By CHYRINE MEZHERon November 24, 2020 at 7:01 AM
BEIRUT: The United Arab Emirates has long sought advanced American armed drones. That day appears to be close.
The US State Department has notified Congress it plans to sell 18 battle-ready MQ-9B drones worth an estimated $2.9 billion to the UAE as part of a bigger deal that includes up to 50 F-35 fighter jets, as well as air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.
The UAE would become the first Middle Eastern customer to acquire lethal drones. Why now? The Israeli-UAE normalization of relations laid the foundation for it all, Lebanese strategic expert Naji Malaeb told me.
“The path of normalization with Israel and the agreements that paved the way for it included deals that were not announced up until today,” the retired brigadier general said, adding that “more arms sales should see the light in the long run.”
According to him, the sale had to be pushed fast given that the new administration in Washington might reconsider the whole matter. “Can we really assume that things remain the same under the Biden administration?” he asked, which explains the “urgency to finalize the deal without missing out on the opportunity to help both the American defense industry and the UAE.”
Another reason is the fact that the Trump administration loosened measures to export drones after reinterpreting a Cold War-era arms agreement (the MTCR) between 34 nations to allow U.S. defense contractors to sell more drones to allies.
“Trump's CAT policy with its emphasis on drone exports opened the door for such a sale a while ago,” senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former Pentagon official in charge of security cooperation in the Middle East Bilal Saab told Breaking D in an interview.
Abu Dhabi's increased interest in drones is due to its growing military role in the Gulf, Yemen and the Horn of Africa. “With the great role of Turkish Bayraktar drones emerging in both the Libyan and Nagorno Karabakh wars, and the game of regional axes, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates face off on more than one front,” Khattar Abou Diab, professor of geopolitical sciences at the Paris Centre for Geopolitics, told me.
Simply, “Washington fears more Turkish independency or not controlling the Turkish situation,” he said, which is why it “provided one of its vital allies in the region with advanced weapons.”
Another strategic perspective is the growing naval threat from Iran, I believe. Although the drone variant is yet to be confirmed, the UAE may get hold of the MQ-9B Sea Guardian which can be equipped with maritime surveillance radars, capabilities would be useful to the Gulf state.
Military researcher and defense analyst at the Arab Forum for Policy Analysis in Cairo, Mohammad Al-Kenany believes the UAE will be using the Reapers for both land and maritime missions.
“The systems won't be specialized to perform certain missions,” he said. Instead, the Gulf country is planning to operate them in missions related to overland ISR and to monitor the maritime activities across the Gulf.
“It remains more important to the UAE however to keep a close eye on its waters,” he emphasized, given the ongoing Iranian threats in that area. The details of the deal clearly indicate that the UAE will also be equipped with ASW mission kits, receivers and acoustic processors, thermometric sonobuoys, active and passive sonobuoys and ASW acoustic operator workstations,” Al-Kenany explained, adding that “Iran's small fleet of submarines could well be a driver behind the UAE pursuing ASW capability with its drones.”
What The Deal Represents
The deal is a win-win situation for the US and the UAE as it clearly represents a huge leap for General Atomics' MQ-9 production line for one and the UAE air force for another. With Chinese and Turkish competitors proving highly successful at selling armed drones on the export market, and indigenous Arab industries quickly becoming more capable in producing their own unmanned vehicles, the agreement puts America on the map again.
Saab, however, says he is less concerned about the first part: “We're less worried about competition in that space than we are in fixed-wing aircraft and larger land and air-based platforms. Our competitive advantage in UAS equipment is strong.”
The UAE operates dozens of Chinese-made Wing Loong armed UAVs that were used against Houthi rebel leaders in Yemen and against ISIL-affiliated fighters in the Sinai. It produces its own drones, recently unveiling the new Garmousha drone, a light military unmanned aircraft designed to carry payloads of approximately 100kg with an endurance of six hours and 150km.
All that shouldn't be a problem however because, “as cheesy or self-evident as it sounds, U.S technology offers greater operational flexibility,” said Saab.
Malaeb agrees. “The UAE has long awaited such technologies even with the Chinese armed drones making a significant effect on the battlefields across the MENA region,” he said. “But let's face it, the MQ-9 Reaper is combat-proven, with an excellent operational record, albeit over non-contested skies.”
Still, only time will tell the specific details of the deal which could reveal the kind of technology the U.S agreed to grant the UAE, without undermining Israeli military superiority or its military qualitative edge in the region.
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/mq-9-reapers-to-the-uae-why-now/
