Back to news

June 14, 2019 | International, Aerospace

There are Turkish jets in the Pentagon’s latest F-35 deal. Here’s why that’s not a big problem.

By:

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon's latest deal with Lockheed Martin for new F-35 jets includes some for Turkey, raising the question of what will happen if the country is pushed out of the program.

The handshake agreement announced Monday totals about $34 billion for 478 new F-35s over lots 12 through 14, including about five to 10 jets for Turkey per lot, one source told Defense News.

But that might not complicate the process of finalizing the contract agreement, aerospace analysts and other sources close to the program said — even as the Defense Department begins “unwinding” Turkey's participation in the program.

At issue is Turkey's purchase of the S-400, a Russian air defense system that U.S. and NATO officials say is at odds with the alliance's plan to field the F-35. Despite months of discussions between Ankara and Washington, Turkish leaders have emphatically maintained that it will not cancel the S-400 order.

In response, acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on June 6 approved a plan to strip Turkey from the F-35 program. Turkish pilots and maintainers undergoing training at U.S. bases are required to leave the United States by July 31, and contracts with Turkish defense companies could end in 2020.

Ankara has since doubled down on its intent to buy the S-400. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that the purchase is already “a done deal” and that the Russian air defense system will be delivered in July, according to Reuters.

“We will call to account in every platform Turkey being excluded from the F-35 program for reasons without rationale or legitimacy,” Erdogan said.

So what if Turkey leaves?

Sources told Defense News that Turkey's potential exit from the program isn't expected to have much of an impact on the deal for lots 12 through 14.

The Pentagon hasn't provided exact costs per unit for the new F-35s, but it has acknowledged that unit flyaway costs will decrease by about 8.8 percent in Lot 12, made up of 157 jets. The department also estimates unit prices will drop by about 15 percent from Lot 11 to Lot 14 across all variants.

By that framework, F-35 customers will be able to buy an F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing model for less than $80 million by Lot 13 — one year earlier than expected. That isn't expected to change, even if Turkey is knocked from the program, a department source said.

Rebecca Grant of IRIS Independent Research said it's likely the number of jets and the negotiated prices in the handshake agreement will stand, adding that the Defense Department still has options on the table.

“They can let Turkey go ahead and have those jets [and] park them in the desert [until this issue is resolved]. They can switch to a customer that wants earlier deliveries — also an option,” she said.

Dealing with these types of problems isn't new for the United States, added Grant, who pointed to the U.S. arms embargo on Pakistan in 1990, which resulted in the country's F-16s being placed into storage.

Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, said there are multiple ways for the Pentagon to deal with the fallout of a Turkish exit from the program.

Countries like Singapore and Poland, which have expressed interest in buying F-35s, could join the program and pick up the slack. If Congress adds F-35s to upcoming budget cycles — which has been typical in recent years — the U.S. armed services could buy Turkey's jets.

“I really don't see it as a challenge,” Aboulafia said. “This is not the same as building white tails in the commercial aviation business.”

Another option was outlined by Marillyn Hewson, the head of F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin, in May: Sell Turkey's jets to existing international customers.

“It's not a significant number of aircraft that if there was a sanction that they couldn't receive those aircraft now or in the future; it will be backfilled,” she said at Bernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference, according to Defense One. “In fact, a lot of countries say: ‘We'll take their [production line] slots.' They [other countries] really want the aircraft. I don't envision that being an impact on us from a Turkey standpoint.”

U.S. officials remain hopeful that Turkey will cancel its S-400 order, and they have made it clear that Turkey's participation in the F-35 program will continue if that happens.

“Turkey still has the option to change course. If Turkey does not accept delivery of the S-400, we will enable Turkey to return to normal F-35 program activities,” Ellen Lord, the Pentagon's acquisition chief, said June 7.

The U.S. government is no rush to expel Turkey from the program, Grant said. Including Turkey in the current contract negotiations helps send that message.

“We need Turkey in NATO, and we'd like to see a Turkish Air Force with F-35s,” she said. “This is going to take some diplomacy.”

Aboulafia noted that Turkey benefits from its involvement in the F-35 program, with its companies manufacturing parts for the jet's F135 engine and a second supplier providing the center fuselage. The country has made the development of its defense industry a priority, and risks becoming a cottage industry if it alienates its NATO allies, he said.

“This does not do it any favors. They are going to have to line up partners and programs very fast," he added.

But the prospect of a happy resolution is looking increasing grim, he said.

“There is no room for compromise [on the U.S. side], and on the other side you have a populist, who is making this a test of his leadership. There is a lot of ego here.”

