April 16, 2020 | Local, Naval

Russia’s Arctic Agenda and the Role of Canada

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 51
By: Sergey Sukhankin
April 15, 2020 05:24 PM Age: 14 mins

New research (which includes two articles written by Russian experts) published by the prominent think tank the Canadian Global Affairs Institute has spurred interest and hopes in Russia's expert community about the possibility of normalizing ties between Russia and Canada through cooperation in the Arctic region (Russiancouncil.ru, April 3; Cgai.ca, accessed April 12). This cooperation could potentially be premised on two main pillars.

First would be the mutual rejection of “internationalization” of the Arctic. Both Canada and Russia—for whom the Arctic region is an issue of foreign policy (Russiancouncil.ru, July 1, 2019) —feel ill at ease with the increasing involvement of non-Arctic states in the region, particularly, China. Russian information outlets noted the level of distress when the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon completed its first-ever voyage through the Arctic Ocean off the coast of Canada, accumulating “a wealth of experience for Chinese ships going through the Northwest Passage in the future” (Regnum, September 17, 2017; see EDM, October 3, 2017).

Second, Moscow seeks to exploit regional frictions and disagreements between Canada and the United States (Pentagonus.ru, accessed April 10) to boost its own position/influence in the region. Russian sources recall the year 2010, when then–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly challenged Canada's stance on the status of the Northwest Passage, which Ottawa considers part of Canadian territory (Foreignpolicy.ru, February 20, 2015). In the past, both the Russian tone and general assessment of Canada's role in the Arctic were denigrating, claiming Ottawa lacked agency. Perhaps the clearest expression of this sentiment came from the director of the Institute of Strategic Planning and Forecasting, Professor Alexander Gusev, who, in 2015, declared that “they [Canada] are only performing the role assigned by the US” (Odnako.org, March 30, 2015). After 2016, however, Russia dramatically changed its coverage of the US-Canadian dispute in the Arctic region, with Moscow increasingly employing reconciliatory rhetoric toward Ottawa and employing ever more assertive public diplomacy tools.

One notable example of this new approach is Moscow's reliance on pro-Russian experts based in Canada. In 2016, speaking in Sochi, on the margins of that year's Valdai Club session, Professor Piotr Dutkiewicz (a former director of the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University, in Ottawa) stated, “[T]his area [the Arctic region] will be the first one where we will feel real changes in our relations... Arctic cooperation will become the focal point thanks to which our two sides [Canada and Russia] will be extending their areas of collaboration” (Izvestia, October 28, 2016). Moreover, as repeatedly stated by Federation Council member Igor Chernyshenko (a senator from Murmansk Oblast), the Arctic region could become a “bridge,” helping Canada and Russia overcome the existing difficulties in their bilateral ties. Last May, he announced, “[W]e invited them [the Canadian side] to return to a dialogue. We proposed holding a conference between Russian and Canadian universities in northwest Russia, maybe in Murmansk Oblast. They supported this idea” (TASS, May 25, 2019). Notably, the last such event was held in November 2014, in Canada, hosted by the aforementioned Carleton University.

In addition to trying to foster bilateral academic ties, Russia's outreach to Canada on Arctic issues involves sustained information campaigns via RT and similar multi-language information outlets with international reach. In particular, Russian propaganda narratives routinely overemphasize the extent of current US-Canadian disagreements in the Arctic. At the same time, foreign-audience-facing Kremlin-linked media outlets underscore the allegedly negative role of President Donald Trump (and his policies toward Canada) in aggravating the existing disputes. RT widely claimed that “after Trump's inauguration, he began pressing Ottawa on economic issues and extended claims on Canadian possessions in the Arctic region.” It also highlighted US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo's remarks suggesting that “Russia is not the only country with illegitimate claims [in the Arctic] ...the US has a lasting dispute with Canada over its claims on sovereignty over the Northwest Passage. Finally, RT's propaganda reporting also relied on a statement by Pavel Feldman, the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Moscow-based Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN). Feldman is quoted as saying, “[T]he US and Canada carry on a heated competition over the Arctic region; yet, publicly, these countries are trying to position themselves as partners” (RT, October 16, 2019).

