2 novembre 2020 | Local, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

‘There could be turmoil’: How Canada is bracing for the U.S. election

By Mercedes Stephenson & Marc-André Cossette Global News

With the U.S. presidential election just days away, the Canadian government is steeling itself for the weeks of uncertainty that could ensue if the result is unclear or contested.

In the corridors of power in Ottawa, planning for this election started early, according to a senior government official who requested anonymity.

Those preparations have been intense, generating a flurry of briefings and threat assessments, as Canada braces for all scenarios.

Much hinges on how U.S. President Donald Trump will react on Election Night and the weeks that follow.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has shattered expectations of normal political behaviour.

He now appears willing to defy one of the most basic of democratic norms, having refused to say unequivocally whether he'll accept the results of the election if he loses.

John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, warns the president won't leave graciously if defeated.

“There could be turmoil,” Bolton said. “If he thinks confusion and chaos can help him hang on, can help affect recounts and contests, I think there's every prospect he'll engage in it.”

U.S. election highlighting need for ‘unified' response

In the aftermath of the election, multiple sources told Global News that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team will lean heavily on Canada's embassy in Washington and especially on Ambassador Kirsten Hillman.

Her predecessor, David MacNaughton, said Hillman has likely been in near-daily communication with the Prime Minister's Office, funnelling information that she has gleaned from her contacts in the White House, Congress, the U.S. State Department and American security agencies.

Back in Ottawa, the prime minister will want premiers and opposition parties on side too, MacNaughton said.

“When we're dealing with something as important as our relationship with the United States, we need to be unified,” he said, citing the non-partisan Team Canada approach that was taken when renegotiating NAFTA.

“That's what's going to be necessary, regardless of what happens with the outcome of this election.”

But so long as there's any doubt about the result, the prime minister would be wise to keep his powder dry, said Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy and defence adviser.

“Canadian prime ministers rarely have anything to gain by involving themselves in U.S. domestic politics, and they often have quite a bit to lose,” he said.

Aside from reaffirming Canada's confidence in the U.S. electoral process, the federal government will do all it can to avoid being drawn into the political firestorm raging south of the border.

Preparing for civil unrest and the ‘nightmare scenario'

Still, multiple sources said Canada can't ignore the possibility of civil unrest and violence in the United States.

For 10 years, Ward Elcock served as Canada's top spy, leading the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS).

He said there's no question that Trump's heated rhetoric has fuelled the resurgence of far-right extremism in the United States: a phenomenon that poses a serious threat as Americans decide who should lead their country for the next four years.

“There may well be some people who do weird things in the aftermath of the election, particularly if — as seems likely at this point — Mr. Trump loses and loses badly,” Elcock said.

“There may be some of his supporters who do get pushed into violent scenarios that are hard for us to imagine.”

Just one month ahead of the election, a report by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called white supremacists “the most persistent and lethal threat” in the country.

That threat is on Canada's radar too, according to Thomas Juneau, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former analyst with the Department of National Defence.

“One scenario that is always a nightmare scenario for Canada is the issue of security threats coming from Canada, crossing the Canadian-American border and reaching the U.S.,” he said.

“The fear on our side is always that the response on the American side will be to close the border, which economically would be devastating for us.”

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior national security source told Global News the federal government is quietly assessing the risk that election-related violence in the United States could spill over into Canada.

As a result, Canadian intelligence agencies will closely monitor potential flashpoints. Those include border states like Michigan, where the FBI recently foiled a militia plot to kidnap the state's governor, and Washington, where waves of anti-racism protests may have attracted more far-right extremists.

‘Not our first rodeo' managing U.S. disruption: experts

Despite the uncertainty swirling around the election, experts agree that ties between the Canadian and American defence and intelligence communities likely won't be affected.

“The underlying relationship is very strong,” Elcock said, describing it as one of interdependence.

“We may be a smaller partner, but we're not necessarily just a bit player,” he said.

