23 octobre 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

Battle Force 2045 could work — if defense leaders show some discipline

By: and

U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is sprinting. With less than four months left in the administration's term, he unveiled a new vision for the Navy that would grow the fleet to more than 500 manned and unmanned vessels from today's 296 ships. Although some dismiss Esper's Battle Force 2045 concept as a political ploy shortly before an election, it could lead to a more effective and affordable future fleet — as long as Navy and Department of Defense leaders can avoid loading it down with expensive options.

The Navy clearly needs to change its force design and operational approach. Even though naval forces are increasingly important to deter and defeat Chinese aggression, the Navy's previous plan to build a force of 355 ships lacked resilience and firepower, fell short on logistics, and was projected to cost 50 percent more than the current fleet. The Navy tried to adjust that plan with an integrated naval force structure assessment, but Esper rejected it, as it failed to implement new concepts for distributed multidomain operations and would be too expensive to realistically field.

Instead, over the course of nine months, he and Deputy Secretary of Defense David Norquist led a study taking a fresh look at the Navy's force structure. The Hudson Institute contributed to the project by developing one of three fleet designs that informed the new plan.

Hudson's proposed fleet is affordable to acquire and operate. Even though it consists of 581 vessels, more than 200 are unmanned or have small crews. The Hudson study's conservative estimates suggest it can be acquired for the ship construction funding in the Navy's President's Budget for fiscal 2021, adjusted for inflation, and would only cost moderately more than the current one to operate.

The Hudson proposal becomes more affordable than the Navy's plan by gradually rebalancing the fleet to incorporate more smaller, less-expensive ships and fewer large multimission combatants. The proposed fleet would also constrain the size and cost of some large new ships, such as the future large surface combatant and next-generation attack submarine.

Employing new operational concepts, the proposed fleet would outperform the current Navy in important metrics for future operations. First, the proposed fleet's groups of manned and unmanned vessels would generate more numerous and diverse effects chains compared to today's Navy, improving the force's adaptability and imposing greater complexity on enemy decision-making.

Second, the fleet would deliver more offensive munitions from vessels and aircraft over a protracted period, and defend itself more effectively using distribution, shorter-range interceptors and electric weapons.

Lastly, it enhances the fleet's amphibious, logistics and strategic sealift capacity. Overall, this results in a Navy that can help the joint force prevail across a range of potential scenarios, including the most challenging ones such as an attempted Chinese attack on Taiwan.

The Hudson fleet is also achievable. Its shipbuilding plan relies on mature technologies or allows sufficient time to complete needed engineering and operational concept development before moving ships into serial production. The plan sustains the industrial base through stable ship-construction rates that avoid gaps in production and smoothly transition between ship classes.

Even with this measured approach, however, the fleet can rapidly evolve, reaching more than 355 manned and unmanned vessels by 2030, and 581 by 2045.

Although Battle Force 2045 focuses on ships, the Navy needs to spend more on improving repair yard infrastructure, growing munitions stocks, and providing command-and-control capabilities to the force. As the Hudson study shows, ship construction savings could help fund these and other enablers, but only if the Navy and the DoD have the discipline to avoid expensive new investments, such as building a third attack submarine every year, installing boost-glide hypersonic missiles on old destroyers or pursuing a significantly larger combatant to follow the Arleigh Burke class.

Even if the procurement cost of these programs was funded through budget shifts within the DoD, each will incur a sustainment bill that is not factored into Navy plans and could accelerate the descent toward a hollow force.

The Navy is now developing a new shipbuilding plan as part of its FY22 budget submission. Congress should carefully assess that plan and, in collaboration with the DoD, refine the budget. Esper may depart, but the results of this study can serve as a starting point for an operationally effective and fiscally sustainable fleet for the next administration.

Timothy A. Walton is a fellow at the Hudson Institute's Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, where Bryan Clark is a senior fellow. Along with Seth Cropsey, they recently completed a study of future naval force structure.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/10/22/battle-force-2045-could-work-if-defense-leaders-show-some-discipline/

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  • FCC unanimously approves spectrum plan Pentagon rejected

