23 mars 2020 | International, Aérospatial

As USAF Fleet Plans Evolve, Can The F-35A Program Survive Intact?

Steve Trimble

Original estimates for costs, schedules and quantities of the Lockheed Martin F-35 upon contract award in October 2001 proved highly unreliable over the fighter program's nearly two-decade life span, but one critical number did not: 1,763.

That four-digit figure represents program of record quantity for the U.S. Air Force—the F-35's largest customer by far—accounting for more than half of all projected orders by U.S. and international customers. The Navy and Marine Corps, the second- and third-largest buyers of the combat aircraft, respectively, downsized their planned F-35 fleet by 400 aircraft in 2004. But the Air Force's quantity never budged.

Although the Air Force's official number remains unchanged, the F-35A is facing a new credibility test after a series of public statements made by Gen. Mike Holmes, the head of Air Combat Command (ACC).

  • Air Force will consider UAS to replace some F-16s
  • ACC sets 60% goal for fifth-gen mix in fighter fleet

In late February, Holmes suggested that low-cost and attritable unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) might be considered by ACC as a replacement for F-16 Block 25/30 jets (also known as “pre-block F-16s”) within 5-8 years. In congressional testimony on March 12, Holmes added that ACC's goal is to achieve a fighter fleet ratio of 60% fifth-generation jets, such as F-35As and F-22s, to 40% fourth-generation aircraft, including F-15s, F-16s and A-10s. He also said a recent analysis by the Office of the Secretary of Defense recommends an even split between fourth- and fifth-generation fighters.

Barring a significant increase in the Air Force's authorized force structure, both statements appear to jeopardize the mathematical possibility for the F-35A to achieve the full program of record.

As fleet acquisition plans stand today, the F-35A program of record appears sound. Lockheed has delivered at least 224 F-35As to the Air Force so far. The public program of record calls for the F-35A to replace A-10s and F-16s, which currently number 281 and 1,037, respectively, according to Aviation Week and Air Force databases. In 2010, Lockheed and F-35 Joint Program Office officials also confirmed that the F-35 would replace the F-15E fleet after 2035, which currently numbers 228 aircraft. Adding the number of F-35As already delivered, the Air Force has a replacement population of 1,770 aircraft.

But Holmes' statements could significantly alter the equation. The service's latest budget justification documents show about 325 of the 1,037 F-16s now in the Air Force fleet form the “pre-block” fleet that could be retired by attritable UAS instead of F-35As.

Holmes' goal of a fighter fleet with a 60% share of fifth-generation jets also complicates the forecast for the F-35A. Including the F-22 fleet's 186 aircraft, as well as 234 F-15C/Ds, the Air Force today operates a total fleet of 2,190 fighters. A 60% share of the fleet results in 1,314 total fifth-generation aircraft. After subtracting the numbers of F-22s, the Air Force would have room for only 1,128 F-35As, which implies a 34% reduction from the program of record of 1,763.

The head of the Air Force's F-35 Integration Office acknowledges the numerical disparity implied by Holmes' statements, but he stands by the F-35 original program of record.

“The program of record for this aircraft is really long,” Brig. Gen. David Abba said on March 9, referring to the Air Force's plans to continue F-35A production into the mid-2040s. “I understand that's a natural question to ask, but I don't think anybody's ready to make that sort of a declaration.”

Altering the program of record would not change the steady, downward trajectory of the F-35A's recurring unit costs. Last year, Lockheed agreed to a priced option for Lot 14 deliveries in fiscal 2022, which falls to $77.9 million. But changing the overall procurement quantity does have an impact on the program acquisition unit cost (PAUC), which calculates the average cost per aircraft, including recurring and nonrecurring costs. In the program of record, the PAUC estimate is currently $116 million each for all three versions of the F-35.

Noting the forecast length of the F-35 production program, Abba recommends taking a long-term view.

“I would focus less on the program of record element,” Abba said, and more on the Air Force's plans “to keep options open.”

