Back to news

March 11, 2022 | International, Aerospace

USAF Expected To Ask For Fewer Aircraft Retirements In 2023 Budget

On the same subject

  • Esper backs a bigger Navy fleet, but moves to cut shipbuilding by 20 percent

    February 11, 2020 | International, Naval

    Esper backs a bigger Navy fleet, but moves to cut shipbuilding by 20 percent

    By: David B. Larter WASHINGTON — U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is calling for a 355-ship fleet by 2030, but for fiscal 2021, shipbuilding took a big hit in the Defense Department's budget request. The Navy's FY21 budget request asked for $19.9 billion for shipbuilding; that's $4.1 billion less than enacted levels for 2020. The ask also seeks in total four fewer ships than the service requested in its 2020 budget. The hefty slice out of shipbuilding comes in the first year the Navy requested full funding for the first Columbia-class submarine, which Navy leaders have warned for years would take up an enormous portion of the shipbuilding account. The Department of the Navy's total budget request (including both base funding and overseas contingency operations funding) is $207.1 billion, approximately split $161 billion for the Navy and $46 billion for the Marine Corps. News of the cuts come a day after Defense News held an exclusive interview with Esper during which he backed a larger, 355-ship fleet, but said the Navy must refocus around smaller, lighter ships to fit within budget constraints. In total, the Navy requested two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, one Columbia-class submarine, one Virginia-class submarine, one FFG(X) future frigate, one LPD-17 amphibious transport dock, and two towing and salvage ships. The budget reflected a cut to the Virginia-class sub and FFG(X) programs, each of which were supposed to be two ships in 2021, according to last year's 30-year shipbuilding plan. Both cuts were forecast in a memo from the White House's Office of Management and Budget obtained by Defense News in December. The memo also called for cutting an Arleigh Burke destroyer, but it appears to have been restored in trade-offs. Another controversial move in the budget is the decommissioning of the first four littoral combat ships, likewise a move forecast in the OMB memo, as well as the early decommissioning of a dock landing ship. The budget also requests a $2.5 billion cut to aircraft procurement over 2020's enacted levels, requesting $17.2 billion. The budget calls for 24 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets fighter jets, 21 F-35C jets (between the Navy and Marine Corps), and four E-2D Hawkeye aircraft. The budget also funds $160 million in shipyard upgrades, as well as research into the Common Hull Auxiliary Multi-Mission Platform to the tune of $17 million. There is also $208 million in research and development for the DDG-1000 class, as well as $216 million for the Ford class. It also funds the procurement of two new large unmanned surface vessels. Columbia cuts? For years the Navy has warned that once the service starts buying the Columbia class, it's going to have a significant impact on everything else the Navy wants to buy. In a 2013 hearing before the House Armed Service Committee's sea power subpanel, then-Navy Director of Undersea Warfare Rear Adm. Richard Breckenridge testified that failure to realign the Department of Defense's budget by even 1 percent would have a devastating impact on the Navy's shipbuilding program. "The Navy recognizes that without a supplement this is going to have a devastating impact on our other general-purpose ships and is working with the [Office of the Secretary of Defense] and with Congress to identify the funds necessary, which I mentioned earlier represent less than 1 percent of the DoD budget for a 15-year period, to provide relief and fund this separately above and beyond our traditional norms for our shipbuilding budget,” Breckenridge said. But with the rubber meeting the road, the Navy's budget instead went down by almost 20 percent. In an interview with Defense News, Esper rejected the idea of moving Columbia out of the Navy's shipbuilding account, even as he called for a much larger fleet in the future. The Navy must tighten its belt to reduce the impact on the budget, Esper said, adding that the Air Force is in a similar financial bind. “Clearly the Columbia is a big bill, but it's a big bill we have to pay,” Esper said. “That's the Navy's bill. The Air Force has a bill called bombers and ground-based strategic deterrent, so that's a bill they have to pay. “We all recognize that. Acting Secretary [of the Navy Thomas] Modly and I have spoken about this. He believes, and I think he's absolutely correct, that there are more and more efficiencies to be found within the department, the Navy and the Marine Corps, that they can free up money to invest into ships, into platforms.” It is unclear, however, where the Navy will be able to find that money. Despite years of record defense budgets under the Trump administration, the Navy — at its current size of 294 ships — is struggling to field sufficient manpower. It has also struggled