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December 5, 2019 | International, Aerospace

Military/Commercial Avionics Outlook Strong, Deloitte Says

By Frank Wolfe

The military and commercial outlook for avionics sales is strong, according to the author of a new Deloitte report, the 2020 Global Aerospace and Defense Industry Outlook.

"The outlook for the aerospace avionics market is positive with good growth expected over the next few years, primarily due to the strong aircraft order book," Robin Lineberger, the leader of Deloitte global aerospace and defense, wrote in an email to Avionics International.

"Moreover, all the major global militaries are increasing their spending on acquiring advanced military aircraft, further driving the growth for avionics," Lineberger wrote.

Such aircraft include the Japanese F-3 twin-engine stealth fighter by Mitsubishi to replace the country's single-engine Mitsubishi F-2 jets and to complement the country's Lockheed Martin F-35s; the European Future Combat Air System (FCAS); and the United States Air Force's sixth generation fighter.

In June at the Paris Air Show, Dassault Aviation unveiled an FCAS mock up, as government and company officials signed an FCAS Industry Agreement on Demonstrator Programs.

The latter accord covers the main components of FCAS: a new generation, manned fighter; support "remote carrier" drones; and an Air Combat Cloud to integrate sensors. FCAS is to replace Dassault's Rafale fighter and the Airbus/BAE Systems/Leonardo-built Eurofighter.

During the unveiling of the mock up, French President Emmanuel Macron said that he favors German-French-Spanish cooperation on FCAS with the British, which are developing their own advanced fighter through the BAE Systems Tempest program.

In early October, the Air Force officially stood up a new program executive office to lead Digital Century Series, which will look to rapidly develop and field new aircraft beginning with the service's sixth-generation fighter. Last week, Will Roper, the Air Force's service acquisition executive, said that the new Digital Century Series initiative will look to improve integration of emerging technologies by buying smaller quantities of new fighter jets, potentially from multiple companies at a time.

“Demand for military equipment is on the rise as governments across the globe focus on military modernization, given increasing global security concerns,” according to the new Deloitte report. “The uncertainty and sustained complexity of the international security environment worldwide is likely to boost global defense spending over the next five years.”

In 2020, global defense spending will reach around $1.9 trillion, driven mainly by the U.S. but also countries such as China, Russia and India, the 14-page report says. It adds that NATO members in Europe, under pressure from the U.S., are also increasing defense spending to hit a target of 2 percent of GDP, and tensions in the Middle East are also driving demand for defense equipment.

By 2023, global defense spending is expected to be $2.1 trillion, Deloitte said.

Commercial and general aviation avionics sales are also expected to grow.

"Demand for new and advanced flight capabilities from airlines and small general aviation aircraft owners to make flight operations more efficient and safer will continue to drive demand for commercial avionics," Lineberger wrote in his email to Avionics International. "Moreover, significant investments will be made on avionics because of government-mandated upgrades, for instance, the mandates for Automatic Dependent Surveillance/Broadcast capability (ADS-B), Head-Up Displays (HUD) and Controller/Pilot Datalink Communications equipment (CPDLC). However, there are some challenges which include longer product development cycle that leads to increased development costs."

Urban air mobility, electric propulsion and fully automated flight decks are technology trends to watch in years ahead, according to the Deloitte report.

"Although commercial aircraft manufacturers are increasingly relying on automated flight controls, including automated cockpits, the commercial aerospace sector is aiming to transition to fully automated flight decks," Lineberger wrote in his email. "Such a transition will likely reduce the number of crew members in the cockpit, resulting in lower costs for airlines. Moreover, automated flight decks would also address the growing pilot shortage issue currently faced by the aviation industry, which will likely be accentuated in the future as the commercial aircraft fleet continues to grow."

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2019/12/04/military-commercial-avionics-outlook-strong-deloitte-says/

On the same subject

  • Did F-35 Testing for Extreme Weather Conditions Fall Short?

    June 21, 2019 | International, Aerospace

    Did F-35 Testing for Extreme Weather Conditions Fall Short?