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/usaf-fleet-plans-evolve-can-f-35a-program-survive-intact

Sur le même sujet

  • To keep up with our competitors, America must boost shipbuilding

    30 juillet 2020 | International, Naval

    To keep up with our competitors, America must boost shipbuilding

    By: Sen. David Perdue Right now, the world is more dangerous than any time in my lifetime. The United States faces five major threats: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and terrorism. We face those threats across five domains: air, land, sea, cyberspace and space. The U.S. Navy is one of the most effective tools we as a country have to maintain peace and stability around the world. Today, however, the Navy is in danger of being surpassed in capability by our near-peer competitors. On top of that, our competitors are becoming even more brazen in their attempts to challenge our Navy every day. To address this, the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act called for a 355-ship Navy to be built as soon as possible. This effort is extremely expensive: $31 billion per year for 30 years. This can't be funded by new debt. We must reallocate resources to fund this priority. It is unclear at this time whether we will be able to achieve this goal, however, because Washington politicians have failed to provide consistent funding to our shipbuilding enterprise over the years. The last two Democratic presidents reduced military spending by 25 percent. Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did it. Also, since 1975, Congress has only funded the government on time on four occasions due to our broken budget process. As a result, Congress forces the military in most years to operate under continuing resolutions, which further restricts the Navy's efforts to rebuild. These shortsighted decisions by Washington have had draconian effects on our military readiness. They have decimated our industrial supplier base and severely damaged critical supply chains. According to a 2018 report from the Pentagon, the entire Department of Defense lost over 20,000 U.S.-based industrial suppliers from 2000 to 2018. This means that, today, many shipbuilding components have just one U.S.-based supplier, and others are entirely outsourced to other countries. This is one of the reasons why it is doubtful that we can reach 355 ships unless major changes are made immediately. If we don't strengthen our industrial supplier base, there is simply no way to scale up ship production and maintenance capabilities to meet the requirements of a 355-ship fleet. The Department of Defense has not yet released this year's 30-year shipbuilding plan as required by law, and time is running out to reach the Navy's most recent projection of a 355-ship fleet by 2034. However, even if the Department of Defense has a solid, achievable plan to only reach 355 ships, I am skeptical that it will be enough. I am skeptical because America's biggest long-term challenge, China, is already running laps around us on shipbuilding. The Chinese Navy has 350 ships today, compared to our 300. By 2034, China is projected to have more than 425 ships. Even if we reached 355 ships, we would still have a 70-ship disadvantage, at the least. On top of that, because of the range restrictions in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which just ended in 2019, China has surpassed, or “out-sticked,” us in some missile capabilities as well. There are several steps we can take to respond to these developments. For starters, we need to place greater emphasis on funding our shipbuilding enterprise. Also, we need to rebuild our industrial supply chains through consistent, robust funding and by eliminating continuing resolutions. This year's NDAA takes critical steps to ensure we can keep up with our near-peer competitors and keep our country safe. It authorizes an increase of more than $1 billion for the construction of new submarines, destroyers and amphibious dock ships. It invests hundreds of millions of dollars to support our industrial supplier base. However, more work remains to be done in the coming years. We need to dramatically build up our Navy beyond 355 ships to ensure that the American-led free world can continue. President Teddy Roosevelt once said that “a good Navy is not a provocation to war. It is the surest guarantee of peace.” If we don't continue ramping up our shipbuilding enterprise right now, the world that we will be passing on to our children and grandchildren will only continue to grow more dangerous. Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., is the chairman of the Seapower Subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee. https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/07/29/to-keep-up-with-our-competitors-america-must-boost-shipbuilding/

  • Leonardo, KNDS forge European industry alliance for next-gen tanks

    13 décembre 2023 | International, Terrestre, Sécurité

    Leonardo, KNDS forge European industry alliance for next-gen tanks

    The team-up will kickstart Italy’s involvement in the Main Ground Combat System and secure the country a spot at the table for Leopard 2 A8 upgrades.

