19 novembre 2018 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR

Why the U.S. could lose the next big war - and what that means for Canada

Murray Brewster · CBC News

It was more than the usual sky-is-falling rhetoric we're used to seeing in national security reports out of Washington.

It came from some pretty sober, respected voices in the defence community.

A special commission report, presented to the U.S. Congress this week, delivered one of the most stark — even startling — assessments in the last two decades of the limits of American military power.

The independent, nonpartisan review of the Trump administration's 2018 National Defence Strategy said the U.S. could lose future wars with Russia or China.

"This Commission believes that America has reached the point of a full-blown national security crisis," reads the 116-page document written by 12 leading defence and security experts and released Wednesday.

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency, or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat."

Those are sobering words for Canada, in light of this country's contribution of over 450 troops to the NATO-led deterrence mission in Latvia.

Time for a defence policy rewrite?

And it has prompted a call from at least one Canadian defence expert for a re-assessment — perhaps even a full-blown rewrite — of the Liberal government's own defence policy.

More than simply another rote, boilerplate plea for fatter U.S. defence budgets, the commission's report lays out in precise detail the kind of geopolitical threats Washington — and, by extension, other Western capitals — are facing from rivals and enemies at many levels and in multiple spheres.

"The security and well-being of the United States are at greater risk than at any time in decades. America's military superiority — the hard-power backbone of its global influence and national security — has eroded to a dangerous degree," says the report.

"America's ability to defend its allies, its partners, and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt. If the nation does not act promptly to remedy these circumstances, the consequences will be grave and lasting."

The report acknowledges that the U.S. and its allies may be forced to fight a localized nuclear war in the future, given how Russia has restored the once-unthinkable concept to its military planning and training exercises.

The commission also paints various grim scenarios that could confront Western allies between now and 2022, including an invasion of the Baltics under the guise of a "peacekeeping" mission to protect Russian minorities:

"As U.S. and NATO forces prepare to respond, Russia declares that strikes against Russian forces in those states will be treated as attacks on Russia itself — implying a potential nuclear response.

"Meanwhile, to keep America off balance, Russia escalates in disruptive ways. Russian submarines attack transatlantic fibre optic cables. Russian hackers shut down power grids and compromise the security of U.S. banks."

The consequences, said the report, would be severe: "Major cities are paralyzed; use of the internet and smartphones is disrupted. Financial markets plummet as commerce seizes up and online financial transactions slow to a crawl. The banking system is thrown into chaos."

While the report doesn't mention U.S. President Donald Trump by name, it notes the effect of his bruising rhetorical fights with world leaders and criticism of international institutions, such as NATO.

"Doubts about America's ability to deter and, if necessary, defeat opponents and honour its global commitments have proliferated," said the report.

Cautious optimism

At this weekend's Halifax International Security Forum, Canada's marquee defence conference, some leading experts struck a less pessimistic note and suggested that the West still has a major technological lead on Moscow.

"Russia is a great country. It is a great country, historically. But Russia is also a failing country," said Peter Van Praagh, president of the Halifax Security Forum, at the opening of the event on Friday.

"Russia does not have the same advanced tools that NATO has, that Canada and NATO and the American alliance [have]."

Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan also expressed cautious optimism about the threat.

"In NATO we're taking this extremely seriously. We're learning from the various missions that are ongoing," he said.

A former military adviser to one of Sajjan's predecessors said Canada could learn from the commission exercise, which was meant to challenge the Trump administration's defence plans.

"It's certainly something we don't have," said Richard Cohen, an ex-army officer who served as former defence minister Peter MacKay's adviser. "Our government would never dream of inviting anyone to come and criticize its defence policy."

The current government sought extensive input before the new Canadian policy was presented 18 months ago.

The U.S. commission report calls on NATO and its allies to "rebuild" substantial military forces in Europe, among things.

Cohen said that, if anything, should trigger a fresh look at the Liberal government's own defence policy.

"Our defence policy is predicated on the kind of asymmetric warfare we have faced since the end of the Cold War and it really ignores the looming strategic threats that Russia, China and maybe some others pose as well," he said.

"At least the United States realizes this growing strategic threat," Cohen added, noting that the current Liberal defence policy makes only passing mention of China "in very gentle terms" and limited references to Russia.

"If the United States is in a national security crisis, then we're in a national security crisis."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/defence-policy-trump-china-russia-1.4910038

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  • Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 6, 2018

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    Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 6, 2018

