16 mars 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité
Michael Bruno
The COVID-19 outbreak is the biggest punch to the gut commercial aviation has taken since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. And coming on the heels of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis, Airbus and Boeing widebody production rate cuts, U.S. trade wars and the flight-shaming movement in Europe, the coronavirus emergency is challenging the aerospace manufacturing sector and its global supply chain.
Is the historic upcycle of commercial aircraft orders over? Will orders be canceled and deferred? Will business aviation go out of favor? Only time will tell, but it has been interesting to hear what aerospace and defense (A&D) executives are worrying about.
First, lost revenue from disrupted operations in China is not among their worries. Practically no one in A&D manufacturing has revised their 2020 financial forecasts—provided in January or February—because of COVID-19 alone.
“To date, we have no reported cases of our employees having contracted the virus, and the direct impact to our trading activities has been minimal,” Senior Plc CEO David Squires said March 2.
Likewise, GE CEO Larry Culp did not change the company's financial outlook because COVID-19 was already cited in a forecast given last month. “In our view, in all likelihood it is going to be temporary, but it doesn't mean it is going to disappear tomorrow,” Culp said at a March 4 shareholder briefing.
To be sure, some OEMs and suppliers with Chinese operations had to shut down in recent weeks due to COVID-19. But those factories are back up, and the impact to revenue was limited. For instance, only 20 of Triumph Group's roughly 5,000 active suppliers are located in China or South Korea. All 20 remain operational, and no supply chain interruptions have occurred.
On the supply side, the glancing blow could have a lot to do with the fact that not much in Western aerospace is sourced in China. According to U.S. Commerce Department data, the U.S. imports just $1.1 billion annually in aircraft, spacecraft and related parts. What is more, that figure has been dropping since 2016—before the U.S.-China trade war—and was expected to fall off a cliff for 2019 and 2020 regardless of the “Phase One” trade deal truce.
China always was a twofold market for U.S. aerospace: Sell parts and services to existing Western-supplied fleets there, and partner for local production of nonproprietary parts and systems for emerging Chinese fleets. But China is ramping up efforts to get its own fleet into operation and is pairing with Russian suppliers more often. Any growth in overall aerospace trade likely would have to come from a jump in Chinese orders of Airbus or Boeing airliners, which was not widely expected in the wake of the Jan. 16 trade truce and is not anticipated now after the recent plummet in Chinese air traffic.
Although collapsing demand worldwide for air travel could have a devastating effect on A&D manufacturing and supply, executives do not consider it likely. COVID-19 quickly turned into a short, sharp shock to the system, but industry leaders see the same underlying macro conditions driving long-term growth. Chief among them: expanding middle classes worldwide that spend more discretionary funds traveling by air for leisure.
During the 2020 Aviation Summit in Washington, new Collins Aerospace President Stephen Timm was asked if the airliner-customer landscape could look a lot different in coming years due to the scare. “Frankly, we're going to see differences,” Timm said. “This will be a blip—a serious blip that we have to deal with today—but compared with the macro aerospace industry, we're in a really good place.”
Where do industry insiders see change coming to the supply chain? For one thing, COVID-19 could help deepen resistance to business travel, said some attending Aviation Week's Annual Aerospace Raw Materials and Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference on March 9-12. That would exacerbate the ongoing drop in demand for widebodies.
Still, the biggest change could come in accelerating a budding shift in A&D supply from globalization to regionalization. Executives and consultants at both the Wharton Aerospace Conference on Feb. 29 and Aviation Week's supply chain event discussed how COVID-19 cements a belief that just-in-time global supply chains are too risky and not worth the lower cost anymore.
Instead, they look to capitalize on aerospace manufacturing hubs in Asia, Europe-North Africa and North America to supply themselves. The trend could start with aerostructures for future single-aisle airliners, especially as composite materials are increasingly incorporated. “From a colocation strategy,” says one supplier executive, “you will see it in the next-gen airplanes.”
12 septembre 2022 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité
The Defense Innovation Unit is seeking commercial software to support new supply chain pathways and manage risk across the industrial base.
29 janvier 2024 | International, Naval
The contract, which has the total potential value of $913 million, includes engineering, design, material procurement and fabrication, documentation, resource forecasting and pre-overhaul inspections.
11 septembre 2018 | International, Aérospatial
By Kyle Mizokami The Air Force's fleet of Cold War bombers will fly longer than most people will live, allowing B-52 crews to work on planes their great-grandfathers flew. A series of upgrades to the B-52 Stratofortress bomber could keep the remaining fleet of Cold War bombers going until 2050. The planes, built during the Kennedy Administration, are expected to receive new engines, electronics, and bomb bay upgrades to keep them viable in nuclear and conventional roles. The B-52 strategic heavy bomber is a true survivor. It was designed to fly high over the Soviet Union carrying atomic bombs if necessary. But the B-52 is the do-it-all tool of strike warfare, taking on whatever mission is popular at the time. B-52s were modified to drop conventional bombs during the Vietnam War, where they proved they could fly low to penetrate enemy defenses, gained the ability to drop precision-guided bombs, and swapped their nuclear bomb loads for nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The B-52s also can carry Harpoon anti-ship missiles, lay minefields at sea, and provide close air support to troops on the ground. B-52s have even flirted with air-to-air warfare, with their tail gunners reportedly shooting down two MiG-21 fighters over Vietnam. Of the original 102 B-52Hs built between 1961 and 1962, 76 are still flying with the Air Force's Global Strike Command and Air Force reserve. B-52s regularly fly to Europe and Asia, and in early June, two B-52s stationed on the island of Guam flew to the South China Sea in protest of Chinese territorial claims. Now the U.S. Air Force is embarking on a series of major upgrades that could give the B-52 another 30 years of service. According to National Defense, a key improvement will be re-engining the big bomber. Each B-52 still operates eight original TF-33-103 engines. Not only are those engines generations behind the state of the art, but their age, and the difficulty to source spare parts, puts their future use in jeopardy—a problem Popular Mechanics covered last year. Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney, and GE Aviation have all expressed interest in the new B-52 engine, but only Pratt and Whitney has actually chosen a potential replacement: the PW815 engine used in the Gulfstream G500 passenger jet. The Air Force would like to replace the bomber's APQ-166 terrain following and mapping radars, which are essential for low-level flight. A bomb bay upgrade will allow the B-52 to carry JDAM satellite-guided bombs and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) in its internal bay. Storing weapons internally reduces drag, increasing range. Alternately a B-52 could carry both internal and external stores. A single B-52 can carry eight JASSMs internally and twelve externally, for a total of 20 of the precision attack missiles. Full article: https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a23066191/b-52-bombers-fly-until-the-2050s