And what if Trump were to issue wild orders in the post-election chaos — demanding, for example, that U.S. agencies cease all intelligence-sharing with allies?

Several intelligence sources said the U.S. defence and security apparatus likely won't take orders that it considers illegitimate.

“The United States is not disintegrating,” Elcock said.

“It may need a period of rest and rejuvenation after Mr. Trump passes from the scene, as inevitably he will at some point. But the reality is most of those organizations are still there and they're still capable.”

In other words, Trump may be disruptive, but the U.S. military and intelligence community is still run by professionals who won't toe the president's line if he goes rogue.

No matter what happens on Nov. 3, the overwhelming consensus appears to be that Americans will find a way to endure.

“This is not our first rodeo,” Bolton said.

“We've had bitterly contested elections before and we've gotten through it — and we'll get through this one, too.”

See this and other original stories about our world on The New Reality airing Saturday nights on Global TV, and online.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7432158/us-election-canada-preparations/

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  • ‘First-class’ fighter pilot becomes eVTOL entrepreneur

    28 janvier 2021 | Local, Aérospatial

    ‘First-class’ fighter pilot becomes eVTOL entrepreneur

    BY NATASHA MCKENTY | JANUARY 28, 2021 Estimated reading time 14 minutes, 58 seconds. Brandon Robinson's Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) and Top Aces fighter pilot exploits compare to those of a protagonist in a blockbuster movie. After graduating from the Royal Military College of Canada with First Class Honours, his career quickly skyrocketed from frontline fighter squadron to being selected for the prestigious Fighter Weapons Instructor Course (FWIC) – the Canadian version of Top Gun. He obtained an MBA at Royal Roads University, and then did a tour in Ottawa where he “managed over $4 billion in procurement projects for the Fighter Force.” He spent the next few years instructing for FWIC. “Think ‘Viper' from the movie Top Gun,” he laughed. I then completed our Joint Command and Staff College program for those flagged for senior leadership.” While instructing for FWIC, Robinson earned the CF-18 fighter pilot instructor role at 410 Squadron in Cold Lake, Alberta, leading into oversight of CF-18 Fleet Tactical Standards, and then onto senior project management with a deputy director role in multiple Air Force projects. Robinson is modest. He credits his competitive nature “and a lot of luck” for his success. “I fully acknowledge that without exceptionally talented and competitive friends, I would not have passed, let alone have been fortunate enough to fly jets,” he told Skies. He found Military College to be physically and emotionally demanding, having a way of teaching you your limits and how to “be at peace with them.” Despite the challenges, he was one of the top five engineers in the program all four years. For Robinson, aviation was innate. His grandfather, RCAF Capt Eric Robinson was a Second World War bomber pilot. His father, Brian Robinson, began flying at the age of 14, but his hopes of joining the Air Force were grounded when he learned his vision wasn't good enough. “My father was very young when he and [my grandfather] built from scrap metal what is now a family airplane — an old RC-3 Republic Seabee aircraft.” Brian retired from his day job to turn the family hobby into a successful custom aviation engineering business. There was always “an army of airplanes” in and around Robinson's home. The first time Robinson piloted a plane, he was three years old. His grandfather let him sit in the seat in front of him. “I couldn't sit. I had to stand,” he laughed. “He said, ‘OK, you have control, so take us over there.'” That experience “made an imprint” for Robinson. After high school, much to his “mother's chagrin,” he joined the RCAF to “fly fast jets.” After military training, “there's a big [graduation] ceremony where they hand out the slots, and I remember looking at the card and seeing the CF-18 symbol on the bottom,” he said. Internally, he was bursting. Not surprisingly, when asked about the memorable moments of his career, he said it's difficult to choose. Robinson recalled, after being on the Squadron for just three months in Bagotville, Quebec, he was deployed to Hawaii for a joint