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Russia’s Arctic Agenda and the Role of Canada
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 17 Issue: 51
By: Sergey Sukhankin
April 15, 2020 05:24 PM Age: 14 mins
New research (which includes two articles written by Russian experts) published by the prominent think tank the Canadian Global Affairs Institute has spurred interest and hopes in Russia's expert community about the possibility of normalizing ties between Russia and Canada through cooperation in the Arctic region (Russiancouncil.ru, April 3; Cgai.ca, accessed April 12). This cooperation could potentially be premised on two main pillars.
First would be the mutual rejection of “internationalization” of the Arctic. Both Canada and Russia—for whom the Arctic region is an issue of foreign policy (Russiancouncil.ru, July 1, 2019) —feel ill at ease with the increasing involvement of non-Arctic states in the region, particularly, China. Russian information outlets noted the level of distress when the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon completed its first-ever voyage through the Arctic Ocean off the coast of Canada, accumulating “a wealth of experience for Chinese ships going through the Northwest Passage in the future” (Regnum, September 17, 2017; see EDM, October 3, 2017).
Second, Moscow seeks to exploit regional frictions and disagreements between Canada and the United States (Pentagonus.ru, accessed April 10) to boost its own position/influence in the region. Russian sources recall the year 2010, when then–Secretary of State Hillary Clinton publicly challenged Canada's stance on the status of the Northwest Passage, which Ottawa considers part of Canadian territory (Foreignpolicy.ru, February 20, 2015). In the past, both the Russian tone and general assessment of Canada's role in the Arctic were denigrating, claiming Ottawa lacked agency. Perhaps the clearest expression of this sentiment came from the director of the Institute of Strategic Planning and Forecasting, Professor Alexander Gusev, who, in 2015, declared that “they [Canada] are only performing the role assigned by the US” (Odnako.org, March 30, 2015). After 2016, however, Russia dramatically changed its coverage of the US-Canadian dispute in the Arctic region, with Moscow increasingly employing reconciliatory rhetoric toward Ottawa and employing ever more assertive public diplomacy tools.
One notable example of this new approach is Moscow's reliance on pro-Russian experts based in Canada. In 2016, speaking in Sochi, on the margins of that year's Valdai Club session, Professor Piotr Dutkiewicz (a former director of the Institute of European and Russian Studies at Carleton University, in Ottawa) stated, “[T]his area [the Arctic region] will be the first one where we will feel real changes in our relations... Arctic cooperation will become the focal point thanks to which our two sides [Canada and Russia] will be extending their areas of collaboration” (Izvestia, October 28, 2016). Moreover, as repeatedly stated by Federation Council member Igor Chernyshenko (a senator from Murmansk Oblast), the Arctic region could become a “bridge,” helping Canada and Russia overcome the existing difficulties in their bilateral ties. Last May, he announced, “[W]e invited them [the Canadian side] to return to a dialogue. We proposed holding a conference between Russian and Canadian universities in northwest Russia, maybe in Murmansk Oblast. They supported this idea” (TASS, May 25, 2019). Notably, the last such event was held in November 2014, in Canada, hosted by the aforementioned Carleton University.
In addition to trying to foster bilateral academic ties, Russia's outreach to Canada on Arctic issues involves sustained information campaigns via RT and similar multi-language information outlets with international reach. In particular, Russian propaganda narratives routinely overemphasize the extent of current US-Canadian disagreements in the Arctic. At the same time, foreign-audience-facing Kremlin-linked media outlets underscore the allegedly negative role of President Donald Trump (and his policies toward Canada) in aggravating the existing disputes. RT widely claimed that “after Trump's inauguration, he began pressing Ottawa on economic issues and extended claims on Canadian possessions in the Arctic region.” It also highlighted US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo's remarks suggesting that “Russia is not the only country with illegitimate claims [in the Arctic] ...the US has a lasting dispute with Canada over its claims on sovereignty over the Northwest Passage. Finally, RT's propaganda reporting also relied on a statement by Pavel Feldman, the deputy director of the Institute for Strategic Studies and Forecasts at the Moscow-based Peoples' Friendship University of Russia (RUDN). Feldman is quoted as saying, “[T]he US and Canada carry on a heated competition over the Arctic region; yet, publicly, these countries are trying to position themselves as partners” (RT, October 16, 2019).
