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May 22, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Will COVID-19 Kill The Liberal World Order?

By on May 22, 2020 at 4:01 AM

For a brief moment it seemed that the worst global pandemic in a century might lead to increased comity between the United States, China and Russia after years of geopolitical eye-gauging. As the virus spread there were early signs of a pause in the escalating cycle of military brinksmanship, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and trade wars that has badly shaken the rules-based international order in this era of great power competition.

Beijing seemed to initially embrace a spirit of cooperation when it donated protective gear and testing equipment to hard hit countries in Europe. President Trump for months was uncharacteristically effusive in his praise of Chinese President Xi Jinping's efforts to combat the virus. Russian President Vladimir Putin got into the soft power act in early April when he dispatched an An-124 military transport to New York filled with donated masks and ventilators. (Of course, you can also argue it was a highly effective information operation designed to undermine U.S. standing in the world.)

That moment was short lived.

“Unfortunately, this crisis is likely to unfold in three consecutive waves, with a public health crisis followed by an economic crisis, quite possibly followed by a security crisis,” said David Kilcullen, author of the recent book “The Dragons and Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West,” and a former special adviser to Gen. David Petraeus in Iraq, and the U.S. Secretary of State. The United States is already experiencing high levels of domestic unrest at a time of paralyzing partisan rancor, he noted, and the discord will certainly increase as the presidential election nears in November. Adding to that combustible mixture is likely to be a second wave of the virus expected to hit in the fall, and foreign actors like Russian and China determined to use disinformation to stoke domestic divisions during the election.

“Given the likelihood of internal instability and anti-government anger here and around the world, there will be a huge incentive for leaders who personalize politics like Trump, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping to look for external scapegoats for their domestic troubles, which has already started to happen,” said Kilcullen. “This crisis also comes at a point when the international system that we've known since the end of World War II was already rotting and weaker than it appears. It may only take one big shock to bring that whole structure down, and, if we're not very careful, the pandemic could be that shock. So this is the most dangerous geopolitical dynamic I have seen in my entire career.”

As it became clear the Chinese Communist Party covered up the initial outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, wasting precious time and allowing it to blossom into a global pandemic, Beijing launched a campaign of intimidation and economic threats to mute international criticism. Borrowing a page from Russian disinformation operations, Beijing posited the conspiracy theory that the virus originated with the U.S. military. Both China and Russia pushed alarmist narratives about the pandemic on social media to sow division and panic inside the United States. Much of the protective equipment Beijing “donated” to the West carried a price tag and turned out to be defective.

In his own campaign of blame shifting and heated rhetoric, President Donald Trump accused China of being responsible for an attack on the United States that “is worse that Pearl Harbor,” and “worse than the World Trade Center” that fell in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Chinese incompetence in dealing with the virus, Trump tweeted this week, is responsible for “mass Worldwide killing!”

Trump darkly hinted in mid-April that he had information that a virology lab in Wuhan played an important role in the virus' creation, even though the U.S. Intelligence Community consensus was that the virology lab in Wuhan had nothing to do the virus' creation or origins.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insisted there is “enormous evidence” the coronavirus originated in that lab. “We greatly underestimated the degree to which Beijing is ideologically and politically hostile to free nations,” Pompeo told reporters this week, after sending a rare, high-level message of congratulations to recently reelected Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen, who has rejected the “one country, two systems” construct that has kept the peace between China and Taiwan for nearly half a century.

As the Trump administration weighs retribution against China, it has continued to ratchet up the rhetoric and provocations, angering and worrying allies by cutting critical funding to the World Health Organization (WHO) in the midst of the pandemic, and boycotting a virtual meeting of G-20 nations that attempted to coordinate an international response to the crisis, leaving a leadership gap that China was happy to help fill.

Meanwhile, populist leaders and autocratic regimes around the world are using the threat of the pandemic to assume extraordinary powers and crack down on their political opposition in what the United Nations Special Rapporteur for Counterterrorism and Human Rights called an “an epidemic of authoritarianism,” according to the The New York Times.

Shaky World Order

Even before the pandemic the post-WW II international order that the United States constructed and led for more than half a century was on shaky ground. The global institutions, alliances and rules governing international relations has been challenged by assertive autocratic regimes like China and Russia, and eroded from within by inward-looking nationalist-populists movements spreading throughout the Western democracies.

The liberal international order has also been largely abandoned by its leader as Donald Trump's administration retreats further into “America First” isolationism. The Trump doctrine in international affairs actively seeks to undermine the institutions of global order, whether it's the World Health and Trade Organizations, the UN, the European Union or NATO. The administration has rejected or abolished all manner of multilateral agreements and treaties designed to peacefully constrain international rivalries, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, the Paris Climate Agreement, the Iran nuclear deal, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, and quite possibly next year the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).

A Dark History

History is rife with cautionary examples of natural disasters or economic crises conflating with geopolitical tensions, with cataclysmic results. The catastrophic 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed more than 20 million victims worldwide, was accelerated and spread by troop movements during World War I. With many Americans disillusioned by the war and loss, the United States turned insular and isolationist during the 1920s, rejecting the League of Nations, dramatically curtailing immigration and erecting steep tariff barriers to trade. Much of the rest of the world followed suit.

