11 juin 2020 | International, Aérospatial, C4ISR, Sécurité

Roper Pushes Moving Project Maven To Air Force

Roper expects GBSD, B-21 and F-35 to migrate parts of their development to cloudONE as he pushes the Air Force to embrace advanced software practices.

By on June 11, 2020 at 4:01 AM

WASHINGTON: Air Force acquisition czar Will Roper says he is considering taking over DoD's artificial intelligence (AI) experiment, Project Maven, to make it operational while the service pushes its own AI capabilities into the field.

“I was just speaking with USDI today about the potential of transitioning Maven over to the Air Force and making it an operational reality day-to-day,” Roper said.

Project Maven begun in 2017, was designed to put machine-learning to work to sort through the masses of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) data generated by DoD and Intelligence Community (IC) platforms. It has been a bit controversial, with Google pulling out of the effort in 2018; and the head of Air Combat Command head Gen. Mike Holmes saying he didn't believe it was ready for prime time.

Roper explained that the Air Force was best positioned to take on Project Maven because of its progress in standing up capabilities under its Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS) family of systems, each dubbed with the prefix ONE. This includes the cloudONE for remote data storage, processing and access; platformONE for securely building software; the dataONE library; and the deviceONE that allows secure remote access to classified data.

Via the ABMS effort, which is the Air Force's flagship for enabling Joint All Domain Command and Control, the Air Force has been able to build the “AI infrastructure” that allows an AI system to actually do analysis, Roper stressed.

“That boring part, the AI infrastructure, is what has been critically absent in the Department, and we are finally doing it in the Air Force,” Roper said. “So cloudONE, platformONE, dataONE — this family of ONE systems — builds a tech stack that really is about getting data in proper custody so that analytics can be built on top of it and we can finally go do AI at scale.”

The key, he said, is “data curation and custody, so that that data is discoverable by analytics algorithms that are able to assess its import to different missions, and then push it to the machine, without having to have people be inside the loop.” And that, of course, is what Project Maven focused on, the algorithms.

Roper said the Air Force already has an “AI at scale operational today with the Distributed Common Ground System” as well as one being used for “predictive maintenance” that the service hopes have in use for 16 different assets within the next 18 months.

The DCGS family of systems, an effort that began way back in 1998, is DoD's flagship capability for providing daily processing, exploitation and production of analysis from DoD to ISR platforms. Predictive maintenance is using AI to figure out what parts of a weapon system or platform are likely to break next, to ease and speed logistics planning.

In both these instances, he explained, the environment is benign. That won't be so on the battlefield, where adversaries will be attempting to hack and spoof US AI systems — something that he says is all too easily done today.

“It's harder than meets the eye to try to teach an algorithm to know that something is messing with them,” he said. “They inherently trust their data.”

“I think there is this belief that that AI will just churn through it — throw enough data at it and everything will be okay — and that's not the case,” he elaborated. “We need another generation of this technology.”

Thus, for the moment, the best solution is for humans and machines to work in tandem — as the Air Force is looking to do with the Skyborg project and the development of an AI co-pilot Roper has nicknamed R2D2. “We need to be pairing our AI with people,” Roper stressed.

Still, Roper is enthusiastic about the progress made by the ABMS effort toward AI, including working with Northern Command on its response to COVID-19 — helping predict where pandemic hot spots might arise.

“We're excited that we have that first taste of AI changing operations,” he enthused. “That AI flag has now been planted for the department. We have seen a future that only silicon was able to see; the human brain was not. If we can get that out onto the battlefield and use the ABMS event in September as our stepping stone, then what a wonderful step towards getting our department and our military away from thinking of itself primarily in terms of the platforms that produce data, and rather instead of the insights that are created by that data, many of them being created by AI,” he said.

(The Air Force is planning the second “ABMS OnRamp,” to follow the debut field demonstration in December, for the first week of September. As Breaking D readers know, that second exercise will feature a scenario centered on Space Command operations.)

Roper also waxed enthusiastic about the recent decision by the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC) to move its development operations to cloudONE. They are not alone, he said.

“I believe that portions of the Aegis Weapon System, and the F-18 are also using cloudONE for development,” he said.

