26 septembre 2019 | International, C4ISR

No AI For Nuclear Command & Control: JAIC’s Shanahan

By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.

GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: “You will find no stronger proponent of integration of AI capabilities writ large into the Department of Defense,” Lt. Gen. Jack Shanahan said here, “but there is one area where I pause, and it has to do with nuclear command and control.”

In movies like WarGames and Terminator, nuclear launch controls are the first thing fictional generals hand over to AI. In real life, the director of the Pentagon's Joint Artificial Intelligence Center says, that's the last thing he would integrate AI with. The military is beginning a massive multi-billion dollar modernization of its aging system for Nuclear Command, Control, & Communications (NC3), much of which dates to the Cold War. But the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center is not involved with it.

A recent article on the iconoclastic website War on the Rocks argued “America Needs A ‘Dead Hand',” a reference to the Soviet system designed to automatically order a nuclear launch if the human leadership was wiped out. “I read that,” Shanahan told the Kalaris Intelligence Conference here this afternoon. “My immediate answer is ‘No. We do not.'”

Instead, the JAIC is very deliberately starting with relatively low-risk, non-lethal projects — predicting breakdowns in helicopter engines and mapping natural disasters — before moving on to combat-related functions such as intelligence analysis and targeting next year. On the Pentagon's timeline, AI will be coming to command posts before it is embedded in actual weapons, and even then the final decision to use lethal force will always remain in human hands.

The standard term in the Pentagon now for human involvement with AI and weapons now is “human on the loop,” a shift from human IN the loop. That reflects greater stress on the advisory function of humans with AI and a recognition that domains like cyber require almost instantaneous responses that can't wait for a human.

Hawkish skeptics say slowing down to ask human permission could cripple US robots against their less-restrained Russian or Chinese counterparts. Dovish skeptics say this kind of human control would be too easily bypassed.

Shanahan does see a role for AI in applying lethal force once that human decision is made. “I'm not going to go straight to ‘lethal autonomous weapons systems,'” he said, “but I do want to say we will use artificial intelligence in our weapons systems... to give us a competitive advantage. It's to save lives and help deter war from happening in the first place.”

The term “lethal autonomous weapons systems” was popularized by the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, which seeks a global ban on all AI weapons. Shanahan made clear his discomfort with formal arms control measures, as opposed to policies and international norms, which don't bind the US in the same way.

“I'll be honest with you,” Shanahan said. “I don't like the term, and I do not use the term, ‘arms control' when it comes to AI. I think that's unhelpful when it comes to artificial intelligence: It's largely a commercial technology,” albeit with military applications.

“I'm much more interested, at least as a starting point, in international rules and norms and behavior,” he continued. (Aside from the space is governed almost exclusively “It's extremely important to have those discussions.”

“This is the ultimate human decision that needs to be made....nuclear command and control,” he said. “We have to be very careful. Knowing ...the immaturity of technology today, give us a lot of time to test and evaluate.”

“Can we use artificial intelligence to make better decisions, to make more informed judgments about what might be happening, to reduce the potential for civilian casualties or collateral damage?” Shanahan said. “I'm an optimist. I believe you can. It will not eliminate it, never. It's war; bad things are going to happen.”

While Shanahan has no illusions about AI enabling some kind of cleanly surgical future conflict, he doesn't expect a robo-dystopia, either.

“The hype is a little dangerous, because it's uninformed most of the time, and sometimes it's a Hollywood-driven killer robots/Terminator/SkyNet worst case scenario,” he said. “I don't see that worst case scenario any time in my immediate future.”

“I'm very comfortable saying our approach — even though it is emerging technology, even though it unfolds very quickly before our eyes — it will still be done in a deliberate and rigorous way so we know what we get when we field it,” Shanahan said.

“As the JAIC director, I'm focused on really getting to the fielding,” he said, moving AI out of the lab into the real world — but one step at a time. “We're always going to start with limited narrow use cases. Say, can we take some AI capability and put it in a small quadcopter drone that will make it easier to clear out a cave, [and] really prove that it works before we ever get it to a [large] scale production.”

“We will have a very clear understanding of what it can do and what it can't do,” he said. “That will be through experimentation, that will be through modeling and simulation, and that will be in wargames. We've done that with every piece of technology we've ever used, and I don't expect this to be any different.”

The JAIC is even looking to hire an in-house ethicist of sorts, a position Shanahan has mentioned earlier but sought to clarify today. “It'll be someone who's a technical standards [expert] / ethicist,” he said. “As we develop the models and algorithms... they can look at that make sure the process is abiding by our rules of the road.”

“I'm also interested in, down the road, getting some help from the outside on sort of those deeper philosophical questions,” he continued. “I don't focus on them day to day, because of my charter to field now, but it's clear we have to be careful about this.”

