10 août 2020 | International, Terrestre
By: Jen Judson
WASHINGTON — The Government Accountability Office is warning the Army its approach to cost estimates and technical development for its Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle program is risky and should be amended, according to an August 6 report.
The Army has already struggled to get the OMFV program, intended to replace the Bradley Fighting Vehicle, off the ground, canceling its previous solicitation to compete after receiving just one bid from General Dynamics Land Systems last fall.
And GAO, in its report, is concerned that the service's newest attempt to get after delivering an OMFV comes with risk because the program documentation “does not clearly communicate the uncertainty associated with projected costs” and limits the program's “ability to gather the knowledge to effectively mitigate risk associated with system design maturity.”
For one, the Army has come up with a singular cost estimate for the life-cycle of the program rather than a range of potential costs that takes uncertainty into account, according to the report.
The OMFV program cost estimate, the report notes, is roughly $46 billion in fiscal 2019 dollars.
“Our past work has determined that a point estimate alone is insufficient for managers to make informed decisions about the cost of a program,” the GAO writes. “For informed decisions, the cost estimate must reflect a degree of uncertainty, typically achieved through an uncertainty analysis, so that level of confidence can be given about the estimate.”
For example, the OMFV program will be optionally manned, “which adds complexity and unknowns to the design as no vehicle like this currently exists in the Army's ground vehicle fleet,” the GAO said. “But the uncertainty surrounding this complex design is not reflected in the point estimate.”
And because of this “decision makers are left making choices without a clear understanding of the impact on costs and may not be able to accurately budget for the program,” the report states.
The constrained development schedule for OMFV is also a cause for concern as it inevitably drives risk into the program. GAO notes the Army had laid out, in its previous solicitation, a plan to design and demonstrate an OMFV prototype in three years and three months, but has since spread the schedule out a bit more with the relaunch of the program and now plans to complete system development and prototype demonstration in “close to” five years.
The new solicitation also lays out a five-phase effort that will allow the Army to reassess the process at certain checkpoints throughout development, according to the report. The GAO also found promise in the Army's plan to use a modular open systems architecture to incorporate incremental upgrades.
In the Army's previous plan for OMFV it also planned to use a mix of existing and new technologies but, the GAO report states, the program did not include plans to complete an independent technology readiness assessment until it was approaching a production decision.
According to the Office of the Under Secretary for Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, in a report to Congress, “the least mature technology for OMFV had only been demonstrated at the component level in a laboratory environment,” the report notes, adding that the level of technology maturity would require “significant” additional development before it could be added to a weapon system.
“The Army is maturing, or has plans to mature, individual technologies to a level lower than the threshold recommended by leading practices before beginning system development,” the report says. “This creates a danger of limited insight into key technology risks.”
Critical technologies, GAO states, should be demonstrated in “an operational or realistic environment — not simply in a relevant environment — prior to their incorporation into a system design to ensure that they work as intended for the end-user.”
The GAO adds, based on past experience, that without proving out technology at that level, the Army risks the possibility that new capabilities won't work as planned and will require further maturation, which results in schedule slips and rising costs.
In the previous competition, OMFV didn't hold a systems engineering design review before beginning system development and the Army canceled the solicitation “in part due to the conclusion that contractors could not complete a system design that met requirements within the given schedule,” the report notes, which “illustrates the risk of beginning system development without conducting a systems engineering design review.”
Program officials told the GAO that the program office and requirements developers “may have misjudged the ability of contractors to integrate the desired technology within the given schedule.”
The GAO recommends the Army secretary direct the OMFV program office to include a range of cost estimates to support a range of possible outcomes as well as conduct systems engineering reviews at key decision points.
The report also lays out similar findings on the Mobile Protected Firepower program, which is heading into competitive prototype testing this summer. General Dynamics Land Systems and BAE Systems are competing to build the new light tank for Army infantry.
The GAO recommended the Army should ensure the MPF program also include a range of cost estimates that account for uncertainty.
