Back to news

September 16, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Other Defence

Opinion: How To Break Exponential Pentagon Cost Growth

James Chew

The recently published viewpoint “Can the Pentagon Spend More Smartly?” (AW&ST Aug. 31-Sept. 13, p. 58) highlights the consequences of increased dependence on technology to maintain an edge. In fact, the core issue of the exponential growth in cost associated with the linear growth in technology capability is highlighted in Norman Augustine's 1982 book Augustine's Laws. Specifically, two of “Augustine's laws” focus on what needs to be avoided within the Defense Department acquisition community.

One of the laws states: “In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy three and a half days each per week, except for leap year when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.”

Additionally, the book highlights the Defense Department's growing dependence on electronic systems with this law: “After the year 2015, there will be no airplane crashes. There will be no takeoffs either, because electronics will occupy 100% of every airplane's weight.”

Even if these laws seem outlandish, the book's underlying lessons still ring true today.

For decades, the Pentagon was the driving force behind the development of microelectronics until, interestingly, the commercial sector ultimately ended up in the driver's seat.

To share a little history, the Army-funded Micromodule project was the precursor of the integrated circuit and the Very-Large Scale Integration project created today's electronic design automation companies and resulted in the development of multichip wafer fabrication technology. The fact is, today's microelectronics technology would not exist, or would almost certainly be less sophisticated, if not for a few brave and visionary Defense Department project officers.

The electronics industry is likely the most visible and significant example of a commercial market that not only transitioned from but significantly advanced technology developed by the U.S. military. Without the government investment, the device on which I am writing this article, and the one on which you are reading it, would perhaps not exist.

There are lessons to be learned from both the public and private sectors, and best practices from each can certainly be applied cross-functionally to optimize outcomes.

For example, the commercial electronics industry has enabled electronic systems companies to develop high-quality, sustainable and modernizable products on a “can't-miss-Christmas” schedule. Much of the industry's success is due in large part to an adherence to “first-pass success” and the computational software tools and processes that enable it. These tools and processes have been developed by companies that invest significant portions of their annual sales—some up to 40%—into research and development (that is “IR&D” to you in the Pentagon) and are a result of the intense competition within the unforgiving consumer electronics market. These tools and processes, which have institutionalized the product development practice of “emulate before you fabricate,” make up the foundation of on-schedule, on-cost product development.

The best-case scenario is that the current Defense Department and defense industry electronic development process matches up with the commercial electronics development process, where they both seek to achieve “first-pass success.” Even if all things were equal, which they aren't, the commercial timeline would still be around 30% that of the defense timeline. Eliminating the need for prototype hardware and the associated tests and reworks is a major reduction in design time and cost.

So, after so many years of funding research into electronic design and development, why have the Defense Department and defense industry turned away from the commercial processes that stemmed from that investment? Why aren't these processes being adopted?

Congress appreciates that transitioning to commercial electronics best practices is the basis for the much-desired firm, fixed-price acquisition. The fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act, reinforced by the fiscal 2021 Defense Appropriations Act, has an entire section on transitioning to commercial electronics best practices. Program offices and some individuals within the defense industrial base are seeking to better understand the commercial industry-proven way to design electronics that reduce design schedules by at least 70%, producing “first-pass success” electronic system designs that are immediately sustainable and agilely modernizable.

The answer is out there—adopt commercial best practices to save time and money. With nontraditional companies entering the picture (what's the name of that space company?), the public sector should have plenty of motivation to implement tools and processes that are prevalent and successful in today's private sector.