    20 avril 2020 | International, C4ISR

    FCC unanimously approves spectrum plan Pentagon rejected

    Mike Gruss and Aaron Mehta The Federal Communications Commission announced April 20 that it has unanimously approved a long-standing application from Ligado Networks to operate in the L-band spectrum, overriding concerns from the Department of Defense and other government agencies which were worried the company's plan will cause damage to the Global Positioning System The approval had been expected since Friday, when sources told C4ISRNET that the commission's three Republican members all voted in favor of the measure; a simply 3-2 majority vote is required for passage. The vote appears to bring to a close the latest chapter in an almost decade-long fight between the Pentagon and Ligado, previously known as LightSquared. C4ISRNET first broke the news that the FCC would move forward with Ligado's request on April 10. “I thank my colleagues for coming together on a bipartisan basis to support Ligado's application,” said FCC chairman Ajit Pai. “This vote is another step forward for American leadership in 5G and advanced wireless services.” The order included what the FCC described as “stringent conditions” to ensure that the GPS satellite signal would not experience harmful interference. Sources told C4ISRNET that the push to consider the effort came from the White House, led by Larry Kudlow's White House National Economic Council. Kudlow has expressed interest in the economic benefits of expanding the nation's 5G capabilities. In addition, Attorney General Bill Barr has been a vocal supporter of Ligado's bid, which he views as a way to grow America's 5G capabilities to challenge China. “Freeing up L-band spectrum for use in tandem with the C-band, as the Chairman proposes, should greatly reduce the cost and time it will take to deploy 5G throughout the country and would be a major step toward preserving our economic future,” Barr said in a Thursday statement. “I hope the full Commission moves forward quickly.” In a statement late in the evening of April 17, a Pentagon spokesman reiterated the department's complaints. “Americans rely on our Global Positioning System (GPS) each day for many things: to locate citizens in need of emergency assistance through our E-911 system, to secure our financial system, to order and receive shipments, to travel by car for work and leisure, to facilitate commercial trucking and construction work, and even to make a simple cellphone call," the statement read. “Our Departments rely on GPS each day for all those reasons as well to coordinate tactical national security operations, launch spacecraft, track threats, and facilitate travel by air and sea. The proposed Ligado decision by the Federal Communications Commission will put all these uses of GPS at risk. That's why our Departments - and almost a dozen other federal agencies - are strongly opposed to the Ligado proposal and have asked for its denial.” Wide opposition L-band is described as the range of frequencies between 1 to 2 GHz. GPS, and other international navigation systems, rely on L-band because it can easily penetrate clouds, fog, rain and vegetation. Ligado owns a license to operate the spectrum near GPS to build what the firm describes as a 5G network that would boost connectivity for the industrial “internet of things” market. The company uses the SkyTerra-1 satellite, which launched in 2010 and is in geostationary orbit, and it has planned to deploy thousands of terminals to provide connectivity in the continental United States. Over the years, Ligado officials have argued their system would use less spectrum, have lower power levels and reduce out-of-channel emissions. In the face of complaints from major commercial GPS companies such as Garmin and John Deere, Ligado has also offered to reduce the amount of spectrum it had initially planned. The company has also said it will work with government agencies to repair and replace equipment if necessary. Those arguments have been dismissed by the Defense Department, which has focused on potential interference to the GPS network that could come from Ligado's plans. As recently as March 24, defense leaders were sending letters to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), letters that were not made public, despite a request from the DoD, until they were reported on by C4ISRNET. While the Pentagon has been the most vocal in its opposition to Ligado's plan, it was hardly alone. A letter sent from the Air Force on Feb. 20 opposing Ligado's plan was co-signed by the departments of Commerce, Interior, Justice, Homeland Security, Energy and Transportation, as well as NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Science Foundation. The Aerospace Industries Association trade group also issued a statement April 16, saying the FCC's decision to move forward with Ligado's plan “disregards the serious concerns raised by various government agencies about the harmful impacts to GPS. We urge the FCC to reject the Chairman's proposal and adequately protect the GPS network that underpins our nation's military operations and the safety of our airspace.” In the last week, bipartisan opposition to the application grew in Congress. Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jack Reed, D-Rhode Island, the committee's ranking member, Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash., the House Armed Services Committee chair, and Rep. Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, the ranking member of the HASC, all issued statements against the proposal as did Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Oregon, the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure committee, and Rep. John Garamendi, D-Califorinia, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee subcommittee on readiness. After the FCC announced plans to hold a vote on Ligado, Thornberry issued a second statement, indicating the potential for Congress to attempt to block the move. “We must advance 5G development, but this is not the way to do it. The FCC cannot be allowed to overrule the unanimous opinion of America's national security leaders,” said Thornberry, who is retiring after this year. “If they do, Congress should immediately revisit and revise their authority.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/breaking-news/2020/04/17/fcc-has-votes-to-approve-spectrum-plan-pentagon-rejected