The U.S. stock market crash of 1929 was compounded the next year by one of the worst droughts in history. When the Japanese invaded China two years later, and Adolf Hitler became German chancellor soon after, there was no League of Nations nor stabilizing trading systems to contain the war fever that swept the globe and became World War II.

“When you think back to 1918 and the Spanish flu, it's worth remembering that more people died in the second wave than the first, and the Great Depression and the 1930s taught us that bad economic conditions can be transformative,” said Joseph Nye, a professor emeritus and former Dean of the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, speaking recently on a videoconference organized by The National Interest. “The point is, in the current pandemic we're likely only in Act 1 of a multi-act play.”

Combustible Leadership

The very real potential for the pandemic crisis to propel the major powers towards outright military conflict was noted recently by the Chinese Ministry of State Security, Beijing's top intelligence agency. In a report for Xi Jinping and the senior Chinese leadership it reportedly concluded that global anti-China sentiment being stoked by the Trump administration has reached its highest peak since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and as a result China needs to be prepared for a worst-case scenario of armed confrontation with the United States.

Despite the warnings, Xi Jinping has doubled down in recent months on provocative military maneuvers in its neighboring seas, sending its Liaoning carrier battle group and military flights off the coast of Taiwan; conducting anti-submarine exercises in contested areas of the South China Sea; ramming and sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat near the disputed Paracel Islands; dispatching a fishing boat “militia” to harass Philippine counterparts near the contested Spratly Islands; and harassing a Malaysian drillship.

Some analysts see those moves as an attempt by Xi Jinping to show strength and bolster his image at home among a Chinese populace wearied by the pandemic shutdowns and economic disruptions. Those provocations are exactly the kind of saber-rattling that can escalate dangerously in a time of crisis.

George Beebe is a former director of the CIA's Russia analysis section, and author of the book “The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Catastrophe.” “My concern is that the major power leaders Putin, Xi and Trump all tend to personalize international relations and politics. They are all going through severe economic and political distress. Each of them is convinced that their rivals are trying to exploit the pandemic crisis, and not one of them is dealing from a position of strength and confidence,” he told me.

Putin has long felt betrayed and threatened by the United States, Beebe noted, and Xi Jinping is convinced that America is trying to thwart China's rise. One of the few constants in Trump's worldview is the conviction that China has taken advantage of the United States with trade going back decades.

“So there's a lot of fear and emotion and very little trust in the relationships between these leaders during a time of great strain, and their communications and diplomatic mechanisms to manage a crisis if one occurs have atrophied,” said Beebe. “Given that personalities and personal relationships among national leaders are far more important in international affairs than a lot of people appreciate, I do worry that we're entering a very dangerous period when cooler heads may not prevail among the great power leaders.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/05/will-covid-19-kill-the-liberal-world-order

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  • We asked defense companies how they’re impacted by the coronavirus. Here’s what they said.

    March 19, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    We asked defense companies how they’re impacted by the coronavirus. Here’s what they said.

