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June 3, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

Comment le F-35 est réapparu sur le radar d’Ottawa

Marc Godbout

Justin Trudeau s'était engagé à ne pas acheter le F-35, l'avion de chasse de Lockheed Martin. Pourtant, de récentes manoeuvres rendent de plus en plus probable l'acquisition de l'appareil américain. Une réelle compétition aura-t-elle vraiment lieu pour remplacer les vieux chasseurs des Forces armées canadiennes?

Les jeux de coulisse se sont intensifiés toute la semaine à Ottawa. L'enjeu est énorme : un contrat de 19 milliards de dollars pour 88 avions de combat canadiens.

En toile de fond, le salon canadien des équipements militaires. Non seulement les lobbyistes sont plus actifs que jamais, mais leurs clients ont mis le paquet pour séduire et chercher à influencer le futur acheteur.

Airbus et SAAB ont même fait venir d'Europe, par navire, des répliques de leurs avions de chasse respectifs. Mais au-delà des apparences, l'inquiétude s'est installée.

Après le F-35, le F-35

Après des années d'attente, de dérapages et d'interminables débats, un appel d'offres du gouvernement fédéral doit finalement être lancé d'ici la mi-juillet.

Il le sera juste avant la campagne électorale, près de quatre ans après l'élection des libéraux qui avaient promis d'amorcer le processus immédiatement en arrivant au pouvoir.

Résultat? Le choix du gagnant ne sera annoncé qu'en 2022, et les premiers avions, livrés en 2025, au plus tôt.

Les concurrents potentiels pour la construction des avions de chasse canadiens :

  • Boeing (Super Hornet)
  • Airbus (Typhoon)
  • Saab (Gripen)
  • Lockheed Martin (F-35)

Quatre joueurs souhaiteraient être de la course. Mais le seront-ils tous? Le portrait pourrait très bien changer.

Les pressions exercées par Washington sur Ottawa y sont pour beaucoup. L'administration Trump a obtenu des assouplissements au processus d'évaluation des retombées économiques au Canada pour s'assurer que le F-35 soit de la course.

La politique canadienne d'approvisionnement militaire exige depuis très longtemps que les entreprises dépensent au pays l'équivalent de la valeur d'un contrat afin de renforcer l'industrie canadienne.

Or, le programme du F-35, dont le Canada est l'un des neuf pays partenaires, est structuré autrement. Les entreprises canadiennes ont le droit de soumissionner pour des contrats mondiaux liés à la chaîne d'approvisionnement. Les pays partenaires ne peuvent, par contre, exiger des avantages économiques comme condition préalable à l'achat de l'appareil.

Voilà que la récente révision obtenue par Washington permet à Lockheed Martin et son avion de ne pas être écartés de la compétition quoiqu'ils seraient pénalisés s'ils choisissent un système différent.

On est donc bien loin de la promesse électorale de 2015 de Justin Trudeau, qui s'engageait à ne pas acheter l'avion de Lockheed Martin. Les libéraux ont tout fait pour se distancer du F-35 dans la foulée du fiasco qui collait à la peau des conservateurs. Mais la réalité a fini par rattraper le gouvernement Trudeau.

« Sélectionner un appareil autre que le F-35 pourrait créer des tensions avec les Américains », soutient Justin Massie, professeur de science politique à l'UQAM. « Le F-35 est important pour l'administration Trump, qui veut développer davantage l'industrie militaire américaine. »

Ce revirement a eu l'effet d'une douche froide chez les concurrents. « Il ne serait pas étonnant de voir des joueurs se retirer dès le départ ou en cours de route. Ils sont furieux », a confié à Radio-Canada une source très proche du dossier.

Tant l'américaine Boeing que l'européenne Airbus et la suédoise Saab disent maintenant attendre « l'ensemble des exigences » de l'appel d'offres avant d'annoncer leurs intentions finales.

« Nous sommes sur nos gardes [....] et de plus en plus incertains de vouloir nous lancer », a même indiqué un dirigeant de l'une de ces compagnies, sous le couvert de l'anonymat.

Retour vers le futur

Le temps est-il en train de jouer en faveur du F-35? Possiblement.

« Le volume de production du F-35 entraîne la diminution du coût à l'unité qui est inférieur à celui de ses concurrents qui sont moins avancés sur le plan technologique », expliquait récemment Richard Shimooka dans un rapport de l'Institut Macdonald-Laurier.

Alors que le coût par avion dépassait les 200 millions de dollars américains au début de la production en 2007, il devrait passer sous la barre des 80 millions d'ici 2020, selon le Pentagone.

Plus de 390 appareils ont été livrés dans le monde. Et pas plus tard que cette semaine, le président américain annonçait la vente de 105 avions supplémentaires à l'issue d'un sommet avec le premier ministre japonais.

Les pays qui ont choisi le F-35 :

  • États-Unis
  • Royaume-Uni
  • Italie
  • Pays-Bas
  • Norvège
  • Danemark
  • Belgique
  • Turquie
  • Japon
  • Australie
  • Israël
  • Corée du Sud

Il s'est déjà écoulé neuf ans depuis l'annonce par le gouvernement Harper de l'achat de 65 avions F-35.

« La modernisation de nos vieux F-18 a coûté beaucoup d'argent. Et l'acquisition de chasseurs intérimaires australiens a coûté au bas mot un milliard de dollars de plus aux contribuables canadiens », déplore Justin Massie.

Neuf ans plus tard, le Canada a commencé à recevoir ses premiers F-18 australiens usagés, toujours dans l'attente d'une solution permanente.