exercise with the U.S. Navy. “The U.S. Navy has this big exercise, and the Canadians were asked to go,” he said. “So, we ferried CF-18s across the country, from Quebec to Comox, British Columbia. We overnighted, met up with an aerial refueler and then the next thing I know I'm in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, tanking off a refueler. There's a portion where, if you can't get gas, you're going to have to eject because you can't get back to land. I'm a 27-year-old kid who only has 200 hours of experience in this CF-18, and I'm over the middle of the ocean thinking, ‘OK, you better make this happen.' It's not the easiest maneuver either,” he laughed. Robinson shared the story of how he earned his call-sign: Repo. “I was flying, and my left engine essentially blew up; one of the main turbine hubs fractured. It severely crippled the aircraft, placing it into a reversionary control architecture. The engine was destroyed, and the aircraft was on fire,” he said. After 10 “very long seconds” of being “out of control,” he “dealt with the fire” and regained control. “I was able to land it safely back at the base. However, it was too badly damaged to fix. So, the joke was that the government had to repossess or repo it,” he laughed. “The damaged engine almost fell out when I landed.” He remembered flying low-level over the ocean while “shooting missiles at drones and dropping bombs on remote-controlled moving ships; being in front of 100 angry fighter pilots leading a NATO coalition strike mission; [and] early morning departures over Torrey Pines in California to dogfight over the ocean.” In 2018, with 20 years of service and a list of neck and spine injuries in his rear-view, he knew it was time to find adrenaline elsewhere. “You can't pull seven-and-a-half Gs for 20 years without hurting a few things,” he laughed. Leaving, he admitted, was a difficult decision, but entrepreneurship was also on his radar. The kid that grew up in rural Ontario, Canada, with an “army of airplanes” at his disposal and a military career most would envy, headed out to his next call of duty. He joined forces with his father to start Horizon Aircraft, an aerospace startup that is currently developing the Cavorite X5 — a new eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) design for the urban air mobility market. Horizon has been developing the Cavorite X5 for the past two years. The concept for the X5 came from the company's initial prototype, the X3 — an amphibious design with a hybrid electric power system. “When we were asked to push the performance even further, we naturally began investigating distributed electric propulsion and the potential for eVTOL modification of the core X3 concept,” explained Robinson. “That's how the X5 The five-seat Cavorite X5 is powered by an electric motor coupled with a high-efficiency gas engine, but is ultimately built for fully electric flight. Horizon is building the aircraft to fly at speeds up to 350 kilometers per hour, with a 450-km range. The focus is to produce an aircraft “able to do real work in harsh environments,” including disaster relief, medevac, air cargo and personnel transport. Today, Robinson has his hands full with multiple patents pending, including a “fan-in-wing design” that would allow the Cavorite X5 to fly either like a conventional aircraft or an eVTOL when required. The X5 “flies like a normal aircraft for 99 percent of its mission,” said Robinson. The wing design “allows the aircraft to return to normal wing-borne lift after its vertical portion is complete; when moving forward, the wings close up and hide the vertical lift fans.” Horizon is working towards a large-scale prototype it hopes to have flying by the end of 2021. Robinson has become comfortable fielding questions based on skepticism. He's built an army of support from his highly-skilled network, including Virgin Galactic test pilot and close friend, Jameel Janjua. “Our team is extremely experienced, formed out of my father's previous custom aviation engineering business. We also have an individual leading the technical development who has designed, built and tested two novel aircraft designs from scratch. https://skiesmag.com/news/first-class-fighter-pilot-evtol-entrepreneur

  • Plan to split warship maintenance between Quebec and Nova Scotia shipyards prompts warnings of job losses

    9 octobre 2018 | Local, Naval

    Plan to split warship maintenance between Quebec and Nova Scotia shipyards prompts warnings of job losses

