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October 16, 2018 | Local, Aerospace

CAE releases its first Business Jet Pilot Demand Outlook: 50,000 new business jet pilots required over the next 10 years

CAE released today at the 2018 National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) convention and exhibition its 2018 CAE Airline and Business Jet Pilot Demand Outlook. This is an update to last year's report, which provides, for the first time, a business jet pilot demand forecast. The renewed 10-year view offers fleet operators key insights on the future need for professional pilots in both business and commercial aviation, building on the markets' key drivers, variables and trends.


The report demonstrates that the active business jet pilot population will reach 65,000 by 2028, which represents an increase of 18%, with a turnover rate of almost 100%. More specifically, 10,000 new business jet pilots will be required to sustain growth and 40,000 new business jet pilots will be needed to support retirement attrition across the segment over the next decade.


“The CAE Airline and Business Jet Pilot Demand is a one-of-a kind report. Our 2018 update builds on last year's analysis while introducing for the first time a business jet pilot forecast and shedding light on ways the aviation industry can cope with this demand,” said Marc Parent, CAE's President and Chief Executive Officer. “Today's soaring pilot demand is a reality that we must all face. As the leading training organization in the world, we are honoured to offer our partners the training solutions they need to face this rising demand.”


The 2018 CAE Airline and Business Jet Pilot Demand Outlook is available for download at www.cae.com/civil-aviation.

https://www.cae.com/news-events/press-releases/cae-releases-its-first-business-jet-pilot-demand-outlook-50000-new-business-jet-pilots-required-over-the-next-10-years

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  • Coping with COVID: The RCAF adjusts to the new world

