7 avril 2020 | Local, Aérospatial

COVID-19 and aviation: Survival, recovery, and innovation

Posted on April 7, 2020 by Dr. Suzanne Kearns

This article originally appeared in The Hill Times and is published here with the permission of the author.

The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged Canadians to adapt their way of life. Aviation professionals are playing a vital role in preserving societal functioning, with airlines volunteering to repatriate Canadians abroad, crew members risking exposure to reunite travellers with their families, and cargo operations playing a vital role in the supply chain – distributing essential medical supplies.

These critical activities are only possible because of the work of the entire aviation sector that includes maintenance engineers, air traffic controllers, airport professionals, and so many others.

In 2019 airlines carried 4.3 billion passengers, 58 million tonnes of freight, and supported 65.5 million jobs around the world (3.6 per cent of the world's gross domestic product according to the Aviation Benefits Report). The tourism sector is interconnected with aviation, supporting a further 37 million tourism-related jobs.

The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the aviation industry in ways that were unfathomable at the beginning of this year. International aviation had been on a growth trajectory, with traffic projected to double in the coming 15 years. As 2020 began, some of the most pressing industry challenges were how to meet the demand for aviation professionals and achieve emission-reduction targets towards environmental sustainability.

Aviation has always been a cyclical industry directly and rapidly impacted by downturns in the economy. The industry reported losses in the early 1990s due to the recession and again in 2001 after the 9/11 attacks; in 2003 following the SARS epidemic, and in 2008 linked to the financial crisis. Each of these downturns was followed by a period of economic recovery.

Looking specifically at SARS, airlines lost $6 billion in revenues with the outbreak's economic impact having a V-shape where the rapid decline was matched by a speedy economic recovery.

Despite the airline industry's cyclical nature it has maintained profitability for the past 10 years, with a profit of $25.9 billion in 2019 despite recent tragedies and challenges, according to IATA. For example, the sector faced the 737 Max accidents in 2018 and 2019, the Ukraine Airlines Flight 752 shot down in Iran, and the emergence of “flygskam” flight shaming air travel due to its emissions. Each of these events impacts passenger confidence in aviation, and many industry experts were bracing for an economic decline as a result.

The industry maintaining profitability over the last decade is a testament to its strength and resilience.

The COVID-19 pandemic is testing the aviation sector in new ways. The entire industry is being stretched to a breaking point, without interventions, it can not survive the crisis.

Assuming travel restrictions are lifted after three months, 2020's passenger demand will be 38 per cent less than 2019, resulting in an impact of USD$ 252 billion according to IATA. Airports are projected to lose $46 billion in 2020, said Airport Council International (ACI). Although previous pandemics were followed by a sharp recovery, they did not cause recessions as COVID-19 might.

This has led to three critical questions about the future of international aviation.

  1. When will the impacts of COVID-19 subside – and what will society look like when it does?
  2. How long will it take for people to have the funds and confidence to begin flying again?
  3. What specifically can be done to ensure the industry survives the crisis? How can we innovate during the downturn to craft a stronger future?

The most pressing need for aviation is essential financial support through the pandemic, and in the coming months as society faces future waves of the virus. Beyond support to operators, it is critical to recognize that this situation also creates an opportunity to reflect upon and innovate practices within the industry.

We will overcome this challenge, and hopefully build a better future. Key priorities during this time should explore how to mobilize Canada's innovation and research infrastructure towards aviation challenges. We have leading researchers in sustainability, cognitive science and engineering, material science, machine learning, automation, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence among other areas. We are in a position to apply Canadian expertise towards aviation innovations, as important elements of our economic recovery strategy.

What is certain is that COVID-19 will change the world – what is unknown is how we can learn from this to create a stronger and more resilient future together.

