Army Releasing Infantry Squad Vehicle RFP In April, Awarding Prototype Contracts In August

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  October 15, 2020 | International, Naval

  Outgoing Pakistan Navy chief reveals details of modernization programs

  Usman Ansari ISLAMABAD — Pakistan's Navy is racing to plug operational and technological gaps as part of an unprecedented modernization effort, according to the outgoing naval chief, but analysts are divided on whether the move will deter adversaries. Adm. Zafar Mahmood Abbasi was speaking during the an Oct. 6 change-of-command ceremony when he detailed measures he enacted, prioritizing “combat readiness and offensive capability” for the historically undersized force amid tension with India. In addition to reorganizing the Navy's force structure, he outlined acquisition and development programs, some of which were mentioned for the first time or had new details confirmed. These included: Expanding the Navy to more than 50 warships (more than doubling major surface combatants to 20, with plans for six additional large offshore patrol vessels). The apparent free transfer of a Chinese Yuan-class submarine to train Pakistani crews for its eight Hangor subs. Developing the hypersonic P282 ship-launched anti-ship/land-attack ballistic missile. Establishing the Naval Research and Development Institute to nurture indigenous design talent (it is presently engaged in programs such as the Jinnah-class frigate, Hangor-class subs, UAV jammers, directed-energy weapons, underwater sonar surveillance coastal defense systems, unmanned underwater vehicles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles). Replacing of the P-3C Orion patrol aircraft with 10 converted commercial jets, the first of which has been ordered. Acquiring medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicles as well as 20 indigenous gunboats, which are to be commissioned by 2025. The Navy would not provide more details when asked, though the gunboats were previously confirmed as undergoing design. Rivals However, analysts are divided on whether these programs will prove a sufficient deterrent against Pakistan's archrival India. Author, analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, claimed it is “quite impossible for Pakistan to achieve a naval structure that even approaches that of the Indian Navy.” “It cannot afford it. At best, its deterrence value would be entirely local," he said. Though he described India's aircraft carriers as “decidedly inferior in effectiveness in international terms, and present no threat to China,” they are a “major threat” to Pakistan's Navy when they are out of range of shore-based air power. In the event of a conflict involving India's Navy, Pakistan “would deploy all its assets to destroy it, and although the [Indian Navy] would suffer major losses, the attrition factor would be the decider,” he added. In contrast, expansion of the Pakistan Navy would “effectively neutralize India's growing naval capability,” according to Mansoor Ahmed, a senior research fellow at the Center for International Strategic Studies in Islamabad. He noted that India has “long enjoyed the most decisive numerical advantage; that is potentially destabilizing, as it could encourage belligerency and aggression, and fuel crisis instability.” However, Pakistan's modernization efforts would “help keep the nuclear threshold high,” “enhance Pakistan's second-strike capability by increasing survivability of its surface and submarine fleet,” and provide considerably increased capacity for attrition, Ahmed added. Similarly, Tom Waldwyn, a naval expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there is merit in the expansion program. “Certainly the ship- and submarine-building plans, once realized, will be a significant boost to Pakistan's conventional maritime capability. By the end of this decade, the frigate fleet will grow by half and the submarine fleet will probably double in size. The planned gunboats could free up the new frigates to perform tasks the Pakistan Navy is currently not able to do as often,” he said. The Hangor program is probably the most noteworthy because of China's involvement, Waldwyn added. “Although local build of Hangor submarines is planned to be complete before the end of the decade, regenerating that industrial capability will be a big effort, and I expect that Chinese assistance in doing so will be crucial.” But one factor depends on whether Germany provides export clearance of diesel engines for the submarine. Pakistan's Ministry of Defence Production, the Navy's public relations department, the German embassy in Islamabad, and Germany's Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control all declined to respond to Defense News' inquiries about the engines. It is unknown whether the program is now proceeding with Chinese substitutes. Weapons and platforms Announcement of a contract for unmanned combat aerial vehicles, however, appears to be official confirmation the Chinese Wing Loong II deal first reported in October 2018. Though photographed undergoing testing in Pakistan, there was never official confirmation of a contract. Air power expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, Justin Bronk, said it “is probably one of the most effective options for armed UAV acquisition available to Pakistan.” “It has proven fairly satisfactory in service with the [United Arab Emirates] and others, and can carry a wide variety of cheap and effective Chinese munitions. Its sensor capabilities are not up to U.S. standards, especially in terms of stabilization. But given that sales of MQ-9 and other comparable U.S. systems are restricted, and Israeli UAVs are seldom exported with acknowledged weapons capabilities, Wing Loong II is probably the best option available,” Bronk explained. In regard to what aircraft Pakistan will choose to replace its P-3C Orion fleet, Defense News asked the Navy and the Ministry of Defence Production, but neither provided details by press time. A small number of business or regional jets from Brazil, Russia or Ukraine with non-Western systems (to avoid sanctions) could readily be converted to suit Pakistan's requirements. However, there is no official, publicly available notice or hint of sale to Pakistan from these countries' manufacturers, and there was no response to related queries. Such a conversion could be locally done, as wider naval modernization is underpinned by Pakistan's in-house research and development program. Still, the IISS analyst added, it's not essential the work be performed domestically. On the modernization effort as a whole, Waldwyn noted that “developing the local capability to design and build this equipment is not a prerequisite to providing conventional deterrence in the short term, and importing equipment from abroad can sometimes be less expensive.” “However, there is value to developing the defense industrial base and sovereign technological capabilities, as it can protect you against geopolitical changes going forward,” the IISS analyst added. For Ahmed, domestic work would demonstrate Pakistan “is determined to maintain the required level of modernization” — particularly with directed-energy weapons. Meanwhile, he said he's uncertain what new purpose the P282 missile will serve. He is unconvinced the P282 is a hypersonic cruise missile intended to replace the current ship- and submarine-launched Harbah cruise missile. However, if the P282 is a ballistic missile as claimed, “it would make sense only if deployed on a submarine” where it could serve as part of Pakistan's nuclear deterrent. Nevertheless, he added, the modernization program will still “greatly enhance the overall credibility of Pakistan's deterrent posture vis-a-vis India.” https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/10/14/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-details-of-modernization-programs/

