2 novembre 2020 | Local, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

‘There could be turmoil’: How Canada is bracing for the U.S. election

By Mercedes Stephenson & Marc-André Cossette Global News

With the U.S. presidential election just days away, the Canadian government is steeling itself for the weeks of uncertainty that could ensue if the result is unclear or contested.

In the corridors of power in Ottawa, planning for this election started early, according to a senior government official who requested anonymity.

Those preparations have been intense, generating a flurry of briefings and threat assessments, as Canada braces for all scenarios.

Much hinges on how U.S. President Donald Trump will react on Election Night and the weeks that follow.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has shattered expectations of normal political behaviour.

He now appears willing to defy one of the most basic of democratic norms, having refused to say unequivocally whether he'll accept the results of the election if he loses.

John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, warns the president won't leave graciously if defeated.

“There could be turmoil,” Bolton said. “If he thinks confusion and chaos can help him hang on, can help affect recounts and contests, I think there's every prospect he'll engage in it.”

U.S. election highlighting need for ‘unified' response

In the aftermath of the election, multiple sources told Global News that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team will lean heavily on Canada's embassy in Washington and especially on Ambassador Kirsten Hillman.

Her predecessor, David MacNaughton, said Hillman has likely been in near-daily communication with the Prime Minister's Office, funnelling information that she has gleaned from her contacts in the White House, Congress, the U.S. State Department and American security agencies.

Back in Ottawa, the prime minister will want premiers and opposition parties on side too, MacNaughton said.

“When we're dealing with something as important as our relationship with the United States, we need to be unified,” he said, citing the non-partisan Team Canada approach that was taken when renegotiating NAFTA.

“That's what's going to be necessary, regardless of what happens with the outcome of this election.”

But so long as there's any doubt about the result, the prime minister would be wise to keep his powder dry, said Roland Paris, Trudeau's former foreign policy and defence adviser.

“Canadian prime ministers rarely have anything to gain by involving themselves in U.S. domestic politics, and they often have quite a bit to lose,” he said.

Aside from reaffirming Canada's confidence in the U.S. electoral process, the federal government will do all it can to avoid being drawn into the political firestorm raging south of the border.

Preparing for civil unrest and the ‘nightmare scenario'

Still, multiple sources said Canada can't ignore the possibility of civil unrest and violence in the United States.

For 10 years, Ward Elcock served as Canada's top spy, leading the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS).

He said there's no question that Trump's heated rhetoric has fuelled the resurgence of far-right extremism in the United States: a phenomenon that poses a serious threat as Americans decide who should lead their country for the next four years.

“There may well be some people who do weird things in the aftermath of the election, particularly if — as seems likely at this point — Mr. Trump loses and loses badly,” Elcock said.

“There may be some of his supporters who do get pushed into violent scenarios that are hard for us to imagine.”

Just one month ahead of the election, a report by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security called white supremacists “the most persistent and lethal threat” in the country.

That threat is on Canada's radar too, according to Thomas Juneau, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and a former analyst with the Department of National Defence.

“One scenario that is always a nightmare scenario for Canada is the issue of security threats coming from Canada, crossing the Canadian-American border and reaching the U.S.,” he said.

“The fear on our side is always that the response on the American side will be to close the border, which economically would be devastating for us.”

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a senior national security source told Global News the federal government is quietly assessing the risk that election-related violence in the United States could spill over into Canada.

As a result, Canadian intelligence agencies will closely monitor potential flashpoints. Those include border states like Michigan, where the FBI recently foiled a militia plot to kidnap the state's governor, and Washington, where waves of anti-racism protests may have attracted more far-right extremists.

‘Not our first rodeo' managing U.S. disruption: experts

Despite the uncertainty swirling around the election, experts agree that ties between the Canadian and American defence and intelligence communities likely won't be affected.

“The underlying relationship is very strong,” Elcock said, describing it as one of interdependence.