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/06/13/there-are-turkish-jets-in-the-pentagons-latest-f-35-deal-heres-why-thats-not-a-big-problem/

On the same subject

  • To keep up with rivals, DoD nominee will weigh consolidation vs. innovation

    February 4, 2021 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    To keep up with rivals, DoD nominee will weigh consolidation vs. innovation

    By: Joe Gould WASHINGTON ― President Joe Biden's nominee for deputy defense secretary, Kathleen Hicks, said she is “concerned” about consolidation in the defense industrial base, and that competition is needed to maintain an edge over China and Russia. Hicks, whose office would review deals that involve national security issues if she is confirmed by the Senate, told lawmakers Tuesday that she would work with them to ensure a healthy defense industrial base. The comments came amid market expectations that defense deal-making could take off in 2021. “Extreme consolidation does create challenges for innovation,” Hicks told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “We need to have a lot of different good ideas out there. That's our competitive advantage over authoritarian states like China, and Russia. And so if we move all competition out, obviously, that's a challenge for the taxpayer. But it's also a challenge in terms of the innovation piece.” As the space sector and technological developments drive growth in the aerospace and defense sector and the pandemic weakens commercial aviation firms, companies are “likely to pursue opportunities for consolidation,” the consulting firm Deloitte said in a recent report. Firms could seek new merger and acquisition opportunities, the report said, to “capture more value, drive cost-competitiveness, or acquire targeted niche capabilities and emerging technologies” such as “advanced air mobility, hypersonics, electric propulsion, and hydrogen-powered aircraft.” Recent years have seen a number of major deals, including the combination of Harris and L3 Technologies, United Technologies Corp. and Raytheon; BAE Systems and Collins Aerospace, and General Dynamics and CSRA. Lockheed Martin's $4.4 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne, announced in December, has yet to clear regulators. The Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department also review mergers and acquisition activity in the defense sector. At Tuesday's hearing, Connecticut Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal, whose state hosts General Dynamics Electric Boat, told Hicks a drop in the number of submarine suppliers from 17,000 to 5,000 over recent decades suggested broader problems for the defense industrial base, problems that he said were, “extremely alarming to me.” Blumenthal indicated Hicks had committed prior to the hearing to aid small suppliers struggling with the pandemic's economic fallout and to develop new small and medium suppliers. (This was one focus of DoD's acquisition and sustainment office under the previous administration.) “I'm hoping you will focus on the supply chain that is vitally important to suppliers like Electric Boat or Raytheon or any of our major sources of supply,” said Blumenthal, who has served as the top Democrat on SASC's Seapower Subcommittee. A broader theme for the hearing was how Hicks, whose job involves supervising the defense budget, would invest in forward-leaning technologies under a flat budget and divest from existing weapons platforms. Meanwhile, lawmakers grilled Hicks about whether she supported spending on nuclear modernization, shipbuilding and other programs with connections to lawmakers' home states. Acknowledging the political and budget tensions, Hicks said she wants to link future budgetary decisions with concepts for operations, to buy “capabilities that actually line up to theories of victory for how we are trying to pace challenges from China and Russia.” Other lawmakers told Hicks they wanted an easier paths for smaller, cutting edge firms from outside the Beltway to do business with the Pentagon and for them to scale production of their products, beyond the experimentation phase. “We've had testimony before this committee that many smaller companies, particularly in Silicon Valley, and in the technology field generally have given up on the Pentagon, it's too complicated is too lengthy is too expensive, even to fill out the forms,” said Sen. Angus King, I-Maine. For her part, Hicks said Tuesday she would “increase the speed and scale of innovation in our force,” and she would work to understand how alternative acquisitions methods are servings smaller non-traditional suppliers. She affirmed that those firms cannot survive on research and development funding alone. “I do think a sustain level of [research and development] investment is vital, but we actually have to field capabilities, and that's a place where DoD has really struggled,” she said, adding that exercises and experiments help demonstrate the value of new technologies. “When we can demonstrate value, then we're in a much better position to have a dialogue with Congress and with industry about where that where those capabilities can take us.” https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/02/02/to-keep-up-with-rivals-dod-nominee-will-weigh-consolidation-vs-innovation/

  • Marines increase ways to detect and kill air threats, from hobby drones to cruise missiles

    August 7, 2018 | International, Land

    Marines increase ways to detect and kill air threats, from hobby drones to cruise missiles

    By: Todd South As Marine units face evolving drone threats from terrorist organizations and at the same time shore up their air defenses against near-peer air attacks, a few key pieces of gear in the most recent defense bill could vastly strengthen overhead protection. Until recently, Marines tasked with taking down drones or short-range missiles had to link into a vast array of detection devices and then perform a practically 20th century task to take them out. Essentially, a Marine with binoculars scans the air for drones while another Marine zeroes in with a Stinger missile ― first fielded in the 1980s but upgraded since ― to shoot down what is often a few hundred dollars' worth of a patched together, weaponized or surveillance-type commercial drone. But a review of the past five years of Marine Corps budget requests and approvals for two systems, the Ground Based Air Defense-Transformation, or GBAD, and the Ground/Air Task-Oriented Radar, or G/ATOR, have more than doubled in the past five years and are projected to maintain or increase from now until 2022, when a GBAD with a laser component is expected to field. Beginning as far back as 2013, the Marines have been purchasing the G/ATOR, an advanced radar system that executes the function of a combined five legacy systems. Full Article: https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2018/08/06/marines-increase-ways-to-detect-and-kill-air-threats-from-hobby-drones-to-cruise-missiles/

  • What the Hell Is Space Force Up To? Ronny Chieng Investigates

    August 18, 2022 | International, Aerospace

    What the Hell Is Space Force Up To? Ronny Chieng Investigates

    Spaceships. Lasers. It's the military in space! Ronny Chieng heads to the Pentagon to find out what Space Force, the sixth and coolest branch of the military...

All news