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  May 5, 2020 | International, Aerospace, Naval, Land, C4ISR, Security

  DOD Seeking More COVID-19 Stimulus Funding, Esper Says

  Lee Hudson The Pentagon intends to request additional stimulus funding from Congress to support the defense industrial base in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Defense Secretary Mark Esper says. The funding would go to small suppliers that have been hit hard by the spread of the novel coronavirus, Esper said May 4 during a Brookings Institution event. In recent weeks, Congress has passed about $3 trillion in emergency funding bills related to COVID-19. The Senate is in session this week, but the House has postponed votes. It is unknown when the next stimulus package will wrap up. “We anticipate the likely need for additional monies ... because we see again greater demand with regard to medical supplies and equipment,” Esper said. But House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.) said the Pentagon should not receive stimulus funding from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act because the public health sector needs it more. Last week, Pentagon acquisition executive Ellen Lord said the Pentagon may have wiggle room to use some of its own operations and maintenance funding to pay for COVID-19-related efforts. Lord cautioned that the Pentagon may not have the fiscal flexibility to pay for new demands on the agency to battle COVID-19. “I will say that we continue to look at gaps in funding we have for specific issues. We continue to work with [the Office of Management and Budget] on that, and we will continue to talk to Congress about what we assess as our needs to really carry out our missions,” Lord said. The Defense Department (DOD) wants to continue supporting the defense industry by issuing progress payments to help with cash flow, Esper said. “DOD is not an island. We really rely heavily on the private sector, and so many of our private sector workforce has been affected by COVID-19,” Esper said. Some defense contractor personnel are infected with the virus, while others are working in states with shutdown orders and management does not want them coming into work because of tight quarters, he said. Separately, Esper is concerned the nation's additional debt incurred due to COVID-19 may result in smaller defense budgets during a critical time when China and Russia are strategic competitors of the U.S. The U.S. must recapitalize the nuclear triad and invest in hypersonic weapons, artificial intelligence, space capabilities and directed energy, Esper said. https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/budget-policy-operations/dod-seeking-more-covid-19-stimulus-funding-esper-says