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/opinion-how-break-exponential-pentagon-cost-growth

On the same subject

  • Navy's Fire Scout Drone Helo May Be Sold to Allied Militaries Soon

    July 23, 2018 | International, Naval

    Navy's Fire Scout Drone Helo May Be Sold to Allied Militaries Soon

    By Oriana Pawlyk RAF Fairford, England -- Northrop Grumman Corp. is looking to expand sales of its MQ-8C Fire Scout abroad as the unmanned helicopter preps for its anti-submarine warfare mission. Sitting buttoned-up on the flightline here, the Fire Scout drone -- complete with the U.K.-based Ultra Electronics' sonobuoy mission pod -- is receiving exposure just weeks after completing the first set of mission tests of its target identification, surveillance and surface warfare abilities aboard the USS Coronado. "They've matured it to a level now where [people are] recognizing the value in different missions it is able to do and the [U.S. Navy] is very excited about expanding that capability," said Brian Chappel, Northrop's sector vice president and general manager of autonomous systems. Military.com sat down with Chappel during the Royal International Air Tattoo here. Northrop did not showcase the UAS at Farnborough. "Some of those missions are going to be very interesting to customers around the world. Antisubmarine warfare, communication nodes, support to service action groups, and also with beginning to see a shift in the export policy around this class of system in the U.S., we think there's an opportunity now to take this system and its capability and what it does and find some fertile ground overseas," he said. Related content: US Still Hopes to Sway Turkey to Buy Patriot Missiles over S-400 Air Force Slowly Building Up in Eastern Europe: USAFE Commander Military.com Farnborough Airshow Coverage Chappel's comments come as the Trump administration on Monday finalized its Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy. The State Department recently approved the policy, which aims to relax export rules as well as create channels for U.S. defense industry to sell weapons and drones to international customers without U.S. government sign-off. "We're in various stages in providing information to [partners] through the Navy," Chappel continued. "And by bringing it here [during] the 100th anniversary of the Royal Air Force, a lot of different forces, a lot of people to talk to here that wouldn't normally think about a Fire Scout, and we get to ... tell them how it's a little bit different than just unmanning a helicopter that flies by itself." The Navy, which is set to use Fire Scout aboard its Littoral Combat Ships, is working with Northrop to add different capabilities, Chappel said. "There's a radar that's now being implemented on the system that when it goes operational, will extend the horizon [of it] hundreds of miles beyond," he said, referring to Leonardo's Osprey 30 lightweight active electronically scanned array radar, as well as common datalink Link 16. The UAS is a stripped-down version of the Bell 407. While the anti-sub mission pod would also be an enhancement, it is not currently used by the Navy. The Fire Scout also participated in the U.S. Navy-led RIMPAC exercises this month. The drone can stay airborne for 12 hours and fly at a ceiling of 16,000 feet. Its radar range lets it see roughly 100 miles out to detect a surface target. Chappel estimates that in 10 years additional U.S. units will be using the drone, as well as allies. He said it will evolve for different mission sets. "Do you want it to be an [anti-sub warfare] platform today, and a comms node tomorrow or mixing and matching ... in between?" he said, adding that additional sensors could be integrated for range. "That type of flexibility will make it very attractive." https://www.military.com/dodbuzz/2018/07/17/navys-fire-scout-drone-helo-may-be-sold-allied-militaries-soon.html