The Air Force has “put a ton of effort into getting it certified at the various security levels, classified to critical unclassified information,” he added. CloudONE now can be used with secret-level and Top Secret/Special Access Program (TS/SAP) level data, and Roper said that by the end of June it will be certified for use with Secret/Special Access Program level data.

This makes it available to software developers across security levels, and opens the door for use by more Air Force weapons development programs, he explained.

For example, Roper said that the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent Program (GBSD) “will absolutely be using cloudONE and platformONE for its development.” And, he said, in talking with the F-35 program office he expects “they will do some portion of their development” using cloudONE.

Further, he said the highly classified B-21 bomber program will be “moving in at the right point for them.” He noted that prime contractor Northrop Grumman has just demonstrated the use of Kubernetes — a software development technique that helps manage multiple “containerized applications” (i.e. with its own operating system) across multiple machines in a secure manner — on flight-ready hardware. Indeed, he noted, the B-21 program involves an initiative called DevStar that is trying to establish an autonomous testing capability.

An Air Force spokesperson said in a statement that DevStar is “an Air Force initiative to use modern software development paradigms to rapidly deliver software to weapon systems while continually meeting safety, security, airworthiness and other compliance requirements that traditionally are performed in serial.” The Air Force website on the initiative shows it is trying to go beyond DevSecOps that seeks to build IT security into software upfront — to include super-high security and safety measures that will allow use in developing highly classified nuclear weapons-related systems.

“And you're gonna keep seeing more of the Air Force move into this,” Roper said. “You will hear people use terms like Agile Development and DevOps and DevSecOps — they are not all the same. The tech stack underneath that is producing the software matters.”

PlatformONE, he said, is one critical tool in producing software for the Air Force. “It is what is automating all those things that we have people doing today and people doing them in serial,” he said. And, he added, the use of platformONE and cloudONE in combination is “magic” that allows the sharing of software code across weapon systems development programs.

“One of my ambitions for this year is to have code that's been written for, say, B-21 run on F-16 and vice versa, and not have any humans check it in between.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/roper-pushes-moving-project-maven-to-air-force

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  • Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 12, 2020