    By Oriana Pawlyk SALON DU BOURGET, PARIS -- More than 400 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters are operating from 17 bases worldwide. From the near-Arctic region of Ørland, Norway, to a recent deployment in the Middle East, the fifth-generation jet is expanding its reach. But a recent news report shows that weather conditions have some effect on the Pentagon's stealthy fifth-gen fighter, raising concerns about its performance in extreme climate locations. In a recent Defense News report series, the outlet obtained documents showing that cold weather triggered a battery sensor in an F-35 Lightning II in Alaska. While the battery was not affected, the weather "overwhelm[ed] the battery heater blanket" that protects it, prompting the sensor to issue a warning and causing the pilot to abort his mission and land immediately, Defense News said. "We have already developed an update to the software and the battery's heater control system to resolve this issue, and this updated software is available for users today to load on their aircraft in the event they will be conducting extreme cold weather operations," Greg Ulmer, vice president of Lockheed's F-35 aircraft production business, said in an interview with Military.com at the Paris Air Show, adding the update will be in new planes by 2021. The U.S. military anticipated taking the Lockheed Martin-made F-35 around the world, with partners and allies flying the plane in both hot and cold regions, including some that are changing. "The [F-22 Raptor] and plenty of other aircraft have flown out [to Alaska] just fine for decades," Rebecca Grant of IRIS Independent Research told Defense News. Grant is a former director of the Mitchell Institute for Airpower Studies at the Air Force Association. "The F-35 should have had all that sorted out in the climatic lab." Ulmer, however, said all necessary steps were taken in lab testing, and the issue identified was a normal part of the design and development process. "You do the best you can relative to the engineering, understanding of the environment, to design the part. And then you actually perform, and [you realize] your model was off a little bit, so you have to tweak the design ... to account for it," Ulmer said. An F-35A from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, was on static display here during the show. "We're confident in the F-35s performance in all weather conditions," he said. The battery issue was first discovered during extreme cold weather testing at -30 degrees and below at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, in February 2018, he added. Ulmer explained there are various tests points done before the plane heads to the McKinley Lab at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, for robust experiments. The lab is responsible for high-range weather testing of military and commercial aircraft, munitions and weapons. The lab's refrigeration chamber can go as low as -70 degrees, lab chief Dwayne Bell told Military.com during a visit to the facility in 2017. He said at the time that the F-35 program had been one of the most expensive programs tested in the lab to date. There's a wide range of testing costs, but they average roughly $25,000 a day, he said. It cost about $7 million to test the Marine Corps' B-model from the Patuxent River Integrated Test Force, Maryland, over a six-month period, Bell said. The Lightning II was put through major weather testing -- the lab can do everything but lightning strikes and tornadoes -- such as wind, solar radiation, fog, humidity, rain intrusion/ingestion, freezing rain, icing cloud, icing build-up, vortex icing and snow. It handled temperatures ranging from 120 degrees Fahrenheit to -40 degrees, officials said in 2017. But even testing at McKinley is limiting, Ulmer said. "What doesn't happen is that they don't stay there a long time, so once we released [Block] 3F [software] capability, now the operational fleet can actually" test new extremes, he said, referring to both speed and temperature changes. Defense News also found that supersonic speeds caused "bubbling and blistering" on the JSF's low-observable stealth coating, and that hot environments impeded sufficient engine thrust to vertically land the Marine variant. "So they take it" to new environments "and they expose it more than flight test exposed the airplane. I'm an old flight test guy. You expect to learn in the operational environment more than you do in the [developmental test] environment because you don't necessarily fly the airplane [in that environment] all the time," Ulmer said. "So we learned a little bit, and you refine the design, and you solve it," he said, adding that the design and maintenance tweaks are ongoing. "The probability of the issue reoccuring on aircraft in the operational fleet is very low and with minimal impact to safety of flight or operational performance." Thirteen Category 1 deficiencies were found and reported by operators, according to the for-official-use-only documents Defense News obtained. Cat 1 is a label for problems that would directly impact safety or the mission. Those ranged from coating fixes; pressure anomalies in the cockpit that gave pilots ear and sinus pain; and washed-out imagery in the helmet-mounted display, among others. The Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps each fly a variant of the aircraft designed for different scenarios, from landing on conventional runways on land, to catching arresting cables on aircraft carriers, to landing like a helicopter on amphibious assault ships. Responding to the Defense News article series, Lockheed Martin said each deficiency "is well understood, already resolved or on a near-term path to resolution." "We've worked collaboratively with our customers, and we are fully confident in the F-35's performance and the solutions in place to address each of the items identified," the company said in a statement June 12. Growing pains with new planes and weapons programs are common. But the F-35 program has been under scrutiny since its inception, mainly for cost-effectiveness and functionality. A new estimate suggests that operating and supporting fighters for the next 60-plus years will cost the government $1.196 trillion. The older F-22 Raptor has had similar issues, especially with its stealth coating, which officials have said is more cumbersome to fix than the F-35, which was built with a more functional and durable coating in mind. "The [low-observable] system has significantly improved on the F-35 when compared to the F-22," Ulmer said Tuesday. "That's all lessons learned from F-22, applied to F-35." https://www.military.com/daily-news/2019/06/20/did-f-35-testing-extreme-weather-conditions-fall-short.html

  • Italy says it will be equal partner in jet fighter project with UK, Japan | Reuters

    September 24, 2023 | International, Aerospace

    Italy says it will be equal partner in jet fighter project with UK, Japan | Reuters

    Italy said on Saturday it will be an equal partner in the next-generation fighter program with Britain and Japan, as further talks are still underway on the project, including on where to base its headquarters.

