May 4, 2020 | International, Land

Russian Arms Production Slowed by Coronavirus, Analysts Find

A report drawing on anonymized phone data, and other open-source information belies Vladimir Putin's everything's-under-control message.

Many Russian arms factories are slowing their production amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a report from geospatial analytics company Orbital Insight, obtained exclusively by Defense One. The revelations further undermine Moscow's attempts to project an image of a government in control of the coronavirus outbreak in its country.

Among the affected firms:

Salyut, which makes parts for Russia's Su-27 and China's Chengdu J-10 fighter jets, has 2,000 fewer people in the factory, as indicated by cell phone pings.
Uralvagonzavod, which makes parts for the T-90 and the T-14 Armata tanks, had 3,500 fewer people.
Hydromash, which makes landing gear parts, hydraulics, and cylinders for the Su-30MK and Su-34 fighters, has more than 2,000 fewer people.

Not every Russian firm has been visibly affected. The Orbital Insight report saw no evidence of a productivity dropoff at the Kazan Aircraft Plant, which makes parts for strategic bomber aircraft.

The analysts applied machine learning and data science to anonymous phone data obtained from a variety of partners. Such data can allow researchers to track large-scale human movement trends in close to real-time, which can “inform policymakers as to the effect of a particular restriction — or the impact/consequence of a breach of the same,” said Robert Cardillo, an Orbital Insight advisor who once ran the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.

Researchers use the data to establish a baseline of activity, then to look for aberrations and disruptions, Cardillo told Defense One in an email.

“In the intelligence profession, job one is to understand normal so one can have any chance of detecting abnormal. [Orbital Insight] senses global activity — or lack thereof — in a way that enables an understanding of the baseline pattern of life. That foundational understanding enables not just the fact of a change in that pattern but to — more importantly — infer meaning,” he wrote.

The report offers detail about slowdowns beyond what Russian media has already revealed, said Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at CNA, a nonprofit research and analysis organization in Arlington, Virginia. Kofman said he was surprised at the company's ability to obtain Russian cell phone data, which is required by law to be stored on servers in Russia.

“The fact that this company is able to aggregate anonymous cell use data is a real boon for those interested in the level of productivity and output in Russia's military-industrial complex,” he said.

Overall, Kofman said, he expects “a significant drop off in production for at least two months in the Russia defense industry as a result of COVID-19 measures, but it will be highly uneven depending on the region and assembly plant/shipyard.”

The Russian government has tried to project an image of a country little affected by the coronavirus. In March and the beginning of April, the government flew protective equipment and medical supplies to Italy and to the United States in what many call a propaganda ploy. But government officials now acknowledge that they are experiencing a shortage of protective equipment, The country has confirmed that it has more than 100,000 confirmed cases.

Babel Street, a data analytics company that specializes in natural language and sentiment data, says the government's initial steps were popular with Russians. But analysis of Russian-language social media posts on platforms like VK and local blogs suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin's image has been slipping.

“There was a ton of positive sentiment early on. People were buying the government line that Russia was here to help the world. I think that things really began to sour when they saw friends and neighbors coming down with this disease,” said McDaniel Wicker, Babel Street's vice president of business development.

Russians are growing increasingly anxious with lockdown conditions, Wicker said. An April 20 street protest in Vladikavkaz could be a sign of civil unrest to come. “We are able to get a lot of insights from some of our data sources showing social unrest popping up in some of those areas...before it began to pop up in the English language press,” he said.

“There's a narrative in Western media that Putin is all-powerful,” he said. “This shows that to be a misconception. The state does not have infinite means, information, or even control over its population. Given the right circumstances, there could be significant change in Russia.”

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/05/russian-arms-production-slowed-coronavirus-analysts-find/165071

