16 juin 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval, Terrestre
By: Aaron Mehta
WASHINGTON — Overall nuclear warheads in the world decreased in 2019, but broad modernization efforts by the biggest nuclear countries — along with a degradation of arms control agreements around the world — could mean a dangerous mix for the future, according to an annual report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI.
The organization estimated that at the end of 2019, nine countries possessed a total of 13,400 nuclear warheads, down from the 13,865 estimated in SIPRI's previous report, which in turn was a drop from 14,465 the year before. The reductions were primarily due to numbers dropping under the New START nuclear agreement between Russia and the U.S., which experts largely expect not to be renewed at the start of the new year.
Russia is the largest holder of nuclear warheads, according to SIPRI's numbers, with 6,735 total, of which 1,570 are deployed. The U.S. follows at 5,800, with 1,750 deployed. The two countries account for over 90 percent of the world's nuclear arsenal.
The United Kingdom (250 total, 120 deployed) and France (290 total, 280 deployed) are the other two nations believed to have deployed nuclear warheads. China (320 total), India (150 total), Pakistan (160 total), Israel (90 total) and North Korea, (30-40 total) round out SIPRI's list.
Both the U.S. and Russia are engaged in expensive, widespread modernization efforts of its nuclear arsenal. America is upgrading both its legacy nuclear warheads with new designs, as well as updating its fleet of nuclear-capable bombers, submarines and ICBMs. Earlier this year, the Pentagon deployed for the first time the W76-2, a low-yield variant of the nuclear warhead traditionally used on the Trident submarine launched missile, and early design work is being done on another new submarine launched warhead design, known as the W93.
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Russia, meanwhile, has spoken openly about developing hypersonic weapons that could be nuclear equipped and has invested in novel weapons such as the Status-6, an underwater drone that could be equipped with a nuclear warhead. Moscow has also vocalized new deployment plans for its weapons and on June 2 made official a policy that it may use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack.
Those investments by the world's two nuclear superpowers come against a backdrop of the collapse of numerous arms control agreements. 2019 saw the formal end of the Intermediate Range and Shorter Range Missiles (INF) treaty, and in May the U.S. announced its intention to withdraw from the Open Skies arms control verification agreement.
The last major arms control agreement between Russia and the U.S. is New START, which is set to expire in February of 2021. In recent weeks the U.S. has announced its intention to start negotiations on a new arms control agreement that would include China.
However, Chinese officials have repeatedly and categorically denied that it would be willing to join such an agreement, and experts largely view any efforts to create a trilateral nuclear arms control pact as a New START replacement are non-starters, leading to widespread agreement among analyst that New START is likely doomed under the Trump administration.
“The deadlock over New START and the collapse of the 1987 Soviet–US Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate Range and Shorter Range Missiles (INF) Treaty in 2019 suggest that the era of bilateral nuclear arms control agreements between Russia and the USA might be coming to an end,” said Shannon Kile, Director of SIPRI's nuclear disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation program.
“The loss of key channels of communication between Russia and the USA that were intended to promote transparency and prevent misperceptions about their respective nuclear force postures and capabilities could potentially lead to a new nuclear arms race.”
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Nathan Strout WASHINGTON — The U.S. Space Force has found a new manager for its expanded prototyping organization — the Space Enterprise Consortium — which will oversee $12 billion in awards for space-related projects over the next 10 years. The Space and Missile Systems Center's Space Development Corps selected National Security Technology Accelerator, known as NSTXL, to manage its SpEC Reloaded portfolio to adopt ever-evolving innovations before they're outdated. SMC expects to issue the award on Dec. 31, following a required 30-day congressional notification period. Launched in 2017, SpEC has doled out prototyping awards for everything from new ground systems to a Link 16-enabled space vehicle that shows the location of friendly and enemy forces. SpEC has reduced contract award timelines by 36 percent, grown membership by 55 percent year over year to 441 members, and awarded 80 prototype efforts cumulatively valued at $856 million, according to SMC. “There's no question that SpEC has been an overwhelming success for the government programs that have utilized it to accelerate their prototyping, and for the consortium members to gain a better understanding on the USSF's architectural direction,” said Col. Tim Sejba, program executive officer for SMC's Space Development Corps. Perhaps most importantly, SpEC provides an opening for nontraditional companies to begin working with the Department of Defense on space systems. SpEC helps connect vendors with organizations including the Space Rapid Capabilities Office or even the intelligence community's National Reconnaissance Office using other transaction authorities. OTAs allow “us to get on contract much faster than traditional approaches,” SMC head Lt. Gen. John Thompson said in November. “In addition, the vehicle really lowers the bar for nontraditional contractors to become part of national security space efforts, makes it easier for them to get in the door. In fact, 350 of those 430 members of the consortium are really nontraditional contractors or academic organizations.” The Space Force awarded the initial $100 million SpEC management contract to the Advanced Technology Institute in 2017 to manage the consortium through November 2022. However, the consortium's early success convinced the Space Force to revamp the effort with a significantly larger budget and an increased focus on cybersecurity. “We are honored to contribute to U.S. space advancement,” NSTXL CEO Tim Greeff said. “This has been a very successful program thus far, and we look forward to taking it to next level to unlock more value for the U.S. military by engaging more nontraditional defense companies and bringing great innovation to the nascent Space Force.” NSTXL also supports the U.S. Army's Training and Readiness Accelerator (TReX), the Navy's Strategic & Spectrum Missions Advanced Resilient Trusted Systems (S2MARTS), and the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) Energy OTA. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/12/15/space-force-selects-new-prototype-consortium-manager/