27 juillet 2020 | International, Aérospatial
By: Aaron Mehta and Valerie Insinna
This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates.
WASHINGTON — The U.S. State Department has officially loosened restrictions on exporting military-grade unmanned aerial vehicles to foreign nations, a move long sought by the defense industry.
Under a new policy announced Friday, unmanned aerial systems that fly at speeds below 800 kph will no longer be subject to the “presumption of denial” that, in effect, blocked most international sales of drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and the RQ-4 Global Hawk.
R. Clarke Cooper, the assistant secretary bureau of political-military affairs, announced a change to how the United States interprets the Missile Technology Control Regime, or MTCR, Friday. News that the change was imminent, and that it would focus on reinterpreting the regulations with a focus on speed, was first reported Thursday by Defense News.
The U.S. government's interpretation of the export controls had led to a blanket denial of most countries' requests to buy “category-1” systems capable of carrying 500-kilogram payloads for more than 300 kilometers. Instead of having a “presumption of denial” for those drones, where export officials needed special circumstances to allow the sale of the drones, the new guidance would mean those officials would now consider proposed sales using the same criteria as they do for other military exports.
Cooper stressed that the UAVs covere includes “no risk for weapons of mass destruction delivery. Higher-speed systems such as cruise missiles, hypersonic aerial vehicles, and advanced unmanned combat aerial vehicles are not affected by this revision.”
The regulations were primarily introduced to regulate the sale of cruise missiles abroad, but the interpretation also covers certain unmanned vehicles. The United States has been exploring a change in how to interpret the MTCR for some time, with discussions centered around the “presumption of denial” clause for category-1 UAVs.
Speaking at the Hudson Institute shortly after Cooper's remarks, Assistant Secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation Chris Ford stressed said the administration plans to keep pushing other nations in the agreement to come to a similar stance, but that “the United States is not willing to let U.S. interests be forever held hostage” by international decision makers.
Ford also said that there is a specific member of the MTCR “seems to have prioritized reflexive opposition to anything the United States proposes,” and would block any potential changes. Although not listed by name, Ford later indicated he was talking about Russia.
In a statement, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called the move a “reckless decision” that makes it “more likely that we will export some of our deadliest weaponry to human rights abusers across the world.” Menendez has been central in trying to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia over human rights concerns.
Industry impact
The decision primarily opens up sales opportunities for General Atomics and Northrop Grumman, which manufacture multiple slow-moving UAS impacted by the presumption of denial clause. Most medium-altitude, long-endurance systems like General Atomics' MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper fly at slow speeds, with the Reaper clocking in with a cruise speed of 230 mph, or 370 kph, according to an Air Force fact sheet. Northrop Grumman's RQ-4 Global Hawk, a high-altitude drone used for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, flies at a cruise speed of about 357 mph, or 575 kph.
Immediately after the announcement, both companies issued statement heralding the change.
“It is critical for our national security that our export policies continue to keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology and support collaboration with our allies,” said Northrop Grumman spokesman Tim Paynter. He pointed to the company's MQ-8 Fire Scout as another UAS that could be more widely exported as a result of the new interpretation.
In addition, Niki Johnson, General Atomic's vice president for government affairs and strategic communications, said “We welcome the changes announced today that will alter the treatment of General Atomics' UAS under U.S. export policy. We look forward to this announcement leading to approvals for sales to a larger portion of the international market.”
Ford declined to speculate about how much money may trade hands as a result of the change, aside from broadly saying he expects it will have a “ripple effect” for countries who may be on the market for unmanned systems.
While broadly seen by the defense industry as a positive step forward, one industry source expressed concerns that the changes announced Friday could ultimately be toothless. In April 2018, the Trump administration announced a number of policy reforms aimed at speeding up the sales process, such as allowing certain UAS to be exported via the Direct Commercial Sales process as opposed to the more laborious Foreign Military Sales process. But those changes did not have the intended consequences, the industry official said.