with the capacity of its private shipyards and is scouring the country for new places to fix its ships. Furthermore, there are questions about whether the Navy is adequately funding its surge forces, given that the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was stranded on a Middle East deployment for more than 10 months because the carrier relieving it had a casualty. The Navy declined to use its surge forces and instead extended Abraham Lincoln's deployment, according to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Michael Gilday. Esper said the Navy must look to smaller ships to grow, even though the current budget also defunds a second FFG(X) planned for this year. The FFG(X) was developed to field significant capabilities for about half the price of an Arleigh Burke so they could be bought in greater number. “We need to move away from large platforms,” Esper said. “We need to move to smaller and more ships. We need to move to optionally manned.” The idea of moving to a more lightly manned fleet with an unmanned option is currently en vogue with the Navy, and it's partly driven by the fact that 35-40 percent of the shipbuilding budget is eaten up by the Columbia class for the foreseeable future. That's something that all parties are coming around to, Esper said. “[Acting Secretary Modly] agrees, so there's no doubt he's on board," Epser said. “I know the chairman and I have had the same conversations. I've heard from members of Congress. If you go look at the think tank literature that's out there, they will tell you generally the same thing. We need to move forward in that direction.” Optionally manned vs. optionally unmanned Experts disagree over the degree to which the Navy should pursue a more lightly manned construct, and the difference appears to be philosophical: The Navy is developing an “optionally manned” ship; a recent Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments study led by analyst Bryan Clark is proposing an “optionally unmanned” ship. It may seem like a small difference, but building a ship designed from the ground up to support humans is a major difference from a boat that can accommodate a few humans if the operators want to. The Navy is currently pursuing a large unmanned surface vessel, or LUSV, which is based on a commercial offshore support vessel, as part of an effort that started in the aegis of the Office of the Secretary of Defense's Special Capabilities Office and is now run by the Navy. The service describes its planned LUSV as an external missile magazine that can significantly boost the number of missile tubes fielded for significantly less money than buying Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which cost nearly $2 billion per hull. The Navy has discussed equipping the LUSV with the ability to house sailors, but the vessel would be largely designed as an unmanned platform, which would save money because there likely won't be a need for structure that supports human habitation. Sailors supporting an LUSV might use a port-a-potty and eat MREs rather than building an at-sea septic system and galley, for example. But therein lies the problem with the LUSV, according to the study by CSBA: What would the Navy do with those vessels, which it intends to buy in mass, when it's not trading missiles with China? Before the Navy gets too far down the road of fielding an optionally manned LUSV, the Navy should pony up for a more expensive but more useful corvette that, in the event of war, could be unmanned and used as the envisioned external missile magazine, the study said. “The Navy's planned LUSV would also be an approximately 2,000-ton ship based on an [offshore support vessel] design,” the study read. “In contrast to the optionally manned LUSV, the DDC [corvette] would be an optionally unmanned vessel that would normally operate with a crew. By having small crews, DDCs could contribute to peacetime training, engagement, maritime security, and deterrence.” In other words, for every scenario short of war, there would be a small warship that can execute normal naval missions — missions that ideally deter conflict from occurring in the first place. The study described a vessel that would be crewed with as many as 24 sailors, but would retain the ability to be unmanned in a crisis. “Instead of procuring an optionally manned LUSV that may be difficult to employ throughout the spectrum of competition and conflict, CSBA's plan introduces a similarly designed DDC that is designed to be, conversely, optionally unmanned and would normally operate with small crews of around 15–24 personnel,” the report read. “DDCs primarily armed with offensive weapons would serve as offboard magazines for force packages.” https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/10/355-as-secdef-backs-a-bigger-fleet-dod-moves-to-cut-shipbuilding-by-20-percent/

  • Here’s how much one future TF-X fighter jet will cost Turkey

    March 17, 2021 | International, Aerospace

    Here’s how much one future TF-X fighter jet will cost Turkey

    The maker of the TF-X also has plans to install a Ukrainian engine on its new Atak II-class T929 helicopter.