“We may be a smaller partner, but we're not necessarily just a bit player,” he said.

And what if Trump were to issue wild orders in the post-election chaos — demanding, for example, that U.S. agencies cease all intelligence-sharing with allies?

Several intelligence sources said the U.S. defence and security apparatus likely won't take orders that it considers illegitimate.

“The United States is not disintegrating,” Elcock said.

“It may need a period of rest and rejuvenation after Mr. Trump passes from the scene, as inevitably he will at some point. But the reality is most of those organizations are still there and they're still capable.”

In other words, Trump may be disruptive, but the U.S. military and intelligence community is still run by professionals who won't toe the president's line if he goes rogue.

No matter what happens on Nov. 3, the overwhelming consensus appears to be that Americans will find a way to endure.

“This is not our first rodeo,” Bolton said.

“We've had bitterly contested elections before and we've gotten through it — and we'll get through this one, too.”

See this and other original stories about our world on The New Reality airing Saturday nights on Global TV, and online.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7432158/us-election-canada-preparations/

Sur le même sujet

  • Tens of millions paid out due to bungled Canadian Forces procurement, but government says details are secret

    21 janvier 2019 | Local, Terrestre

    Tens of millions paid out due to bungled Canadian Forces procurement, but government says details are secret

    DAVID PUGLIESE, OTTAWA CITIZEN The case dates back to 2016 when the Canadian International Trade Tribunal ruled that the process which awarded a truck contact to Mack Defense of the U.S. was flawed Taxpayers are on the hook for potentially tens of millions of dollars after federal bureaucrats bungled the purchase of trucks for the Canadian Forces and now must make good on the lost profits for a U.S. firm. But Public Services and Procurement Canada, which oversaw the flawed defence procurement, has declined to provide details on just how much the penalties will cost the public. Defence industry representatives, however, say the penalty being paid to the U.S. company, Oshkosh, could be as high as $60 million as it has to account for lost profit on the $834-million contract as well as other expenses the firm incurred. The case dates back to 2016 when the Canadian International Trade Tribunal (CITT) ruled that the process, which awarded the truck contact to Mack Defense of the U.S., was flawed. The CITT supported the concerns of Mack's rival, Oshkosh, that there were significant issues with the evaluation of the vehicles. As a result, the tribunal called on Public Services and Procurement Canada to conduct a new evaluation of the trucks being purchased for the Canadian Forces. The CITT recommended that Oshkosh be compensated for its lost opportunity to profit But instead, the department continued with the process to buy the Mack trucks and went to federal court in 2017 to challenge the tribunal's ruling. It recently abandoned that appeal. It was revealed by the tribunal that Public Services and Procurement Canada had failed to keep many key records to support its claim that the Mack trucks met the requirements for the Canadian military. “The CITT recommended that Oshkosh be compensated for its lost opportunity to profit,” the department noted in a response to Postmedia about the settlement it reached with the firm. The department, however, declined to provide details, claiming that the payout is confidential. It did not explain why the penalties that taxpayers must shoulder should be considered secret. “This matter is now closed,” according to the department's statement. The Conservative government announced in 2015 that Mack Defense had won the $834-million contract to provide the 1,500 standard military pattern trucks as well as in-service support for the vehicles. “Truck deliveries are ongoing and expected to be completed during spring 2020,” Public Services and Procurement Canada noted. It stated that the Mack trucks meet the required standards. Oshkosh said in a statement to Postmedia that it was pleased with the financial settlement that resulted from its challenge heard by the trade tribunal. “Oshkosh cannot comment further on the details of this confidential settlement,” noted Alexandra Hittle of Oshkosh Defense. The program to purchase the trucks was originally announced in 2006 by the Conservatives but the acquisition was dogged by problems. The vehicles were supposed to be delivered in 2008 and the project was considered a priority because the vehicles they were to replace had become a safety hazard, with faulty brakes and excessive rust. But in 2012 the Conservative government temporarily shut down the project after learning that the Department of National Defence increased the cost of the project by $300 million but hadn't received permission from government to do that. The government had approved an original budget of $430 million but department and military officials began adding more capabilities to what they wanted in the vehicles, bumping the estimated cost up. DND officials continued on with the acquisition without going back to Treasury Board for approval for the extra money, angering the Conservative government. Delivery of the Mack trucks began last year and have continued to various bases throughout Canada. Earlier this month Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan highlighted the delivery of some of the trucks to a base in Quebec, noting that, “through our defence policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged, we are providing the women and men of our Canadian Armed Forces with the equipment they need to do their jobs.” Sajjan did not mention that the trucks were ordered under the Conservative government. dpugliese@postmedia.com https://ottawacitizen.com/news/canada/tens-of-millions-paid-out-due-to-bungled-canadian-forces-procurement-but-government-says-details-are-secret

