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  16 mars 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

  How COVID-19 Could Change The A&D Supply Chain

  Michael Bruno The COVID-19 outbreak is the biggest punch to the gut commercial aviation has taken since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. And coming on the heels of the Boeing 737 MAX crisis, Airbus and Boeing widebody production rate cuts, U.S. trade wars and the flight-shaming movement in Europe, the coronavirus emergency is challenging the aerospace manufacturing sector and its global supply chain. Is the historic upcycle of commercial aircraft orders over? Will orders be canceled and deferred? Will business aviation go out of favor? Only time will tell, but it has been interesting to hear what aerospace and defense (A&D) executives are worrying about. First, lost revenue from disrupted operations in China is not among their worries. Practically no one in A&D manufacturing has revised their 2020 financial forecasts—provided in January or February—because of COVID-19 alone. “To date, we have no reported cases of our employees having contracted the virus, and the direct impact to our trading activities has been minimal,” Senior Plc CEO David Squires said March 2. Likewise, GE CEO Larry Culp did not change the company's financial outlook because COVID-19 was already cited in a forecast given last month. “In our view, in all likelihood it is going to be temporary, but it doesn't mean it is going to disappear tomorrow,” Culp said at a March 4 shareholder briefing. To be sure, some OEMs and suppliers with Chinese operations had to shut down in recent weeks due to COVID-19. But those factories are back up, and the impact to revenue was limited. For instance, only 20 of Triumph Group's roughly 5,000 active suppliers are located in China or South Korea. All 20 remain operational, and no supply chain interruptions have occurred. On the supply side, the glancing blow could have a lot to do with the fact that not much in Western aerospace is sourced in China. According to U.S. Commerce Department data, the U.S. imports just $1.1 billion annually in aircraft, spacecraft and related parts. What is more, that figure has been dropping since 2016—before the U.S.-China trade war—and was expected to fall off a cliff for 2019 and 2020 regardless of the “Phase One” trade deal truce. China always was a twofold market for U.S. aerospace: Sell parts and services to existing Western-supplied fleets there, and partner for local production of nonproprietary parts and systems for emerging Chinese fleets. But China is ramping up efforts to get its own fleet into operation and is pairing with Russian suppliers more often. Any growth in overall aerospace trade likely would have to come from a jump in Chinese orders of Airbus or Boeing airliners, which was not widely expected in the wake of the Jan. 16 trade truce and is not anticipated now after the recent plummet in Chinese air traffic. Although collapsing demand worldwide for air travel could have a devastating effect on A&D manufacturing and supply, executives do not consider it likely. COVID-19 quickly turned into a short, sharp shock to the system, but industry leaders see the same underlying macro conditions driving long-term growth. Chief among them: expanding middle classes worldwide that spend more discretionary funds traveling by air for leisure. During the 2020 Aviation Summit in Washington, new Collins Aerospace President Stephen Timm was asked if the airliner-customer landscape could look a lot different in coming years due to the scare. “Frankly, we're going to see differences,” Timm said. “This will be a blip—a serious blip that we have to deal with today—but compared with the macro aerospace industry, we're in a really good place.” Where do industry insiders see change coming to the supply chain? For one thing, COVID-19 could help deepen resistance to business travel, said some attending Aviation Week's Annual Aerospace Raw Materials and Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference on March 9-12. That would exacerbate the ongoing drop in demand for widebodies. Still, the biggest change could come in accelerating a budding shift in A&D supply from globalization to regionalization. Executives and consultants at both the Wharton Aerospace Conference on Feb. 29 and Aviation Week's supply chain event discussed how COVID-19 cements a belief that just-in-time global supply chains are too risky and not worth the lower cost anymore. Instead, they look to capitalize on aerospace manufacturing hubs in Asia, Europe-North Africa and North America to supply themselves. The trend could start with aerostructures for future single-aisle airliners, especially as composite materials are increasingly incorporated. “From a colocation strategy,” says one supplier executive, “you will see it in the next-gen airplanes.” https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manufacturing-supply-chain/how-covid-19-could-change-ad-supply-chain

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  14 juin 2019 | International, Aérospatial

  There are Turkish jets in the Pentagon’s latest F-35 deal. Here’s why that’s not a big problem.