    David Pugliese, Ottawa Citizen Officials are concerned the Irving yard in Halifax won't be able to handle all the work as it will also be building the new Canadian Surface Combatant warships The federal government is looking at splitting up maintenance work on the Canadian navy's frigates between an east coast shipyard and one in Quebec, but is facing objections from Halifax workers and Irving Shipbuilding who warn the change will mean lost jobs in Nova Scotia. There are seven frigates that will need maintenance on the east coast over a five-year period. But military and Department of National Defence officials are concerned the Irving yard in Halifax won't be able to handle all the work as it will also be in the midst of building the new fleet of Canadian Surface Combatant warships. Each of the aging Halifax-class frigates will require about a year of maintenance work, and in 2020 the navy expects maintenance will be needed on two frigates at the same time. Irving won the original maintenance contract in 2011 but that deal is nearly expired.In order to keep the navy at sea, federal procurement officials are proposing splitting up the work between Irving and its rival, Davie Shipbuilding in Levis, Que. Pat Finn, assistant deputy minister of materiel at DND, said that while no final decision has been made, discussions are taking place about splitting up the work. “We have to do this maintenance,” he told Postmedia. “We've got a fair bit to do. We have to keep the navy operational.” Finn said the government's shipbuilding strategy is producing new vessels for both the navy and coast guard, all of which will have to be maintained in the future — a large task. “If we don't have two maintenance and repair facilities for the navy and the coast guard we're going to have a strategic problem,” he said. Union officials at the Halifax shipyard and, defence-industry sources say, Irving itself have been lobbying the Liberal government to stop the plan to send some work to Davie. Irving did not offer comment for this story, but Lana Payne, the Atlantic Regional Director for Unifor, the union representing around 900 employees at the Irving yard, said her organization is worried that as many as 300 staff could face layoffs if some of the work is transferred to Davie. “The Halifax-class has been historically (maintained) at the Halifax yard and the loss of that work will create a major problem for our membership,” she said. “Our understanding is that this is work they can easily do.” Unifor has brought its concerns to Nova Scotia Liberal MPs and other members of the Liberal government. The government will spend several hundred million dollars per frigate for each maintenance period. To date, Irving Shipbuilding Inc. has received more than $3.4-billion in contracts under the government's shipbuilding strategy. That includes contracts for the Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships and initial work on the surface combatant program. That also includes more than $511 million for repair, refit and maintenance contracts, according to federal government figures. The surface combatant program will result in an estimated $30 billion in build contracts for Irving, with work continuing into the 2040s. Sources within the federal government told Postmedia they do not see widespread layoffs arising from any decision to split the work between the yards. The government is also examining a plan to fast-track some aspects of the surface combatant program so the Irving yard is working at high capacity. Irving raised similar concerns in August after Davie received a contract to refit and upgrade three medium-size icebreakers purchased by the federal government. At the time, Irving noted that it and Seaspan Shipyards in Vancouver had been selected to build Canada's future fleets. “We call upon the Federal Government to confirm to Irving Shipbuilding, our shipbuilders and their families, the Province of Nova Scotia, and all Atlantic Canadians that the National Shipbuilding Strategy remains intact and, therefore, construction of the ships for Canada's Navy and Coast Guard will be done exclusively by Irving Shipbuilding and Vancouver Shipyards,” it pointed out in its statement. Treasury Board President Scott Brison, a Nova Scotia MP, said at the time that Irving's role in the shipbuilding strategy is secure but it has always been the case that other shipyards can compete for maintenance and refit work. • Email: dpugliese@postmedia.com https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/plan-to-split-warship-maintenance-between-quebec-and-nova-scotia-shipyards-prompts-warnings-of-job-losses

  • Interview de fin d’année avec le Ministre de la Défense nationale, Harjit Sajjan

