Back to news

November 26, 2020 | International, Aerospace

Stop the budgetary bleeding to get the Air Force we need

By: Douglas Birkey

In 2018, then-Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson sounded the alarm regarding the size of her service: “The Air Force is too small for what the nation expects of us.” Her response was direct: The service needed to grow from 312 to 386 operational squadrons.

Given the concurrent demands presented by China and Russia at the high end of the threat spectrum, Iran and North Korea in the middle, and the continued danger posed by nonstate actors at the lower threat tier, this imperative for growth was grounded in clear requirements. However, instead of marking a positive turning point for the service, subsequent years saw the Air Force grow smaller, older and more fragile.

The burgeoning security environment demands that this downward spiral end now. This is exactly why the Senate's version of the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act includes specific aircraft inventory floors for the Air Force. With positive intentions having fallen short year after year, it is time for legislation to stop the bleeding.

No form of power projection is possible without the capabilities afforded by the Air Force. Ships at sea, forces on land and rear echelon operating locations will not survive long if not defended from aerial attack. Long-range strike affords the unique ability to hit critical targets deep behind enemy lines. Air mobility empowers joint force operations. Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance was the most in-demand mission area over the past two decades, and remains so today. Added to this, the Air Force also provides two-thirds of the nuclear triad.

Despite the value provided by these missions, the Air Force has struggled to earn its fair share of the defense budget. It absorbed the largest fiscal cuts out of all the services in the years after the Cold War. Between 1989 and 2001, the Air Force saw procurement funding drop by over 52 percent — nearly 20 percent more than the other services. FY13 saw aircraft procurement funding hit the lowest levels in Air Force history.

To add insult to injury, the Air Force also sees nearly 20 percent of its top-line budget diverted to the intelligence community — enough money to buy over 400 F-35 fighter jets a year. No other service gets hit like this.

With budget pressures a perennial problem, the Air Force has continually sought to divest aircraft to free up cash. The problem is that the demand for Air Force missions never went away. Quite the opposite, it increased. In 1990, the Air Force had 2,893 fighters; today it has around 1,800. This same period saw bombers drop from 327 to 157. Combat operations have been unending since 1991, which means a smaller number of aircraft and crews simply get spun harder to meet demand.

This is an unsustainable pattern, with the B-1B bomber standing as a cautionary tale. It has been flying combat missions on a nonstop basis since the 9/11 attacks. The Air Force retired a third of the B-1B inventory in the 2000s to save money that could be reinvested in the remaining aircraft. Budget pressures in subsequent years saw these savings evaporate, maintenance dollars run too thin and the aircraft pressed to the limit. They hit the breaking point last year, with less than 10 percent of the Air Force's B-1Bs mission-capable.

With nearly every mission area in the Air Force inventory labeled as “high demand, low density,” expect to see similar challenges proliferate. These stresses are also a major driver behind the pilot crisis.

Shrinking the Air Force in the hopes that expected savings could fund modernization has served as a continual mirage for Air Force planners. Indeed, the Air Force's answer to funding the Advanced Battle Management System and other priorities in the FY21 budget submission was to retire more aircraft. Better networks are of little use without the ability to complete the kill chain, and that takes aircraft. Presumed areas of growth hang precariously years into the future. There's little chance that cash will remain protected given COVID-19 budget pressures.

The problem is that even when divestiture plans appear plausible on internal spreadsheets, service officials are not the ultimate arbiters of their resources. The broader Department of Defense, Office of Management and Budget, and Congress each have a vote on how funds are managed. This pattern clearly has not worked for the Air Force for the past 30 years. Playing this losing hand again will break the force at fundamental levels.

That is why the Senate's proposed aircraft floor is not just a good idea — it is a necessity. A prudent negotiator does not enter a meeting with a high-risk position as the starting point, but that is exactly what the Air Force has done for far too long. The time has come to openly articulate what is required to meet national security requirements. That is what the 386 operational squadron goal is all about. It comes down to acknowledging what airmen will need to fly into harm's way, get the job done and come home safe. This takes both capability and capacity. It is time to rebuild the Air Force we need.

Douglas Birkey is the executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, where he researches issues relating to the future of aerospace and national security.

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/11/25/stop-the-budgetary-bleeding-to-get-the-air-force-we-need/

On the same subject

  • US Army triggers design competition for future attack reconnaissance helicopter