  By: Valerie Insinna WASHINGTON — The Pentagon's latest deal with Lockheed Martin for new F-35 jets includes some for Turkey, raising the question of what will happen if the country is pushed out of the program. The handshake agreement announced Monday totals about $34 billion for 478 new F-35s over lots 12 through 14, including about five to 10 jets for Turkey per lot, one source told Defense News. But that might not complicate the process of finalizing the contract agreement, aerospace analysts and other sources close to the program said — even as the Defense Department begins “unwinding” Turkey's participation in the program. At issue is Turkey's purchase of the S-400, a Russian air defense system that U.S. and NATO officials say is at odds with the alliance's plan to field the F-35. Despite months of discussions between Ankara and Washington, Turkish leaders have emphatically maintained that it will not cancel the S-400 order. In response, acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on June 6 approved a plan to strip Turkey from the F-35 program. Turkish pilots and maintainers undergoing training at U.S. bases are required to leave the United States by July 31, and contracts with Turkish defense companies could end in 2020. Ankara has since doubled down on its intent to buy the S-400. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that the purchase is already “a done deal” and that the Russian air defense system will be delivered in July, according to Reuters. “We will call to account in every platform Turkey being excluded from the F-35 program for reasons without rationale or legitimacy,” Erdogan said. So what if Turkey leaves? Sources told Defense News that Turkey's potential exit from the program isn't expected to have much of an impact on the deal for lots 12 through 14. The Pentagon hasn't provided exact costs per unit for the new F-35s, but it has acknowledged that unit flyaway costs will decrease by about 8.8 percent in Lot 12, made up of 157 jets. The department also estimates unit prices will drop by about 15 percent from Lot 11 to Lot 14 across all variants. By that framework, F-35 customers will be able to buy an F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing model for less than $80 million by Lot 13 — one year earlier than expected. That isn't expected to change, even if Turkey is knocked from the program, a department source said. Rebecca Grant of IRIS Independent Research said it's likely the number of jets and the negotiated prices in the handshake agreement will stand, adding that the Defense Department still has options on the table. “They can let Turkey go ahead and have those jets [and] park them in the desert [until this issue is resolved]. They can switch to a customer that wants earlier deliveries — also an option,” she said. Dealing with these types of problems isn't new for the United States, added Grant, who pointed to the U.S. arms embargo on Pakistan in 1990, which resulted in the country's F-16s being placed into storage. Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, said there are multiple ways for the Pentagon to deal with the fallout of a Turkish exit from the program. Countries like Singapore and Poland, which have expressed interest in buying F-35s, could join the program and pick up the slack. If Congress adds F-35s to upcoming budget cycles — which has been typical in recent years — the U.S. armed services could buy Turkey's jets. “I really don't see it as a challenge,” Aboulafia said. “This is not the same as building white tails in the commercial aviation business.” Another option was outlined by Marillyn Hewson, the head of F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin, in May: Sell Turkey's jets to existing international customers. “It's not a significant number of aircraft that if there was a sanction that they couldn't receive those aircraft now or in the future; it will be backfilled,” she said at Bernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference, according to Defense One. “In fact, a lot of countries say: ‘We'll take their [production line] slots.' They [other countries] really want the aircraft. I don't envision that being an impact on us from a Turkey standpoint.” U.S. officials remain hopeful that Turkey will cancel its S-400 order, and they have made it clear that Turkey's participation in the F-35 program will continue if that happens. “Turkey still has the option to change course. If Turkey does not accept delivery of the S-400, we will enable Turkey to return to normal F-35 program activities,” Ellen Lord, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said June 7. The U.S. government is no rush to expel Turkey from the program, Grant said. Including Turkey in the current contract negotiations helps send that message. “We need Turkey in NATO, and we'd like to see a Turkish Air Force with F-35s,” she said. “This is going to take some diplomacy.” Aboulafia noted that Turkey benefits from its involvement in the F-35 program, with its companies manufacturing parts for the jet's F135 engine and a second supplier providing the center fuselage. The country has made the development of its defense industry a priority, and risks becoming a cottage industry if it alienates its NATO allies, he said. “This does not do it any favors. They are going to have to line up partners and programs very fast," he added. But the prospect of a happy resolution is looking increasing grim, he said. “There is no room for compromise [on the U.S. side], and on the other side you have a populist, who is making this a test of his leadership. There is a lot of ego here.” https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/06/13/there-are-turkish-jets-in-the-pentagons-latest-f-35-deal-heres-why-thats-not-a-big-problem/

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  25 novembre 2020 | International, Naval

  BAE awarded $197.4M for work on USS Wasp

  By Christen McCurdy Nov. 24 (UPI) -- BAE Systems has received a $197.4 million contract from the U.S. Navy for work on the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp, the Pentagon and BAE announced. Under the contract, BAE will drydock and perform maintenance and modernization work on the amphibious assault ship. The company's last maintenance availability aboard the Wasp was from December 2016 to May 2017, when it added modifications to support Joint Strike Fighter operations. The contract includes options that, if exercised, would bring the total value of the deal to $237.7 million. "BAE Systems is very familiar with USS Wasp, performing substantial upgrade work onboard before its forward deployment to Japan three years ago," said Mark Whitney, deputy general manager of BAE Systems Ship Repair and general manager of Norfolk Ship Repair. "Our team of skilled tradespeople and subcontractors look forward to executing another long sustainment period on Wasp, to ensure the ship retains its sharp warfighting capability." This is the second time in four years the contractor has been hired to perform significant work on the ship. BAE's Norfolk shipyard will begin working on the vessel performing hull, tank and mechanical work in February 2021. The USS Wasp is the lead in a class of amphibious assault ships, and is the 10th vessel to bear the name since 1775. https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/11/24/BAE-awarded-1974M-for-work-on-USS-Wasp/9021606264831