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November 25, 2020 | International, Aerospace

MQ-9 Reapers to the UAE: Why Now?

By on November 24, 2020 at 7:01 AM

BEIRUT: The United Arab Emirates has long sought advanced American armed drones. That day appears to be close.

The US State Department has notified Congress it plans to sell 18 battle-ready MQ-9B drones worth an estimated $2.9 billion to the UAE as part of a bigger deal that includes up to 50 F-35 fighter jets, as well as air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions.

The UAE would become the first Middle Eastern customer to acquire lethal drones. Why now? The Israeli-UAE normalization of relations laid the foundation for it all, Lebanese strategic expert Naji Malaeb told me.

“The path of normalization with Israel and the agreements that paved the way for it included deals that were not announced up until today,” the retired brigadier general said, adding that “more arms sales should see the light in the long run.”

According to him, the sale had to be pushed fast given that the new administration in Washington might reconsider the whole matter. “Can we really assume that things remain the same under the Biden administration?” he asked, which explains the “urgency to finalize the deal without missing out on the opportunity to help both the American defense industry and the UAE.”

Another reason is the fact that the Trump administration loosened measures to export drones after reinterpreting a Cold War-era arms agreement (the MTCR) between 34 nations to allow U.S. defense contractors to sell more drones to allies.

“Trump's CAT policy with its emphasis on drone exports opened the door for such a sale a while ago,” senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and former Pentagon official in charge of security cooperation in the Middle East Bilal Saab told Breaking D in an interview.

Abu Dhabi's increased interest in drones is due to its growing military role in the Gulf, Yemen and the Horn of Africa. “With the great role of Turkish Bayraktar drones emerging in both the Libyan and Nagorno Karabakh wars, and the game of regional axes, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates face off on more than one front,” Khattar Abou Diab, professor of geopolitical sciences at the Paris Centre for Geopolitics, told me.

Simply, “Washington fears more Turkish independency or not controlling the Turkish situation,” he said, which is why it “provided one of its vital allies in the region with advanced weapons.”

Another strategic perspective is the growing naval threat from Iran, I believe. Although the drone variant is yet to be confirmed, the UAE may get hold of the MQ-9B Sea Guardian which can be equipped with maritime surveillance radars, capabilities would be useful to the Gulf state.

Military researcher and defense analyst at the Arab Forum for Policy Analysis in Cairo, Mohammad Al-Kenany believes the UAE will be using the Reapers for both land and maritime missions.

“The systems won't be specialized to perform certain missions,” he said. Instead, the Gulf country is planning to operate them in missions related to overland ISR and to monitor the maritime activities across the Gulf.

“It remains more important to the UAE however to keep a close eye on its waters,” he emphasized, given the ongoing Iranian threats in that area. The details of the deal clearly indicate that the UAE will also be equipped with ASW mission kits, receivers and acoustic processors, thermometric sonobuoys, active and passive sonobuoys and ASW acoustic operator workstations,” Al-Kenany explained, adding that “Iran's small fleet of submarines could well be a driver behind the UAE pursuing ASW capability with its drones.”

What The Deal Represents

The deal is a win-win situation for the US and the UAE as it clearly represents a huge leap for General Atomics' MQ-9 production line for one and the UAE air force for another. With Chinese and Turkish competitors proving highly successful at selling armed drones on the export market, and indigenous Arab industries quickly becoming more capable in producing their own unmanned vehicles, the agreement puts America on the map again.

Saab, however, says he is less concerned about the first part: “We're less worried about competition in that space than we are in fixed-wing aircraft and larger land and air-based platforms. Our competitive advantage in UAS equipment is strong.”

The UAE operates dozens of Chinese-made Wing Loong armed UAVs that were used against Houthi rebel leaders in Yemen and against ISIL-affiliated fighters in the Sinai. It produces its own drones, recently unveiling the new Garmousha drone, a light military unmanned aircraft designed to carry payloads of approximately 100kg with an endurance of six hours and 150km.

All that shouldn't be a problem however because, “as cheesy or self-evident as it sounds, U.S technology offers greater operational flexibility,” said Saab.

Malaeb agrees. “The UAE has long awaited such technologies even with the Chinese armed drones making a significant effect on the battlefields across the MENA region,” he said. “But let's face it, the MQ-9 Reaper is combat-proven, with an excellent operational record, albeit over non-contested skies.”

Still, only time will tell the specific details of the deal which could reveal the kind of technology the U.S agreed to grant the UAE, without undermining Israeli military superiority or its military qualitative edge in the region.

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/mq-9-reapers-to-the-uae-why-now/

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  • Pentagon Seeks a List of Ethical Principles for Using AI in War

    January 7, 2019 | International, Aerospace, C4ISR

    Pentagon Seeks a List of Ethical Principles for Using AI in War

    BY PATRICK TUCKER An advisory board is drafting guidelines that may help shape worldwide norms for military artificial intelligence — and woo Silicon Valley to defense work. U.S. defense officials have asked the Defense Innovation Board for a set of ethical principles in the use of artificial intelligence in warfare. The principles are intended to guide a military whose interest in AI is accelerating — witness the new Joint Artificial Intelligence Center — and to reassure potential partners in Silicon Valley about how their AI products will be used. Today, the primary document laying out what the military can and can't do with AI is a 2012 doctrine that says a human being must have veto power over any action an autonomous system might take in combat. It's brief, just four pages, and doesn't touch on any of the uses of AI for decision support, predictive analytics, etc. where players like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others are making fast strides in commercial environments. “AI scientists have expressed concern about how DoD intends to use artificial intelligence. While the DoD has a policy on the role of autonomy in weapons, it currently lacks a broader policy on how it will use artificial intelligence across the broad range of military missions,” said Paul Scharre, the author of Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War. Josh Marcuse, executive director of the Defense Innovation Board, said crafting these principles will help the department “safely and responsibly” employ new technologies. “I think it's important when dealing with a field that's emergent to think through all the ramifications,” he said. The Board, a group of Silicon Valley corporate and thought leaders chaired by former Google and Alphabet chairman Eric Schmidt, will make the list public at its June meeting. Defense Department leaders will take them under consideration. Marcuse believes that the Pentagon can be a leader not just in employing AI but in establishing guidelines for safe use — just as the military pioneered safety standards for aviation. “The Department of Defense should lead in this area as we have with other technologies in the past. I want to make sure the department is not just leading in developing AI for military purposes but also in developing ethics to use AI in military purposes,” he says. The effort, in part, is a response to what happened with the military's Project Maven, the Pentagon's flagship AI project with Google as its partner. The effort applied artificial intelligence to the vast store of video and and image footage that the Defense Department gathers to guide airstrikes. Defense officials emphasized repeatedly that the AI was intended only to cut down the workload of human analysts. But they also acknowledged that the ultimate goal was to help the military do what it does better, which sometimes means finding and killing humans. An employee revolt ensued at Google. Employees resigned en masse and the company said that they wouldn't renew the contract. Scharre, who leads the Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said, “One of the challenges for things like Project Maven, which uses AItechnology to process drone video feeds, is that some scientists expressed concern about where the technology may be heading. A public set of AI principles will help clarify DoD's intentions regarding artificial intelligence.” Full artcile: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/01/pentagon-seeks-list-ethical-principles-using-ai-war/153940/

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