In recent months, this increasing Russian attention to Canada as an Arctic power and a key element of regional stability and order has started to be expressed at the highest levels in Moscow. Poignantly, President Vladimir Putin declared in a public address at the start of this year that Russia “is open to cooperation with Canada on the basis of mutual respect and consideration of each other's interest.” Putin added, “[O]ur countries are neighbors in the Arctic region and bear joint responsibility for the development of this vast region, for preservation of the traditional lifestyle of its native populations and the careful treatment of its brittle ecosystem” (Vzglyad, February 5, 2020).
Such reconciliatory rhetoric should, however, be taken with a heavy dose of caution in Ottawa: from the earliest days of the Soviet Union, Moscow's stance on the Arctic region has been deliberately flexible and tightly premised on being able to demonstrate its military potential in the High North and to intimidate other regional players. The Russian Federation has increasingly undertaken the same policy course since 2014 (see EDM, April 9). Incidentally, on January 31, 2020, two Russian Tu-160 heavy strategic bombers approached Canadian airspace—maneuvers that the Russian Ministry of Defense explained away as “planned exercises” (Vpk.name, February 3). It is worth pointing out that the US North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is unable to identify and track Russian bombers of this type until they are close enough to launch missiles at targets on the continent.
Furthermore, it is worth keeping in mind that, in fact, Russia (not the US) is Canada's direct competitor when it comes to territorial claims in the Arctic (the Lomonosov Ridge)—a point explicitly corroborated by Russia's Arktika 2007 expedition, which explored this disputed undersea area and famously planted a Russian flag at the North Pole, on the bottom of the Arctic Ocean (Izvestia, August 3, 2007).
Lastly, it may be worth keeping an eye on one of the proposed amendments (soon to be officially adopted) to the Russian Constitution on the “prohibition of actions related to the alienation of Russian territory, or the propaganda thereof” (TASS, February 25). This amendment—reportedly drafted with predominantly Kaliningrad and Vladivostok in mind—is likely to also be applied to some Arctic territories that are of equally strategic interest to Canada.
https://jamestown.org/program/russias-arctic-agenda-and-the-role-of-canada/
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Incoming AIAC chair discusses aerospace vision
by Chris Thatcher As Members of Parliament return to the House of Commons this week, aerospace eyes will be on the cabinet ministers and MPs most likely to support a new vision for the industry. With the return of Marc Garneau to Transport Canada, Navdeep Bains to Innovation, Science and Industry, Harjit Sajjan to National Defence and Mary Ng to Small Business and Export Promotion, and the introduction of Anita Anand to Public Services and Procurement and Carla Qualtrough to Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion, the government's front benches include ministers well acquainted with key issues that need to be addressed if Canada is to retain its position as a leading global aerospace nation. Last fall, the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada (AIAC) asked Jean Charest, a former premier of Quebec and deputy prime minister of Canada, to lead a cross-country discussion on the sector's future and a possible course forward. His ensuing report, “Vision 2025,” delivered at the Paris Air Show in June, offered recommendations centred on six core themes: expanding the skilled workforce; growing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs); promoting innovation; investing in Transport Canada's aircraft certification and regulation capacity; sustaining Canadian leadership in space; and better leveraging defence procurement to drive industry growth. The recommendations were drawn from five months of meetings with industry executives, provincial premiers and their economic development ministers, federal ministers, opposition parties, academia and the general public. “Our goal was to re-start the discussion between the industry and its partners in government, education, research and the business community,” Patrick Mann, president of Patlon Aircraft & Industries and the former chair of AIAC, reminded the sector during the recent Canadian Aerospace Summit in Ottawa. “It has been a truly pan-Canadian event that has reached all through the industry . . . [and] into every level of government.” If Charest's report provides a guide for how to address some of the challenges generated by a multitude of countries and technology companies now seeking to gain a larger footprint in aerospace, the task of implementing it rests in part with Keith Donaldson. Donaldson assumed the chair of AIAC during the summit and acknowledged the report will drive much of the association's activities over the next 12 months. “I'm all in on Vision 2025,” he told Skies. “This is the time to re-engage as an industry, to recognize that [aerospace] is a jewel we have in Canada. It's R-and-D intensive, it's pan-Canadian, it has the highest input for STEM (science, technology, math and engineering)-type jobs, men and women – let's grow this. We need the support and partnership of the federal government. That is how we combat [other entrants].” A chartered accountant by training who previously worked with KPMG, Donaldson is vice-president of APEX Industries, a