    DEFENSE LOGISTICS AGENCY Calpine Energy Solutions LLC, San Diego, California, has been awarded a $67,252,189 firm-fixed-price, requirements contract to supply and deliver retail electricity and ancillary/incidental services. This was a competitive acquisition with 11 offers received. This is a 36-month contract with no option periods. Locations of performance are Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland and California, with a Dec. 31, 2021, performance completion date. Using military service is Navy. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2019 through 2022 Navy working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Energy, Fort Belvoir, Virginia (SPE60419D8000). Loc Performance Products Inc.,* Plymouth, Michigan, has been awarded a maximum $52,389,123 fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for truck final drives. This was a competitive acquisition with two responses received. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Location of performance is Michigan, with an April 30, 2025, performance completion date. Using military service is Army. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2019 through 2024 Army working capital funds. The contracting agency is the Defense Logistics Agency Land and Maritime, Warren, Michigan (SPRDL1-19-D-0015). Direct Energy Business LLC, Iselin, New Jersey, has been awarded a $44,276,459 firm-fixed-price, requirements contract to supply and deliver retail electricity and ancillary/incidental services. This was a competitive acquisition with 11 offers received. This is a 36-month contract with no option periods. Locations of performance are Maryland, Washington, District of Columbia, and New Jersey, with a Dec. 31, 2021, performance completion date. Using military service is Navy. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2019 through 2022 Navy working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Energy, Fort Belvoir, Virginia (SPE60419D8001). Kinder Morgan Tank Storage Terminal LLC, Carson, California, has been awarded a $40,510,848 firm-fixed-price contract to receive, store and ship aviation fuel. This was a competitive acquisition with one offer received. This is a four-year contract with one five-year option period. Location of performance is California, with a Nov. 9, 2022, performance completion date. Using customer is Defense Logistics Agency Energy. Type of appropriation is fiscal year 2019 through 2022 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Energy, Fort Belvoir, Virginia (SPE603-19-C-5001). ARMY M.C. Dean Inc., Tysons Corner, Virginia (W912GB-19-D-0002); and PAE Professional Services LLC, Falls Church, Virginia (W912GB-19-D-0001), will compete for each order of the $49,900,000 firm-fixed-price contract for construction surveillance services. Bids were solicited via the internet with six received. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion date of Nov. 2, 2024. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Wiesbaden, Germany, is the contracting activity. DRS Sustainment Systems Inc., St. Louis, Missouri, was awarded a $17,274,668 modification (P00032) to contract W56HZV-16-C-0028 for Joint Assault Bridges. Work will be performed in West Plains, Missouri, with an estimated completion date of May 11, 2024. Fiscal 2018 other procurement, Army funds in the amount of $17,274,668 were obligated at the time of the award. U.S. Army Contracting Command, Warren, Michigan, is the contracting activity. AIR FORCE Applied Research Solutions, Beavercreek, Ohio, has been awarded a $38,788,878 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract, plus an option amount of $5,967,447, for sensing, learning, autonomy, and knowledge engineering research and development. This contract is to conduct research and develop multi-domain technologies and strategies to orchestrate closed-loop sensing that manages knowledge from environment understanding to mission effects, across multiple missions. Work will be performed at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and in Dayton, Ohio, and is expected to be completed by March 4, 2024. Fiscal 2019 research and development funds in the amount of $1,254,000 are being obligated at the time of award. Air Force Research Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, is the contracting activity (FA8650-19-C-1692). Honeywell International Inc., Albuquerque, New Mexico, has been awarded a $7,838,175 firm-fixed-priced contract for the repair and upgrade of the C-5M Super Galaxy's Versatile Integrated Avionics/Avionics Integrated Units (VIA/AIUs) repair and upgrade. This order subsumes all work on previous order FA8625-18-F-6801, providing for the repair and upgrade of 85 of the existing -903 and -904 configuration VIA/AIUs to the -905 configuration. Work will be performed in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and is expected to be completed by July 5, 2020. This award is the result of a sole-source acquisition. Fiscal 2017 aircraft procurement funds in the amount of $7,146,972; and fiscal 2018 aircraft procurement funds in the amount of $691,203 are being obligated at the time of award. Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, is the contracting activity (FA8625-19-F-6801). NAVY CACI Enterprise Solutions Inc., Chantilly, Virginia, was awarded a $26,241,210 firm-fixed-price, cost-plus-fixed-fee task order contract for integrated business systems support services. Information technology services in this contract will assist Military Sealift Command's (MSC) business systems and ashore operations branch manage, operate, and maintain the command's business systems, as well as interfaces with the Navy enterprise defense business systems. Additionally, this contract will allow MSC to integrate all of its business systems into a single, integrated business system to meet emergent and newly mandated requirements specifically, federal compliance mandates such as financial improvement and audit readiness, growing cybersecurity concerns, cloud migration, and interoperability and integration with Navy and federal programs of records. This integrated system is a new requirement, necessitating a single support contract to achieve interoperability, maintain and sustain fleet operations, and effect a total cost of ownership model. This contract includes one 12-month base period and four 12-month options which, if exercised, would bring the cumulative value of this contract to $125,367,596. Work will be performed in Norfolk, Virginia, and is expected to be completed Dec. 31, 2019. If options are exercised, work will continue through Dec. 31, 2023. Fiscal 2019 working capital funds (Navy and Transportation Command) in the amount of $19,718,408 will be obligated at the time of award. Funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was competitively procured, with proposals solicited via the National Institutes of Health Information Technology Acquisition and Assessment Center's CIO-SP3 website, with four offers received. The Navy's Military Sealift Command, Norfolk, Virginia, is the contracting activity (N3220519F1044). (Awarded Nov. 5, 2018) CORRECTION: Contracts awarded on Oct. 25, 2018, to Central Lake Armor Express Inc.,* Central Lake, Michigan, for a ceiling of $59,369,617 (M67854-19-D-1509) incorrectly stated the production quantity. The correct quantity is 1,322,650 Plate Carrier Generation III - Soft Armor Inserts. Marine Corps Systems Command, Quantico, Virginia, is the contracting activity. *Small Business https://dod.defense.gov/News/Contracts/Contract-View/Article/1683955/source/GovDelivery/

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