“I do not see that same approach in Russia or China,” Shanahan said. “What sets us apart is... our focus on real rigor in test and evaluation, validation and verification, before we field capability that could have lives at stake.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2019/09/no-ai-for-nuclear-command-control-jaics-shanahan

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    20 juin 2019 | International, Aérospatial

    Pentagon, Lockheed Martin Failed to Ensure Proper Parts for F-35

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  • MPF Light Tank Profits Estimated ~$495M: Byron Callan

    24 décembre 2018 | International, Terrestre

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  • Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - May 15, 2020

    19 mai 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

    Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - May 15, 2020

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AIR FORCE J Davis Construction Management Inc., Oxnard, California (FA8003-20-D-0008); Bishop Inc.,* Orange, California (FA8003-20-D-0009); SMNC Properties LLC, Saint Mary's, Alaska (FA8003-20-D-0011); BC Schmidt Construction Inc.,* Colusa, California (FA8003-20-D-0016); Pacific Federal-Pacific Tech JV 2, Longview, Washington (FA8003-20-D-0010); MIWOK Construction LLC, Las Vegas, Nevada (FA8003-20-D-0012); ENH LLC, Garden Grove, California (FA8003-20-D-0013); Heffler Contracting Group, El Cajon, California (FA8003-20-D-0014); Aleut Field Services LLC, Fairbanks, Alaska (FA8003-20-D-0015); Chatmon-VJR JV LLC, La Place, Louisiana (FA8003-20-D-0017); Good-Men Roofing and Construction Inc.,* San Diego, California (FA8003-20-D-0018); Prairie Band Construction Inc., Mayetta, Kansas (FA8003-20-D-0020); DKJR Roofing LLC,* Le Mars, Iowa (FA8003-20-D-0021); A-Vet Roofing & Construction LLC, Warner Robins, Georgia (FA8003-20-D-0019); PMR Services LLC, Watford City, North Dakota (FA8003-20-D-0022); RSSI Roofing Co.,* Essex, Maryland (FA8003-20-D-0028); Doliveira DJB JV LLC, Annapolis, Maryland (FA8003-20-D-0029); Kunj Construction Corp., Northvale, New Jersey (FA8003-20-D-0030); D.A. 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Replacement equipment and systems includes replacement of three rooftop air handling units and associated distribution ductwork, three central exhaust systems, local exhaust systems, remote variable air volume (VAV) supply terminals with hot water reheat and associated air volume tracking exhaust VAV terminals, steam humidifiers, steam generator for humidification, direct digital controls and other miscellaneous items. A new water treatment plant shall be provided to treat water for building humidification. Support from other construction trades is required to perform the HVAC system replacement. Roof structure and closure shall be modified, fire-rated partitions and penetrations shall be provided and electrical power and grounding shall be provided along with other miscellaneous work. Work is expected to be complete by January 2022. Fiscal 2020 Navy working capital contract funds in the amount of $7,624,432 are obligated on this award and will expire at the end of fiscal year 2022. Four proposals were received for this task order. The Naval Facilities Engineering Command Washington, D.C., is the contracting activity (N40080-19-D-0001). ARMY Palomar Display Products,* Carlsbad, California, was awarded an $89,237,780 firm-fixed-price contract for biocular image control units, assorted spares and engineering services and repairs. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of May 14, 2027. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, is the contracting activity (W909MY-20-D-0006). The Boeing Co., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, was awarded a $28,000,000 firm-fixed-price contract for advanced procurement of long lead helicopter parts. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. Work will be performed in Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, with an estimated completion date of June 30, 2022. Fiscal 2020 aircraft procurement (Army) funds in the amount of $28,000,000 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is the contracting activity (W58RGZ-20-F-0380). Greenland Enterprises Inc., Hampton, Virginia, was awarded a $19,635,242 firm-fixed-price contract to repair a hot water line. Bids were solicited via the internet with two received. Work will be performed at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, with an estimated completion date of Jan. 15, 2022. Fiscal 2020 military construction funds in the amount of $19,635,242 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Louisville, Kentucky is the contracting activity (W912QR-20-C-0008). CORRECTION: The contract announced on April 30, 2020, to L3 Technologies Inc., Londonderry, New Hampshire (W56HZV-20-F-0308), for illuminator infrared parts, is actually being awarded today. The award is for $7,450,000, not $17,135,000 as previously announced. DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY Applied Physical Sciences Corp., Groton, Connecticut, has been awarded an $18,822,358 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the base period of a research and development effort for undersea sensing systems. Work will be performed in Groton, Connecticut (60%); Woburn, Massachusetts (20%); Arlington, Virginia (7%); Pawcatuck, Connecticut (4%); Northridge, California (3%); Waltham, Massachusetts (3%); Orange, California (2%); and Concord, Massachusetts (1%), with an estimated completion date of October 2021. Fiscal 2020 research and development funds in the amount of $15,062,029 are being obligated at the time of award. This contract is the result of a competitive acquisition in accordance with original broad agency announcement HR0011-17-S-0034. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Arlington, Virginia, is the contracting activity (HR0011-20-C-0100). *Small business https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2188998/source/GovDelivery/

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