machining, components, subassembly and structures manufacturer in Moncton, N.B. Over his 15 years with the company, he served as president of the New Brunswick Aerospace and Defense Association and co-founded the Atlantic Canada Aerospace and Defence Association. He's also been a fixture on AIAC's technical committees, from audit and finance, to small business, defence procurement and supply chain access. That experience could be crucial, as much of the heavy lifting to make the report's recommendations reality will come from the technical committees. Under Mann's leadership, AIAC spent part of the past year restructuring the committees to align with the direction of Vision 2025. “We spent a lot of time . . . making sure their mandates were going to match the recommendations,” said Donaldson. “We wanted to make sure the chairs were well aligned. [They] are some of the heavy hitters in the industry, from Bombardier, UTC, Cascade, Collins Aerospace . . . [They have] industry interest, company interest and personal interest for the success of these recommendations.” Winning the skills battle Because of ministerial familiarity with the report's recommendations, AIAC will be hoping it can move quickly to implement some of them. The appointment of Qualtrough, who has spoken at previous AIAC conferences, to a portfolio that will focus on the sector's top priority of skills development is seen as “an early win,” Donaldson noted. “When AIAC did the industry engagement, it was very evident that to maintain and grow, we have to win the skills battle,” he said. “A lot of the other recommendations are going to move forward, but we have to solve the skills one. Failure is not an option here.” Other sectors are going to be competing for the same STEM talent, but the Vision 2025 blueprint might give aerospace a leg up with government, he suggested. That means offering ideas not only to retain and retrain the current workforce where necessary, but also to recruit and support more women in the sector, attract First Nations, and collaborate with immigration initiatives. “It is not going to be a one size fits all. We are going to have to work on each one of those areas,” said Donaldson. For APEX, a medium-sized business of about 250 people, 70 of whom work specifically in aerospace, finding and retaining talent is the issue that keeps most senior managers awake at night, he added. The association will also be looking for quick progress on some of the recommendations aimed at strengthening the capacity of Transport Canada. “They are already a world class organization. We are not starting from zero on that one,” noted Donaldson. However, much of the early effort will go to growing SMEs, which account for over 95 per cent of the aerospace sector. It's terrain Donaldson knows well and believes can be improved through initiatives to build on government programs that are already in place. “We are going to be taking what's already working and say, we want to expand some of these programs. That is going to give us some early wins,” he said. One possible tool could be the expansion of Quebec's MACH program, which has provided mentorship from OEMs and Tier 1s to SMEs to help improve business processes and make the transition to digital systems. “From an SME perspective, that program is one of the ways to go because it involves a larger company, the SME, the province, and support nationally,” observed Donaldson. Support and mentoring from larger businesses for digitization and best cyber practices are a critical need for smaller companies, he added, noting that many capture “thousands of pieces of data every day” and don't make as much use of the information as they should. “The new protocol for Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification in the U.S. is going to be applied to every single company in aerospace and defence, no matter where you are,” he said. “[These are areas] where a MACH-type program could hugely benefit SMEs across the country.” He cautioned, though, that while the emphasis must be on growing SMEs, those small companies often rely on strong OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and Tier 1 suppliers for their export opportunities. In APEX's case, that's about 50 per cent of the business. “We need to keep the OEMs and large Tier 1s healthy in Canada,” he said. “The MACH [programs] of the world are only going to work well if Pratt & Whitney, Bombardier, Bell, IMP, Magellan, if they grow and invest in Canada. That goes back to a part of the overall Vision 2025.” During separate addresses to the aerospace summit, both Donaldson and Mann appealed to fellow executives to get involved in the process. Committees are the “place where our company can impact and shape the issues that are important to our business,” observed Mann. “There is a lot to making Vision 2025 a reality . . . and we need everyone's help to do that, to make sure aerospace is a key part of our new government's new strategy.” AIAC will continue to lobby the federal and provincial governments on the Vision 2025 recommendations, especially the 48 MPs whose ridings including substantial aerospace activity, and will serve as secretariat to a newly re-created all-party aerospace caucus in Ottawa. Speed is of the essence said Donaldson, noting the pace with which other jurisdictions are growing their aerospace capabilities. “We do not have the luxury [of time],” he said. “It's not like we have Vision 2025 and then there's a whole other plan. Vision 2025 is going to drive the industry. Period.” https://www.skiesmag.com/news/incoming-aiac-chair-discusses-aerospace-vision