December 17, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security
Tony Osborne
Boris Johnson's election landslide on Dec. 12 makes Brexit on Jan. 31 a certainty.
But as the chants of “Get Brexit Done”—a slogan used by the Conservative party in their election messaging—fade away, Britain's place in the world appears infinitely more vulnerable.
Johnson's parliamentary majority means he can now sweep aside any opposition to pursue his vision of Brexit.
But he was not the only victor.
The Scottish National Party secured 48 of Scotland's 59 seats, which the party says is a mandate for a second independence vote. If it were to succeed, there would be far-reaching consequences to Britain's national defense capability. Scotland is home to strategically important air bases and, most significantly, the UK's Trident-based nuclear deterrent. Johnson is unlikely to approve such a referendum at least in the short-term, but the Scottish nationalists could make life difficult for his government, and preventing a referendum could be seen as undemocratic.
The complexities of having Northern Ireland as the only part of the UK to share a land border with an EU country, the Republic of Ireland, mean that after a Brexit there will be a border in the Irish Sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. This, too, could have security implications and lead to renewed violence from unionist groups, as they see their political influence being eroded. Nationalists see an opportunity for a united Ireland once again. There is also uncertainty about the futures of Gibraltar and Diego Garcia.
Exiting the EU means British security forces no longer will be linked to EU databases on criminals, organized crime and terror. Questions also have arisen about Russia's influence in the British democratic process, with Johnson suppressing publication of an intelligence report on Russian infiltration in British politics during the election run-up.
And there is a fiscal aspect as well. Since the Brexit vote in 2016, Britain's GDP has begun to stagnate as economic output and investments fall away. National debt also is rising. The British Parliament's own analysis suggests GDP could be 7% lower over the next 15 years than without Brexit, and even with a free-trade agreement established with Europe. Questions then would arise about whether Britain could afford to maintain military spending. Currency fluctuations will affect big-budget programs such as the ongoing purchase of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).
Britain is one of a handful of NATO countries with defense spending at or above NATO's target of 2% of GDP. The Conservative manifesto published in the run-up to the election calls for this to increase by at least 0.5% above inflation every year. Britain's defense budget for 2019-20 was £39.5 billion ($52.7 billion), and this will rise to £41.3 billion for 2020-21. The government will maintain and renew the Trident nuclear deterrent but also support the defense industry with “ambitious global programs,” including local construction of Type 31 frigates and local production of the Boxer armored vehicle.
In December, the Royal Navy commissioned the second new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier, HMS Prince of Wales, in a further step toward restoring the country's carrier capability. Following operational trials in the fall off the Eastern U.S., more are planned around the UK during 2020, paving the way for the first operational deployment in May 2021.
The UK plans to have 35 F-35s in service by the end of 2022, and the government has committed to buying all of the 138 F-35s it planned to purchase when it joined the JSF program in the early 2000s. Whether that commitment is met and if the UK will purchase additional variants could be determined in a strategic defense and security review planned for 2020.
With the retirement of the Panavia Tornado last March, the Eurofighter Typhoon fleet has become the heavy-lifter of the UK's air defense mission and is continuing air strikes against Islamic State group sites in Iraq and Syria along with the UK's MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aircraft systems.
The UK now is stepping up development of a Typhoon replacement for the mid-2030s with the Tempest future combat air system, supported by Italy and Sweden. More nations could join in 2020, with Japan a key target. And with delivery of the first of nine Boeing P-8 maritime patrollers, the UK is back in the long-range antisubmarine-warfare business, with an initial operating capability expected in April.
https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/getting-brexit-done-brings-defense-challenges
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Designed for air, surface and maritime use, the ROVER 6S provides real-time, full-motion video and other data for situational awareness, surveillance, convey overwatch operations and other situations where eyes-on-target are...
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February 21, 2020 | International, C4ISR, Security
Budget has $9.8 billion for cyber security and cyber warfare; $3.2 billion for hypersonics; and $800 million for artificial intelligence (AI) research. THE MIL & AERO COMMENTARY – The 2021 U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) budget proposal is out, and it looks like several years of consistent growth driven by the Trump Administration may be leveling off. A closer look, however, may indicate a pivot to new leading-edge technologies and away from legacy systems. DOD leaders in their fiscal 2021 budget request to Congress, which was released last month, are asking for $705.4 billion, which is down about 1 percent from this year's level of $712.6 billion. Before you conclude that the Pentagon budget has turned flat, however, take a look at where the money's going. First, the bad news: procurement. This is where big-ticket items like aircraft, combat vehicles, and ships get funding. The DOD's procurement budget request for 2021 is $136.9 billion, down nearly 7 percent from this year's level of $147.1 billion. Contained in the DOD budget for procurement, moreover, are aggressive cuts to legacy weapons systems. The U.S. Air Force, for example, will retire 24 RQ-4 Block 20 and Block 30 Global Hawk Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and Block 30 multi-intelligence aircraft UAVs next year. Related: Army researchers eye fuel cells to provide power for infantry wearable electronics on the leading edge The U.S. Navy, meanwhile, will retire four Ticonderoga-class missile cruisers. The U.S. Army plans to eliminate 13 programs involving munitions, fires, protection, sustainment, mobility, mission command, and cyber programs that no longer are priorities. Additional cuts are expected. Next year the Navy plans no additional purchases of P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft; the MQ-4 Triton long-range maritime patrol UAV; or the MQ-25 Stingray UAV. The counterweight to these procurement cuts, however, is in the DOD's budget for research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E). As procurement spending is going down, the research budget is headed in the other direction. The Pentagon is asking for $106.6 billion, which is up about 1 percent from this year's research budget of $106.6 billion. Revealing is money is going. The DOD next year plans to spend $9.8 billion for cyber security and cyber warfare -- up 81 percent from $5.4 billion this year; $3.2 billion for hypersonics; $1.5 billion for military microelectronics and 5G networking; and $800 million for artificial intelligence (AI) research. Related: The new era of high-power electromagnetic weapons The Pentagon hypersonics budget will pay for research and development initiatives to develop the Army Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon; Navy Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS); and Air Force Advanced Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW). Research money also would include $1.1 billion for the Navy's next-generation frigate; $4.4 billion for the future Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine; and $464 million for two Large Unmanned Surface Vessels. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is asking for $3.6 billion in 2021, a 3 percent increase from the $3.5 billion the agency received this year. DARPA has asked for $322.7 million for electronics research in 2021 -- a 1.7 increase from the 317.2 million the agency received this year. For sensors research, DARPA is asking for $200.2 million in 2021 -- a 26 percent increase over the $158.9 million the agency received this year. Related: Military researchers host industry day briefings for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning So, in short, it sounds like out with the old, and in with the new at the Pentagon. Four Navy cruisers that are at least 30 years ago are heading for retirement. Large, slow, and vulnerable Global Hawk UAVs are to be taken out of service, and Army programs no longer relevant amid today's global threats will be taken off the board. At the same time, enabling technologies considered crucial for today's military needs are on the upswing: hypersonic munitions and aircraft, cyber security and cyber warfare, 5G networking, and artificial intelligence. Perhaps the DOD has been due for a house cleaning like this for a while. Getting rid of obsolescent weapons systems makes sense because they're past the point of diminishing returns. Pumping more money into technologies for tomorrow's battlefield makes sense, too. These kinds of realignments are painful, yet essential. https://www.militaryaerospace.com/defense-executive/article/14168362/dod-budget-leadingedge-technologies-research