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July 26, 2019 | International, Aerospace

Coming in 2021: The B-21 Raider’s first flight?

WASHINGTON — The Air Force's No. 2 officer has a countdown on his iPhone for the first B-21 Raider flight, and it may happen sooner than you think: December 2021, to be exact.

“Don't hold me to it, but it's something like 863 days to first flight,” said Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Stephen Wilson, according to Air Force Magazine.

Wilson, who spoke July 24 at an AFA Mitchell Institute event, said he had recently visited B-21 prime contractor Northrop Grumman's facilities in Melbourne, Fla., and that the company was “moving out on that pretty fast.”

The 863-day countdown — if it is accurate — would peg the Raider's inaugural flight to Dec. 3, 2021. And while there's still ample time for design problems and budget setbacks to delay that schedule, analysts said the Air Force's disclosure of the first flight date means that the secretive bomber program is likely moving along smoothly.

“A lot can happen in two years. But if they feel that confident about the schedule it's a good sign that things are on course,” said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with the Teal Group.

The short timeline between the contract award to Northrop Grumman in 2015 — which withstood a Boeing-Lockheed protest in 2016 — and first flight in 2021 could be a sign the B-21's air vehicle design is a smaller version of the B-2 Spirit, he said.

“Which, of course, would mean a lot less risk and reasonably fast schedule,” Aboulafia said. “There's not a reason for the airframe itself to have to change radically. It's everything else about it that needs to be modernized, and it seems they think they can make do with a smaller system with less range. If you accept that thinking as the likely reality, then that would make for less risk and a relatively short development schedule. That all makes sense.”

However, it is possible that there have been major design changes, in which case it's likely that several sub-scale or even full-scale demonstrators will fly before 2021, he added.

Roman Schweizer, an analyst of Cowen Washington Research Group, said a 2021 first flight is a “significant new data point” that meshes well with the company's projected schedule of the program.

“We believe the next major milestone for the program will be a Production Readiness Review that will clear the way for manufacturing the first prototype aircraft. Based on the program's next R&D funding step-up, we expect this could happen sometime later this calendar year to allow manufacturing to begin in FY20,” he wrote in an email to investors on Wednesday.

In March, Bloomberg reported that procurement spending for the B-21 program would start in FY22 with $202 million in funding, shooting up to $2.4 billion the following year and $3.3 billion in FY24.

“That could mean Low-Rate Production in FY23,” Schweizer wrote. “That would also make sense after flight test evaluations of the prototype (and possibly several others).”

The Air Force has kept tight hold on details related to the Raiders development, keeping much of its budget in the “black” or classified portion of the funding request. The last major B-21 related disclosure was the December 2018 announcement that the program had completed its critical design review.

Wilson's statements follow Acting Secretary of the Air Force Matt Donovan's visit to Northrop's B-21 Design and Development Headquarters in Melbourne., on July 19. Donovan was accompanied by Randy Walden, director of the Air Force Rapid Capabilities Office, which is responsible for executing the program.

“We look forward to receiving the B-21 on time and incorporating it into our future force,” Donovan said after the visit. “The B-21 will be a significant component of our Air Force as we continue to modernize to meet the National Defense Strategy and is a game-changing capability to win the high-end fight.”

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https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/07/25/coming-in-2021-the-b-21-raiders-first-flight/

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    In newly inked deal, F-35 price falls to $78 million a copy

    By: Valerie Insinna WASHINGTON —The Pentagon and Lockheed Martin have finalized a $34 billion deal for the next three lots of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, setting the price of an F-35A jet below $80 million. The fresh price tag has come a year earlier than expected. The deal includes 478 F-35s for U.S. and international customers across lots 12, 13 and 14. On average, the price per aircraft will fall about 12.8 percent across all variants from Lot 11 to Lot 14, according to the Pentagon. “This is the first time the F-35 Joint Program Office will award a significant F-35 aircraft procurement in the same fiscal year as the congressional appropriation year,” Pentagon acquisition head Ellen Lord told reporters Tuesday. “We will reach a unit-recurring flyaway-cost-per-aircraft target of $80 million for a U.S. Air Force F-35A price by Lot 13, which is one lot earlier than planned — a significant milestone for the department,” she added. The F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing model — which is used by the U.S. Air Force and most international users — is set to decrease from a Lot 11 price of $89.2 million to $82.4 million in Lot 12; $79.2 million in Lot 13; and $77.9 million in Lot 14. The F-35B short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing model will fall to $108 million in Lot 12, $104.8 million in Lot 13 and $101.3 million in Lot 14. The F-35C variant, which can take off and land on aircraft carriers, also decreased in price, dropping to $103.1 million in Lot 12, $98.1 million in Lot 13 and $94.4 million in Lot 14. Lockheed will deliver 149 F-35s in Lot 12, 160 aircraft in Lot 13 and 169 for Lot 14. Neither Lord nor Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, the Pentagon's F-35 program executive, could explain why the size of the Lot 12 buy had dwindled from the 157 jets announced in June as part of the handshake deal to 149 jets in the definitized agreement. However, it's likely that the decrease is due to Turkey's removal from the program. After the handshake agreement was announced, a source with knowledge of the deal told Defense News that it included Turkish jets to the order of about five to 10 F-35s per lot. The Pentagon announced the contract definitization on Monday, awarding Lockheed Martin a $7 billion modification to a previous contract vehicle for the F-35. The Defense Department previously obligated funding to Lockheed through undefinitized contracts for about 255 aircraft, Fick said. The award, which comprises some Lot 12 jets as well as Lot 13 planes added by Congress in the fiscal 2019 budget, includes 114 F-35s: 48 F-35As for the U.S. Air Force 20 F-35Bs for the U.S. Marine Corps Nine F-35Cs for the U.S. Navy 12 F-35As for Norway 15 F-35As for Australia Eight F-35As and two F-35Bs for Italy Funds for obsolescent parts, software data loads, critical safety items, nonrecurring and recurring engineering, and the Joint Strike Fighter Airborne Data Emulator. “We are still left, then with about 100 aircraft to go and about another $7 billion to go associated with the work to be done for U.S. services in accordance with the [FY20 budget],” Fick said. “We don't have that budget yet. We can't make that contract award for the final aircraft until such time as we have this new statutory authority to do so.” In a statement, Lockheed's F-35 program head hailed the progress on the aircraft's price reduction. “With smart acquisition strategies, strong government-industry partnership and a relentless focus on quality and cost reduction, the F-35 enterprise has successfully reduced procurement costs of the 5th generation F-35 to equal or less than 4th generation legacy aircraft,” said Greg Ulmer, Lockheed's F-35 program vice president and general manager. https://www.defensenews.com/air/2019/10/29/in-newly-inked-deal-f-35-prices-fall-to-78-million-a-copy/

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