  • An unpredictable autumn: Changes across Europe could spell delays for industry deals

    4 septembre 2019 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

    An unpredictable autumn: Changes across Europe could spell delays for industry deals

    By: Tom Kington ROME — Just as Europe begins serious discussions about joint defense programs, Italy is scrambling to forge a new government, putting decision-making in Rome on hold amid Britain's exit from the European Union and a change of guard at the organization. Following the collapse of the Italian government last month, Rome is expected to have a new coalition majority in place this week, but the hiccup may further delay decisions about Italy's role in Britain's Tempest fighter program, European partnerships and purchasing of F-35 aircraft. The uncertainty in southern Italy matches the threat of chaos further north if British Prime Minister Boris Johnson carries out threats to leave the EU on Oct. 31 without a trade deal, just as the European Commission awaits a new crop of leaders following the EU election in May. “Defense programs are always prone to delays and cost overruns, but when they are joint programs, that risk increases — and now is a case in point,” said Aude Fleurant, the director of arms and military expenditure at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a Swedish think tank. Origins and options Italy's government upheaval began in early August when one of the members of Italy's populist coalition government, the League party, walked away from the administration after too many policy rows with its partner, the Five Star party — ending the government's parliamentary majority. League party leader Matteo Salvini, whose anti-migrant policies have spurred his popularity after 14 months of government, hoped he could take sole command of the government through new elections. But his plan suffered a setback when Five Star entered talks with its sworn rival, the center-left Democratic Party, to build a new majority and carry on governing without the League. As a sign of open hostilities between the former coalition partners, Italian Defence Minister Elisabetta Trenta — who is backed by Five Star — sent Navy ships to escort vessels carrying rescued migrants in the Mediterranean Sea, much to the anger of League leader Salvini. With the likelihood that ministers for the new Five Star-Democratic Party coalition will be sworn in this week, it's unclear if Trenta will keep her post. Nevertheless, a new government will likely add further delay to Italy's decision on whether to join the U.K. Tempest program. That potential time frame adds to the months during which Trenta failed to decide on the program following its launch by the U.K. in 2018, despite pressure from Italian defense company Leonardo and behind-the-scenes talks between Italian and British military officials. In the meantime, Sweden has signed up, raising fears Italy will miss out on technological work. Trenta's hesitancy may have stemmed from the fact that the party that put her in office, Five Star, has mixed feelings about Italy's ongoing purchase of F-35 jets. During her time in office, the government prevaricated over fulfilling its planned order of 90 aircraft. Someone in Rome is needed to arbitrate in the row between the Navy and Air Force over who should manage the basing of the F-35B, which both forces are ordering. Analysts warned that Italy could miss its chance to snatch F-35 contracts that Turkey is losing as it's forced out of the program. One analyst said tension could escalate over the F-35 if and when a Five Star-Democratic Party coalition emerges. “Let's see who the minister is — that will make a difference,” said Alessandro Marrone, a senior fellow at the IAI think tank in Rome. A second analyst said that by divorcing from the right-wing League and teaming with the center-left Democrats, Five Star's skepticism toward the F-35 could become more pronounced. “I could imagine Five Star agreeing to pro-EU policies favored by the Democrats in return for blocking the F-35 program, or even agreeing to enter the Tempest program in return for blocking the F-35,” said the analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. A source with knowledge of the inner workings of the Italian government said the Democrats might also sacrifice the F-35 to win an agreement to build a rail line in northern Italy that Five Star opposed. Gabriele Iacovino, an analyst at the International Study Center in Rome, said: “Defense is always the last issue to be considered when a new government is formed, and the defense minister is always the last to be appointed.” Five Star did make one reference to defense in an Aug. 30 list of 20 policies it wants to pursue in a new coalition with the Democrats. “Put an end to the sale of armaments to war-waging countries, and incentive the process of converting industry,” the Five Star party stated, suggesting that parts of the Italian defense industry would be turned over to the production of civilian technology. But in a successive draft list of policies issued Sept. 3, the policy was missing, apparently dropped. Looking west At the other end of Europe, Brexit is creating uncertainty of a different kind for the continent, said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for military aerospace at the IISS think thank in London. “There are two kinds of challenge for the British defense community when it comes to Brexit: one is relationship management, the other about bureaucratic,” he said. “Relationship management is in part how ugly the U.K.'s departure is, and for how long the atmosphere is soured between London and its erstwhile partners in Brussels,” he added. “The bureaucratic issues include problems regarding the movement of goods and personnel within defense companies operating in or across Europe, and the ability to access, or not, European research and development funding.” That spells trouble for U.K. firms, but also for Italy's Leonardo, which has 7,000 staff in the U.K. after buying up large parts of the defense electronics industry there. If anything, Leonardo's challenge is twofold: It must keep channels open between its U.K. facilities and European markets, but also with its sister operations in Italy. “In the case of a no-deal [Brexit], how will Leonardo transfer parts and staff from its U.K. to its Italian operators?” said the source knowledgeable of the Italian government's inner workings. Speaking to Defense News in March, Leonardo CEO Alessandro Profumo said it would be crucial to know where the intellectual property for a product must be registered so it can secure development funding from the EU. “There is also an upside since having a base in the U.K. could help Leonardo when it comes to deals with the U.S. and help counterbalance the hegemony of France and Germany in Europe,” said Iacovino, the analyst in Rome. Furthermore, if political crises and Brexit are bumps in the road for Italy and the U.K., defense cooperation between France and Germany is certainly not going smoothly, said Aude Fleurant at SIPRI. “The French-German plans for a sixth-generation fighter, FCAS, are being held up by significant differences over exports to the Middle East,” she said. “France is very unhappy over Germany's opposition, and Germany is refusing to budge.” https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/dsei/2019/09/08/an-unpredictable-autumn-changes-across-europe-could-spell-delays-for-industry-deals

