June 17, 2019 | International, Other Defence
By: Kelsey Reichmann
WASHINGTON — The number of warheads has decreased over the past year, even as countries continue to modernize their nuclear forces, according to an annual assessment of global nuclear arms.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 on the current state of armaments, disarmament and international security.
The report found that 13,865 warheads in existence at the start of 2019 were owned by nine nations: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
The year before hosted an arsenal of 14,465 warheads.
“A key finding is that despite an overall decrease in the number of nuclear warheads in 2018, all nuclear weapon-possessing states continue to modernize their nuclear arsenals,” Jan Eliasson, SIPRI Governing Board chair ambassador and former deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, said in a news release.
The U.S. and Russia were the only nations that decreased their warhead inventory, by 265 and 350 respectively, according to the report.
The U.K., China, Pakistan, North Korea and possibly Israel all increased their number of warheads, SIPRI found. India and France saw no changes to the size of their arsenals.
One big cause of the decrease in arsenal size, according to SIPRI, is the implementation of the New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia, meant to reduce and set limits on ballistic missiles. The two nations produce more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear arms.
The U.S. and Russia announced in 2018 that they had met the limits of the New START Treaty. But if an extension is not implemented, the treaty will expire in 2021.
What's the United States up to?
The U.S. is in the process of modernizing its nuclear arsenal per the Trump administration 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, which put forth measures to continue a modernization program started by the Obama administration. However, the NPR moves away from reducing nuclear weapons and instead sets a plan to develop new versions while and modifying others.
The U.S. hopes to achieve its goals by expanding nuclear options to include low-yield nuclear weapons, which will expand capabilities associated with submarine-launched ballistic missiles. This would add to a U.S. arsenal that already contains 1,000 gravity bombs and air-launched cruise missiles with low-yield warhead options, according to the SIPRI report.
The NPR claims these new capabilities are necessary without evidence that the existing arsenal is insufficient.
The SIPRI report notes that America's focus on its nonstrategic nuclear arsenal could push other nations in that same direction.
Where does Russia stand?
“Russia's decisions about the size and composition of its non-strategic nuclear arsenal appear to be driven by the USA's superiority in conventional forces and not by the US non-strategic nuclear arsenal or by weapons yield," according to the SIPRI report.
"Instead, pursuit of a new [submarine-launched cruise missile] to ‘provide a needed non-strategic regional presence' in Europe and Asia could — especially when combined with the parallel expansion of US long-range conventional strike capabilities — strengthen Russia's reliance on non-strategic nuclear weapons and potentially could even trigger Chinese interest in developing such a capability,” the report adds.
SIPRI data shows Russia has about 4,330 nuclear warheads; approximately 1,830 of them are categorized as nonstrategic.
In 2018, Russia continued long-range operations over the Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans. And in December, it also sent to Venezuela two Tu-160 planes, which are part of its long-range aviation command fleet.
Russia also fired air-launched cruise missiles from a Tu-160 bomber over northern Russia in November, which caught attention because the number of cruise missiles launched.
Meanwhile, in China, India and Pakistan ...
China has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads. Though China is working to expand its nuclear forces, the report notes, it has said it's committed to a no-first-use policy. However, the report added that China has taken steps to improve its retaliation response.
Rivals India and Pakistan each provide little information about the size of their nuclear arsenals. However, they have made separate statements about missile tests. India has an estimated 130-140 warheads, and Pakistan has an estimated 150-160 warheads.
Both nations are estimated to have increased their arsenal by 10 to 20 warheads in the last year.
North Korea has provided little transparency about it nuclear weapons capabilities, besides announcing missile tests afterward. It's estimated the country has 20-30 warheads, which would be an increase of 10-20 warheads from a 2018 estimate.
The SIPRI report cites a lack of transparency from most nations in regard to nuclear stockpiles.
The U.S., the U.K. and France have disclosed some information about their respective arsenals. Information from other nations is mainly based on missile tests and the supply of military fissile materials.
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August 7, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security
By: Vivek Raghuvanshi NEW DELHI — The Indian government on Monday introduced a new draft policy that sets a $25 billion defense production target, including making $5 billion from exports, by 2025. The Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy is meant to bolster local production of weapons and platforms by developing “a dynamic, robust and competitive” defense industry. The draft policy also said the Ministry of Defence will set up a technology assessment cell to assess industry's ability to design, develop, produce and re-engineer assembly lines to manufacture major systems such as armored vehicles, submarines, fighter aircraft, helicopters and radars. “The DPEPP 2020 is envisaged as overarching guiding to provide a focused, structured and significant thrust to defense production capabilities of the country for self-reliance and exports,” the MoD said. However, some defense experts and analysts are unimpressed with the draft policy. Amit Cowshish, a former financial adviser for acquisition with the MoD, said the DPEPP is high on rhetoric but low on specifics. India's current defense production turnover is about $11.42 billion. Of this, $9 billion comes from state-owned enterprises and ordnance factories, while the private sector accounts for $2.42 billion. From the total amount, $1.53 billion comes from export business. It disregards financial reality, which is grimmer now due to the rampant pandemic than was the case in the past,” Cowshish said, referring to the spread of the coronavirus that has hit economies worldwide. A more productive defense industry in India will depend on how much money the government can spare for local procurement as well as the availability of materiel in the domestic market — two factors that should be a matter of concern, particularly with export targets, according to Cowshish. Currently, India spends about $18.52 billion annually on weapons and platform purchases, out of which 60 percent is sourced from domestic companies, with remaining supplies coming from foreign vendors. About $11 billion of those appropriated funds go toward India's 50 state-owned laboratories focused on defense research and development, nine state-owned companies, and 41 ordnance factories. Conversely, private defense companies, including 3,500 micro and small enterprises, get a little over $2 billion from this. A CEO of a private defense company in India, speaking to Defense News on condition of anonymity, said the draft policy fails to provide “a clear road map and direction for streamlining defense procurement and production.” He argued that defense production will only improve if there's mutual trust, hand-holding, active participation and patience in the development process between the private and public sector. Senior executives at the state-owned enterprises Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and Bharat Electronics Limited would not comment on the draft policy, saying they are not authorized by the government to comment on MoD policy issues. However, Venkatesh Damal Kannan, a former research and development director with Hindustan Aeronautics, said achieving the $25 billion target would be possible if the current capital allocation of $18.52 billion for purchasing weapons and platforms is doubled. There should also be a willingness from the Indian military to field a larger number of indigenous products, Kannan added, and improved bureaucratic processes in the MoD. However, Cowshish said the military's arms requirements should not be held hostage by efforts for indigenization. “In the meantime, especially in situations like the one we are faced with vis-a-vis China, there is no alternative to buying equipment, platforms, ammunition from abroad if what is needed is not available in India,” he said. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/08/06/india-looks-to-make-25-billion-in-defense-production-by-2025/
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