    12 novembre 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

    Contract Awards by US Department of Defense - November 12, 2020

    DEFENSE MICROELECTRONICS ACTIVITY Globalfoundries U.S. 2 LLC, Hopewell Junction, New York, has been awarded a ceiling increase of $400,000,000 under modification P00068 to previously awarded contract HQ0727-16-C-0001 for access to leading edge, current and legacy microelectronics and trusted processes for the Department of Defense and other federal agencies. Increase in interest for leading edge technology and lifetime orders for end of life technology initiated the need for this ceiling increase. The modification brings the total cumulative face value of the contract to $1,114,632,911 from $714,632,911. Work will be performed at Burlington, Vermont; East Fishkill, New York; and Malta, New York, with an expected completion date of March 31, 2021. The contract is being incrementally funded and no funds are being obligated at time of award. The Defense Microelectronics Activity, McClellan, California, is the contracting activity. NAVY AgustaWestland Philadelphia Corp., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is awarded a $171,047,763 modification (P00006) to previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract N61340-20-C-0007. This modification exercises options for the production and delivery of 36 TH-73A aircraft in support of the Advanced Helicopter Training System program. Work will be performed in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (87%); Mineral Wells, Texas (5%); and various locations outside the continental U.S. (8%), and is expected to be completed in December 2022. Fiscal 2021 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $171,047,763 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. J. Walter Thompson U.S.A. LLC, doing business as Wunderman Thompson, Atlanta, Georgia, is awarded an $80,056,529 modification to previously awarded firm-fixed-price contract M95494-19-C-0020. This modification exercises Option Period One to furnish supplies and services to enhance the Marine Corps' recruiting efforts. These services include a full range of services from the development of a tactical advertising strategy to the production of a wide-range of advertising formats (e.g., television, radio, print media, internet and direct marketing). Work will be performed in Atlanta, Georgia, with an expected completion date of December 2021. Fiscal 2021 operation and maintenance (Marine Corps) funds in the amount of $80,056,529 are obligated at time of award and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Marine Corps Installations Command Contracting Office, Arlington, Virginia, is the contracting activity. Honeywell International Inc., Tempe, Arizona, is awarded a $72,944,708 for a long-term, firm-fixed-priced requirements contract for the repair of six weapon repairable assemblies in support of the V-22 aircraft. This contract includes a five-year base period with no options. Work will be performed in Torrance, California (44%); Tucson, Arizona (35%); San Diego, California (15%); and Tempe, Arizona (6%). Work is expected to be completed by November 2025. Annual working capital funds (Navy) will be obligated as individual task orders are issued and funds will not expire at the end of the current fiscal year. One firm was solicited for this non-competitive requirement under authority 10 U.S. Code 2304 (c)(1), with one offer received. The Naval Supply Systems Command, Weapon Systems Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is the contracting activity (N00383-21-D-XP01). Raytheon Co., El Segundo, California, is awarded a $53,440,000 modification (P00004) to previously awarded fixed-price-incentive-fee contract N00019-20-C-0001. This modification exercises an option to procure 16 AN/APG-79(V)4 radar systems. Additionally, this modification includes software, obsolescence management, engineering support and associated technical, financial and administrative data necessary for retrofit integration into the F/A-18C/D aircraft for the Marine Corps. Work will be performed in Forest, Mississippi (41.1%); El Segundo, California (32.6%); Andover, Massachusetts (18.3%); and Dallas, Texas (8%), and is expected to be completed in June 2022. Fiscal 2021 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $53,440,000 will be obligated at time of award, none of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity. Vigor Marine LLC, Portland, Oregon, is awarded a $24,049,402 modification to previously awarded contract N00024-19-C-4447 to support USS Chosin (CG 65) extended dry-docking selected restricted availability. Work will be performed in Seattle, Washington, and is expected to be complete by October 2021. Fiscal 2021 operation and maintenance (Navy) funding in the amount of $24,049,402 will be obligated at the time of award and will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility, Everett, Washington, is the contracting activity. AIR FORCE General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., Poway, California, has been awarded an $81,866,402 cost-plus-fixed-fee and firm-fixed-price modification (P00014) to contract FA8620-18-C-2009 for the U.K. MQ-9B Protector program. This modification provides for the design, development, integration and component-level testing of additional capabilities being added to the baseline program. Work will be performed in Poway, California, and is expected to be completed Aug. 31, 2021. Total cumulative face value of the contract is not-to-exceed $174,889,865. Foreign Military Sales funds in the amount of $71,563,692 are being obligated at the time of award. 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This was a competitive acquisition with 105 offers received. This is a five-year contract with no option periods. Location of performance is Illinois, with a Nov. 11, 2025, ordering period end date. Using customers are Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and federal civilian agencies. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2021 through 2026 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Troop Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (SPE2D1-21-D-0001). Cummins Inc., Commercial and Government Entity, Memphis, Tennessee, has been awarded an estimated $24,869,181 fixed-price with economic-price-adjustment for multiple weapon systems program support. This was a sole-source acquisition using justification 10 U.S. Code 2304 (c)(1), as stated in Federal Acquisition Regulation 6.302-1. This is a two-year base contract with four two-year option periods. Location of performance is Tennessee, with a Nov. 11, 2022, performance completion date. Using military services are Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. Type of appropriation is fiscal 2021 through 2023 defense working capital funds. The contracting activity is the Defense Logistics Agency Land and Maritime, Columbus, Ohio (SPE7LX-21-D-0007). ARMY Tutor Perini Corp., Sylmar, California, was awarded a $25,998,795 firm-fixed-price contract for renovation of the Cadet Field House at the U.S. Air Force Academy. Bids were solicited via the internet with five received. Work will be performed in Colorado Springs, Colorado, with an estimated completion date of Nov. 24, 2022. Fiscal 2021 operation and maintenance (Air Force) funds in the amount of $25,998,795 were obligated at the time of the award. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha, Nebraska, is the contracting activity (W9128F-21-C-0004). *Small business https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2413459/