Il est quand même plutôt ironique de constater que l'Australie voulait s'en débarrasser pour recevoir ses premiers F-35 tout neufs.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1173077/canada-avions-chasse-f-35-achat-armee

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    Posted on May 15, 2020 by Chris Thatcher In an appearance before the Commons finance committee on May 12, Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux suggested the federal deficit could vastly exceed the $252 billion he projected in mid-April as the government continues to unveil relief measures to help Canadians and businesses withstand the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Most admit it is to too early to tell what that will mean for future military procurement and the government's 2017 defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE), but think tanks and defence analysts are nonetheless forecasting turbulence ahead. “Over the past generation, recessions and the fiscal consolidation that has followed them have had a seriously negative impact on DND's (Department of National Defence) budget,” wrote Eugene Lang, an adjunct professor with the School of Policy Studies at Queen's University and Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, in a recent policy paper for CGAI. “The future for SSE and its associated funding does not look bright. National defence probably has a year or two before the crunch hits.” Christyn Cianfarani is more cautious, but the president and chief executive officer of the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI) admits the “rumblings are there that we are naturally concerned. Anybody who knows their history will tell you that when federal governments have been in these deficit spending situations — and this is the largest since the Second World War — they typically will be looking for strategies to reduce that deficit in the long term and DND unfortunately is a target.” But pulling government funding from a sector that has weathered the COVID-19 storm reasonably well might be “counterintuitive,” she suggested. The sector “right now is one of the few that is able to contribute to the economy under this persistent pandemic environment ... If there are multiple waves of [the virus], defence will be one sector that actually can shoulder the ups and downs and return to remote operations if we get to that stage again.” “Pure play” defence companies with few or no ties to commercial aerospace and the travel industry have managed the risks well, she said. Most have so far avoided the workforce layoffs and temporary downsizing experienced in other sectors, though manufacturing has slowed to meet provincial health regulations. Some, in fact, have been hiring. “Aside from some localized instances of companies facing real challenges, I would say the overall health [of the sector] is not too bad,” she said. Following what she called a “choppy” roll out of COVID-19 related policies that cut across federal and provincial jurisdictions, defence companies have adapted. Some have retooled shop floors and supply chains to manufacture critically needed personal protective equipment (PPE). Others with government contracts have continued operations where possible, albeit at reduced levels to match restrictions at government facilities. Maintenance on some platforms such as submarines has halted. The federal government has been “very conscious of trying to keep the contracts moving and executing,” said Cianfarani. “For example, if you are in the Canadian shipbuilding program, you are still pushing forward. If you are part of that supply chain, that hasn't seen any tangible change in the expectations.” Furthermore, many smaller defence firms specialize in software development and cyber security, both of which remain in demand as governments and companies try to protect expanded networks that now include thousands of employees working from home. The greatest concern for members has been liquidity, she said. CADSI encouraged the Business Development Bank of Canada and Export Development Canada to set aside their traditional risk aversion to the defence sector as they work with private sector lenders to support access to capital. The Business Credit Availability Program includes loans of up to $60 million and guarantees of up to $80 million. “We are quite proud of making a big intervention on that,” she said. “It was supposed to be open for all businesses and, irrespective of ... whether you characterize certain businesses as higher risk than others, it is an incentive program at the federal level.” An essential service At the outset of the COVID-19 economic slowdown, CADSI was a vocal advocate for defence as an essential service and greater harmonization of federal and provincial policies, including the rules that allow embedded contractors to access Canadian Armed Forces facilities. As provincial governments now begin easing restrictions and take the first tentative steps to open their economies, the association is calling for guidance and common standards, especially for the use of protective masks, gloves and other clothing. Of particular concern are the rules for employees of companies that embed on Wings and Bases to provide training, platform maintenance, healthcare and other services. “Who has to wear protective health equipment in a DND facility and is it the same [federal standard] across different provincial jurisdictions?” said Cianfarani. “If Ontario decides you have to stand two metres apart and Nova Scotia doesn't have the same policy,” it will create confusion. “If you need a particular face mask to go onto a DND base to perform maintenance on their aircraft, what does that look like? If it is so specialized, can you help us procure it? Or, if it is not so specialized, can you give us a specification so we can ensure that we do have it when we get spooled up to work?” Likewise, what PPE do companies need to provide when DND and other government employees visit their facilities? DND has released some information on “what they are starting to classify as health equipment versus PPE,” she said. “If companies have that information, they won't get to a DND facility and be surprised by a piece of PPE they need or a standard of working they need to accommodate.” Made in Canada The economic repercussions of the pandemic likely won't be felt in the defence sector for some time. Cianfarani noted that some companies have found opportunity in the crisis and will increase investments in automation, big data and other elements of Industry 4.0 as they position for the future. “This is probably an acceleration of something that has been going on slowly in the background for quite sometime,” she observed. But the pandemic has opened the door to a renewed discussion about a national defence industrial strategy, an issue CADSI has been flagging for over a decade. Buying made-in-Canada defence and security platforms and systems is more expensive, but the past months have demonstrated that protectionism is “alive and well.” President Donald Trump in early April asked U.S.-based 3M to stop supply N95 masks to Canada. “The crisis has certainly given us and the government, and Canadians in general, a renewed interest in the concept of having sovereign capability,” she said. Shifting to a procurement culture that accepts the risks and costs of Canadian-built equipment won't happen quickly or easily — it took about seven years to study and adopt recommendations for Canadian key industrial capabilities, she noted — “but I really do think if there is any opportunity, it is probably now, because the shock is still very prevalent in everyone's mind.” https://www.skiesmag.com/news/canada-defence-industry-covid

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