    October 4, 2018 | International, Aerospace

    US Army triggers design competition for future attack reconnaissance helicopter

    By: Jen Judson WASHINGTON — The U.S. Army has kicked off a major design competition for its Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft by releasing a request to industry on Oct. 3 to submit plans that could lead to a chance to build flyable prototypes in just a few years. The service, in June, released a draft solicitation that outlined its intention to get two different helicopter prototypes flying in 2023. The effort is part of the Army's larger move to procure a family of Future Vertical Lift, or FVL, aircraft in the early 2030s, if not sooner. The Army has been talking about procuring an FVL family of helicopters for the better part of a decade and has debated whether to prioritize the pursuit of a medium-lift helicopter to replace UH-60 Black Hawks and AH-64 Apache helicopters. Alternatively, the service was considering buying an armed reconnaissance helicopter to fill the gap left by the OH-58 Kiowa Warrior's 2014 retirement. With the advent of the Army Futures Command and its focus on six modernization priorities, of which FVL is third, progress is being made at lightning speed to make FVL a reality. The service, through an FVL Cross-Functional Team, led by Brig. Gen. Wally Rugen, has settled on going after both a long-range assault helicopter and a Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraftsomewhat back-to-back. But the FARA procurement plans are fast-paced and lead straight to a winner through a fly-off competition, which deviates from the way the Army has gone about its future medium-lift helicopter development. While the Army collected designs, reviewed them and selected two teams to build prototypes to fly in a Joint Multi-Role technology demonstration for a medium-lift aircraft, the results will simply inform requirements for the Army to move into a program of record where the service will make a determination on how it will compete, build and procure a long-range assault variant of FVL. With the FARA competition, the Army plans to award four to six initial design contracts in June of 2019, and then nine months later — to avoid camping out in the PowerPoint stage — the service will choose up to two designs to move forward in fiscal 2021 with a fly-off planned to start in the first quarter of 2023 (November 2022 to be specific, according to the solicitation). The Army will choose a winner and move forward into a milestone appropriate to advance the procurement of the helicopter, whether that is a technology development phase or engineering and manufacturing development or even a production phase, Rugen told a small group of reporters in an Oct. 3 media roundtable. It all depends on where the technology stands following the fly-off and what phase of the acquisition process the Army will enter once it chooses a winner, Dan Bailey, the Army's JMR-TD director, said in the interview. “The Army currently lacks the ability to conduct armed reconnaissance, light attack, and security with improved stand-off and lethal and non-lethal capabilities with a platform sized to hide in radar clutter and for the urban canyons and mega cities,” the solicitation states. The helicopter would be the “ ‘knife-fighter' of future Army Aviation capabilities” in a small package with “maximized performance,” it describes. The Army doesn't want to carve out requirements in granite, according to Rugen, and intends to be flexible as technology capability unfolds in the program, but the solicitation does state it wants a 40-foot maximum rotor diameter, and the fuselage should also not exceed 40 feet in width. By staying flexible, the Army hopes to steer clear of some of the mistakes it has made in the past attempting to acquire an armed reconnaissance helicopter. The Army failed three times to procure a new aircraft — the most memorable being the cancellation of the Comanche helicopter program in 2004 after two aircraft were built and $6.9 billion was spent. Rugen said the Army also wants to make sure affordability considerations are driven into the program and the designs from the beginning are a top requirement for industry to consider. The Army also wants the designs to incorporate the Improved Turbine Engine Program, or ITEP,engine that is being competitively developed to replace the engines in Black Hawks and Apaches. The Army is close to choosing a winner from two teams designing engines to move into the engineering and manufacturing development phase of the program within the next few months. The Army plans to spend approximately $15 million per industry participant in the initial design phase. Participants would receive $8.5 million in FY19 and $6.5 million in FY20. The two participants selected to continue into the prototype phase of the program would receive about $735 million each from FY20 to FY23. Rugen and Bailey said industry interest following the release of the draft solicitation in June has been higher than anticipated and included both industry partners that were not expected and all of those that were. Bailey said that, based on industry interest and participation so far, choosing six designs would be a competitive process because there are more than six possible entrants that have expressed interest in submitting designs. Tim Malia, Sikorsky's program director for FVL light development, told Defense News in a recent interview that the Lockheed Martin-owned company planned to use its X2 technology that is used in its S-97 Raider coaxial helicopter program as the centerpiece to its design offering for the FARA competition. The company is already scaling its X2 technology used in Raider up to a medium-lift aircraft — called the SB-1 Defiant that is participating in the JMR technology demonstration and expected to fly by the end of the year. Malia said it would not be difficult to scale the helicopter from the 34-foot main rotor diameter size of the Raider to the desired 40-foot diameter rotor blades envisioned for FARA. The company has also been working on designs to outfit Raider or any aircraft it builds with X2 technology with the ITEP engine. Sikorsky announced Oct. 3 that its Raider aircraft exceeded 200 knots in a flight test at its West Palm Beach, Florida, flight test center. Bell, which has been flying its V-280 Valor til-trotor helicopter as part of the JMR-TD effort for the better part of a year, continues to hold tight its plans for a design to submit to the FARA competition. https://www.defensenews.com/land/2018/10/03/us-army-triggers-design-competition-for-future-attack-reconnaissance-helicopter