  • xTechSearch: Army Picks Top 10 Tech Innovators

    23 mars 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre, C4ISR, Sécurité

    xTechSearch: Army Picks Top 10 Tech Innovators

    From throwable cameras to magnetic brakes, from disease prevention to battlefield networks, these small businesses have technologies the Army really wants. Read on to find out why. By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR. WASHINGTON: Miniaturized electromechanical compasses so you can still find your way when the enemy's jammed GPS. 360 degree cameras you can throw into a building before you storm it. 60-minute screening for pathogens like COVID-19. Those are just three of the winning ideas in the latest round of the Army's Expeditionary Technology Search program, the service's push to get high tech out of small biz. This week, 20 small businesses made their pitches to a panel of Army judges — and in a suitably 21st century touch, it was all done via the web, since the AUSA Huntsville conference where the pitches were originally to take place was canceled because of the coronavirus. (Click here for all our virtual and surrogate AUSA coverage). Yesterday, in a brief webcast, xTechSearch program manager Zeke Topolosky read out the 10 semifinal winners, who'll receive $120,000 each and – even more important for many of the competitors – access to Army expert mentors to help refine their pitch and their product for military use. One final winner will be picked to receive $250,000 this fall, hopefully at AUSA's grand annual meeting in October if the coronavirus permits. Topolosky spoke to me at length by phone after the announcement. What follows, in his own words (edited for brevity and clarity), is what excited the Army about each of the 10 winners. Zeke Topolosky, Program Manager, Army xTechSearch: It's 20 semifinalists that presented the last two days. This is a selection of all of the top technologies from all of the different technology areas. All that is evaluated by 28 judges over the past two days, from all different fields, very senior technical experts, acquisition experts, end users, and soldiers. We had to come to a consensus agreement on the ten that would move on to the finals. Bounce Imaging, they've made a tactical throwable camera, but it's not just throwable. It can be used mounted on a canine, on a person, on a vehicle, and it gives you a complete 360 degree spherical view. They're working on this in both color and IR [infrared]. And they were working on continuing to miniaturize that technology. And it stabilizes at all times. Imagine a body-worn camera [on someone] running through a building: You can't really follow that video. This device kept the video always oriented in one direction that the users requested, and stabilized, at all times. So it really had a lot of immediate use in things like breaching buildings, subterranean investigation, where they could just toss this into a building and get complete 360 degree situational awareness, day and night. GeneCapture, a very strong company, lots of amazing expertise on their staff. Obviously, they made some references to coronavirus [testing]. What they can do is detect infections and pathogens from a deployable, portable system, and do it rapidly. They have the ability to test for multiple things at once. Most detection systems like this, they're testing for one pathogen at a time, and it has to be done in a laboratory. They were pitching the ability to do this downrange, and to test for multiple things. When you have a soldier downrange, not in a hospital or in a medical station, who may have some illness, you have to sort of guess on treating them, or not treat them at all till they get proper testing, which could lead to administering the wrong medication, or no medication. This would allow a field medic to do those tests, real time, and know exactly what they're dealing with. Inductive Ventures. This is a magnetic braking technology. Now, this company pitched numerous use cases for magnetic brakes versus the carbon brakes that we normally use, but for the xTech competition, they focused on braking for helicopters. Right now, when you land a helicopter, you have no way of moving that machine without either turning on the engine or towing by other vehicles. With this technology, you would enable helicopter operators, if they were to land in an emergency, or have to move their vehicle without it fully functioning, they can do that with this magnetic braking. We did have several helicopter pilots in our judging panel who were saying, “This is revolutionary for us.” We even had an example of somebody having to do an emergency landing on a soccer field with a Huey overseas, due to mechanical failure. And then once they landed, they literally had no way of moving that helicopter. They left it. This would have enabled them to be able to move it around and work on it. IoT/AI, these guys kind of blew the socks off the judges. Essentially, they had a device that was hardened against cyber attacks and other interference. They're also able to do all this on an edge device, in this black box that you can take to the field, as opposed to having to send data back to a server. It's just one less vulnerability. Everything can be done there on the edge. It's kind of the golden nugget for deploying AI for the Army, where it's going to be done in forward deployed areas, without infrastructure, without these computing resources that are power draining, in vulnerable areas where the enemy is trying to mess them up. Deploying artificial intelligence in the Army is going to be way more difficult than all the things we see being developed on the commercial side, from self-driving cars to Alexa. Lots of people are developing algorithms, but we don't necessarily have the hardware to make that a reality for the Army, that's really sort of missing right now. IOT/AI, what they're providing is