Historical global airline profits and losses (from 'Fundamentals of International Aviation' by Suzanne Kearns).

https://www.skiesmag.com/news/covid-19-and-aviation-survival-recovery-and-innovation

Sur le même sujet

  • DRAKKAR and Avianor partner to fuel growth of Quebec aerospace cluster

    15 mars 2019 | Local, Aérospatial

    DRAKKAR and Avianor partner to fuel growth of Quebec aerospace cluster

    DRAKKAR, a world-class company specialized in operational outsourcing within sectors including aerospace, and Avianor, a complete commercial aviation cabin integration specialist and MRO organization, have finalized a partnership agreement which will enable Avianor to accelerate its growth strategy. With the help of Ernst & Young Orenda Corporate Finance, Avianor strongly believes the strategic and Canadian-based company DRAKKAR is the best partner to secure the future of Avianor. Following this transaction, effective as of Feb. 28, 2019, the Avianor board of directors now consists of Earl Diamond, CEO of Avianor; Sylvain Savard, president and founder of Avianor; along with two new members from DRAKKAR, Denis Deschamps, president and CEO of Drakkar & Partners; and Benoit Hudon, president and CEO of the company's manufacturing business unit. Over the past 24 years, Avianor has become a leader in the aviation industry by distinguishing itself through innovative problem solving, maintaining a skilled workforce and a flexible corporate culture. Although Avianor will remain an independent operation, DRAKKAR will now provide Avianor with strategic, tactical, financial, operational, business development and training support to help the company accelerate and achieve its consolidation and growth plan while meeting customers' satisfaction. Part of this plan also includes the renovation of a new and additional facility with over 100,000 square feet of hangars and offices with airside access at Montreal-Mirabel International Airport (YMX). “This new partnership reinforces the global positioning of our business as a high-caliber outsourcing team with the ability to optimize operations while keeping in mind productivity, efficiency and quality,” said Deschamps and Hudon. “With over 25 years of experience and expertise in outsourcing, this is a major turning point for our manufacturing business unit as it opens the door to the convergence and deployment of its global service offer. “DRAKKAR Manufacturing fits perfectly with our vision of creating our own innovative manufacturing ecosystem in one of our leading sectors, working collaboratively with our employees, partners, customers and suppliers as well as our own infrastructure,” added Deschamps and Hudon. “For us, this association with DRAKKAR reflects our determination and willingness to meet the needs of our existing and future clients and shows our concrete commitment to perpetuate Avianor activities over the long term and secure hundreds of jobs here in Quebec at the Mirabel Airport,” said Savard and Diamond. “With a current workforce of over 2,500 people and a solid experience in operations management, DRAKKAR will help us achieve the operational efficiency required of a large enterprise while ensuring personalized service is provided to all our clients.” “It is a proud moment for Aéro Montreal to see these companies conclude a partnership agreement with the objective of uniting their forces and combining their complementary expertise to create a strong added value within the industry,” said Suzanne M. Benoit, president of Aéro Montreal. “In addition to fostering economic growth and job creation across Canada, this type of partnership contributes to an even stronger, more competitive and prosperous Quebec aerospace industry. “It is a common and shared priority to ensure the visibility and influence of the companies that make up our industrial cluster, and in order to do so, we must effectively offer the OEMs more integrated solutions.” https://www.skiesmag.com/press-releases/drakkar-and-avianor-partner-to-fuel-growth-of-quebec-aerospace-cluster

  • With F-35 deal pending, Top Aces prepares for more advanced adversary training - Skies Mag

    9 juillet 2022 | Local, Aérospatial

    With F-35 deal pending, Top Aces prepares for more advanced adversary training - Skies Mag

    As the Canadian federal government negotiates with its U.S. counterpart for the sale of the F-35 to replace the RCAF CF-188 Hornet, Top Aces is preparing for how best to deliver aggressor air training for a fighter far more advanced than the Hornet.

