22 avril 2020 | International, Naval

Pentagon, Industry Struggle To Chart Impacts Of COVID On Arsenal

"I think a three month slow-down in program activity is an optimistic projection based on the level of damage the economy is currently sustaining."

By on April 21, 2020 at 3:33 PM

WASHINGTON: Defense industry and Pentagon leaders are struggling to assess what impact the COVID-19 pandemic will have on building and maintaining the global US arsenal, but early assessments agree there'll be some disruption and delay as the global economy teeters.

How much, how long, and where those disruptions will occur are something of an open question. With massive supply chains across the globe that run from small mom and pop manufacturing shops to massive global conglomerates, there's no one formula to assess what will happen to the industrial base in the weeks and months to come.

On Monday, Pentagon acquisition chief Ellen Lord said she expects the largest programs to see three-month delays, but some analysts say that assessment could be too rosy.

“I think a three month slow-down in program activity is an optimistic projection based on the level of damage the economy is currently sustaining,” said Andrew Hunter, former chief of staff to two heads of Pentagon acquisition. Hunter is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The designation of the defense industry as critical infrastructure has ensured that shipyards, factories, and shops have generally remained open, as workers stagger shifts and companies provide liberal leave and teleworking where possible. That has placed the defense industry in a good position relative to other parts of the economy. But the supply chain those companies rely on “is tightly interlinked with the commercial economy, especially the aviation and automotive sectors, and this will transmit a degree of economic disruption into defense in the coming months,” Hunter said.

Lord singled out the aerospace sector, along with shipyards and space launch as areas most at risk of slowdown and disruption.

So far, though, the Navy and its largest shipbuilder say they're mostly working through the issues, and are staying away from putting a specific length of time on any delays.

“We do not have a list of programs that are delayed, but as Ms. Lord and [Navy acquisition head James] Guerts have both said, while it's too soon to identify specific delays, generally we are expecting and planning for program disruptions,” Navy spokesman Capt. Danny Hernandez told me in an email. Geurts has moved to accelerate funding for some work and parts supplies so industry can eventually ramp up once the entire workforce is back on the job.

Speaking to reporters last week, Geurts said over the “next three four weeks we'll get a better view of the exact delay and disruption and then how we might mitigate that, or quite frankly, where do we have opportunities where we can accelerate things” due to some excess capacity in the supply base because it's not being consumed by commercial aviation or shipbuilding.

At the country's largest shipbuilder, Huntington Ingalls, company executives told me recently they're not seeing significant reductions in the number of parts they're receiving. “We are working with a few critical suppliers that are having challenges, but I think for the most part are going to be able to get through that,” said Lucas Hicks, vice president of new construction aircraft carrier programs. “We have reached out to all the suppliers and are working with them to try to help them.”

There will be some pain, though how much is up for debate.

Analyst Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners said in a note Monday that a three-month impact might not force companies to drastically change their expectations for the whole year. Any slippages this spring “could conceivably be made up in subsequent months, but that may be a challenge. Contractors could sustain prior guidance and just call out COVID-19 as a risk for the full year, or drop guidance altogether. No one has a perfect crystal ball.”

Hawk Carlisle, president of the National Defense Industrial Association, said on a Monday conference call organized by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America that the slowdown in the global economy “is going to cause things to cost more, whether it's service agreements or products and manufacturing capability.”

He's looking to the next congressional stimulus package for an acknowledgment “that these programs are going to exceed budget,” he added, “because of this two to three months of delays, partial workforce, paying the workforce, inability to perform on contract.”

