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  27 mai 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

  Opinion: Defense Is Unscathed By COVID-19? Think Again.

  John Dowdy May 22, 2020 The rapid onset of the novel coronavirus has wreaked havoc on markets around the world, hitting commercial aviation especially hard as load factors plummet, flights are canceled and suppliers cut production rates and furlough workers. Amid all this disruption, defense manufacturers appear to have been relatively unscathed. But defense has always been a long-cycle business, driven more by annual budgets than daily load factors. And as the bill for rebuilding the global economy mounts, defense budgets are sure to come under pressure. COVID-19 is first and foremost a human tragedy, and its continued spread is still a major concern. But we must solve for both the virus and the economy; the dual imperative of our time is the desire to preserve lives and livelihoods. Both will require substantial resources for public health and for economic rejuvenation. Countries around the world are making massive investments to rebuild battered economies, putting out more than $11 trillion in the last 2.5 months, with more sure to follow. In the U.S., Congress passed the $2.2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act at the end of March, bringing the total stimulus thus far to $3 trillion, which could push the fiscal 2020 budget deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, an eye-watering 18.7% of the country's GDP. Other countries have passed similar aid packages, leading to soaring debt levels around the world. And more may well be necessary: The House has passed proposals for another $3 trillion in aid, although the bill's fate in the Senate is unclear. Government debt levels are already high, swelling as the global financial crisis of 2008 caused a drop in tax revenues and a rise in social-safety-net payments. And the wave of deleveraging many expected as the recession eased never materialized: From 2008 to mid-2017, global government debt more than doubled, reaching $60 trillion. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this year's increase in public-sector debt has reached 122.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) on average in developed countries. Increased deficits worldwide are likely to put pressure on all discretionary spend, including defense. In the U.S., military spending accounts for 15% of all federal and roughly half of discretionary spending, so defense may come under real pressure. Rep. Ken Calvert of California, the ranking Republican on the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, says defense budgets were strained even before this year's unplanned burst of deficit spending. “There's no question that budgetary pressure will only increase now for all segments of our federal budget, including defense,” Calvert said. Defense Secretary Mark Esper has said he is preparing for future defense budget cuts and that legacy systems may need to be scrapped to pay for more modern forces. South Korea shows early signs of this trend, with leaders recently announcing a shift in resources to disaster relief in response to the pandemic. Money came from education, agriculture, and environmental protection but mostly from defense. This example is particularly significant, given that South Korea is still technically at war, frozen in conflict with its immediate neighbor to the north. Furthermore, South Korea has been more effective than its peers in addressing the pandemic with a swift medical response and widespread testing that allowed the country to reopen its economy faster than other advanced countries. If South Korea is altering its budgetary priorities, others could follow. The coronavirus has already had a massive human cost, resulting in approximately 300,000 deaths, including more than 90,000 Americans, more than were killed in Vietnam, the Gulf War, Iraq and Afghanistan combined. But the financial cost has been even greater. The cost in the US has already exceeded that of all the wars the U.S. has fought over the last 50 years. And if an additional $3 trillion is approved by Congress, the cost will surpass that of World War II. At this point, it is too early to predict how much the defense budget will draw down how quickly. Indeed, the shift might not occur immediately. Broadly speaking, two factors have historically had the most influence on defense spending: threats and affordability. Governments will all calibrate the relative importance of the threats they face against their new economic realities. In keeping with past patterns, countries may give most weight to threats, real or perceived, over the near term. If there are anticipated or ongoing conflicts, their defense budgets will probably increase. Over the longer term, however, economic factors tend to prevail, and governments may set defense budgets in line with their diminished resources. Either way, we face some tough decisions ahead. https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/opinion-defense-unscathed-covid-19-think-again

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  20 avril 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR

  Four technologies Japan and the US should team on to counter China

  Aaron Mehta WASHINGTON — The U.S. and Japan need to expand their collaboration on defense technologies in the future, with a specific focus on four technologies that can help counter the rise of China, according to a new report released Friday by the Atlantic Council. The report also highlights the ongoing discussions about U.S. involvement in Japan's next domestic fighter program as a high-stakes situation that could dictate industrial cooperation between the two nations for years. “The most important component of cooperation on defense capabilities is direct coordination and collaboration on emerging technologies and capabilities,” write authors Tate Nurkin and Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, identifying unmanned systems, hypersonic/hyper-velocity missiles, and the defense applications of AI as three key areas where the U.S. and Japan need to start working together on. “These three areas are at the center of the intensifying U.S.-China military-technological competition. They are key to challenging or upholding military balances and stabilizing imbalances in and across key domain-area competitions — strike versus air and missile defense or undersea — on which regional and, over time, global security is at least partly based,” the authors note. Specifically, the authors identify four project areas that both fit into U.S. strategy and Japan's regional interests, while also matching industrial capabilities: Swarming technology and the loyal wingman: For several years the Pentagon has been investing R&D funding into the development of drones that can be slaved to a fighter jet, providing a “loyal wingman” controlled by the one pilot. Drone swarms are another area of heavy investment. Both concepts fit for Japan, whose Ministry of Defense expressed interest in both concepts going back as far as 2016. Unmanned underwater vehicles and anti-submarine warfare capabilities: China has invested heavily in submarines over the last decade, both manned and unmanned. The U.S. has also begun investing in UUV capabilities, but while Japan's IHI has developed a domestic UUV, the MoD has yet to go all in on the capability. The authors note it is a logical area of collaboration. AI-enabled synthetic training environments: The U.S. and Japan ran a joint synthetic training exercise in 2016, but the authors would like to see development expanded in the future. “Given both countries' need to accelerate training, their shared competency in machine learning and virtual and augmented reality, and a highly fractured simulation and training market, there is potential for a collaborative program to develop a synthetic simulation and training capability, to stress the specific operational contingencies to which US and Japanese forces will have to respond,” they write. Counter-unmanned systems: The entire world seems to be investing in weapons to counter unmanned systems, but the authors see a solid spot for the two nations to find workable technologies together. Japan's acquisition group is currently testing a “high-power microwave generation system” for this mission. That all sounds good on paper, the authors acknowledge, but there are very real challenges to increasing technology development between the two countries. Japan's modernization priorities are best viewed through a defensive lens, designed to protect the island nation. That's a contrast to America's posture in the region, which tends more towards force projection. In addition, Japan lags in military space and cyber operations compared to the U.S., making cross-domain collaboration challenging in several areas. Those negotiations have also been impacted by “different perceptions of the nature of joint technology research,” the authors write. “U.S. defense officials have ‘emphasized operational concepts and capability requirements as the basis for collaboration,' while Japanese officials have ‘continued to focus on technology development and industrial base interests.'” Other challenges include Japan's 1 percent-of-GDP cap on defense spending, as well as the state of Japan's defense industry, which until 2014 was focused entirely on serving the Japanese government's needs. Hence, the industry, while technically very competent, is also relatively small, with limited export experiences – and Tokyo has an interest in protecting that industry with favorable contracts. Meanwhile, U.S. firms have concerns about “potentially losing revenue, transfer of sensitive technologies, and the potential replacement of US companies with Japanese ones in critical supply chains,” the authors write. Some of those issues have come to the forefront in the ongoing discussions about what role American firms can play in Japan's ongoing fighter development program. Japan recently rejected an offer by Lockheed Martin of a hybrid F-22/F-35 design, stating that “developing derivatives of existing fighters cannot be a candidate from the perspective of a Japan-led development.” Getting the F-3 deal right will have long term implications for how the two nations develop capabilities together, the authors warn, quoting defense analyst Gregg Rubinstein in saying “Successfully defining a path to U.S.-Japanese collaboration on this program could make the F-3 an alliance-building centerpiece of cooperative defense acquisition” while failure to do so could “undermine prospects for future collaboration in defense capabilities development.” Putting aside the internal issues, any collaboration between the U.S. and Japan has to be considered through the lens it will be see in Beijing and, to a lesser extent, Seoul. “Even marginal differences in perception produce limits to the parameters of U.S.-Japan joint development of, and coordination on, military capabilities. Especially provocative programs like joint hypersonic-missile development will be viewed as escalatory, and will likely generate a response from China,Russia, and/or North Korea that could complicate other trade or geopolitical interests that go beyond Northeast Asia,” the authors warn, noting that China could attempt to exert more pressure on the ASEAN nations as a counterweight. Additionally, South Korea would likely “see substantial U.S.-Japan collaboration not through an adversarial lens, but certainly through the lens of strained relations stemming from both historical and contextual issues, further complicating U.S.-Japan-Republic of Korea trilateral cooperation.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/04/16/four-technologies-japan-and-the-us-should-team-on-to-counter-china/

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  16 janvier 2019 | International, Naval, C4ISR

  BAE signs $79.8M contract with Navy for Pacific comms support

  Jan. 15 (UPI) -- BAE Systems has signed a five-year, $79.8 million contract to assist the U.S. Navy in maintaining and operating electronic, communication and computing platforms across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The program, which supports the Pacific's Naval Computer and Telecommunications Area Master, will continue to provide continuous operations and maintenance support for afloat and ashore operations, the company said in a press release Tuesday. Full artcile: https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/01/15/BAE-signs-798M-contract-with-Navy-for-Pacific-comms-support/1401547573414/