  • All-volunteer cyber civil defence brigade assembles to fight COVID-19 hackers

    26 mars 2020 | Local, C4ISR, Sécurité

    All-volunteer cyber civil defence brigade assembles to fight COVID-19 hackers

    Number of online attacks on health care institutions jumped 475 per cent in one month, says one report Murray Brewster Civil defence used to involve air raid wardens, ambulance drivers and rescue teams. That was at the height of the Cold War, and the hot wars of the 20th century that preceded it. These days, it means taking the fight online — against hackers and cyber criminals looking to take down or ransom critical infrastructure, such as hospitals. The COVID-19 crisis has prompted Canadian IT professionals to form an all-volunteer cyber defence team to protect Canada's hospitals, health-care providers, municipalities and critical infrastructure from online attacks during the COVID-19 crisis. The SecDev Group, which has pioneered advanced analytics and cyber safety, has been spearheading the recruitment effort and has asked information technology professionals to step up and provide preventative measures and remedial services. 'Preying on fear' "Hackers are targeting hospitals and health care providers, preying on their distraction, fear and anxiety and their hope for a cure," said Rafal Rohozinski, principal and CEO of the SecDev Group "Posing as public health officials from the World Health Organization, [the] Centers for Disease Control and UNICEF, cyber criminals are flooding hospitals, medical laboratories, vaccine testing facilities, municipalities and critical service providers with phishing emails, forcing some to shut down." Trudeau leaves door open to using smartphone data to track Canadians' compliance with pandemic rules Twelve companies and associations have signed on to the initiative. Together, they plan to set up a secure online exchange to match high-tech professionals — who will volunteer their services free of charge — with agencies and institutions that need help to shore up their cyber protection, or to deal with an intrusion. "It's both a patriotic and public service reflex," said Rohozinski. "If the internet goes down, and in particular if critical institutions that we count on — like hospitals, like cities, like utilities — start to be ransomed or start to go down because of cyber malfeasance, we're all in a lot of trouble." The exchange website is still in the process of being built, but Rohozinski said it will launch within days. Online attacks exploded since pandemic began Across the globe, the number of coronavirus-related attacks on health-care institutions has increased by 475 per cent in just the past month, according to a SecDev Group assessment. At the moment, no Canadian hospitals or institutions have reported being attacked. Rohozinski said there have been signs of trolling by both cyber criminals and so-called "state actors" — including some of the Russian groups identified by U.S. intelligence as being behind the tampering in the 2016 presidential election. The Communications Security Establishment (CSE), Canada's electronic intelligence service, has said it has taken down some fake websites that were posing as government departments and institutions and trying to scam people. The U.S. Health and Human Services Department was recently targeted and the FBI has warned that hospitals in the states with the highest rates of infection — California, New York and Washington — should be on the alert for attacks from foreign actors. Hammersmith Medicines Research, a British company that is on standby to perform medical trials on any potential COVID-19 vaccine, was hit with an online attack last week, according to published reports. Over the last few days, according to a Bloomberg news report, hackers targeted hospitals in Paris with a major cyberattack. A hospital in the Czech Republic was also hit last week in what is thought to have been a ransomware attack, which forced administrators to take the network offline. Forbes Magazine reported late last week that the cybercrime groups behind the DoppelPaymer and Maze ransomware threats had promised not to target health care organizations during the COVID-19 crisis — but at least one of the groups was reportedly linked to a recent attack. Remote work networks are vulnerable An executive at one of the companies now volunteering for the cyber civil defence initiative said one area where institutions likely need help is in protecting the virtual private networks (VPNs) of employees who've been forced to work from home because of the crisis. Robert Mazzolin, the chief cyber security strategist at the RHEA Group, said the VPN systems used by most hospitals, power plants and other utilities were never designed to support so many secure connections outside the workplace. "The world is fundamentally different than it was a week ago and I don't think any large corporation or institution realistically would have been prepared to see virtually its entire workforce be working from home via remote connections," said Mazzolin, a former brigadier-general who was responsible for cyber operations in the Canadian military. Canada's cyber spies taking down sites as battle against COVID-19 fraud begins Canada's health sector at risk of cyberattacks as COVID-19 fear spreads: CSE "That places a large stress on an institution's communications workforce. The threats out there, including ransomware — it's important to be able to defend VPNs that are stretched well beyond their normal capacity and limits." He said his company and staff, who regularly work for the European Space Agency, will be able to provide insight and capability that will complement existing networks. The mandate of CSE is to protect the federal government's electronic network and — through its cyber security centre — to provide advice and guidance to people and businesses looking for cyber security information. Rohozinski said there's a difference between providing advice and actively helping in the defence and the initiative has CSE's support. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid19-cyber-companies-1.5508570

Toutes les nouvelles