    17 décembre 2019 | Local, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

    Interview de fin d’année avec le Ministre de la Défense nationale, Harjit Sajjan

    Par Nicolas Laffont À l'occasion de la fin d'année et peu après le Discours du Trône, 45eNord.ca a discuté de l'année écoulée et de ses futures priorités avec le ministre de la Défense nationale, Harjit Sajjan. Processus d'acquisition D'entrée de jeu le ministre Sajjan se dit satisfait cette année des avancées faites dans le domaine de l'approvisionnement. «Nous avons des projets comme celui des navires de combat de surface qui avance très bien, mais on a également le processus en lui-même qui est plus rapide. Le projet des véhicules de soutien devait prendre cinq ans, mais nous avons été en mesure d'annoncer l'attribution d'un contrat cet été». La livraison des premiers véhicules doit intervenir aussi tôt que fin 2020. «Nous avons aussi le nouvel avion de recherche et sauvetage qui s'en vient [le CC-295 d'Airbus], c'est une autre étape importante pour les Forces armées canadiennes». Inconduites et extrémisme Reconnaissant clairement qu'il y a «encore du travail à faire», le ministre de la Défense fait savoir que dès qu'un incident se produit, «il est pris très au sérieux. Les Canadiens doivent comprendre que notre organisation est «focusé» à répondre vigoureusement à ce genre de situation». «Le travail est en cours et pendant que nous faisons tout notre possible pour créer un environnement de travail plus inclusif, nous voulons aussi nous assurer que notre réponse soit toujours en phase avec la situation». Réserve en force Le Canada sera de plus en plus fragile face aux changements climatiques. Déjà les effets s'en font sentir, avec une augmentation sensible d'évènements climatiques de grande ampleur. En raison de ces changements climatiques, les Forces armées canadiennes se déploient de plus en plus au pays, pour combattre les feux de forêts ou les inondations, «et cela ne fait qu'empirer». La présence de la Réserve et de ses réservistes sera donc plus forte à l'avenir, en raison évidemment du lien entre les unités et leur communauté. «À chaque fois que j'ai visité les troupes et que l'on parle de l'intégration des réservistes avec les forces régulières, les opérations LENTUS sortent du lot. Les réservistes amènent en plus leur propre expérience acquise dans le civil. Je me souviens d'un endroit où l'officier commandant connaissait très bien les lieux parce qu'il travaillait dans le coin et il a pu faire des évaluations rapides et efficaces au point où des vies ont clairement été sauvées.» Les Nations Unies oubliées ? En 2018-2019, le Canada a envoyé une force opérationnelle au Mali pour évacuer des blessés et aider le transport tactique et logistique de la mission des Nations Unies (MINUSMA). La mission s'est achevée à l'été 2019 et s'il se dit «très fier» du travail accompli par les hommes et femmes des Forces armées canadiennes dans la région, le ministre Sajjan reste prudent quand on lui parle de contributions supplémentaires (pourtant annoncées!). «Nous sommes en Ouganda quelques jours par mois pour fournir un transport aérien tactique aux Nations Unies. Mais nous devons prendre une décision avec en tête où nous pouvons avoir le meilleur impact», explique Harjit Sajjan. «Avant d'aller au Mali, nous nous sommes posés cette question de où avoir le meilleur impact. N'oublions pas que pour être efficace, il est important que les nations apportent des capacités de haute valeur, comme nos hélicoptères d'évacuation médicale». Le ministre révèle que des discussions sont en cours avec le Secrétaire général des Nations Unies afin de déterminer quelle pourrait être la prochaine contribution canadienne. «Le travail est en cours, et dès que nous en saurons plus, nous informerons les Canadiens. [...] Nous regardons quelles autres capacités nous pouvons fournir, surtout en lien avec l'Initiative Elsie afin d'avoir plus de femmes dans les opérations de paix, et aussi [en lien] avec les Principes de Vancouver initiés par le général Romeo Dallaire, sur la prévention du recrutement et de l'utilisation d'enfants soldats. L'OTAN, les