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May 23, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security, Other Defence

Entretiens européens de la défense 2019 (1) : une ‘grand strategy’ pour l’Europe (J. Howorth)

(B2) L'Union européenne doit reconsidérer sa relation avec les Etats-Unis et l'OTAN pour faire émerger une stratégie de défense européenne. C'est ce qu'a défendu Jolyon Howorth, professeur émérite à la Harvard Kennedy School, durant les seconds entretiens européens de la défense à Paris jeudi (16 mai)

Face à la création d'une armée européenne, trois obstacles...

Les Américains s'inquiètent des conséquences d'une défense européenne pour leur leadership. Les Britanniques jouent l'ambivalence pour ne pas froisser les États-Unis. Les Européens peinent à se mettre d'accord sur la marche à suivre. Trois obstacles qui ont fait « échouer » les deux premières tentatives de forger une armée européenne, la Communauté Européenne de Défense (CED) dans les années 1950 et la première version de la politique de défense (la PESD ou politique européenne de sécurité et de défense) à la fin des années 1990 début 2000, et qui continuent à freiner les nouvelles initiatives.

Les Américains, d'accord sur le principe d'une défense européenne

Les Américains, souvent critiqués pour le retard que prennent les initiatives européennes en matière de défense, n'étaient pas toujours défavorables à l'idée et ne s'y « opposent pas par principe, au contraire ». Mais une question les taraude, celle des « conséquences pour le leadership de l'Alliance, voire pour son avenir » si une défense européenne crédible devait se former. D'où l'ambivalence des États-Unis sur cette idée que Eisenhower regardait pourtant en 1951 comme un des objectifs de l'Alliance, idée légitimée par les multiples injonctions américaines à augmenter les budgets européens de défense. Cette position confuse s'inscrit dans le débat existentiel qu'est la définition de la prochaine « grand strategyaméricaine », explique Jolyon Howorth.

... mais des inquiétudes subsistent sur leur leadership au sein de l'Alliance

Après « quarante ans de leadership incontesté des alliés européens », le courant « liberal hegemon » qui définit la politique des Etats-Unis depuis longtemps se voit contester par les partisans de « l'offshore balancing ». Lesquels prônent un repli américain sur « un nombre fort limité de bases stratégiques » et un « transfert aux Européens de la responsabilité principale de leur propre sécurité ». La question reste ouverte alors que Donald Trump « semble s'y associer », sans toutefois « comprendre un instant le sens profond de ce débat stratégique ».

Les Britanniques, réfractaires à toute intégration européenne

Les Britanniques ont été, eux, « beaucoup plus réfractaires que les Américains au projet dès le début ». Et ils continueront de « freiner l'avancée des Européens vers une autonomie stratégique », rendant l'axe Paris-Berlin « d'autant plus urgent ». La vision britannique est celle d'une sécurité européenne b'tie sur une « clé de voûte » : l'OTAN. Les Européens étant simplement relégués à un rôle « complémentaire ». C'est pourquoi « Londres a bloqué toute avancée » qui aurait pu mener à une armée européenne tout en réclamant pourtant « à cor et à cri » un « engagement inconditionnel » à la sécurité européenne, selon le professeur, lui-même British. Pourtant fermement soutenue par Winston Churchill dès le début, la défense européenne a vite inquiété outre-Manche, le Royaume-Uni anxieux de « préserver le partenariat avec les États-Unis ». Le pays avait par exemple refusé la CED dès 1953, craignant que « le succès de l'armée européenne n'entraîne le désengagement américain ».

Les Européens indécis et divisés

Mais au final, les Européens sont leurs propres ennemis. Les divisions nationales sur la manière de construire l'Europe persistent et se retrouvent, « de façon profonde, au sein des familles politiques ». Mais avec le nouveau contexte géostratégique, de plus en plus complexe et multidimensionnel, « l'Union européenne ne peut plus se permettre le luxe de ses divisions internes ». Il faut repenser notre stratégie pour « passer de l'Europe de la défense, à la défense de l'Europe ». Ces divisions cristallisent l'opposition entre « l'intégrationnisme » prôné par Monnet et « l'intergouvernementalisme », selon le modèle gaullien. La politique de sécurité et de défense commune (PSDC) a, depuis Saint-Malo, et la déclaration franco-britannique de 1998, été développée dans le cadre de ce dernier, un modèle « de plus en plus mis en question ». Les dernières évolutions en matière de défense nous placent à nouveau « face à la confrontation de ces deux méthodologies contradictoires ».

Trois défis majeurs aujourd'hui

Définir une stratégie européenne propre

Il faut développer une « grand strategy » à l'européenne martèle Jolyon Howorth. L'un des problèmes fondamentaux de la première version de la PSDC fut son « manque d'ambition » par « crainte de froisser » les Américains. Pourtant, « la seule ambition qui vaille pour l'Union européenne est d'assumer sa propre défense collective ». Et donc d'arrêter de penser qu'il est impossible pour l'Europe de se défendre sans le soutien américain. Et il faut « pouvoir s'adapter à la nouvelle donne planétaire ». « Après Trump, il n'y aura pas de retour à la case départ ».

À quel prix

« L'armée européenne ne s'achètera pas parmi les soldes de chez Tati ». Les États membres de l'OTAN ont dépensé « 264 milliards de dollars » sur les questions de défense en 2018. Si tous les pays avaient atteint l'objectif fixé par l'OTAN de 2% du PIB, cela aurait majoré la somme de « près de 102 milliards de dollars ». Mais une armée européenne autonome pourrait représenter jusqu'à « 467 milliards de dollars supplémentaires » rappelle l'universitaire, se basant sur une étude récente du International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) qui fait l'hypothèse d'un retrait américain d'Europe. Un engagement conséquent donc.

Et avec qui ?

Si beaucoup pensent que l'armée européenne sera forgée « à l'extérieur de l'OTAN, sans les Américains, voire contre », Jolyon Howorth n'en est pas persuadé. Une armée européenne ne doit pas être construite contre les Américains, mais « en bonne intelligence avec eux ». Car l'Alliance ne va pas se dissoudre de sitôt. Et elle peut avoir un rôle moteur alors qu'il existe actuellement « quatre-vingt projets de coopération » entre l'OTAN et l'UE, et que les Américains « n'arrêtent pas de nous demander des efforts accrus, de nous encourager à assumer le leadership stratégique dans notre voisinage ». Il faudrait plutôt revenir au scénario initial : une alliance « rééquilibrée » dans laquelle les Européens « prennent graduellement la part du lion » et les Américains jouent « le rôle de facilitateurs ». Pour former une alliance qui ne soit pas « structurée par la dépendance, encore moins par la servitude ».

(Coline Traverson st.)

https://www.bruxelles2.eu/2019/05/23/entretiens-europeens-de-la-defense-2019-une-grand-strategy-pour-leurope-j-howorth/

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