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December 2, 2019 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

Coming off a troubled year

By: Jill Aitoro

The strategy for reading tea leaves of the year to come is naturally anchored in the lasting events of the year just passed.

So then let us consider 2019. The year was, in many respects, one of messiness. The already tense relationship between Turkey and NATO allies got worse, leading to the decision by the U.S. to kick the country out of the F-35 program. High-profile program struggles plagued some of the largest defense companies in the world. Political turmoil led to leadership shakeups both in the U.S. and across the pond. Instability in the industrial base made advancements in technology by adversaries all the more troubling.

But there were also some signs of progress. Modern warfare capabilities — from hypersonics to artificial intelligence — transitioned from a footnote for only some to the everyday vernacular of most. More experimentation emerged in techiques for system development and acquisition. And around the world, countries from various regions grew more earnest in their desires to expand their influence and investment in global defense.

What can we predict, then, based upon this, for 2020? Global relations will continue to shift, no longer defined by existing alliances but rather by individual behavior and more self-serving demands. Elections stand to turn the current state of political affairs on its ear, whether it be for better or for worse. And competition will grow more fierce, driven by a shrinking industrial base and the fact that defense companies will need to look beyond the U.S. to find the most sought-after programs with the biggest potential payout.

Obviously, there is a lot we don't know. Will NATO flounder or regain its footing? Will election results drive allies closer together or farther apart? Will defense budgets go up or down? And will the increasing use of hybrid tactics reshape both the forces of today and the systems of tomorrow?

We asked leaders from around the world to provide their perspective. See what's on their minds here in Outlook 2020.

https://www.defensenews.com/outlook/

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  • Sous-marins : la France et l'Australie vont verrouiller le contrat du siècle

    February 5, 2019 | International, Naval

    Sous-marins : la France et l'Australie vont verrouiller le contrat du siècle

    Par Michel Cabirol L'Australie et le groupe naval vont signer l'accord cadre de leur partenariat stratégique (Strategic Partnering Agreement). Naval Group devrait signer avant le printemps un contrat portant sur le design des sous-marins et estimé entre 1 et 2 milliards d'euros. En Australie, Naval Group va bientôt voir la lumière après un très, très long tunnel de négociations. Lundi prochain, l'Australie et le groupe naval tricolore vont signer l'accord cadre de leur partenariat stratégique (Strategic Partnering Agreement ou SPA) en présence de Florence Parly et de son homologue australien Christopher Pyne, selon l'entourage de la ministre des Armées. Des négociations qui avaient commencé début février 2017. Un accord intergouvernemental entre l'Australie et la France avait été signé en décembre 2016. Ce contrat "chapeau" intègre toutes les clauses de transferts de technologies, de garanties, de risques et de couvertures notamment sur la durée du contrat (50 ans). Il doit également protéger les propriétés intellectuelles de Naval Group. C'est donc l'aboutissement de négociations tripartites très complexes, qui vont en grande partie verrouiller le contrat du siècle pour Naval Group, sélectionné en 2016 par Canberra pour fabriquer douze sous-marins à propulsion classique pour un montant évalué à 50 milliards de dollars australiens (36,2 milliards d'euros). Rassurer l'Australie Cet accord vise principalement à assurer à (et rassurer) l'Australie que Naval Group sera capable tout au long de la durée de la vie du contrat des sous-marins (50 ans) de maintenir son outil industriel. La France a dû donner son assurance à l'Australie que Naval Group existera encore dans 50 ans pour assurer l'entretien des douze b'timents qui sont stratégiques pour Canberra. De même, selon l'entourage de la ministre, le résultat des prochaines élections législatives australiennes, qui doivent avoir lieu au premier semestre 2019 afin de renouveler l'intégralité des 151 sièges de la Chambre des représentants et 40 des 76 sièges du Sénat, ne devrait pas changer l'accord entre l'Australie et Naval Group. Des assurances par l'opposition ont été données à la ministre lors de son passage en septembre dernier. Un deuxième contrat en voie d'être signé L'Australie devrait signer avant le printemps un deuxième contrat avec Naval Group, qui porte sur le design des sous-marins. Il était attendu depuis octobre 2017. Le montant est évalué entre 1 et 2 milliards d'euros. Ce contrat lancera officiellement les activités du bureau d'études du groupe naval en matière de design et d'analyse fonctionnelle des futurs b'timents. Il permettra de définir non seulement les spécificités opérationnelles des sous-marins mais également de déterminer le coût et les délais de fabrication. Enfin, il restera ensuite à Naval Group de signer le contrat de fabrication des douze sous-marins... Soit le contrat du sicèle. Naval Group avait signé en septembre 2016 un premier contrat opérationnel d'environ 300 millions d'euros, dénommé "Design and Mobilisation Contract". Il avait permis de lancer les activités de structuration du programme et de coordination avec le groupe américain Lockheed Martin, l'intégrateur du système de combat et les partenaires australiens. https://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/sous-marins-la-france-et-l-australie-vont-verrouiller-le-contrat-du-siecle-806260.html