“Implementation of the 2018 policy was very slow. It did not actually lead to that many new approvals in terms of countries that we can export to. So while we think this change will help us overcome the MTCR question during the policy review process, we still think that there is a higher hurdle for UAS within the conventional arms transfer policy ordeal,” the source said.
Companies could still hit “brick walls” within the normal State Department arms sale process if, for instance, the department finds that drone sales negatively alter the military balance among countries in a given region.
“The question for us is: Does this lead to policy approvals that allow us to go sell?” the source said. This person added that if sales do not immediately begin to move forward, it's possible that — should former Vice President Joe Biden win the presidential election in November — the incoming Democratic administration could roll back the MTCR interpretation changes.
During a phone call with reporters, Cooper stressed that the change in policy will not result in a blanket approval for all UAS sales.
“It is case by case,” he said. “It's not just a matter of addressing the [MTCR] requirement, because while UAS systems vary widely in their sophistication and application, it's incumbent upon the United States that we ensure that the systems we sell are used responsibly and will not threaten our interest or those of our allies.”
Rachel Stohl, vice president for defense issues at the Stimson Center, called the unilateral decision by the White House “yet another affront to international agreements and global arms controls.”
“Let me be clear: A presumption of denial is not a ‘no,' ” Stohl said. “It just means you have to work a little harder to get to ‘yes' and ensure that a lethal system that can change the nature of conflict, has raised serious questions and concerns about the legitimacy, legality, and strategic efficacy of their use, and has demonstrably impacted civilian lives is in the best interest of the United States.
“Once again, the Trump administration is focused on short-term economic gain rather than medium- to long-term security and foreign policy interests.”
But Michael Horowitz, a professor and director of the Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, argues that the change is long overdue.
“Treating uninhabited aircraft as missiles for export policy purposes doesn't work,” Horowitz said. “It has allowed China to capture a significant chunk of the drone export market, including with U.S. allies and partners.”
However, Horowitz added that the decision to focus on speed may miss the big picture. “Rather than simply treating uninhabited aircraft as aircraft for export purposes, the new policy creates a speed test that addresses issues for current platforms,” he said. “Depending on implementation, this could be a policy improvement, but it could also lead to issues down the road as the uninhabited aircraft category evolves.”
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Michael Bruno Lockheed Martin is looking to new government interest in follow-on modernization (FOM) upgrades of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to drive future business returns on top of what could be ballooning sustainment revenue, according to the company's chief financial officer (CFO). CFO Ken Possenriede told a Credit Suisse investor conference this month that FOM and sustainment will drive business growth out of the F-35 for Lockheed and its shareholders as production returns shrink with unit price reductions and maturing production. “We ended the SDD [system design and development] program, but the customer still is looking at capability that they want,” he told financial analysts and investors. “So you'll see growth there and in sustainment.” Lockheed Martin expects to deliver 131 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters this year, compared with 91 in 2018, and should deliver 140 in 2020. Over the next few years, Lockheed expects total international demand for the F-35 to drive production to about 175 a year, most of which will be built in Fort Worth, but with some finished in Japan or Italy. But because the price per aircraft has been reduced 13% over low-rate production lots 11-14, to below $80 million per jet for the A variant, that part of the program–“the lion's share” now–is increasingly becoming minimized as a moneymaker. “The reduction in price has been faster than the ramp-up in quantity,” Possenriede said. “So it's going to be, at least in the short term, [that] you'll probably see modest growth in production revenue.” Lockheed won the original $19 billion SDD contract in 2001, but spending on the FOM, also called Block 4 improvements, could reach an additional $16 billion under Pentagon plans discussed last year. At the same time, the F-35 fleet is expected to more than double from about 400 aircraft to 1,000 in the next couple of years. “You'll have more sparing, some more repairing,” he said. “But then you'll see a larger influx of the modification work that will get done, and you'll see sustainment over the next couple of years double. So that will be a faster piece of the revenue.” The company is about one-third complete in standing up repair base facilities now. Lockheed also continues to promote a performance-based logistics contract for the F-35, the CFO noted. “We provided a white paper, call it an unsolicited proposal, that basically commits to the 80% availability and it commits to the $25,000 per flight hour, which we think is the right number to get to,” he said Dec. 5. The F-35 currently costs $35,000 a flight hour. https://aviationweek.com/defense/lockheed-looks-more-f-35-development-work
