With defense budgets expected to be coming in flat under even best-case scenarios, the time for tough decisions might be coming.
By PAUL MCLEARY
WASHINGTON: The Pentagon may slash older weapons programs to buy new ones in coming years if the federal government's COVID-19 response takes a big bite out of budgets, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said today.
Before the global pandemic slammed American society and ground the economy to a halt, Pentagon leaders were already looking at flat defense budgets and were casting about for fat to trim. But the trillions Congress and the Trump administration has pumped into the economy, which falls on top of an already exploding budget deficit, could make predictions of flat budgets look optimistic.
Esper told reporters at the Pentagon he would target older programs: “We need to move away from the legacy, and we need to invest those dollars in the future. And we have a lot of legacy programs out there right now — I could pick dozens out from all branches of the services” that could be cut or curtailed.
As Army Secretary in 2018, Esper's “Night Courts” saved the service some $33 billion through scrapping oler programs with an eye to pumping cash into new weapons programs. The Navy is undergoing a review that aims to shave $40 billion in the coming years, and the Marine Corps is aggressively getting rid of troops, tanks, helicopters, and — possibly — trimming the F-35 to make room for modernization investments.
In particular, the massive modernization of the nuclear delivery systems will not be touched. Esper said “we're not going to risk the strategic deterrent we need to modernize,” if budgets trend downward, but acknowledged that cutting old weapons systems before their replacements were ready “would mean probably accepting some near term risk, but I think [modernizing is] important given the trajectory that China is on, and we know where Russia may be going in the coming year.”
Earlier this week, Esper said he was concerned that exploding budget deficits would put an end to the dream of 3% to 5% yearly defense budget growth, which he had targeted for Pentagon modernization.
“There is a concern there that that may lead to smaller defense budgets in the future at the critical time we need to continue making this adjustment, where we look at China, then Russia, as our long-term strategic competitors,” he said at the Brookings Institute.
Some lawmakers are bracing for the coming cuts. “I am extremely concerned about that,” House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Mike Gallagher told me recently. “I think it is going to require defense hawks, like myself, to make not only more energetic arguments, but new and creative geopolitical arguments,” to advocate for spending on modernization programs. “If you assume downward pressure on the defense budget, it means that DoD will need to get the most out of every dollar spent.”
Those arguments will be critically important for the services as they pitch their latest modernization efforts.
“I think the budget comes down sooner rather than later,” Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said during a recent webinar
Adding fuel to that view was Todd Harrison, DoD budget expert at the Center for Strategic and International Security, who added, “what has historically happened is, when Congress's fiscal conservatives come out and get serious about reducing the debt, reducing spending on defense is almost always part of what they come up with for a solution,” he said. “So, we could be looking at a deficit-driven defense drawdown coming.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/old-weapons-under-fire-as-covid-debt-rises/
