requirements. The ESSM program is an international cooperative effort to design, develop, test and procure ESSM missiles. The ESSM provides enhanced ship defense. Work will be performed in Tucson, Arizona (50%); Richmond, Australia (6%); Raufoss, Norway (6%); Andover, Massachusetts (5%); Mississauga, Canada (4%); Ottobrunn, Germany (3%); Hengelo Ov, Netherlands (3%); Grand Rapids, Michigan (3%); San Jose, California (2%); Ottawa, Canada (2%); Aranjuez, Spain (2%); San Diego, California (2%); Koropi Attica, Greece (2%); Hopewell Junction, New York (1%); Ankara, Turkey (1%); Westlake Village, California (1%); Eight Mile Plains Brisbane, Australia (1%); Grenaa, Denmark (1%); Torrance, California (1%); Canton, New York (1%); Minneapolis, Minnesota (1%); Newmarket, Canada; Lystrup, Denmark; Milwaukie, Oregon; and Cincinnati, Ohio, are less than 1% each and make up the remaining 2%. Work is expected to be complete by June 2023. Fiscal 2020 weapons procurement (Navy) funding in the amount of $84,769,892 will be obligated at time of award and will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract modification was not competitively procured in accordance with 10 U.S. Code 2304(c)(4). The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington, District of Columbia, is the contracting activity. Kellogg Brown and Root Services Inc., Houston, Texas, is awarded a $56,255,635 modification under a previously awarded firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract to exercise the second option period for base operating support services at Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti. The work to be performed provides for all management and administration, public safety, galley, ordnance, air operations, fire and emergency services, bachelor quarters, housing, pest control, integrated solid waste, base support vehicles and equipment, custodial, electrical, water, wastewater, port operations, supply, morale-welfare-recreation, facilities investment and environmental services to provide base operating support services. After award of this option, the total cumulative contract value will be $188,808,738. Work will be performed at various installations in the territory of Djibouti, Africa, and other areas within Africa, and work is expected to be completed November 2020. No funds will be obligated at time of award. Fiscal 2020 operation and maintenance, (Navy), contract funds in the amount of $56,255,635 for recurring work will be obligated on individual task orders issued during the option period. The Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Europe Africa Central, Naples, Italy, is the contracting activity (N62470-17-D-4012). Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Manassas, Virginia, is awarded a $54,597,891 cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification to previously awarded contract N00024-17-C-6259 to exercise and fund options for Navy equipment, production support and required long lead materials. Work will be performed in Manassas, Virginia (65%); Clearwater, Florida (32%); Syracuse, New York (2%); and Marion, Florida (1%), and is expected to be complete by September 2021. Fiscal 2020 other procurement (Navy); and 2019 shipbuilding and conversion (Navy) funding in the amount of $46,832,561 will be obligated at the time of award and will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington Navy Yard, Washington, District of Columbia, is the contracting activity. SeaFix Inc., Saipan, Marianas Protectorate, is awarded a not-to-exceed $15,214,417 firm-fixed-price, cost-reimbursement, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract with a four-year ordering period for Navy Watercraft Afloat Maintenance Services. This contract provides for full range of logistics support services to include maintenance and associated material management for Afloat Navy Lighterage in support of the Marine Corps Prepositioning Program and deployed forces world-wide. This contract includes one six-month option period which, if exercised, would bring the cumulative value of this contract to $18,930,294. Work will be performed outside the continental U.S. aboard Military Sealift Command Ships (98%), primarily in Guam, Saipan, Diego Garcia and South Korea; and in Jacksonville, Florida (2%). Work is expected to be completed Jan. 14, 2024. If all options are exercised, work will continue through July 14, 2024. No funds will be obligated at the time of award; funds will be obligated on individual task orders as they are issued. This contract was competitively solicited and procured via the Federal Business Opportunity website as a total HUBZone set-aside, with two offers received. The Marine Corps, Blount Island Command, Jacksonville, Florida, is the contracting activity (M67004-20-D-0002). Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Baltimore, Maryland, is awarded a $13,046,971 modification for the firm-fixed-price portion of a previously awarded contract (M67854-19-C-0043). This modification is for the purchase of gallium nitride full rate production diminishing manufacturing sources and communications equipment group shelter integration in Lot One in support of Program Executive Officer Land Systems, Quantico, Virginia. Work will be performed in Baltimore, Maryland, and is expected to be complete by May 2, 2022. Fiscal 2020 procurement (Marine Corps) funds in the amount of $13,046,971 will be obligated at the time of award and will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The contract modification was not competitively procured. The base contract was prepared in accordance with Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1 and 10 U.S. Code § 2304(c)(1). The Marine Corps Systems Command, Quantico, Virginia, is the contracting activity (M67854-19-C-0043). BAE Systems Jacksonville Ship Repair, Jacksonville, Florida, is awarded an $11,161,336 cost-plus-award-fee modification to previously-awarded contract N00024-16-C-2302 to exercise options for the USS Billings (LCS 15) post-shakedown availability. Post-shakedown availabilities (PSA) are accomplished within a period of approximately 10-16 weeks between the time of ship custody transfer to the Navy and the shipbuilding and conversion (Navy) funding obligation work limiting date. The PSA encompasses all of the manpower, support services, material, non-standard equipment and associated technical data and documentation required to prepare for and accomplish the PSA. The work to be performed will include correction of government-responsible trial card deficiencies, new work identified between custody transfer and the time of PSA and incorporation of approved engineering changes that were not incorporated during the construction period which are not otherwise the building yard's responsibility under the ship construction contract. Work will be performed in Jacksonville, Florida, and is expected to be completed by January 2021. Fiscal 2013 shipbuilding and conversion (Navy) funding in the amount of $1,431,018; fiscal 2020 shipbuilding and conversion (Navy) funding in the amount of $1,431,015; and fiscal 2020 other procurement (Navy) funding in the amount of $202,227 will be obligated at time of award and will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Supervisor of Shipbuilding, Conversion, and Repair, Bath, Maine, is the contracting activity. Melwood Horticultural Training Center Inc., Upper Marlboro, Maryland, is awarded an $8,639,459 indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) modification for the exercise of Option Four under an IDIQ contract for custodial services at U.S. Naval Academy complex. The work to be performed provides for custodial services such as trash removal, cleaning, vacuuming, floor cleaning and scrubbing, re-lamping, specialized cleaning of the John Paul Jones Crypt, and basketball floor installation and removal. After award of this option, the total cumulative contract value will be $41,707,319. Work will be performed in Annapolis, Maryland. This option period is from December 2019 to November 2020. No funds will be obligated at time of award. Fiscal 2020 operation and maintenance, (Navy) contract funds in the amount of $8,639,459 for recurring work will be obligated on individual task orders issued during the option period. The Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Washington, Public Works Department, Annapolis, Maryland, is the contracting activity (N40080-16-D-0303). ARMY SAF Inc.,* Akron, Ohio (W91237-20-D-0001); and A&H - AMBICA JV LLC,* Livonia, Michigan (W91237-20-D-0002), will compete for each order of the $49,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract for an indefinite-delivery contract for design-build and design-bid-build construction projects. Bids were solicited via the internet with 11 received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Nov. 18, 2024. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Huntington, West Virginia, is the contracting activity. SIG Sauer Inc., Newington, New Hampshire, was awarded a $10,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract for procurement of .300 Winchester Magnum Ammunition. Bids were solicited via the internet with five received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Sept. 30, 2024. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois, is the contracting activity (W52P1J-20-D-0003). CSRA,* Huntsville, Alabama, was awarded a $9,178,300 modification (0029 42) to contract W31P4Q-05-A-0028 for non-standard rotary wing aircraft project office systems engineering and technical assistance support services. Work will be performed in Huntsville, Alabama, with an estimated completion date of Nov. 19, 2020. Fiscal 2020 Foreign Military Sales funds in the amount of $9,178,300 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is the contracting activity. AIR FORCE CORRECTION: The Nov. 13, 2019, announcement of a $32,266,994 modification to ManTech International Inc., Fairfax, Virginia, exercising Option Year One to previously awarded contract FA8819-18-C-1001 for security support, included the wrong modification number. The correct modification number is P00018. *Small Business https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2021006/source/GovDelivery/