  • In a COVID-19 world, system integration is the best approach

    30 octobre 2020 | International, C4ISR

    In a COVID-19 world, system integration is the best approach

    Lt. Gen. David Mann (ret.) and Maj. Gen. Francis Mahon (ret.) As COVID-19 is adding “social distancing” and “PPE” to our everyday lexicon and making handshakes a thing of the past, Project Convergence's experimentation with artificial intelligence and integration is moving the U.S. Army closer to the realization that “any sensor, any shooter — or any sensor, best shooter” applies to more than solely the air and missile defense community. Project Convergence is validating the path to success in future combat operations by integrating capabilities of many systems and not solely hanging our hopes on a new, best artillery or aviation or maneuver system. Concurrently, it is validating the need for the Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense system, or AIAMD. “See first, understand first, act first, and finish decisively” was the mantra of Army transformation in the early 2000s, and here we are, 20 years into the 21st century, with AIAMD modernization efforts on the cusp of achieving the first two elements of that axiom — which enables the last two. AIAMD's development has not been easy, but it is essential, as our adversaries have not taken a tactical pause. North Korea is now a nuclear state with intercontinental ballistic missiles and, as recently noted on Oct. 10, other missile initiatives underway. China is creating barrier islands, improving its air and missile forces, and building a carrier fleet. Russia has optimized Syria and Crimea as proving grounds for its capabilities and forces while regularly probing NATO and North American airspace. Iran has fired ballistic missiles against undefended U.S. bases, demonstrated technical and tactical prowess by executing an integrated and complex armed unmanned aerial system and cruise missile attack against Saudi Arabia, and provided nonstate actors an expanded poor man's air force. Cyber, too, is becoming “mainstream” among our adversaries, and two of our near peers are developing hypersonic weapons, as witnessed in Russia's recent Zircon cruise missile test. As the U.S. Army, and the military at large, look to the future, all acknowledge integrating systems achieves a synergistic effect from our limited number of sensors, weapon systems and munitions. Integration closes gaps and seams, and enables the timely application of fires while reducing the cost-per-intercept dilemma. Closed architectures are a thing of the past, as are stovepiped systems. We must leverage each other's data and information and apply the best available weapon to counter threat activities or inflict maximum damage upon an adversary. If the Army's Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor can provide an accurate launch point for a ballistic missile, shouldn't the Army's Precision Strike Munition or other long-range fires capability leverage this data in real time for an offensive strike? If an F-35 fighter jet detects aerial threats it cannot counter, shouldn't it pass this data via a joint architecture so the joint family of systems can defeat those threats? Project Convergence is endeavoring to expand integration and advance operating concepts to leverage all possible capabilities. It is a logical extension of a key AIAMD modernization effort — the Army's IAMD Battle Command System, or IBCS — which demonstrated impressive capabilities during a recent limited-user test. Patriot batteries executed near-simultaneous engagements against ballistic missiles and low-altitude cruise missiles, while using only Sentinel targeting data provided to IBCS. Multiple capabilities operating as an integrated system — leveraging one element's information and another's lethality to defeat a complex and integrated attack — represents true integration. The Missile Defense Agency's integration efforts with the Patriot and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense systems, and its recent successful flight test, also demonstrate the power of an integrated approach. Specifically, this capability enables earlier engagements, expanded battlespace, an increase in defended area, flexible firing doctrines, interceptor optimization and the tightening of operational seams. We cannot afford to slow these efforts or take our eye off the objectives and capabilities these programs will deliver. IBCS is approaching a key milestone decision, which will enable low-rate production to begin, execute additional development and operational tests, and field an initial operational capability in 2022. Further integrating IBCS with other Army systems must be a future priority: It is the standard bearer for air and missile defense integrated operations and a key enabler for dealing with complex and integrated attacks. This investment requires sustained support from the Department of Defense and Congress as well as priority funding as we wrestle with flat budgets and COVID-19's fiscal challenges and potential bills. The Army is expected to add IBCS to Project Convergence — a good plan, but this action cannot become a distraction or diversion of resources that slows its development and fielding. IBCS, as well as the integration of Patriot and THAAD, are critical to success in today's tactically and technically challenging operations, which are stressing the force. Our integration efforts must expand to all joint air and missile defense systems and to our allies and partners, who remain essential to our success. AIAMD will also be a major contributor to the Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control concept and the Air Force's Advanced Battle Management System — two key programs focused on integration at the theater level. COVID-19 has changed our lives in many ways and will levy a bill on our defense budgets. We cannot allow integration programs or initiatives to become COVID-19 casualties because seeing first and understanding first are the most critical elements in managing a crisis and keeping it from becoming a catastrophe. Retired Lt. Gen. David Mann led U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. He has also commanded Army air and missile defense forces in Iraq, Southwest Asia and the United States. Retired Maj. Gen. Francis Mahon served as the director for strategy, policy and plans at North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command. He also commanded Army air and missile defense forces in Southwest Asia, South Korea and the United States. https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/c2-comms/2020/10/29/in-a-covid-19-world-system-integration-is-the-best-approach/

Toutes les nouvelles