  • Boeing’s big month capped off with hat trick of new contracts

    October 1, 2018 | International, Aerospace

    Boeing’s big month capped off with hat trick of new contracts

    By: Valerie Insinna WASHINGTON — Boeing is the biggest aircraft manufacturer in the world, but the losses of the joint strike fighter program and Air Force's long range strike bomber still weigh heavily on the company's defense unit, and had prompted some in industry to wonder if the company's days of making cutting edge combat aircraft were numbered. Conventional wisdom held that Boeing needed to win either the Navy's unmanned tanker drone or the Air Force's next-generation trainer aircraft contract to keep its St. Louis, Mo.-based facility building tactical aircraft into the 2030s. a contract for the Air Force's Huey replacement helicopter was seen as out of reach as the service had formerly expressed a preference for sole-sourcing Black Hawks. But in a matter of weeks, Boeing racked up all three contracts, shocking the defense establishment. First came the MQ-25 Stingray award for the Navy's unmanned tanker drone on Aug. 30. An initial $805 million contract covers the design, development, fabrication, test and delivery of four Stingray drones, but Navy acquisition boss James Geurts said the entire program could be worth up to $13 billion for 72 aircraft. “It is a big win on a high-visibility competition/program and gives Boeing a franchise unmanned program,” wrote Roman Schweizer of Cowen Washington Research Group on Sept. 4. Boeing defeated Lockheed Martin and General Atomics to win the program — and that victory allows Boeing to cement its own status as the Navy's premier manufacturer of fixed-wing aircraft. “A Lockheed Martin win would have cemented its position as the builder of ‘next-gen' naval aviation platforms while Boeing would have been relegated to manufacturing fleet workhorses,” Schweizer said in his assessment of the award. “General Atomics would have a been a one-off, but we thought they would been a favorite for a low-cost, low-risk design.” Then on Monday, Boeing won another big competition — this time worth up to $2.38 billion — for the Air Force's UH-1N replacement helicopter. Boeing and Leonardo were immediately obligated $375 million for the initial four MH-139 helicopters, which will be built at Leonardo's commercial AW-139 production plant in Philadelphia. It was huge news for Leonardo, a large Italian defense contractor that had been attempting to break into the U.S. market with a major program for about a decade. But for Boeing, it was still a relatively small aircraft procurement program, with Byron Callan, an analyst with Capital Alpha Partners, writing that there were probably few opportunities for Boeing-Leonardo to sell the MH-139 to other users in the U.S. military. However, Boeing on Thursday won the major opportunity it had been seeking: the Air Force's T-X program. Boeing's clean sheet design beat out Lockheed and Leonardo to win a contract worth up to $9.2 billion. It's likely the actual program will be worth considerably less — Boeing would be obligated a total of $9.2 billion over time if the Air Force decides to execute all options on the contract for 475 training jets, and the services' program of record sits at 350 jets. But its importance to Boeing extends past the award's total contract value. Winning T-X was “possibly critical” for Boeing's St. Louis plant and for its defense business to remain a competitive player in tactical aircraft design, said Callan. “The MQ-25 win helps sustain production at that facility, which now builds F/A-18s and F-15s,” he wrote after the Sept. 27 announcement. “However, the F/A-18 and F-15 lines may end by the mid-2020s. T-X enables Boeing to keep that facility humming and therefore in the hunt for Penetrating Counter Air and other new military aircraft programs.” Analysts like Callan and Schweizer had speculated that Boeing would bid very aggressively to try to win the contract, but the question was whether the company could possibly offer a new purpose-built design at a significantly lower price point than competitors Lockheed Martin and Leonardo, which both proposed aircraft designs already in production and use by foreign militaries. It appears Boeing may have been able to do just that. Richard Aboulafia told Defense News in 2017 that the Lockheed and Leonardo trainers came with a price tag of about $25 million, although both companies were expected to bid lower than that to be competitive. Meanwhile, Jim McAleese of McAleese & Associates pegged the unit cost of Boeing's T-X at an “eye-watering” $19 million, far below the Air Force's $45 million per plane expectation. That low price “establishes an extremely high burden for disappointed offerors of Lockheed or Leonardo” to launch a successful protest with the Government Accountability Office, he stated in a Sept. 28 email, although Lockheed and Leonardo could potentially argue that the Air Force's cost and schedule risk assessments are too optimistic, given that Boeing offered a new airframe. Callan also pointed out that the MQ-25 and T-X wins could be advantageous to Boeing's commercial business. In the past, the defense sector has developed new materials that have later been adapted for use by the airline industry. With Boeing acquiring autonomy-focused businesses like Liquid Robotics and Aurora while investing in startups through its HorizonX organization, it is possible advances in military unmanned tech could give way to autonomous commercial cargo planes or other future concepts. https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2018/09/28/boeings-big-month-capped-off-with-hat-trick-of-new-contracts

  • V2X secures $75m to advance CBRN threat detection, response

    May 2, 2024 | International, Land

    V2X secures $75m to advance CBRN threat detection, response

    V2X secured $75m for new and follow-on work to enhance chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threat detection and response.  

All news