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  • What the Pentagon could learn from unicorns

    January 28, 2019 | International, Other Defence

    What the Pentagon could learn from unicorns

    By: Jill Aitoro WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. — The promise of Silicon Valley is built on unicorns — startup companies valued at more than $1 billion. They're rare. Hence the name. But the payoff is big enough that venture capitalists are willing to funnel a lot of money by way of multiple rounds of funding toward unproven technologies, to accept significant risk, in hopes they'll be in on the ground floor of the next great discovery. Compare that to Washington, where in the words of Defense Innovation Board Executive Director Josh Marcuse: “We put forward a defense program full of things that we know aren't going to work, but no one is willing to say so.” For more than three years the Pentagon has attempted to draw upon the Silicon Valley culture of innovation, to buy instead of build, to take advantage of commercial technology. But success has been spotty at best — with SpaceX and Palantir rather exclusively held up as the two “unicorns” catering to the military. But while many procurement reformists will point to burdensome regulations as the problem, innovation leaders from both the Department of Defense and Silicon Valley companies agreed during a November roundtable hosted by Defense News that no laws currently in place prevent smart buying by the government. Instead, those same innovation leader say that what causes the greatest minds in the tech community to walk away from the largest buyer in the world is a slow, arduous process combined with a serious lack of understanding within the Pentagon for how software is designed. “We basically created an innovation program where you have to have Howard Hughes-style entrepreneurship to do anything that matters,” said Trae Stephens, partner at San Francisco-based venture capital firm Founders Fund and co-founder of Silicon Vally tech firm Anduril. To buy or to build Since the 1990s, defense acquisition regulations have clearly stated that commercial preference should be given in every contracting decision. Reinforcing that point, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics released a guidebook for acquiring commercial items in January 2018, stating: “The time and cost to develop and field new capabilities, the technological advances made by near peer competitors and the rapid pace of innovation by private industry have demonstrated the need to access the best technology — now.” And yet, such earnest support of commercial tech does not regularly filter to the acquisition community. Agencies over-specify requirements, “so now if the company wants to do business with [the Pentagon], they have to modify their product,” Stephens said. “All you have to do is say, ‘Yes, we have validated that there is no commercial product that meets our requirements,' and that's it.” The Pentagon does not, however, do the opposite — adapt requirements for a particular product. “There are a lot of things that we just have to build. We're going to build aircraft carriers, we're going to build fighter planes,” Stephens added. “And then there's the thing that we're going to buy — the products. These should be entirely separate conversations.” That over-specification runs counter to the “agile” development method typically favored by the tech community, which is built on a premise of short sprints that factor into evolving requirements. Agile can't exist without a degree of flexibility, ensuring, too, that if you fail, you fail fast. Contrast that with the traditional waterfall approach that predefines the various phases of development to ensure, in theory, a predictable outcome. Full article: https://www.defensenews.com/smr/cultural-clash/2019/01/28/what-the-pentagon-could-learn-from-unicorns

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