  • Reform efforts in South Korea create ecosystem for defense industry growth

    August 17, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

    Reform efforts in South Korea create ecosystem for defense industry growth

    By: Mike Yeo MELBOURNE, Australia — South Korea has over the past decade become a defense industry powerhouse in its own right, and it's seeking to widen its reach, with progress in international markets in recent years marking the maturity of its defense articles. This year's Defense News Top 100 list of the biggest defense companies in the world features four South Korean businesses. They are Hanwha (ranked 32rd), Korea Aerospace Industries (55th), LIG Nex1 (68th) and Hyundai Rotem Company (95th), all of which made last year's list. Continued reform The strong performance of South Korean defense companies comes in the wake of a series of reforms over the past decade, with the latest designed to consolidate industrial gains and create momentum for growth. The defense industry reforms are part of President Moon Jae-in's Defense Reform 2.0 program announced in 2018 — a complement to efforts seeking to create a slimmer, yet more efficient South Korean military that is less reliant on foreign defense technology. The push for further self-reliance is most prominent in Korea Aerospace Industries' KF-X program. KAI is developing a next-generation fighter for the South Korean Air Force. Although an American GE F414 turbofan will power the aircraft, its avionics will primarily be indigenous. These include the active electronically scanned array radar under development by Hanwha and the country's Agency for Defense Development, with support and some components supplied by Israel's Elbit Systems. Defense Reform 2.0 also puts emphasis on defense industry investment, and it comes as little surprise that the domstic market still takes up the biggest share of the pie where sales are concerned, backed up by the steady growth in defense spending: South Korea's defense budget grew 20 percent from 2009 to 2017, reaching $43 billion. Export success The reform program also places an increased priority on defense exports. The country is already successful in this area, with research by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank showing the country was the 11th biggest arms supplier in the world in 2017, with sales totaling $5.5 billion. In a further indication of how much South Korea's industry has grown, SIPRI also noted in a 2018 report that the country's defense exports grew 94 percent in the 10 years prior, a growth figure only bettered by Turkey for the same period. This growth has been underpinned by two of the highest-profile South Korean defense exports in the past decade: the KAI T-50 Golden Eagle family of trainer and light combat aircraft, and the Hanwha K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzer. The T-50 was earmarked by the Air Force as its mainstay advanced trainer and light combat aircraft. Despite losing a number of trainer competitions, including in Poland, Singapore and the United States, the Golden Eagle has since scored a number of notable contracts for export. Compared to its rivals in the trainer market, such as the Leonardo M-346 and the Boeing T-7, the main draw of the T-50 family is its combat capability in the form of the TA-50 and FA-50 equipped with sophisticated combat capabilities in the form of radars and precision weapons employment capability. This makes the aircraft attractive to nations unable to afford a high-end trainer with a light attack capability, and the list of the type's customers bears this out, with Indonesia, Iraq, the Philippines and Thailand operating the type in their respective air forces. The Philippine Air Force used its FA-50PH fleet to attack Islamic State militants in the southern part of the country in 2018. Meanwhile, Hanwha's K9 Thunder has carved a niche for itself in the global market for self-propelled howitzers. The 52-caliber, 155mm system has been selected by a number of NATO nations, beating out the similar Panzerhaubitze 2000 by Germany's Rheinmetall in Estonia, Finland and Norway. Turkey is building the K9 under license as the T-155 Firtina. The system has also been selected for license production by India and Poland, and had previously been selected by Australia in the early part of the 2010s only to be canceled following budget issues caused by the global financial crisis. Hanwha is also one of two companies left in the running to supply the Australian Army with a new infantry fighting vehicle. The AS21 Redback, which is based on the K21 vehicle operated by the South Korean Army, is to take part in an evaluation program against the Rheinmetall KF41 Lynx to supply 450 vehicles to replace M113 armored personnel carriers. The evaluation will see three of each vehicle delivered to Australia for testing, with the first two Redbacks due to reach Australia at the end of August, having left South Korea by ship late last month. Post-pandemic support Like much the rest of the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit South Korea hard, though the worst appears to be over for the country. The local defense industry was forced to adjust financially and operationally, and it remains unclear how revenue will be hit by the events of 2020. The pandemic has claimed at least one sale for the South Korean defense industry, with Argentina, which had appeared set to be the next customer for the T-50 family, deciding in April to put off the acquisition indefinitely. The South American country is yet to sign a contract, despite choosing the aircraft for purchase in July 2019. However, the South Korean government is not waiting for foreign action. Defense Minister Jeong Kyeong-doo has unveiled plans for the country to spend more on locally produced defense articles, partly as a move to help curtail the effects of the pandemic. Jeong said during a mid-June meeting with industry CEOs that his ministry plans to adjust spending plans to continue its drive to spend more on indigenous products, and move delivery timelines to reflect the reality of schedule delays while also waiving penalties for late payments. He also plans to expand an existing strategy aimed at establishing “defense industry innovation clusters”; this move adds to the first one established in April with an initial government investment. As a result, more funding will be made available to industry and research institutes, and will be used to support regional collaboration in defense-related research and development as well as manufacturing. https://www.defensenews.com/top-100/2020/08/17/reform-efforts-in-south-korea-create-ecosystem-for-defense-industry-growth

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