some of the hardware solutions to make that a reality. LynQ Technologies, this was a very strong company, it had strong VC backing, which de-risks a lot for the Army, and they've also been recognized by Techstars, out of the Air Force. It's a very mature product. There's a real near-term win with this, because it's a ready-to-go product that we could be using now to locate injured soldiers in the field, downed pilots, lost cargo, et cetera. It was a very strong company, well-backed on the commercial side. They clearly had a capability that they could deliver the Army now that we don't have. KeriCure – deployable wound care products. Like LynQ, this was a very mature product: You can go on Amazon and buy their product now. It was just a wonder why the Army doesn't have this in their kit. Field medics right now could be using this. Yes, there's some testing that would have to be done with to validate some of the claims, and there is possibly some more development work that has to go into packaging it better for field use. But it's a mature product that can give immediate, lifesaving capability to soldiers now. The Army deals with wounds that can't be dressed properly immediately, that lead to infections. And what this product does, it's a dressing you spray on wounds to prevent those infections from occurring. We had some combat medics in the group, and they all agreed they could use this in their kit right now. MEI Micro, it's a MEMS [Micro Electronic-Mechanical System] IMU [Inertial Measurement Unit]. It's an order of magnitude improvement on position, navigation, and timing capabilities that we have now. When you're GPS-denied, the solutions that are out there — including quantum clocks and gyro [gyroscopic] devices — are very expensive, and they're under development. What they presented showed a leap-ahead capability for a far lower cost. If it can be realized, it's a game changer here for assured position, navigation, and timing, which helps you with things like communications, navigation, et cetera, especially in a congested or a GPS-denied environment. Multiscale Systems, this is a company that competed in a previous round of xTech, when they were a little less mature. They had a meta-material, an engineered material, so you could customize the properties of the material and how you build it. They're able to make materials for air traffic, cargo, and even lining truck beds, much lighter, much stronger than what we currently have, and for cheaper. With the Army where, especially in logistics and transportation, they can have an immediate impact and save a lot of money and a lot of weight, especially when airdropping cargo and containers and things like that. Beyond that, there just seems to be a lot of other applications for these materials. Granted, they will need some work in lowering the cost to produce them, but the product itself could be a huge cost savings for the Army and lighten the load a lot in aircraft and ground logistics platforms. Novaa, that's the next generation SATCOM [satellite communications]. What these guys are proposing is a brand-new way of handling the spectrum. In the Army, we are constantly having to tap into multiple frequencies, so you'll see vehicles, aircraft driving around with lots of antennas on them. If you're on SATCOM, if you have a radar system, if you're doing high frequency, ultra-high frequency, everything requires a different physical antenna — and all of these antennas take up space. Not only that, they stick out, they get snagged, get caught, these antennas break. And worst of all, they are targets. They're highly visible. They stick out like a sore thumb, and they let the enemy know, hey, this is a vehicle of importance, it's got communication gear or sensor gear. What they are offering is an antenna designed to replace all those antennas with one single aperture, with a very low profile. The space savings, the drag savings, and the concealed nature of it, on top of having the complexity and the cost of all these antennas replaced with just one, was very appealing. It was the antenna design, but it was the architecture that goes with it as well, to be able to handle from one aperture, all these other systems that have to tap into that antenna. Really a potentially revolutionary way of approaching the spectrum. Vita Inclinata is the last one. This is another repeat company, they had previously been in the competition and had come back. They make a stabilization system for helicopters that are hoisting up either cargo or gurneys with injured people on them. This is a huge problem in the rescue operations, where a little gust or just the wrong movement can cause a load to spin out of control. There's instances where the Army is dropping expensive cargo because it would bring down the helicopter when they get into a spin, even losing injured people that are being medevac'ed because of these spins. Even rigging these hoist systems is extremely dangerous and requires somebody on the ground. Vita Inclinata, they've developed fully autonomous solution that completely stabilizes any loads, from just a wounded person to tens of thousands of pounds of cargo. They have a ready-to-go, pretty well tested device that could be added on to any helicopter. Since last year, their company has progressed a lot, with lots of interest across the services and the commercial side, landed some good investments and contracts. And this time around, they really understood where the niche was, where the Army needed this the most. Last year, they were trying to talk to the Future Vertical Lift folks about, “your new aircraft could use this.” But it's really all the helicopters, especially the existing ones that we're using now. The Army does not have this capability and it's desperately needed. https://breakingdefense.com/2020/03/xtechsearch-army-picks-top-10-tech-innovators

  • What does 2019 hold for Russia’s drones?