10 janvier 2020 | International, Aérospatial, C4ISR
DAVID PUGLIESE, OTTAWA CITIZEN Updated: January 10, 2020 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Thursday that Canada has intelligence indicating a Ukrainian passenger jet that crashed outside Tehran was shot down by an Iranian-surface-to-air missile. Trudeau declined to get into details about where that information came from but U.S. missile defence satellites likely played a key role in providing some of that intelligence data. Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 was destroyed Wednesday shortly after it took off from Tehran. All 176 people on board died, including 63 Canadians. “We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence,” Trudeau said at a news conference Thursday. “The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.” U.S. officials were already stating the same conclusion earlier in the day. The U.S. has a constellation of missile warning satellites that are equipped with various sensors that use, among other capabilities, infrared technologies to detect the launch of a rocket. Many of the details about how the system works and transfers information are secret. But the Space Based Infrared System or SBIRS consists of four main satellites, each costing more than $2 billion. The first was launched in 2011 and the latest put in orbit in 2018. The U.S. military also has the capability to intercept communications between Iranian commanders and anti-aircraft missile batteries which would have provided the Pentagon insight into what might have transpired around the time the Ukrainian passenger jet crashed. Canada also has its own communications intelligence gathering capabilities which are considered top notch. The Canadian government didn't release any information on what type of surface-to-air missile could have been involved. But photos that are said to have been taken near the crash site have been circulating on social media. IHS Markit, which includes the Jane's military publications, reported that the photographs appeared to show the guidance portion of a Russian-built Tor SA-15 short-range, surface-to-air missile. Russia sold 29 Tor systems to Iran in 2007. The system is designed for destroying aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles. It can hit targets up to 12 kilometres away. U.S. government officials also told CBS News that American surveillance systems detected that shortly before the Ukrainian airline crash, Iranian anti-aircraft radars were activated. U.S. surveillance satellites then detected two heat signatures, believed to be the launch of two SA-15 missiles, according to CBS. Another heat signature detected shortly after was believed to be the Ukrainian passenger jet exploding. But why would the Iranians allegedly shoot down an aircraft full of its own citizens? Human error or bad intelligence could be to blame. The crash took place just hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles against American bases in Iraq in retaliation for the U.S. assassination of a top Iranian general in Bagdad. Iran's anti-aircraft missile crews would have been on high alert for any U.S. military response. “This may well have been unintentional,” Trudeau said of the alleged missile launch. U.S. President Donald Trump, like Trudeau, has also suggested the crash could have been the result of a mistake. “It was flying in a pretty rough neighborhood,” the president said of the Ukraine Airlines passenger jet. “Someone could have made a mistake on the other side.” Iran, however, denies that the aircraft was shot down by one of its missiles. Iranian Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi dismissed such allegations as “psychological warfare” being spread by foreign-based Iranian opposition groups. Ali Abedzadeh of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization also dismissed such claims. “Scientifically, it is impossible that a missile hit the Ukrainian plane and such rumors are illogical,” he stated. He noted that several domestic and foreign flights were flying at the same altitude of 8,000 feet as the Ukrainian passenger jet at the time of the incident. But shortly before the crash, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration announced an emergency flight restriction for U.S. airlines flying over areas of Iraq and Iran. The FAA warned of the “potential for miscalculation or misidentification” of civilian planes because of increased military tensions in those areas. https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/u-s-satellites-intercepts-of-iranian-communications-could-support-claims-missile-destroyed-passenger-jet