    September 10, 2020 | Local, Aerospace

    Coping with COVID: The RCAF adjusts to the new world

    Editor's note: This story appears in the latest issue of RCAF Today. Access the full issue here. “We were at the highest level of readiness that we would have been at since the Korean War.” If that seems a perplexing statement from the commander of an Air Force that at one point during the current pandemic had about 70 per cent of its members working from home, LGen Al Meinzinger has a sound explanation. Though Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) headquarters sometimes resembled ghost towns, training schools were paused, operational training units (OTUs) were scaled back to critical force generation activity, and flight operations were at times curtailed, over 83 per cent of personnel were on short notice to activate. “I referred to it tongue and cheek as the team being readied in a martial arts crouch,” he said. “Nobody was away on course, nobody was out of country on temporary duty. Almost 100 per cent of our team was conducting operations, supporting operations or at home ... on a very high alert level to respond as directed.” When the coronavirus flared in communities across Canada in mid-March, the RCAF quickly adopted a posture intended to preserve the force. The health and safety of members and their families became the top priority. At the direction of the Chief of the Defence Staff and military and civilian health authorities, training courses for Reserve cadets, new recruits, technician trades and professional upgrades were halted and over a thousand students returned to barracks or home. Travel for leave was limited. Operational flights were re-routed to avoid COVID hot spots where possible. The operational tempo dipped but did not stop. Transport squadrons continued to support operations in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and elsewhere; fighter squadrons and 22 Wing North Bay, Ont., the Canadian Air Defence Sector, maintained the NORAD mission; and search and rescue units responded around the clock to calls across the country. 8 Wing Trenton, Ont., even became a quarantine site in the early days of the pandemic for Canadian passengers lifted from a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, docked in Japan. But at Wings and in aircraft, new health and safety measures were introduced to mitigate the risk of infection and transmission. Students were sequestered. Access to workspaces was restricted and traffic flow through some buildings was altered to limit contact. Meetings migrated to Zoom and other video technology. Aircrews conducted virtual handovers. On transport planes, new protocols for mask wearing and passenger screening became the norm. “We have remained focused on the health of our people throughout,” said Meinzinger. “It was impressive how swiftly the team was able to introduce a raft of new protocols.” The payoff has been evident in the number of COVID-19 cases in the RCAF. At no point have they exceeded single digits, he noted. At the time of the interview in early July, no member was sidelined due to the virus. While personnel health was critical, the quick reaction to preserve Air Force capacity was a necessary precaution for what the RCAF suspected could be a busy period ahead. Following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) had developed a contingency plan known as Operation Laser to counter a future pandemic. Accordingly, among the CAF's first responses to COVID-19 was the stand-up of six regional task forces to respond to provincial requests for assistance, each with an air detachment of either helicopters or fixed-wing aircraft to provide transport and other services. At the same time, the RCAF was bracing for the urgent calls for air assets under Operation Lentus, the CAF response to natural disasters. Spring flooding and summer forest fires have threatened Canadian communities with increasing frequency in recent years, and assistance with surveillance or evacuation appeared to be in the cards once again. “At the outset, we were looking at dealing with COVID-19 responses and potentially having to support the government with Op Lentus tasks,” said Meinzinger. Since training for Air Combat Systems Officers and Airborne Electronic Sensor Operators was on pause at 402 Squadron in Winnipeg, the RCAF even put the CT-142 Dash-8 “Gonzo” and its aircrews on standby to provide additional airlift. Resuming, at a distance The Air Force is now in the process of working through a business resumption plan that calls for a “controlled, conditions-based” return of activities. In truth, the plan is more about increasing the tempo at Wings, squadrons and headquarters. Mindful of the damage to readiness if core activity ground to a halt, operational squadrons continued to fly and OTUs maintained some flight and technician training for graduates earmarked for possible deployment. Now, it's a matter of ramping up while adapting to the unknowns of the pandemic. Already, about 50 per cent of personnel at 1 Canadian Air Division (1 CAD) and 2 Canadian Air Division are back in their offices and workspaces. “Readiness is everything from your level of flying currency, the recency of that flying, to your knowledge, so we wanted to make sure that we didn't see our readiness shift,” said Meinzinger. “But we are being very diligent in how we are ramping up.” His conditions include the availability of personal protective equipment (PPE), especially face masks, the ability to operate safely, and the ability to move personnel about the country while still meeting the guidelines of provincial health authorities. Already, some courses have resumed, albeit in modified classrooms, and training programs have adapted to shortened weeks in which different cohorts rotate