    27 décembre 2018 | International, Aérospatial

    What does 2019 hold for Russia’s drones?

    By: Kelsey D. Atherton To understand the future of Russia's drone program, we have to grasp its present and immediate past. While the modern era of unmanned aircraft is perhaps best typified by American Reaper drones flying missions with Hellfire missiles slung under wing, the overall picture of drones in combat has evolved and changed. The Pentagon's primacy in aerial robotics is no longer a sure thing, in part because of the waning unipolar moment and in part because building a drone capability is cheaper today than it was two decades ago. To sort out what the past year means, to see if any of the battlefield experience from the multiple irregular wars Russia is part of has factored into drone design or force planning, C4ISRNET spoke with Samuel Bendett, an adviser at the Center for Naval Analyses and a Fellow in Russia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council. C4ISRNET: Bottom line up front: What's the single sentence takeaway for next year in Russian drones? BENDETT: As Russia develops its lineup of long-range UCAVs [unmanned combat aerial vehicles], it will challenge American dominance with such technologies that Washington held for the past 17-18 years. C4ISRNET: That's ambitious, to say the least. How is the Ministry of Defence preparing to make that challenge, and did Russia learn anything from fighting in Syria that might lead to changes in how it uses drones in 2019? BENDETT: [The week of Dec. 17] marked a series of key announcements from the Russian Ministry of Defence about the country's growing unmanned aerial systems capabilities. Going into Syria in 2015, Russia was lacking a key combat element — the ability to hit targets quickly following their identification, one of the key functions of UCAVs around the world today. Moscow's experience in Syria underscored that point — despite fielding a large number of ISR drones that enabled Russian to be more precise in combat, the majority of targets were hit by manned aviation or manned artillery forces. Hence, the push today to field an entire lineup of strike UAVs for a diverse range of missions. Public statements by the Russian government and the military establishment also highlight the importance of unmanned systems for the country's military and its ability to wage war. Just recently, President Putin stated key propriety areas for his military in 2019 — among them was an emphasis on unmanned and robotic systems development. C4ISRNET: What sort of drones are we seeing in that push? BENDETT: The Ministry of Defence mentioned work on a strike version of Forpost mid-range drone. The Forpost UAV is a license copy of an Israeli “Searcher,” itself a design that is decades old at this point. Capable of distances up to 250 kilometers, it is currently Russia's longest-ranged drone. Under the earlier license agreement with Israel, this UAV could only be assembled as an ISR version. Russian military valued this particular unmanned vehicle and has long wanted to turn into something more than an extra pair of eyes in the sky. Today, UZGA Defence enterprise is claiming that the “Russified” version of that UAV is full of Russian-made components, so that no further cooperation with Israel would be necessary. Putting a strike package on Forpost would give Russian an immediate ability to hit targets within a 250 kilometer range — in other words, giving it the ability to strike most adversary targets in Syria where Russian forces are still conducting operations. Given that Forpost itself is an older UAV model, it's likely that the Russian military will use it as a test bed to further refine its UAV manufacturing abilities, as well as to test indigenous munitions for UAV missions. It's likely that out of all UAVs listed by the MOD, this particular one will reach the Russian forces sooner than others. C4ISRNET: What about the Orion? BENDETT: The Ministry also named Orion UAV as another unmanned vehicle to fully see the light of day in 2019. Orion has similar characteristics to Forpost, such as range, at least as advertised at international arms expos [250 kilometers]. It is possible that its range could be extended further — current Orion versions are showcased as ISR models, but there were discussions that it could be offered for export as armed version. This particular UAV has similar design features to the ever-growing family of unmanned aerial vehicles all over the world — it bears close resemblance to the American RQ-9 Reaper, Chinese CH-4 and Ch-5 drones, as well as to the Iranian Shahed and Turkish Anka UAVs. 