April 7, 2020 | International, Aerospace
Alex Derber
If the ongoing corona-crisis does effect a structural shift in the air transport market, both the production and aftermarket sectors will have to adjust.
Much has been made of aviation's ability to weather previous external shocks such as 9/11, SARS and the financial crash, but the present upheaval is likely to outdo all others in its severity, and there is a good chance we won't see demand bounce back as quickly as in the past.
In fact, the best comparison may not be with other external shocks at all, but rather with the profound impact that low-cost carriers (LCCs) had upon the established airline sector.
Granted, this occurred region by region on a rolling basis over many years, rather than as a discrete global event like coronavirus, but the demand hit to full-service short- and medium-haul operations was huge.
The LCCs also prompted significant changes in the MRO market, including: a move away from letter checks to more flexible maintenance programs; a rise in outsourcing and full-service maintenance contracts; and consolidation as larger MRO providers sought to enhance their nose-to-tail capabilities.
So, what further changes might be wrought by the present crisis?
Much will depend on the extent of the disruption and the demand profile thereafter, but certain tentative predictions can be made. For example: many airlines will probably fail; the survivors will emerge as smaller operations; many older aircraft will retire earlier; and business travel may never recover its pre-crisis highs.
For the aftermarket this may mean: more competition for contracts and a need to find greater cost efficiencies; a greater focus on new-technology inspection, testing and repair capabilities, such as for carbon fiber and the latest engines; and a trend towards simpler cabins.
Also a fair bet, of course, is that the most significant ramifications of coronavirus for the aftermarket are ones that almost no-one is considering currently.
For an in-depth look at the factors that have shaped the MRO market to this point, see the next Inside MRO.
https://aviationweek.com/mro/how-will-coronavirus-change-aftermarket
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By: Sebastian Sprenger COLOGNE, Germany — German radar specialist Hensoldt announced a successful test of the company's collision-warning radar for unmanned aircraft this week, joining an upcoming industry race to make subsystems for the Eurodrone. Commissioned by the German Defence Ministry's acquisition arm, the test entailed strapping a preliminary version of Hensoldt's detect-and-avoid system to the nose of a manned Dornier Do 228 of the German Aerospace Center. The radar “reliably detected the test aircraft approaching at different altitudes and angles,” the company wrote in a statement. Recreating a human pilot's ability to avert midair collisions remains a largely unsolved problem in unmanned aviation. Military drones flying at similar altitudes as commercial airliners therefore must remain in restricted areas until a suitable technology is found and certified as safe by regulators. The planned European medium-altitude drone, however, is intended by lead nations France, Germany, Italy and Spain to be safe enough to fly in the same airspace as civilian air traffic. That requirement brings back unpleasant memories in Germany, where a previous attempt to field the similarly sized Euro Hawk surveillance drone came crashing down because the aircraft never gained the required certifications. Airbus Defence and Space, Dassault Aviation, and Leonardo are the main contractors for the new drone program, officially dubbed European MALE RPAS and envisioned to be ready by the mid-2020s. The European multinational Organisation for Joint Armament Co-operation, or OCCAR, manages the effort. Full article: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/01/17/critical-flight-safety-feature-up-for-grabs-in-planned-eurodrone