  • What’s standing in the way of an Arab NATO?

    21 novembre 2018 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR

    What’s standing in the way of an Arab NATO?

    By: Agnes Helou BEIRUT — The so-called Arab NATO, a U.S.-led initiative, has the potential to address threats to the Gulf and the Middle East. So what is delaying the creation of such an alliance? An Arab NATO would consist of six Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar) plus Egypt and Jordan. “It is an American idea that has been approved by the Arab Gulf countries, but it didn't take shape yet. I expect such a NATO to be successful, but we are still at the beginning,” explained Maj. Gen. Hamad bin Abdallah al-Khalifah, the commander of the Royal Bahraini Air Force. Last month, the Bahraini minister of foreign affairs said at the IISS Manama Dialogue 2018 that the idea of an Arab NATO would become reality by 2019. One sign of progress: Gulf countries already share military capabilities and in joint training and operations, such as the Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen. “We have been sharing information between coalition fighters all along the operations, and we have been training alongside with the Gulf countries through joint exercises, and this enhances our capabilities,” al-Khalifah said. On the other hand, there are clear challenges ahead for such an Arab NATO. These include issues of interoperability; the eight nations operated different types of military platforms. For instance, Egypt operates the Russian Mig-25M and the American F-16, while Saudi Arabia operates the American F-15SA and the European Eurofighter Typhoon and the UAE operates the F-16 and the French Mirage. Replying to a question about data sharing between various platforms, Rick Groesch, Lockheed Martin vice president for the Middle East, said: “When a country buys U.S. equipment, there are certain things signed up in their agreement. In other words, a country can't put a non- U.S. weapon on a U.S. weapon system without approval from the government.” But data sharing is not the only obstacle for an Arab Nato. The relationship between Qatar and other Gulf countries following a blockade of the former remains unresolved. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain cut relations with Qatar in June 2017 in a form of land, maritime and air blockade. Another shared concern among the eight countries is Iran and its proxy militias. Commander of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, mentioned Iran specifically as a threat to stability in the Gulf region, during the 2nd Manama Airpower Symposium on Nov. 13. “Iran continues to cause risks to other nations and act as a destabilizing agent across this region. They aim to disrupt the balance of power and place at risk the livelihood of citizens,” Guastella said. “When the Iranian military exercises are aimed at the blocking at the Strait of Hormuz, the potential of miscalculation of military intent has strategic consequences. Their actions are directly aimed to threaten all of our economies." Observing similar alliances may prove helpful in standing up an Arab NATO, he added. “There is value in looking at what NATO has been able to do and the successes of an alliance that has guaranteed essentially stability for the region there for decades," he said. "Could some of those lessons apply here? Could some similar alliance of like-minded nations in the Gulf come together in a way that offers the same stability it is offered? Could some of this be applied here? I think the answer is yes, and I think that the step to reach it should be considered by all nations involved.” https://www.defensenews.com/global/mideast-africa/2018/11/20/whats-standing-in-the-way-of-an-arab-nato

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