But Hunter thinks, so far, the Pentagon has handled the situation as well as can be expected: “To the department's credit, they have been aggressively looking for issues in the supply chain, which means that Ms. Lord's estimate becomes a lot more likely if they succeed in staying ahead of these problems.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2020/04/pentagon-industry-struggle-to-chart-impacts-of-covid-on-arsenal

Sur le même sujet

  • Rafale, Airbus A320, Scaf… Comment Safran compte massifier l’usage de l’impression 3D dans les avions

    10 octobre 2022 | International, Aérospatial

    Rafale, Airbus A320, Scaf… Comment Safran compte massifier l’usage de l’impression 3D dans les avions

    Safran a inauguré au Haillan (Gironde) un campus dédié à la fabrication additive, technologie permettant de réduire la masse des pièces...-aero-spatial

  • The US Air Force wants to network all its weapons together. Will simulators be included?

    4 décembre 2019 | International, Aérospatial, C4ISR

    The US Air Force wants to network all its weapons together. Will simulators be included?

    By: Valerie Insinna ORLANDO, Fla. — As the U.S. military prepares for the release of its fiscal 2021 budget request, Air Force leaders have made clear that a massive financial hike is needed for multidomain command-and-control efforts to connect weapon systems across the joint force. As part of that initiative, it will also be critical for the military to link together simulators so service members can replicate combat on a massive scale, Air Force Vice Chief of Staff Stephen Wilson said during a speech Tuesday at the Interservice/Industry, Training, Simulation and Education Conference. “I know you spent a lot of time yesterday about how to connect and integrate simulators from across our various weapons systems. I can't overstate how important that is,” he said. “Individual weapon system simulators can help our men and women become proficient tacticians, but it's their ability to integrate and connect that will differentiate us against a peer threat. And no one is going to win alone." Wilson said the Air Force plans to spend “a lot of money in this next five-year defense plan” on multidomain command and control, but he did not detail how much funding the service might ask for, or whether that sum will include investments in technology to network together simulators. The service is still in the earliest stages of identifying how to connect its aircraft and space assets with the joint force to fight advanced, near-peer threats like Russia and China. The same goes for its aircraft simulators, which are largely detached from each other. An Air Force program called Simulator Common Architecture Requirements and Standards, or SCARS, will start to transform the simulation enterprise and make it more interconnected, said Col. Phillip Carpenter, the Air Force's senior materiel leader for the simulators program office. “It's an effort to make the entire portfolio more modular, more open-system,” he told Defense News in an exclusive interview. “I'm not going to say [SCARS] is the solution to all of our problems,” but it will “help lay that groundwork so that we become much more interoperable across the board.” Under SCARS, the Air Force wants to create a common, open architecture for its simulators that will impose stricter cybersecurity standards and make it easier for the service to update simulators with new capabilities or threat information. The goal, Carpenter said, is to have a fleet of simulators that can remotely receive software updates, much like a smartphone. The Air Force released a SCARS request for proposals in December 2018 for a 10-year contract worth up to $900 million, according to Bloomberg. The service intends to award a contract for SCARS in 2020 and has received a lot of interest from industry, Carpenter said. Carpenter was clear that SCARS — at least how it is currently conceived — will not enable the Air Force to carry out the type of scenarios Wilson spoke about: large-scale, simulated air operations involving simulators of many different airframes. To achieve that, “we need to work on some of the security pieces so that we can allow multilevel security or some of these other aspects that would allow totality of these systems to participate and fight like they would actually fight in a real world,” Carpenter explained. But Carpenter believes there is potential for other parts of the Air Force — like its space, cyber and intelligence community — or even the other services to adopt SCARS or an architecture that is compatible with it. “I think there is great potential for SCARS to be more than something for just aircraft simulators,” he said. “If somebody is off building a system outside of our portfolio, if it's built to a common standard, I think that would effectively make all the systems, whether they're in our portfolio or not, more interoperable.” https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/itsec/2019/12/03/the-us-air-force-wants-to-network-all-its-weapons-together-will-simulators-be-included

  • Rogers summons defense leaders to testify on SPACECOM headquarters

    22 août 2023 | International, Aérospatial

    Rogers summons defense leaders to testify on SPACECOM headquarters

    Chairman Mike Rogers of Alabama intends to hold a hearing with top Defense Department officials involved in moving the Space Command HQ to to Colorado.  

Toutes les nouvelles