nouveaux engagements L'analyse réalisée pour établir la nouvelle politique de Défense canadienne a permis d'établir les priorités et l'une d'elle était l'OTAN. Le Canada a donc annoncé de multiples opérations et déploiement sous l'égide de l'alliance transatlantique. Dans cette perspective, la nouvelle lettre de mandat du premier ministre au ministre de la Défense cite l'opération IMPACT au Moyen-Orient, la présence avancée renforcée de l'OTAN en Lettonie, et la mission de l'OTAN en Irak. Et, toujours dans le même esprit, le Canada a annoncé le 4 décembre qu'il augmentait son engagement dans le cadre de l'initiative de préparation de l'OTAN en fournissant 6 avions de chasse additionnels et une frégate de plus, à la demande du Secrétaire général. Par conséquent, la contribution canadienne pourra s'élever au total, si besoin, à 12 avions de chasse CF-18, une force opérationnelle expéditionnaire aérienne, un avion de patrouille maritime, trois frégates, un sous-marin, un bataillon d'infanterie mécanisée, un hôpital mobile et un peloton spécialisé en décontamination chimique, biologique, radiologique et nucléaire. Par ailleurs, on apprenait cette semaine que le ministre de la Défense Harjit S. Sajjan, accompagné de deux parlementaires de l'opposition, se rendra en Italie et au Koweït, du 15 au 19 décembre 2019, pour assister à la cérémonie de passation de commandement du 2e Groupe maritime permanent de l'OTAN, dont le Canada assure le commandement, et pour rendre visite aux membres des Forces armées canadiennes en déploiement. Plus de contributions ? Plus d'argent ? Revenant sur le fait que le Président américain Donald Trump demande, dès que l'occasion se présente, à ses alliés d'augmenter drastiquement leurs dépenses en matière de Défense, le ministre Sajjan rappelle qu'en réalité la précédente administration demandait déjà cela. «En fait, c'est ce que la précédente administration demandait déjà lorsque j'ai effectué ma première visite en tant que ministre de la Défense lorsque le président Obama était là. C'est d'ailleurs pour cette raison que nous avons réalisé une étude approfondie pour étonner même quelque peu nos alliés avec notre plan, cette première politique de Défense qui avait enfin de l'argent attaché avec elle». Même si le président Trump répète à outrance que le Canada est «un peu délinquant» en ne respectant pas sa promesse d'atteindre les 2% de son PIB consacré à la Défense, il est clair pour nos voisins du sud que l'argent ne fait pas tout. «Nous n'avons même pas à leur dire, ce que nous apportons concrètement comme contributions», indique M. Sajjan. «Ils le savent déjà, parce qu'on le fait avec eux. Comme par exemple commander le groupement tactique en Lettonie ou la mission de l'OTAN en Irak. Et n'oublions pas non plus nos contributions en dehors de l'OTAN comme l'Opération NEON où nous aidons au renforcement des sanctions contre la Corée du Nord, avec l'aide des États-Unis. Ils savent aussi la contribution que nous apportons avec l'Opération CARIBBE, cette opération d'interdiction de drogues avec la Garde côtière américaine. Je sais que c'est quelque chose qui est immensément apprécié vu tout ce que est saisi et qui aurait fini aux États-Unis». Finalement, le ministre Sajjan rappelle de nouveau que même si les chiffres ne font pas tout, ils y sont cependant. La nouvelle politique de Défense promet ainsi une augmentation de 70% d'ici 20 ans du budget de la Défense nationale, et ce, sans inclure le coût des opérations qui vient en plus. «La politique de Défense porte strictement sur les politiques et l'approvisionnement dont ont besoin les Forces armées canadiennes. Les opérations ne font pas parties de la politique de Défense et sont une dépense séparée, en plus de ce que nous avons déjà promis». Une chose est sûre cependant, «le seul focus qui est et ne changera jamais pour moi est l'emphase à mettre sur nos hommes et nos femmes en uniforme. Les soutenir eux et leurs familles», de conclure le ministre de la Défense. http://www.45enord.ca/2019/12/interview-fin-annee-ministre-defense-nationale-harjit-sajjan/

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