19 août 2020 | International, Aérospatial
By: Gerard O'Dwyer
HELSINKI — The Finnish government's budget proposal for 2021 has allayed concerns of delays or reduced funding for the Armed Forces' (FAF) HX Fighter Program. The plan will effectively increase the military's budgetary framework in 2021 by $2 billion to $5.8 billion to meet phase one of the project's procurement costs.
The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced Finland to significantly increase international borrowings and further load national debt, was feared to have a negative bearing of the fighter replacement project, particularly against the backdrop of a potential economic recession and grim forecasts of an 8 to 10 percent drop in GDP in 2020.
Instead, the 2021 budget both protects and moves forward the $12 billion national security capital investment.
The HX Fighter Program will have a “substantial effect” on the FAF's budgetary position and finances from 2021, said the HX Program's Director, Lauri Puranen.
The $5.8 billion allocation represents a massive 54 percent increase on the FAF's defense budget for 2021 compared to 2020. Moreover, the higher financial provision will elevate military non-aligned Finland's defense spend, as a ratio of GDP, from 1.4 percent in 2020 to over 2 percent in next year.
Finland plans to procure up to 64 fighters to replace its ageing fleet of F/A-18C/D Hornets. The government is slated to finalize its decision on the choice of fighter aircraft in 2021.
The project timetable, with oversight from the FDF's Logistics Command, envisages the Finnish Air Force taking delivery of new fighters over the period 2025 to 2030.
International fighter aircraft in contention for the $12 billion contract include the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-35 and the Saab Gripen.
Phase two of the HX project is currently underway. This is focused on the content of the procurement in respect to each individual bidder. A request for best and final offers will be sought at the end of the second phase of negotiations in the fourth quarter of 2020, and ahead of a government decision on selection in the first half of 2021.
Although the 2021 budget has secured project-specific funding for the HX Fighter Program, the overall fragile state of Finland's national finances threatens to curtail capital increases to other areas of defense, including training and multi-branch field exercises, in that year.
Gen. Timo Kivinen, the FAF's defense chief, said that while the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the postponement of exercises, it has not affected Finland's military readiness.
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Mark Pomerleau In 2018, the Department of Defense began following a new philosophy for cyber operations to better protect U.S. networks and infrastructure. Known as “defend forward,” the approach allows U.S. cyber forces to be active in foreign network outside the United States to either act against adversaries or warn allies of impending cyber activity that they've observed on foreign networks. After the U.S. military killed an Iranian general in a Jan. 2 drone strike and after national security experts said they expect Iran might take some retaliatory action through cyber operations, the specter of increased cyber attacks against U.S. networks puts Cyber Command and its new approach front and center. “This Iran situation today is a big test of the ‘defend forward' approach of this administration,” James Miller, senior fellow at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and former undersecretary of defense for policy, said at a Jan. 7 event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations. “Will [Cyber Command] take preventative action? Will they do it in a way that our allies and partners support and that can be explained to the public?” While Iran fired several missiles Jan. 7 at a base in Iraq where U.S. troops lived as an initial response to the drone strike, many national security experts expect Iran could continue cyber actions as further retaliation for the strike. Iran could also ratchet up its cyber operations in the United States following the collapse of portions of the 2015 nuclear deal between the United States, Iran and five other nations to curb Iran's nuclear weapons capability in return for sanctions relief. Over the past 12 months, the White House and Congress streamlined many of the authorities used to conduct cyber operations to help cyber forces to get ahead of threats in networks around the world. One such provision in last year's annual defense policy bill provides the Pentagon with the authority to act in foreign networks if Iran, among other named nations, is conducting active, systematic and ongoing campaigns of attacks against the U.S. government or people. Cyber Command declined to comment on what, if anything, they were doing differently since the drone strike. Some experts, however, have expressed caution when assessing how well this defend forward approach has worked thus far given it is still relatively new. “The jury is very much still out here,” Ben Buchanan, assistant professor and senor faculty fellow at Georgetown University, said at the same event. “We don't have a lot of data, there's been a lot of hand-wringing ... about these authorities and about how Cyber Command may or may not be using them. I just don't think we've seen enough to judge whether or not ... [it is] meaningfully changing adversary behavior.” Others have also expressed reservations about how effective Iran can even be in cyberspace toward U.S. networks. “Iran is a capable cyber actor, Iran is a wiling cyber actor. That means Iran will conduct cyberattacks,” said Jacquelyn Schneider, Hoover fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. “It's not like they have this capability and they've been deterred in the past and maybe now they're going to turn it on. I think they've been trying this entire time.” Complicating matters further could be other actors trying to take advantage of U.S.-Iran imbroglio for their own interests. Priscilla Moriuchi, senior principal researcher and head of nation-state research at threat intelligence firm Recorded Future, said over the past several months, there have been reports of Russian state-affiliated actors hijacking Iranian cyber infrastructure to conduct operations masquerading as Iranians. “That creates its own uncertainty,” she said at the same event. “Another level of potential what we call inadvertent escalation if a country perceives that they are attacked by Iran but in reality, it” wasn't. https://www.fifthdomain.com/dod/2020/01/09/how-tensions-with-iran-could-test-a-new-cyber-strategy/