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That's not a huge surprise to Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners, who noted that there are many moving parts for companies to work through. “Maybe it's too soon for a lot of these guys,” Callan said. “When you think about it, we're into the second week of this [as a national emergency]. By the time they do earning calls in April, they should definitely have a better grip on what's happened in the last few weeks and what might they be looking at.” That could potentially include anything from supply chain issues to delays in delivery of defense articles to a massive bailout of the commercial aerospace industry and issues with pension requirements, Callan warned. “It's like a giant rock you drop in a lake. It's got all these waves. The people who work in restaurants or hotels are the ones feeling it immediately, but it's going to wash up and ripple through all these sectors, and we just don't know how or when the impact will be,” Callan said. “You're pilling up unknowns and unknowns here.” Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the design of modern production spaces shouldn't preclude people being able to work there, noting that for “a lot of those manufacturing jobs, they're set up, and the way a lot of people are doing work, they have adequate social distancing anyway." “If you've been in these facilities, they're not like sweatshops where people are in crowded, unventilated areas. It's pretty spread out, and a lot of the jobs in defense manufacturing are basically operating machinery,” he said. “I think what would be more affected would be the engineering and design functions, where the engineers tend to operate in more cubicle-like spaces — and you probably don't want to be doing that right now.” The Pentagon is also early in the process of getting a handle on what those impacts may look like. The department's top acquisitions official, Ellen Lord, has instituted a daily phone call with the Aerospace Industries Association, National Defense Industrial Association, Professional Services Council, National Association of Manufacturers, and Chamber of Commerce to “ensure the security, reliability and resilience of our defense-industrial base” and “and get feedback on COVID-19 impacts on industry,” according to a department spokesman. The first call, which happened Tuesday, was chaired by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Industrial Policy Jennifer Santos and included representatives from the Industrial Policy office, the Defense Contracting Management Agency, the Defense Logistics Agency, and the Defense Pricing and Contracting office. One potentially vulnerable part of the defense-industrial base is the ongoing modernization of America's nuclear arsenal, which the head of U.S. Strategic Command said last month is approaching a “point of no return” should there be even small delays in the upgrade effort. On Tuesday, Capt. Bill Clinton, STRATCOM's chief of public affairs, said the combatant command is “confident the services, along with industry partners, are able to keep production related to modernization of our nuclear forces on track, while taking appropriate precautions to keep their workforces safe and healthy. ... While our nation is working diligently to solve this acute public health crisis, I am confident we can continue modernizing our nuclear forces on time as planned.” Over the past few days, Defense News reached out to a number of key defense players whose production lines could be impacted by the virus. Here is a collection of their responses: BAE Systems spokeswoman Kelly Golden: BAE Systems has robust business continuity plans which have been implemented and are under constant review as the situation evolves. We continue to ensure we are providing a safe work environment for our employees, customers and suppliers while minimizing impact to our operations. We have also asked our suppliers and contractors to implement measures that are consistent with those we have put in place to protect our employees. Boeing spokesman Larry Chambers: Boeing has issued updated guidance directing all employees who are able to perform their work from home effectively to telecommute until further notice. Some Boeing sites were already partially or fully operating under these guidelines in accordance with local or national government mandates. Production continues at this time, and the company has enhanced cleaning procedures in work spaces, common areas and on high-touch surfaces. We're assessing the safety of all of our sites and their alignment with local, state and national government guidance as we continuously monitor this evolving situation. Leadership at each of our sites is working closely with their employees to implement the guidance, and will make all decisions necessary to follow evolving government direction and to ensure the health and wellbeing of their teams and communities. Electric Boat spokeswoman Liz Power: Electric Boat remains open for business. Our ongoing mission is to provide our Navy with the high-quality submarines they require to complete their missions. We have initiated all government-recommended measures to mitigate spread of the disease and continue to work closely with our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders and our community to keep them informed. Fincantieri spokesman Eric Dent: Fincantieri Marine Group has customers with important missions — naval and commercial — and together we're dealing with the Coronavirus pandemic and working to prevent or reduce its impact to our mission and our people. So far, we have experienced no production delays. Obviously like other businesses and shipyards, we have to balance force health protection and production as we work through this. We've taken several mitigating actions, such as extensive cleanings of common areas, scrutinizing the self-reported health of every guest or visitor in the yard, eliminating all but critical travel outside the local area. In some circumstances, we are encouraging employees to work from home if possible. Through this all, we continue to reinforce the need for stringent personal hygiene and social distancing protocols, as well as eliminating large gatherings. We continue communicating with our employees so they understand the importance of their health is to us and their families, and if they exhibit symptoms or are caring for someone with flu-like symptoms, they should not risk the potential spread of it and stay home in accordance with our personnel policies. We suspended all international travel Mar. 4, and all non-critical domestic travel on Mar. 9. We suspended intracompany travel Mar. 13, to reduce the chance of exposure across multiple Fincantieri shipyards in Wisconsin. General Dynamics Land Systems: We are open for business. Our ongoing mission is to provide our Soldiers with the critical platforms and capabilities that they require to complete their mission. We have initiated all government-recommended measures to mitigate spread of the disease and continue to work closely with our employees, customers, suppliers, stakeholders and our community to keep them informed. Huntington Ingalls Industries spokeswoman Beci Brenton: At HII we are taking actions that are designed with the health and safety of our employees at the forefront of our decision making, and this extends across the enterprise. We are having multiple meetings 24/7 with leadership and diligently monitoring the ever changing situation, as well as following CDC's guidelines. This is rapidly evolving and some measures are division specific while others are universal. [HII has put a video statement from its CEO online addressing several issues.] Lockheed Martin spokesman Trent Perrotto As we monitor global developments we continue to use best practices to mitigate risks related to Coronavirus (COVID-19). The health and well-being of our employees and partners is our top priority. Across Lockheed Martin, employees with potential exposure are instructed to work remotely and self-quarantine. We have provided guidance to employees and their managers to accommodate flexible work schedules and alternative arrangements where possible. We continue to follow travel guidance from the U.S. government and other countries where we do business, and are limiting all other international and domestic travel unless necessary for business. We also pre-screen visitors to company locations and limit guests to ensure visits are necessary for business. When the circumstances warrant, we deep clean work areas and common spaces in any facility with elevated exposure to COVID-19 and regularly share exposure-prevention protocols to reinforce healthy behaviors. Additionally, we are mitigating any potential impacts to customers and implementing business continuity plans as required, including secure telework for our customer support teams. There are no specific impacts to our operations or supply chain at this time. We will continue to monitor and coordinate with customers should issues arise. Northrop Grumman spokesman Tim Paynter: We continue to closely monitor this rapidly evolving situation so we can quickly address concerns and impacts to our employees, operations and customers, and we are ready with contingency plans as the situation continues to develop. The safety and well-being of our employees is our top priority and we are continuing to provide our employees as much information as possible. We are taking additional steps to protect the well-being of our employees, including halting travel, limiting non-essential visitors to work environments, reducing density and increasing separation distance where possible, providing personal hand sanitizers and cleaning our workplaces on a daily basis and disinfecting as needed. 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