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January 9, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Turkish ‘brain drain’: Why are defense industry officials ditching their jobs in Turkey for work abroad?
By: Burak Ege Bekdil ANKARA, Turkey — Turkey's procurement authorities are working to identify why some of the industry's most talented individuals are migrating to Western countries — an exodus that could stall several indigenous programs. Turkey's procurement authority, the Presidency of Defence Industries — also known as SSB and which directly reports to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — conducted a survey to better understand the migration. A parliamentary motion revealed that in recent months a total of 272 defense industryofficials, mostly senior engineers, fled Turkey for new jobs abroad, with the Netherlands, the United States and Germany topping the list, respectively. Other recipient countries are Britain, Canada, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, Poland, France, Finland, Japan, Thailand, Qatar, Switzerland and Ireland, according to the SSB's internal study. The companies affected by the exodus are state-controlled entities: defense electronics specialist Aselsan, Turkey's largest defense firm; military software concern Havelsan; missile-maker Roketsan; defense technologies firm STM; Turkish Aerospace Industries; and SDT. Findings among those who left and responded to the survey include: 41 percent are in the 26-30 age group. “This highlights a trend among the relatively young professionals to seek new opportunities abroad,” one SSB official noted. 40 percent have graduate degrees; 54 percent have postgraduate degrees; and 6 percent have doctorates or higher degrees. 59 percent have more than four years of experience in the Turkish industry. The largest group among those who left (26 percent) cited “limited chance of promotion and professional progress” as the primary reason to seek jobs in foreign companies. Other reasons cited include lack of equal opportunities in promotion (14 percent); low salaries (10 percent); and discrimination, mobbing and injustice at work (10 percent). 60 percent said they found jobs at foreign defense companies after they applied for vacancies. 61 percent are engineers and 21 percent are industry researchers. Among the respondents' expectations before they would consider returning to Turkish jobs were higher salaries, better working conditions, full use of annual leave, professional management and support from top management for further academic work. They also want the political situation in Turkey to normalize and for employees to win social rights in line with European Union standards. They also want to guarantee there won't be employee discrimination according to political beliefs, life styles and religious faith. They added that mobbing should stop and that employees be offered equal opportunities. A recent article in The New York Times, citing the Turkish Statistical Institute, said more than a quarter-million Turks emigrated in 2017, an increase of 42 percent over 2016, when nearly 178,000 citizens left the country. The number of Turks applying for asylum worldwide jumped by 10,000 in 2017 to more than 33,000. “The flight of people, talent and capital is being driven by a powerful combination of factors that have come to define life under Mr. Erdogan and that his opponents increasingly despair is here to stay," according to The New York Times. "They include fear of political persecution, terrorism, a deepening distrust of the judiciary and the arbitrariness of the rule of law, and a deteriorating business climate, accelerated by worries that Mr. Erdogan is unsoundly manipulating management of the economy to benefit himself and his inner circle.” One senior engineer who left his Turkish company for a job with a non-Turkish, European business told Defense News: “I know several colleagues who want to leave but have not yet found the right jobs. I expect the brain drain to gain pace in the next years, depending on Western companies' capacity to employ more Turkish talent.” https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2019/01/08/turkish-brain-drain-why-are-defense-industry-officials-ditching-their-jobs-in-turkey-for-work-abroad
March 14, 2024 | International, Aerospace

Exclusive: European regulator says it would pull Boeing approval if needed
June 25, 2019 | International, Aerospace

US drone maker senses a leg up in Europe
By: Sebastian Sprenger PARIS — U.S. drone-maker General Atomics looks to get a foothold in the European market by touting the promise of smooth civilian-airspace integration of its aircraft by militaries there. The company considers the United Kingdom, with its Protector program of 20 or so planned aircraft, as the launch customer for the MQ-9B SkyGuardian, a successor to the Reaper. The medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) drones come with safety features that executives at this year's Paris Air Show said will enable a so-called military-type certification by the British authorities in the summer of 2023 — the final step toward allowing the drone to fly routinely alongside civilian air traffic. Belgium also has gained U.S. approval to buy four of the aircraft, complete with a detect-and-avoid suite that can alert the system whenever its flight path risks hitting another aircraft, according to a March 26 announcement by the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency. That technology, along with a host of technologies for safe operations that have long been standard in manned aviation, is still considered something of a holy grail in the drone business. With unmanned aircraft expected to reach deeper into military and civilian life in the coming years, manufacturers on both sides of the Atlantic have been working feverishly to construct their products with requisite safety certifications in mind. General Atomics' sales pitch is perhaps indicative of an industry where the potential for airspace integration is now taking an equal seat to reconnaissance capabilities and combat punch. The American company can be expected to tread on manufacturers' toes in Europe, where vendors are shaping the evolving regulatory landscape of the European Union and member states to ensure compliance with all expected safety requirements. “We believe we should be there first,” General Atomics President David Alexander told reporters at a briefing during the air show. Being first with a certified drone, he noted, would also open vast potential of the commercial market. But questions remain. Most importantly, issue experts said, it is unclear if the European authorities will honor whatever progress in safety certifications the MQ-9B has made in the eyes of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. Company officials told Defense News they try to keep their fingers at the pulse of the relevant policymaking processes on the continent, putting them at the same tables as suppliers in the European industry, like Airbus, Hensoldt or Leonardo. The American firm recently worked with the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Center, or NLR, to simulate a SkyGuardian flying in European airspace. “During the first simulations performed in May, we subjected air traffic controllers to many contingency procedures ranging from engine failure to loss-of-link between the pilot and the remotely piloted aircraft,” Emmanuel Sunil, an NLR project manager, said in a June 18 statement by the research center. “The results indicate that the new procedures that we are developing will make it possible for MALE RPA to fly safely and efficiently in civil European airspace along with other manned air traffic.” https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/paris-air-show/2019/06/21/us-drone-maker-senses-a-leg-up-in-europe/

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Russian Arms Production Slowed by Coronavirus, Analysts Find

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