every three days to “reduce the footprint” of both students and instructors. One of the consequences of COVID-19 could be a willingness to embrace distance working. As part of a multi-year retention strategy, the RCAF has been evaluating the merits of working remotely to limit the number of moves a member makes and better accommodate family situations where both spouses serve in the CAF and a move is not conducive for one. Before the pandemic, for example, the RCAF Aerospace Warfare Centre at 8 Wing Trenton, Ont., known as the RAWC, was “leveraging brains rather than bodies” by allowing team members to work remotely from locations such as Comox, B.C., and Gagetown, N.B. “We were already seeing that that model was very effective,” said Meinzinger. “Not only was it delivering operational output ... but more importantly, it was creating better balance in personal lives.” As RCAF headquarters moves to the Carling Campus in Ottawa, he's tasked his deputy commander, MGen Blaise Frawley, to “look at what a Headquarters 2.0 structure looks like, including how many [staff] could work from home for a majority of their work day.” “It's an adaptation and it obviously recognizes the need for a healthy workplace. We may see more shift work happening in the HQ, similar to the three-day model,” he explained. “There is a new reality with COVID-19 and that will probably reshape some of our thinking.” That reality will likely renew discussion around distance learning and the expanded role of simulation and other technologies in training programs. In an ideal world, the RCAF would have a distance learning package for every course “that students could immediately access in a pandemic,” he said. The Canadian Forces School of Aerospace Technology and Engineering at 16 Wing Borden, Ont., is already well down that road with the use of virtual reality (VR) and other tools in the training curriculum of various trades. And CH-148 Cyclone crews are learning hoist mission training on a Bluedrop Training & Simulation VR system at 12 Wing Shearwater, N.S. More recently in June, the RCAF Command Team course for anointed Commanding Officers and unit Chief Warrant Officers was delivered at distance using “modern tools,” he said. “This pandemic has underscored the value of having a greater amount of simulation [and remote learning] within the enterprise.” Return engagement for pilots? As with any crisis, the pandemic response has highlighted capability gaps and opportunities. Assessing the full impact of COVID-19 remains a work in progress – “we're still drawing deductions,” said Meinzinger – but it has confirmed the agility of the Air Force to alter course on the fly. In the first months, units stepped up to develop and deliver PPE for the CAF, including the Aerospace Telecommunications and Engineering Support Squadron at 8 Wing Trenton, which re-rolled to produce medical-grade face shields for Health Services personnel. And when a gap in keeping infected patients isolated from the aircrew was identified, the Directorate of Aerospace Requirements spearheaded the rapid procurement of aeromedical bio containment containers to allow a medical practitioner to care for multiple infected patients in the back of a CC-177 Globemaster or CC-130J Hercules. “That procurement was pivotal and we'll reap the benefit of that work in the coming months” when it is delivered, said Meinzinger. “These systems will complement the superb work related to on-aircraft PPE tactics, techniques, and procedures that have been developed by the 1 CAD team to ensure the safety of our aircrew.” The pandemic might also help with the battle all western air forces have been waging for the past several years, as the commercial airline boom attracted both pilots and maintenance technicians. With civil aviation now in a tailspin and many pilots furloughed or laid off, the RCAF could see the return of former members. The CAF has been working to re-enrol recently retired members for the past few years, hoping to attract experience back to either the Regular or Reserve Force. After the effect of the pandemic on the aerospace sector became apparent, the RCAF launched a campaign on social media to “rejoin the team” and increased the capacity in its Intake and Liaison Team to help interested former members make the transition. To date, about 200 have expressed an interest and 100 are considered serious prospects, spanning a range of Regular and Reserve Force officer and non-commissioned member trades. In the past four months, about 55 have completed applications. Meinzinger expects that to increase. Following the upheaval to civil aviation after 9/11, the Air Force saw a similar trend line. “It takes a bit of time for individuals to contemplate their future,” he said. “There is a family decision [involved] ... but we anticipate in the coming months there will be [greater interest] from those individuals who are affected.” Though the emphasis is on recent military experience, “we'll take any calls,” he added, noting that the ambition of the government's defence policy means “we are going to need a bigger RCAF team.” Trying to predict the trajectory of the pandemic over the next months is almost impossible, but it's a question “I think about each and every day,” Meinzinger acknowledged. He has been drawing on a “fraternity” of air chiefs from allied countries to gather lessons and help shape the RCAF response. The only certainty is “to remain very agile” and adapt to what Gen David Goldfein, chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, has called the new non-normal. “The cadence and the rhythm of the pandemic is going to clearly shape the way that we move forward,” said Meinzinger. “We want to be as best prepared as we can be.” https://www.skiesmag.com/features/coping-with-covid-rcaf-adjust-new-world/

