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April 14, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

The coronavirus threatens NATO. Let’s move to protect the alliance.

By: Sophia Becker , Christian Mölling , and Torben Schütz

The global fight against COVID-19 has devastating economic consequences which might soon be felt in the defense sector. First estimates by OECD and national institutions conclude that the initial economic impact of the measures to fight the virus will by far exceed that of the 2008 financial crisis. The severe socio-economic consequences may tempt European governments to prioritize immediate economic relief over long-term strategic security and defense considerations. The good news is: there is no automatism – it remains fundamentally a political decision.

If European governments do decide to slash defense spending as a result of the current crisis, it would be the second major hit within a decade. Defense budgets have only just begun to recover towards pre-2008 crisis levels, though capabilities have not. Nationally, as well as on an EU and NATO level, significant gaps still exist. European armies have lost roughly one-third of their capabilities over the last two decades. At the same time, the threat environment has intensified with an openly hostile Russia and a rising China.

With European defense budgets under pressure, the United States might see any effort to balance burden-sharing among allies fall apart. A militarily weak Europe would be no help against competitors either. The US should work with allies now to maintain NATO's capabilities.

Improve coordination to avoid past mistakes

Europe's cardinal mistake from the last crisis was uncoordinated national defense cuts instead of harmonized European decisions. In light of the looming budget crisis, governments could be tempted to react the same way. This would be the second round of cuts within a decade, leaving not many capabilities to pool within NATO. If domestic priorities trump considerations about procurement of equipment for the maintenance and generation of military capabilities the system-wide repercussions would be severe. NATO defense, as well as the tightly knit industrial network in Europe, will suffer. Capabilities that can only be generated or sustained multinationally – like effective air defense, strategic air transport or naval strike groups - could become even more fragile; some critical ones may even disappear.

If Europeans cut back on capabilities like anti-submarine warfare, armored vehicles of all sorts and mine-warfare equipment again, they could endanger the military capacity of nearly all allies. Ten years ago, such capabilities for large-scale and conventional warfare seemed rather superfluous, but today NATO needs them more than ever. This outcome should be avoided at all costs, because rebuilding those critical forces would be a considerable resource investment and could take years. Europe would become an even less effective military actor and partner to the US, resulting in more discord about burden-sharing.

Uncoordinated cuts would also affect the defense industry, as development and procurement programs would be delayed or cancelled altogether – hitting both European and American companies. Moreover, their ability to increase efficiency through transnational mergers and acquisitions and economies of scale is limited due to continued national sentiments in Europe. Companies might decide to either aggressively internationalize, including massive increase of defense exports, or leave the market as national armed forces as otherwise reliable clients drop out. Technological innovation would suffer from a shrinking defense industrial ecosystem and duplicated national research and development efforts, risking the foundation of security for the next generation of defense solutions.

To safeguard NATO's strategic autonomy, lean on lead nations

In order to prevent the loss of critical capabilities and infrastructure within NATO, the US should immediately start working with its European partners to preemptively plan for increasingly tight budgets. NATO should take stock of existing capabilities and offer alternatives for consolidation. Based on a coordinated effort to redefine NATO's level of ambition and priorities, it should offer plans for maintaining the military capacity to act while retiring unnecessary and outdated resources. Such a coordinated effort should include close cooperation with the European Union.

Building on the NATO Framework Nations Concept, the United States should work with a network of larger member states, better equipped to weather the economic shock of the current crisis, to act as lead nations. These countries could safeguard critical defense capabilities and provide a foundation of essential forces, enabling smaller partners to attach their specialized capabilities. Such an arrangement allows for a comparatively good balance of financial strain and retention of military capacity. Additionally, NATO should look beyond the conventional military domain and build on lessons learned from hybrid warfare and foreign influence operations against Europe.

The way ahead is clear: As ambitions for European strategic autonomy become wishful thinking in light of the current crisis, allies should focus on retaining NATO's strategic autonomy as a whole. For the foreseeable future, both sides of the Atlantic have to live by one motto: NATO first!

The authors are analysts at the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/04/09/the-coronavirus-threatens-nato-lets-move-to-protect-the-alliance/

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  • Old Weapons Under Fire As COVID Debt Rises

    May 6, 2020 | International, Land

    Old Weapons Under Fire As COVID Debt Rises

    With defense budgets expected to be coming in flat under even best-case scenarios, the time for tough decisions might be coming. By PAUL MCLEARY WASHINGTON: The Pentagon may slash older weapons programs to buy new ones in coming years if the federal government's COVID-19 response takes a big bite out of budgets, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said today. Before the global pandemic slammed American society and ground the economy to a halt, Pentagon leaders were already looking at flat defense budgets and were casting about for fat to trim. But the trillions Congress and the Trump administration has pumped into the economy, which falls on top of an already exploding budget deficit, could make predictions of flat budgets look optimistic. Esper told reporters at the Pentagon he would target older programs: “We need to move away from the legacy, and we need to invest those dollars in the future. And we have a lot of legacy programs out there right now — I could pick dozens out from all branches of the services” that could be cut or curtailed. As Army Secretary in 2018, Esper's “Night Courts” saved the service some $33 billion through scrapping oler programs with an eye to pumping cash into new weapons programs. The Navy is undergoing a review that aims to shave $40 billion in the coming years, and the Marine Corps is aggressively getting rid of troops, tanks, helicopters, and — possibly — trimming the F-35 to make room for modernization investments. In particular, the massive modernization of the nuclear delivery systems will not be touched. Esper said “we're not going to risk the strategic deterrent we need to modernize,” if budgets trend downward, but acknowledged that cutting old weapons systems before their replacements were ready “would mean probably accepting some near term risk, but I think [modernizing is] important given the trajectory that China is on, and we know where Russia may be going in the coming year.” Earlier this week, Esper said he was concerned that exploding budget deficits would put an end to the dream of 3% to 5% yearly defense budget growth, which he had targeted for Pentagon modernization. “There is a concern there that that may lead to smaller defense budgets in the future at the critical time we need to continue making this adjustment, where we look at China, then Russia, as our long-term strategic competitors,” he said at the Brookings Institute. Some lawmakers are bracing for the coming cuts. “I am extremely concerned about that,” House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Mike Gallagher told me recently. “I think it is going to require defense hawks, like myself, to make not only more energetic arguments, but new and creative geopolitical arguments,” to advocate for spending on modernization programs. “If you assume downward pressure on the defense budget, it means that DoD will need to get the most out of every dollar spent.” Those arguments will be critically important for the services as they pitch their latest modernization efforts. “I think the budget comes down sooner rather than later,” Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said during a recent webinar Adding fuel to that view was Todd Harrison, DoD budget expert at the Center for Strategic and International Security, who added, “what has historically happened is, when Congress's fiscal conservatives come out and get serious about reducing the debt, reducing spending on defense is almost always part of what they come up with for a solution,” he said. “So, we could be looking at a deficit-driven defense drawdown coming.” https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/old-weapons-under-fire-as-covid-debt-rises/

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  • Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - July 1, 2019

    July 2, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security, Other Defence

    Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - July 1, 2019

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