In recent months, this increasing Russian attention to Canada as an Arctic power and a key element of regional stability and order has started to be expressed at the highest levels in Moscow. Poignantly, President Vladimir Putin declared in a public address at the start of this year that Russia “is open to cooperation with Canada on the basis of mutual respect and consideration of each other's interest.” Putin added, “[O]ur countries are neighbors in the Arctic region and bear joint responsibility for the development of this vast region, for preservation of the traditional lifestyle of its native populations and the careful treatment of its brittle ecosystem” (Vzglyad, February 5, 2020).

Such reconciliatory rhetoric should, however, be taken with a heavy dose of caution in Ottawa: from the earliest days of the Soviet Union, Moscow's stance on the Arctic region has been deliberately flexible and tightly premised on being able to demonstrate its military potential in the High North and to intimidate other regional players. The Russian Federation has increasingly undertaken the same policy course since 2014 (see EDM, April 9). Incidentally, on January 31, 2020, two Russian Tu-160 heavy strategic bombers approached Canadian airspace—maneuvers that the Russian Ministry of Defense explained away as “planned exercises” (Vpk.name, February 3). It is worth pointing out that the US North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is unable to identify and track Russian bombers of this type until they are close enough to launch missiles at targets on the continent.

Furthermore, it is worth keeping in mind that, in fact, Russia (not the US) is Canada's direct competitor when it comes to territorial claims in the Arctic (the Lomonosov Ridge)—a point explicitly corroborated by Russia's Arktika 2007 expedition, which explored this disputed undersea area and famously planted a Russian flag at the North Pole, on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean (Izvestia, August 3, 2007).

Lastly, it may be worth keeping an eye on one of the proposed amendments (soon to be officially adopted) to the Russian Constitution on the “prohibition of actions related to the alienation of Russian territory, or the propaganda thereof” (TASS, February 25). This amendment—reportedly drafted with predominantly Kaliningrad and Vladivostok in mind—is likely to also be applied to some Arctic territories that are of equally strategic interest to Canada.

https://jamestown.org/program/russias-arctic-agenda-and-the-role-of-canada/

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April 25, 2019 | Local, Aerospace

MQ-9B SkyGuardian proposed as the right choice for RPAS in Canada
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April 14, 2020 | Local, Land