  • Why it is time for smart protectionism

    July 20, 2020 | Local, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Why it is time for smart protectionism

    Put simply, Canadian governments have a responsibility to practise smart protectionism where the risks to Canadians' personal security and national security are high. Free trade is good economics. Protectionism is bad. Global supply chains are efficient. Favouring domestic goods, services and industries is inefficient. Canada has long adhered to these orthodoxies. And most of the time it makes sense to do so. However, through the COVID-19 pandemic, both the public and private sectors have seen weaknesses associated with heavy or total reliance on foreign sources and global supply chains for essential goods, notably personal protective equipment (PPE). As of June 2, for example, the Government of Canada had ordered close to 122 million N95 masks from international suppliers, yet 12 million had been received and 9.8 million of those failed Canadian standards. We are learning the hard way that foreign sources cannot necessarily supply the products we need in the time, quantity or quality required during a national or global emergency. China, as the dominant global producer of many of these PPE supplies, has become the focal point for an emerging debate around domestic control over certain goods, technologies, and services. A recent report from the Henry Jackson Society in the U.K., for example, has argued the “Five Eyes”—the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand—are far too reliant on Chinese sources for all kinds of strategically important goods, and that this is a threat to the national security of those countries. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service, too, has warned that Canadian companies that produce certain critical technologies are vulnerable to foreign takeovers by entities with agendas hostile to Canada's interests. This is not just an issue with China, though. In Canada, we like to believe that in national or global crises we can rely on the U.S. or other allies for help. Canada, in other words, would be at or near the front of the line with allies. The COVID-19 pandemic, and the behavior of the U.S. and European countries, suggests this is naive. Italy, a founding EU member, requested and was denied face masks from the EU's stockpile at the peak of their COVID-19 outbreak. In April, a presidential executive order gave the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency the power to “allocate to domestic use” several types of PPE that would otherwise be exported. U.S. produced masks bound for Germany, a close American ally, were reportedly diverted back while in transit. Ultimately, Canada was exempt from the U.S. order, but this episode should tell us that global emergencies can lead to “home front comes first” attitudes, even among our closest allies. Fundamentally, the issue comes down to one of efficiency versus necessity. Sometimes, in some areas of the economy, security of supply is more important than efficiency. While this thinking is new to most companies and governments in Canada, it is not new to Canadian companies working in defence and national security. The Canadian defence industry has long highlighted the need for focused sovereign production and control in key national security capabilities—in part to ensure security of supply—as our allies in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere have been doing for generations. The argument has fallen largely on deaf ears. There seems to be a greater aversion in Canada to any kind of protectionism than among our more pragmatic allies. There is also a belief that Canada can always rely on obtaining critical supplies from the U.S., owing to both our close trading relationship and bi-lateral defence agreements dating from the 1950s that purport to establish an integrated North American defence industrial base. Canada puts too much faith in these beliefs, to our peril. While we can still hold free trade and integrated global supply chains as the goal, we also need to recognize that this view of the economy does not always serve our national interests. Put simply, Canadian governments have a responsibility to practise smart protectionism where the risks to Canadians' personal security and national security are high. Christyn Cianfarani is president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI). The Hill Times https://www.hilltimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/072020_ht.pdf