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Its speed — up to 1000 km/hr — and weight — up to 20 tonnes — means that a host of aerodynamic, electronic and hi-tech issues need to be worked out. C4ISRNET: Should we hold our breath waiting for the Ohotnik test flights? BENDETT: Given the delays experienced with “Altius,” MOD would probably be more conservative with Ohotnik estimates. However, the very appearance of Ohotnik rising in the air — a stealthy blended-wing design — will be a powerful PR coup for the country that has lagged behind other nations like the United States, Israel and China in actual UCAV examples and combat use. C4ISRNET: What was the Altius, and what happened with it? BENDETT: The Altius was one of the most ambitious UAV projects in Russia — to build an indigenous drone capable of carrying up to 2.5 tonnes of cargo/equipment/weapons to a distance of 10,000 kilometers. Earlier estimates that this UAV would be fully operational by 2018 did not pan out. Delays in production, a lack of key expertise and hi-tech components meant the entire scheduled pushed “to the right” by many years. [The week of Dec. 17] MOD promised that Altius will take to the skies next year — given the fact that Simonov actually produced a prototype that has already flown, that promise may indeed materialize. The real issue will be the quality of that test flight — whether Altius will fly as intended and with the right amount of key equipment. C4ISRNET: How will these drones change the way Russia plans and conducts war? BENDETT: All these UAVs — if and when fielded as planned and as advertised — will give Russia the capability to strike targets at a range anywhere form 250 kilometers and up to several thousand kilometers. This is a flexibility the Russian military has long sought — its Syrian actions depended on manned airborne assets conducting deep-strike against designated targets, which in turn depended on an extensive logistics and infrastructure to support such missions. Having the ability to launch long-range UCAVs from Russian [or Russian-allied] territory would exponentially increase MOD's ability to conduct missions in the near abroad and possibly around the world. Of course, that would depend largely on the domestic defense sector actually delivering what was initially promised, something that some UAV projects have greatly struggled with. C4ISRNET: Russian forces have used small drones quite a bit. Is any of that transferable to using these new, larger drones? BENDETT: While the Russian military has gained extensive experience operating a wide range of close and short-range UAVs, and has commenced force-wide training and usage of these unmanned systems, operating the large and heavy UAVs would be a different story. This kind of technology requires different training, as well as different logistical and infrastructure support. Getting these UCAVs into the military will require a change to existing CONOPS and TTPs, something that will take time as the Russian military will need to become familiar with a different set of technological sophistication. Still, these UAVs are finally moving past the prototype stage — with the Ministry of Defence paying very close attention to these projects, the likely 2019 appearance is guaranteed for these designs. Their eventual acquisition is still years away. Russian UCAV plans will have important implications for the way Moscow thinks about, designs, tests and eventually conducts warfare. C4ISRNET: Describe, let's say, what Russia drone use looks like in 2030 based on these trends. BENDETT: With the influx of high-precision munitions, development of high-tech weapons and the development of various types of UAVs, future conflicts where Russia will be involved will no longer feature Russian military as a “blunt instrument” — the way Russian tech was used in Chechen wars, in Georgia and even in the early stages of the Syrian conflict. If Russia fields the weapons it is currently designing, then it to will join the ranks of high-tech military powers aiming to strike its adversaries with precision. These UCAVs will have a pivotal role in such a construct. C4ISRNET: What are constraints on Russia achieving this vision? BENDETT: Major constraints for Russia to achieve its vision is lack of experience with hi-tech systems — sensors, key electronics, navigation, cameras, etc. Russians have been able to overcome such problems with simpler, smaller drones, but larger MALE/HALE classes are a different story. This led to production and delivery delays, and despite MOD oversight, there was no silver bullet to deal with these issues. Another constraint has been the effect of Western sanctions and Russian ability to import hi-tech systems and components — today's import-substitution effort by Moscow in hi-tech will take time. C4ISRNET: Any last thoughts? BENDETT: As Russia pursues its own version of the “multidomain battle,” unmanned and robotic systems will form key parts of the Russian way of warfare in 2030 and beyond. However, that will depend on the actual capability of the Russian defense sector to field certain unmanned systems. That vision may change based on the reality of producing such systems, given how many T&E and delivery schedules have already been pushed “to the right.” https://www.c4isrnet.com/newsletters/unmanned-systems/2018/12/26/what-does-2019-hold-for-russias-drones

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