  • ICAO Council endorses new Global Aviation Security Plan

    November 15, 2017 | International, Aerospace, Security

    ICAO Council endorses new Global Aviation Security Plan

    ​The 36-State ICAO Council. In endorsing the very first Global Aviation Security Plan today to improve international coordination, reponse, and planning relating to threats to civil aviation passengers, aircraft and facilities, the Council encouraged the ICAO Secretariat to continue refining and improving it on the basis of close continued cooperation with States and security stakeholders globally, and with due attention to all applicable implementation assistance and capacity building requirements in ICAO's Regions. ​ Montréal, 15 November 2017 – The ICAO Council took an historic step in endorsing the very first Global Aviation Security Plan to improve international coordination, response, and planning to counter threats to civil aviation passengers, cargo, aircraft and facilities. “This new strategic document will assist ICAO Member States in their aviation security coordination with other States and applicable security agencies, as well as helping to nurture security cultures and capabilities, place greater focus on the role of new technologies and innovations, and refine related frameworks for oversight and quality assurance,” affirmed ICAO Council President Dr. Olumuyiwa Benard Aliu. A set of indicators and target dates have also been established, and all associated targets and outcomes will be regularly reviewed and adjusted, taking into account all new and emerging aviation security threats. “The Council has encouraged the ICAO Secretariat to continue refining and improving this critical living document, on the basis of close continued cooperation with States and security stakeholders globally, and with due attention to all applicable implementation assistance and capacity building requirements in ICAO's Regions,” Dr. Aliu further commented. Subsequent to its first review of the new Global Aviation Security Plan in June 2017, the Council authorized its transmission to ICAO Member States and international organizations for comment. Ninety-six percent of those replies indicated agreement with its scope and purpose, as well as the related strategies and global targets, which will continue to be refined. “The ICAO Secretariat has developed this strategic document on an accelerated basis to answer the call of ICAO's Council and Member States and the respective commitments and actions of national governments will now be essential to its overall impact and value,” commented ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu. “This new Global Aviation Security Plan will now take its place alongside ICAO's existing Global Plans for aviation safety and system-wide capacity and efficiency, and importantly it directly responds to various resolutions and expectations regarding aviation security and terrorism which have been expressed to ICAO by the United Nations Security Council.” The ICAO Global Aviation Security Plan calls for action at the global, regional and national levels by States, industry and other stakeholders in raising the level of implementation of Annex 17 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation – Security. Secretary General Liu further confirmed that a roadmap outlining 94 tasks, accompanying 32 actions under five key priority outcomes, will be central to the new Global Plan's roll out. These lay the groundwork for objectives over the next three years until the 40th Session of the ICAO Assembly in 2019. In line with its contribution to the Global Counter-terrorism Strategy of the United Nations, ICAO will continue to coordinate with the Security Council and its various committees on all priorities relevant to aviation and border security, and bring together the private and public sector partners who help ensure our network remains at the dependable service of societies and economies. https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/ICAO-Council-endorses-new-Global-Aviation-Security-Plan.aspx

  • Air Force Awards $95M For Cyber Intelligence

    February 9, 2021 | International, C4ISR, Security

    Air Force Awards $95M For Cyber Intelligence

    The investment is a sign of the Air Force's commitment to fighting war effectively across all domains, including cyber and its electronic warfare cousin. By KELSEY ATHERTONon February 08, 2021 at 5:08 PM ALBUQUERQUE: The 16th Air Force, designed to constantly contest the electromagnetic spectrum, has awarded a $95 million contract to support both command and control and service cryptologic element roles. The contract — Full Spectrum Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Operational Non-Appropriated Funds Support, or FUSIONS — was awarded to Scientific Research Corp of Atlanta. It will run through February 2026. In a sign that Scientific may have developed a promising approach, this is not the first award to the company for this sort of work. The Navy awarded the company a contract similar in scale and scope in 2018. The 16th Air Force first started soliciting this contract in November 2019, one month after the command was created. The original solicitation emphasized the importance of “delivering timely and relevant intelligence data/products to the war fighter.” The 16th was created by merging an Air Force cyber mission with an Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance component. Combining intelligence collection in the same component as one that can launch attacks on computers is a way for the Air Force to show how closely connected cyber attacks are to online espionage. Cyber, like surveillance and activity in the electromagnetic spectrum, can happen below the threshold of a shooting war but can also be used for targeting and to inflict physical damage. The scale of the investment is a sign of the Air Force's commitment to fighting war effectively across all its domains, including cyber. At a Dec. 11 symposium, Air Combat Command chief Gen. Mark D. Kelly said he'd told 16AF commander Lt. Gen. Timothy D. Haugh to “Take all of us, whether we go willingly, or kicking and screaming, into the non-kinetic competition.” Much of the work of delivering data products to the Air Force will involve harnessing information it already has in its databases, and making them useful on a command level. Some of that work, as outlined in the solicitation, involves targeting products. “The contractor shall provide targeting SME support regarding the Joint and Air Force Targeting Enterprise (JTE/AFTE), and kinetic, Electronic Warfare (EW), Information Operations (IO), Space and Cyber targeting,” reads the solicitation. The contract is designed to support the 16th in its role as a “service cryptologic element,” or the formal mechanism by which signals intelligence components of the service work directly with the NSA. Another component of the FUSIONS contract is identifying and recommending “new or unexploited information systems,” as well as “unique friendly, enemy, or neutral information sources,” with the goal of turning that information into relevant and useful intelligence. This means, broadly, looking at new Internet-connected devices, tools, and networks, and making that information something troops at the tactical level can use. Vital to that intelligence collection and sharing is ensuring the data itself can be transmitted over existing DoD networks. https://breakingdefense.com/2021/02/air-force-awards-95-million-for-cyber-intelligence/

All news