  • Armée de l'Air : campagne d'essai pour les C-130H modernisés par Collins Aerospace

    July 24, 2019 | International, Aerospace

    Armée de l'Air : campagne d'essai pour les C-130H modernisés par Collins Aerospace

    Le premier des Lockheed Martin C-130H de l'Armée de l'Air doté de la nouvelle avionique Collins Aerospace a débuté sa campagne d'essais en vol et de certification sur la base aérienne de Bordeaux-Mérignac. L'avion est équipé de la solution avionique Collins Aerospace Flight2™ et du double affichage tête haute (HUD), HGS-4500, avec système de vision améliorée multibande, EVS-300, pour améliorer la perception des pilotes de leur environnement. Une caméra infrarouge pour la détection d'objectifs a également été intégrée au HGS. Ensemble, ces solutions permettent d'améliorer les capacités opérationnelles des appareils pour répondre aux besoins spécifiques des missions. “Avec Flight2™, l'Armée de l'Air française dispose d'une avionique de dernière génération et d'une solution optimisée de support et de maintenance pour mener à bien ses missions exigeantes dans le monde entier,” a déclaré Olivier Pedron, directeur général, avionique de Collins Aerospace en France. Après le premier vol et la qualification par la direction générale de l'armement (DGA) des deux premiers appareils rénovés, Collins Aerospace et Sabena Technics fourniront des kits de modification au Service industriel de l'aéronautique (SIAé) pour l'installation en série sur les 12 C-130H restants de la flotte française. Le contrat de modernisation avait été attribué en septembre 2016, par la DGA, à Collins Aerospace pour la maîtrise d'ouvrage, conformément à sa certification FRA-21J, aux côtés de ses partenaires Lockheed Martin et Sabena Technics. Flight2™ permettra aux C-130H français un accès sans restriction à l'espace aérien mondial tel que défini par l'Organisation de l'Aviation Civile Internationale (OACI), leur procurant des capacités tactiques accrues tant sur les thé'tres d'opérations que dans l'espace aérien civil. De plus, il permet une communalité pour le support et la maintenance avec les autres plateformes de l'Armée de l'Air telles qu' E-3, AWACS, et KC-135 ainsi qu'une communalité avec les HUD du C-130J. https://www.air-cosmos.com/article/arme-de-lair-campagne-dessai-pour-les-c-130h-moderniss-par-collins-aerospace-21508

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