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21 avril 2020 | International, Aérospatial, Naval
By: Megan Eckstein The shipbuilding, aviation and small space launch sectors are the three hardest-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic within the defense industrial base, according to the under secretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, despite a slew of memos and authorities signed out by the Pentagon to relieve pressure from sick workers and facilities closures. “We see a slowdown in the shipyards to an extent. Aviation is actually the most highly impacted sector we have right now. So the 20 different memos that Kim Herrington (director of defense pricing and contracting) put out are really to make sure our cash flows and we quickly get on contract so we can keep going,” Ellen Lord told reporters on a Monday morning news conference. She said her team is still in the process of going program by program and understanding what production milestones may be at risk due to pandemic-related disruptions – everything from work slowing down on assembly lines to allow for social distancing, to coping with a smaller workforce as some employees are sick or taking leave to care for children at home, to breaks in the supply chain as component suppliers struggle to keep on schedule. For now, Lord said she could not point to any specific programs or any specific milestones most at risk, but she said major defense acquisition programs as a whole will face about a three-month slowdown due to COVID-19. To try to stay ahead of the spreading disease, “we follow very carefully where the highest number of cases are throughout the country and we look at the defense industrial base, where they are located, so we try to anticipate the problems and work with the companies to keep going to the greatest degree possible” and work with companies in emerging hot spots to put mitigation measures in place before their workforces are hit. Lord also said that, as the Pentagon takes a close look at its supply chain, “one of the key things we have found out are some international dependencies. Mexico right now is somewhat problematical for us, but we're working through our embassy. And then there are pockets in India as well.” Specifically on Mexico, she said there is “a group of companies that are impacting many of our major primes” in the airframe production industry. She said she spoke to the U.S. ambassador to Mexico last week and would speak to Mexico's foreign minister today to ask for help reopening these major international suppliers. Without naming companies or sectors, Lord said in her opening remarks that, of 10,509 major prime contractors, 106 are currently closed and 68 have closed and already reopened. On the vendor side, out of 11,413 companies, 427 are closed, with another 147 having closed and reopened. Though the Pentagon can't help companies having to close because the workforce is sick, leaders can ensure that companies with healthy workers aren't left without work and waiting for contracts to be signed. The Navy and DoD have accelerated contract awards and urged prime contractors to quickly push work down to their suppliers of all sizes, so that as soon as a company is ready for new work, the work is awarded and money already paid. “I remain proud of the department's responsiveness in addressing defense industry concerns outlined on [regular calls between the Pentagon and industry associations]. Mr. Kim Herrington, director of defense pricing and contracting, has issued 20 defense pricing and cost memos, aggressively responding to industry needs and impacts. Those memos include guidance for increased telecommuting, increased progress payment rates, acquisition timeline impacts, relief for those who cannot work, and more,” Lord said. “Vice Adm. David Lewis, Defense Contracting Management Agency director, modified 1,500 contracts to help companies to file invoices at the higher progress payment rate, and he also worked with Defense Finance and Accounting Service for a seamless transition for invoices. Based on submitted invoices, we expect payments at the higher progress payment rate to start this week, helping provide $3 billion in increased cash flow to industry. I commend Lockheed Martin and Boeing for both publicly committing to ensure this cash flow goes quickly down the supply chain to small businesses who need it most. We are hoping for similar public announcement from other major primes.” In addition to the actions the Pentagon can take on its own to help industry, Lord said the Defense Department is actively in talks with lawmakers and staffers to discuss a follow-on economic stimulus bill in the works. Though she couldn't get into specifics, she said it would cost DoD “billions and billions” to implement a section of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act “which allows agencies to reimburse contractors for payment to workers who are prevented from working due to COVID-19 facility closures or other restrictions.” She said the Pentagon hoped to see some funding in the next stimulus bill to help with that bill, as well as to pay for medical supplies and cover costs of delays in major defense acquisition programs. So far, the Defense Logistics Agency has provided more than 1.8 million N95 masks, 3.2 million non-medical and surgical masks, 8.4 million pairs of exam gloves, 275,000 surgical gowns and 8,000 ventilators to the military services, which are being used both to keep DoD personnel healthy as well as to support DoD's contribution to the multiagency efforts around the country. The Pentagon has also provided 10 million N95 masks to the Department of Health and Human Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency and is prepared to give another 10 million from DoD stockpiles. Additionally, DoD will invest $133 million to increase domestic production of N95 masks to more than 39 million in the next 90 days, Lord announced. Contracts have been finalized with 3M for $76 million, O&M Halyward for $29 million and Honeywell for $27.4 million. Beyond new mask production, DoD also spent $415 million to buy 60 Battelle Memorial Institute Critical Care Decontamination Systems that will be able to sterilize N95 masks to allow for reuse up to 20 times, and therefore reduce the demand for new masks. “Six units were delivered last week, including two to New York and one each to Columbus, Ohio; Boston; Chicago; and Tacoma; providing the ability to sterilize 3.4 million masks a week, reducing the need for new masks by the same number,” Lord said. “All 60 systems will be available by early May for prioritization and distribution by Health and Human Services and Federal Emergency Management Agency. Once all are delivered, these 60 units will allow 4.8 million masks to be sterilized per day, almost 34 million per week.” https://news.usni.org/2020/04/20/dod-shipbuilding-aviation-hardest-hit-sectors-in-defense-industrial-base-by-covid-pandemic