ANALYSIS: Cloud lifted from GDLS Saudi deal, but future business uncertain: analyst
Canada's $14-billion deal to sell armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia is going ahead and will keep a London defence giant rolling, but some say questions remain about future business between General Dynamics Land Systems Canada (GDLS) and the desert kingdom. NORMAN DE BONO Canada's $14-billion deal to sell armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia is going ahead and will keep a London defence giant rolling, but some say questions remain about future business between General Dynamics Land Systems Canada (GDLS) and the desert kingdom. The federal government said it's lifting a moratorium on new permits for military exports to Saudi Arabia, a critical step for London since GDLS, with about 2,000 employees in London, has a nearly 40-year relationship supplying armoured vehicles to the Saudis. But Ottawa also said it's appointing an advisory panel of experts to review Canada's arms export process and to push for an international inspection for arms sales. That could threaten future business, warned analyst David Perry, vice-president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. The Canadian-Saudi deal, with GDLS at the centre, negotiated by the former Conservative government and inherited by the Liberal successor, had come under sharp attack, with some critics calling for it to be scrapped, amid concerns about Saudi Arabia's poor human rights record. “If I was a worker I would be tremendously relieved and happy they made the decision,” Perry said of the federal government. He stressed reviews of the contract determined there was no indication GDLS vehicles were involved in human rights violations. “This went back and forth for a few years, and the government reviewed and threatened to cancel this contract outright. I think there has been irreparable harm. If you're another country open to exports, they may be thinking twice about doing business with Canada,” said Perry. “They (Saudi Arabians) have options when it comes to sourcing. I think they may be thinking in the future about where they source (their military equipment).” Lifting the cloud from the Saudi deal comes at a critical time on the London business landscape, with the fallout of the coronavirus pandemic and the lockdowns that have brought new uncertainty for many employers. In clearing the air on the deal, the federal government also revealed it would have been on the hook for up to $14 billion if it had cancelled the contract to sell light armoured vehicles to the Saudis, a deal that dates to 2014. The review panel, however, poses a level of uncertainty in future business dealings, Perry noted. “A new export panel will offer another layer of review. I don't know how to interpret that. It depends on who is appointed to that panel,” he said. In 2018, after news broke that the Saudi government had ordered the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Trudeau Liberals announced a review of all Canada's existing arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Ottawa also slapped a moratorium on new export permits for shipments of military goods to Riyadh. Existing military contracts, such as the GDLS deal, were not affected by the moratorium. But in 2018 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly talked about trying to find a way to end shipments of armoured vehicles to Saudi Arabia. Thursday, Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the suspension of approval of new Saudi permits is now lifted. They cited a government review last September that found no credible evidence linking Canadian exports of military or other controlled goods to Saudi human rights violations. But the moratorium on trade with the Saudis has already affected the Canadian defence sector to the tune of about $2 billion, according to a memo sent to the foreign affairs minister from two top foreign affairs and international trade officials. “(Twenty) companies that have a history of exporting to KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) suggest that approximately $2 billion in trade has been affected since August 2018. A number of Canadian exporters to KSA have suspended their business development operations . . . The open-ended nature of Canada's moratorium on new export permits, and the lack of identified conditions that would allow a resumption of permit issuance, present a high commercial risk for Canadian companies,” the memo says. Perry, who shared the memo with The Free Press, said he has heard similar concerns from the Canadian defence sector. “I have spoken to businesses that have lost business opportunities” from the moratorium on arms trade with Saudis. “This is welcome news,” he added of the lifting of restrictions, “but the government has introduced uncertainty into Canadian defence industry and exports.” Political scientist Erika Simpson at Western University also questioned the role of the panel, saying there are few details about its authority and adding that only Global Affairs has the authority to impact trade agreements. She also questioned why the contract appears to have been reduced by $1 billion in value. When the Conservatives announced it in 2014, it was worth $15 billion. Ottawa now says it is a $14-billion contract. “I think $1 billion is a lot of money. What happened to $1 billion?” asked Simpson, an associate professor of international politics. “This is good news, but I want to know where the $1 billion went.” GDLS Canada declined comment Friday. Perry also questioned the timing of the announcement. With more than three million Canadians expected to be left unemployed due to the COVID-19 crisis, Ottawa could not jeopardize thousands of jobs across Canada, he said. “As important as this is in Southwestern Ontario, it is not just Southwestern Ontario,” he said. London Liberal MP Peter Fragiskatos downplayed down the idea the review panel could dampen further GDLS business. “I don't think so. This government is behind this contract, this workforce, 100 per cent. On the contrary, I would say a review is a good thing. It will bring greater transparency to the arms program. I welcome it,” the London North Centre MP said. He also stressed the Saudi deal is only about half complete, meaning about six more years of work may remain before there needs to be a discussion about future contracts. “I am pleased to say the least. It was in the making for some time, but it is a very good result not just for the company and its workers, but for the city,” said Fragiskatos. It's too soon to draw conclusions about the future of work by GDLS for the Saudis, since that depends largely on who is at the table negotiating future deals, said Bill Pettipas, former president of GM Defence, which General Dynamics bought and renamed. Pettipas bargained several arms contracts with foreign powers, including a multi-billion dollar deal with the U.S. army to supply it with Stryker armoured vehicles. “It depends on individuals, on relationships. It will get resolved. It will normalize eventually. That relationship has been going on since the early 1980s,” said Pettipas. “Time takes care of things.” Officials with Unifor Local 27, the union for many GDLS workers in London, couldn't be reached for comment Friday. Unifor's national office declined comment. https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/analysis-cloud-lifted-from-gdls-saudi-deal-but-future-business-uncertain-analyst

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