  • As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can The F-35A Program Survive Intact?

    March 23, 2020 | International, Aerospace

    As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can The F-35A Program Survive Intact?

    Steve Trimble Original estimates for costs, schedules and quantities of the Lockheed Martin F-35 upon contract award in October 2001 proved highly unreliable over the fighter program's nearly two-decade life span, but one critical number did not: 1,763. That four-digit figure represents program of record quantity for the U.S. Air Force—the F-35's largest customer by far—accounting for more than half of all projected orders by U.S. and international customers. The Navy and Marine Corps, the second- and third-largest buyers of the combat aircraft, respectively, downsized their planned F-35 fleet by 400 aircraft in 2004. But the Air Force's quantity never budged. Although the Air Force's official number remains unchanged, the F-35A is facing a new credibility test after a series of public statements made by Gen. Mike Holmes, the head of Air Combat Command (ACC). Air Force will consider UAS to replace some F-16s ACC sets 60% goal for fifth-gen mix in fighter fleet In late February, Holmes suggested that low-cost and attritable unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) might be considered by ACC as a replacement for F-16 Block 25/30 jets (also known as “pre-block F-16s”) within 5-8 years. In congressional testimony on March 12, Holmes added that ACC's goal is to achieve a fighter fleet ratio of 60% fifth-generation jets, such as F-35As and F-22s, to 40% fourth-generation aircraft, including F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. He also said a recent analysis by the Office of the Secretary of Defense recommends an even split between fourth- and fifth-generation fighters. Barring a significant increase in the Air Force's authorized force structure, both statements appear to jeopardize the mathematical possibility for the F-35A to achieve the full program of record. As fleet acquisition plans stand today, the F-35A program of record appears sound. Lockheed has delivered at least 224 F-35As to the Air Force so far. The public program of record calls for the F-35A to replace A-10s and F-16s, which currently number 281 and 1,037, respectively, according to Aviation Week and Air Force databases. In 2010, Lockheed and F-35 Joint Program Office officials also confirmed that the F-35 would replace the F-15E fleet after 2035, which currently numbers 228 aircraft. Adding the number of F-35As already delivered, the Air Force has a replacement population of 1,770 aircraft. But Holmes' statements could significantly alter the equation. The service's latest budget justification documents show about 325 of the 1,037 F-16s now in the Air Force fleet form the “pre-block” fleet that could be retired by attritable UAS instead of F-35As. Holmes' goal of a fighter fleet with a 60% share of fifth-generation jets also complicates the forecast for the F-35A. Including the F-22 fleet's 186 aircraft, as well as 234 F-15C/Ds, the Air Force today operates a total fleet of 2,190 fighters. A 60% share of the fleet results in 1,314 total fifth-generation aircraft. After subtracting the numbers of F-22s, the Air Force would have room for only 1,128 F-35As, which implies a 34% reduction from the program of record of 1,763. The head of the Air Force's F-35 Integration Office acknowledges the numerical disparity implied by Holmes' statements, but he stands by the F-35 original program of record. “The program of record for this aircraft is really long,” Brig. Gen. David Abba said on March 9, referring to the Air Force's plans to continue F-35A production into the mid-2040s. “I understand that's a natural question to ask, but I don't think anybody's ready to make that sort of a declaration.” Altering the program of record would not change the steady, downward trajectory of the F-35A's recurring unit costs. Last year, Lockheed agreed to a priced option for Lot 14 deliveries in fiscal 2022, which falls to $77.9 million. But changing the overall procurement quantity does have an impact on the program acquisition unit cost (PAUC), which calculates the average cost per aircraft, including recurring and nonrecurring costs. In the program of record, the PAUC estimate is currently $116 million each for all three versions of the F-35. Noting the forecast length of the F-35 production program, Abba recommends taking a long-term view. “I would focus less on the program of record element,” Abba said, and more on the Air Force's plans “to keep options open.” https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/usaf-fleet-plans-evolve-can-f-35a-program-survive-intact

All news