  • AÉRO MONTRÉAL EST À LA RECHERCHE D'UN(E) GESTIONNAIRE DE PROJETS, CYBERSÉCURITÉ

    8 avril 2022 | Local, C4ISR, Sécurité

    AÉRO MONTRÉAL EST À LA RECHERCHE D'UN(E) GESTIONNAIRE DE PROJETS, CYBERSÉCURITÉ

    AÉRO MONTRÉAL EST À LA RECHERCHE D'UN(E) GESTIONNAIRE DE PROJETS, CYBERSÉCURITÉ

  • GA-ASI and Team SkyGuardian Canada Looking to Grow

    7 juin 2019 | Local, Aérospatial

    GA-ASI and Team SkyGuardian Canada Looking to Grow

    Team SkyGuardian Wants More Canadian Companies to Join the Team OTTAWA, Ontario — General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI), CAE Canada, MDA, and L3 WESCAM are expanding Team SkyGuardian to include even more Canadian companies. Team SkyGuardian Canada (TSC) is a coalition of companies who support the MQ-9B SkyGuardian to fulfill Canada's Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) requirements. Team SkyGuardian presents Canadian industry with business opportunities in the Canadian RPAS Project and across the global fleet of more than 400 MQ-9 aircraft flying throughout the world. To facilitate the Team's growth, GA-ASI and Team SkyGuardian will engage industry across all regions of Canada through industry events. The goal of the events will be to hold business-to-business meetings where companies can brief their core capabilities and move toward meaningful opportunities for collaboration. “We look forward to integrating the capabilities of the Canadian aerospace and defense industry to deliver the best solution to the Canadian Armed Forces,” said David R. Alexander, president, Aircraft Systems, GA-ASI. “With a cutting-edge program like the Canadian RPAS Project, Team SkyGuardian wants to leverage the innovation centers and businesses that can push the boundaries of the technology.” While current Team SkyGuardian members represent the larger defense and aerospace companies in Canada, the upcoming industry engagements will emphasize small and medium-sized companies. Announcements for industry engagements and events will be posted on the Team SkyGuardian website: teamskyguardiancanada.com. Hi-resolution images of MQ-9B SkyGuardian are available to qualified media outlets from the listed GA-ASI media contact.About GA-ASI General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI), an affiliate of General Atomics, is a leading designer and manufacturer of proven, reliable Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) systems, radars, and electro-optic and related mission systems, including the Predator® RPA series and the Lynx® Multi-mode Radar. With more than five million flight hours, GA-ASI provides long-endurance, mission-capable aircraft with integrated sensor and data link systems required to deliver persistent flight that enables situational awareness and rapid strike. The company also produces a variety of ground control stations and sensor control/image analysis software, offers pilot training and support services, and develops meta-material antennas. For more information, visit www.ga-asi.com. Predator and Lynx are registered trademarks of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/press-releases-pmn/business-wire-news-releases-pmn/ga-asi-and-team-skyguardian-canada-looking-to-grow

Toutes les nouvelles