  • Comment le F-35 est réapparu sur le radar d’Ottawa

    June 3, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

    Comment le F-35 est réapparu sur le radar d’Ottawa

    Marc Godbout Justin Trudeau s'était engagé à ne pas acheter le F-35, l'avion de chasse de Lockheed Martin. Pourtant, de récentes manoeuvres rendent de plus en plus probable l'acquisition de l'appareil américain. Une réelle compétition aura-t-elle vraiment lieu pour remplacer les vieux chasseurs des Forces armées canadiennes? Les jeux de coulisse se sont intensifiés toute la semaine à Ottawa. L'enjeu est énorme : un contrat de 19 milliards de dollars pour 88 avions de combat canadiens. En toile de fond, le salon canadien des équipements militaires. Non seulement les lobbyistes sont plus actifs que jamais, mais leurs clients ont mis le paquet pour séduire et chercher à influencer le futur acheteur. Airbus et SAAB ont même fait venir d'Europe, par navire, des répliques de leurs avions de chasse respectifs. Mais au-delà des apparences, l'inquiétude s'est installée. Après le F-35, le F-35 Après des années d'attente, de dérapages et d'interminables débats, un appel d'offres du gouvernement fédéral doit finalement être lancé d'ici la mi-juillet. Il le sera juste avant la campagne électorale, près de quatre ans après l'élection des libéraux qui avaient promis d'amorcer le processus immédiatement en arrivant au pouvoir. Résultat? Le choix du gagnant ne sera annoncé qu'en 2022, et les premiers avions, livrés en 2025, au plus tôt. Les concurrents potentiels pour la construction des avions de chasse canadiens : Boeing (Super Hornet) Airbus (Typhoon) Saab (Gripen) Lockheed Martin (F-35) Quatre joueurs souhaiteraient être de la course. Mais le seront-ils tous? Le portrait pourrait très bien changer. Les pressions exercées par Washington sur Ottawa y sont pour beaucoup. L'administration Trump a obtenu des assouplissements au processus d'évaluation des retombées économiques au Canada pour s'assurer que le F-35 soit de la course. La politique canadienne d'approvisionnement militaire exige depuis très longtemps que les entreprises dépensent au pays l'équivalent de la valeur d'un contrat afin de renforcer l'industrie canadienne. Or, le programme du F-35, dont le Canada est l'un des neuf pays partenaires, est structuré autrement. Les entreprises canadiennes ont le droit de soumissionner pour des contrats mondiaux liés à la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Les pays partenaires ne peuvent, par contre, exiger des avantages économiques comme condition préalable à l'achat de l'appareil. Voilà que la récente révision obtenue par Washington permet à Lockheed Martin et son avion de ne pas être écartés de la compétition quoiqu'ils seraient pénalisés s'ils choisissent un système différent. On est donc bien loin de la promesse électorale de 2015 de Justin Trudeau, qui s'engageait à ne pas acheter l'avion de Lockheed Martin. Les libéraux ont tout fait pour se distancer du F-35 dans la foulée du fiasco qui collait à la peau des conservateurs. Mais la réalité a fini par rattraper le gouvernement Trudeau. « Sélectionner un appareil autre que le F-35 pourrait créer des tensions avec les Américains », soutient Justin Massie, professeur de science politique à l'UQAM. « Le F-35 est important pour l'administration Trump, qui veut développer davantage l'industrie militaire américaine. » Ce revirement a eu l'effet d'une douche froide chez les concurrents. « Il ne serait pas étonnant de voir des joueurs se retirer dès le départ ou en cours de route. Ils sont furieux », a confié à Radio-Canada une source très proche du dossier. Tant l'américaine Boeing que l'européenne Airbus et la suédoise Saab disent maintenant attendre « l'ensemble des exigences » de l'appel d'offres avant d'annoncer leurs intentions finales. « Nous sommes sur nos gardes [....] et de plus en plus incertains de vouloir nous lancer », a même indiqué un dirigeant de l'une de ces compagnies, sous le couvert de l'anonymat. Retour vers le futur Le temps est-il en train de jouer en faveur du F-35? Possiblement. « Le volume de production du F-35 entraîne la diminution du coût à l'unité qui est inférieur à celui de ses concurrents qui sont moins avancés sur le plan technologique », expliquait récemment Richard Shimooka dans un rapport de l'Institut Macdonald-Laurier. Alors que le coût par avion dépassait les 200 millions de dollars américains au début de la production en 2007, il devrait passer sous la barre des 80 millions d'ici 2020, selon le Pentagone. Plus de 390 appareils ont été livrés dans le monde. Et pas plus tard que cette semaine, le président américain annonçait la vente de 105 avions supplémentaires à l'issue d'un sommet avec le premier ministre japonais. Les pays qui ont choisi le F-35 : États-Unis Royaume-Uni Italie Pays-Bas Norvège Danemark Belgique Turquie Japon Australie Israël Corée du Sud Il s'est déjà écoulé neuf ans depuis l'annonce par le gouvernement Harper de l'achat de 65 avions F-35. « La modernisation de nos vieux F-18 a coûté beaucoup d'argent. Et l'acquisition de chasseurs intérimaires australiens a coûté au bas mot un milliard de dollars de plus aux contribuables canadiens », déplore Justin Massie. Neuf ans plus tard, le Canada a commencé à recevoir ses premiers F-18 australiens usagés, toujours dans l'attente d'une solution permanente. Il est quand même plutôt ironique de constater que l'Australie voulait s'en débarrasser pour recevoir ses premiers F-35 tout neufs. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1173077/canada-avions-chasse-f-35-achat-armee

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