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  February 18, 2019 | International, C4ISR

  DARPA: Teaching AI Systems to Adapt to Dynamic Environments

  Current AI systems excel at tasks defined by rigid rules – such as mastering the board games Go and chess with proficiency surpassing world-class human players. However, AI systems aren't very good at adapting to constantly changing conditions commonly faced by troops in the real world – from reacting to an adversary's surprise actions, to fluctuating weather, to operating in unfamiliar terrain. For AI systems to effectively partner with humans across a spectrum of military applications, intelligent machines need to graduate from closed-world problem solving within confined boundaries to open-world challenges characterized by fluid and novel situations. To attempt this leap, DARPA today announced the Science of Artificial Intelligence and Learning for Open-world Novelty (SAIL-ON) program. SAIL-ON intends to research and develop the underlying scientific principles and general engineering techniques and algorithms needed to create AI systems that act appropriately and effectively in novel situations that occur in open worlds. The program's goals are to develop scientific principles to quantify and characterize novelty in open-world domains, create AI systems that react to novelty in those domains, and to demonstrate and evaluate these systems in a selected DoD domain. A Proposers Day for interested proposers is scheduled for March 5, 2019, in Arlington, Virginia: https://go.usa.gov/xEUWh “Imagine if the rules for chess were changed mid-game,” said Ted Senator, program manager in DARPA's Defense Sciences Office. “How would an AI system know if the board had become larger, or if the object of the game was no longer to checkmate your opponent's king but to capture all his pawns? Or what if rooks could now move like bishops? Would the AI be able to figure out what had changed and be able to adapt to it?” Existing AI systems become ineffective and are unable to adapt when something significant and unexpected occurs. Unlike people, who recognize new experiences and adjust their behavior accordingly, machines continue to apply outmoded techniques until they are retrained. Given enough data, machines are able to do statistical reasoning well, such as classifying images for face-recognition, Senator said. Another example is DARPA's AI push in self-driving cars in the early 2000s, which led to the current revolution in autonomous vehicles. Thanks to massive amounts of data that include rare-event experiences collected from tens of millions of autonomous miles, self-driving technology is coming into its own. But the available data is specific to generally well-defined environments with known rules of the road. “It wouldn't be practical to try to generate a similar data set of millions of self-driving miles for military ground systems that travel off-road, in hostile environments and constantly face novel conditions with high stakes, let alone for autonomous military systems operating in the air and on sea,” Senator said. If successful, SAIL-ON would teach an AI system how to learn and react appropriately without needing to be retrained on a large data set. The program seeks to lay the technical foundation that would empower machines, regardless of the domain, to go through the military OODA loop process themselves – observe the situation, orient to what they observe, decide the best course of action, and then act. “The first thing an AI system has to do is recognize the world has changed. The second thing it needs to do is characterize how the world changed. The third thing it needs to do is adapt its response appropriately,” Senator said. “The fourth thing, once it learns to adapt, is for it to update its model of the world.” SAIL-ON will require performers and teams to characterize and quantify types and degrees of novelty in open worlds, to construct software that generates novel situations at distinct levels of a novelty hierarchy in selected domains, and to develop algorithms and systems that are capable of identifying and responding to novelty in multiple open-world domains. SAIL-ON seeks expertise in multiple subfields of AI, including machine learning, plan recognition, knowledge representation, anomaly detection, fault diagnosis and recovery, probabilistic programming, and others. A Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) solicitation is expected to be posted in the near future and will be available on DARPA's FedBizOpps page: http://go.usa.gov/Dom https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2019-02-14