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Study will also look at how Canada will meet its 'obligations as it transitions to a new fighter fleet' Lee Berthiaume Canada's auditor general has started to dig into one of the Trudeau government's most contentious claims, upon which rests the fate of hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars: that the country is facing an urgent shortage of fighter jets. The claim was first made in November 2016 when the Liberals announced that Canada didn't have enough fighter jets to defend North America and simultaneously meet the country's NATO commitments, and that a stopgap was urgently needed until the entire CF-18 fleet could be replaced. The government originally planned to buy 18 interim Super Hornets from Boeing for $6.4 billion before the deal was scuttled late last year in favour of buying 25 used jets from Australia for $500 million. But critics, including opposition parties and former air force commanders, accuse the government of fabricating an urgent "capability gap" — as the shortfall is known — by changing the military's requirements to avoid having to buy the F-35 stealth fighter. Auditor general Michael Ferguson is now scrutinizing this "capability gap" as part of an overall fighter-jet review, according to an internal memo written by officials at the federal procurement department and obtained by The Canadian Press through access to information legislation. The memo to Public Services and Procurement Canada deputy minister Marie Lemay references a meeting with Ferguson's staff in December in which they laid out the objectives of their audit. Full article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-fighter-jets-1.4763444

Posted on August 1, 2018 by Chris Thatcher Forgive BGen Michel Lalumiere if he begins to sound like a broken record. But his answer to any question about Air Force development and new capabilities–a new information network, fifth-generation fighter jet data fusion, remotely-piloted aircraft surveillance systems, enhanced search and rescue sensors, or the future of anti-submarine warfare systems–always begins with one word: people. The Liberal government's defence policy of 2017 put some much-needed funding and a “lot of clarity” behind a lengthy list of Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) major and minor capital projects, everything from space-based maritime domain awareness and satellite communications, to air-to-air refuelling tankers, multi-mission aircraft and modernized helicopters. But in an Air Force of just over 15,000 personnel, military and civilians, the transition from a legacy aircraft to a new one–or even the modernization of an existing platform with improved systems–can quickly strain the training and operational squadrons. Temporarily surging a capability as the RCAF did with unmanned aerial systems in Afghanistan is one thing; sustaining it for a longer period is another. And as much as Lalumiere, the director general of Air Force Development, might wish to hit a pause button to allow aircrews, maintainers and logistics specialists the time to bring a new platform into service, the reality is that RCAF Wings have never been busier. And ensuring a level of high readiness for operations trumps all. So, the first question when weighing the merits of any acquisition or upgrade project, which average around seven years to complete, is always the same: How will it impact people? Automation and artificial intelligence may one day lighten the workload, but for now every platform, even unmanned systems, remains people intensive. Any transition fraught with additional personnel requirements presents a problem. “It's always about people because we're definitely not that automated yet,” Lalumiere told RCAF Today in a recent wide-ranging interview. “We think about people first ... and we have to prepare well in advance for all of these transitions.” The RCAF views existing platforms and acquisition projects through a lens of AIR Power: Agility, integration, reach and power. That translates as an ability to perform a variety of missions with a single platform over great distance while integrating seamlessly with allies, other agencies and sister services. But it equally applies to maintenance, logistics, procurement, data architecture, information management, and other enabling systems–even government policy. An advanced fighter jet will not achieve its expected performance if what the military calls key “enablers” and supporting systems are not equally advanced. “What does it mean to build a fifth-generation air force? It quickly goes beyond the fighters,” acknowledged Lalumiere. “A lot of what the fighter needs to operate at that level actually comes from the rest of the Air Force. It's a very fundamental question from an organization perspective, because it means important investment: People and money. We think money is the hard part; it's actually people.” Daunting as that might seem, the Air Force has been here before, he noted. In previous eras of change, it has made decisions about the capabilities in which it would invest. “We have tough choices to make,” he said about the list of projects. “But we don't have all the capabilities today that we might have described a decade or 20 years ago because we [recognized] we would have to pick and choose.” Future Aircrew Training Near the top of the project list is Future Aircrew Training (FAcT), a program that has evolved in recent years to encompass not only pilot training but also air combat systems officers (ACSO) and airborne electronic sensor operators (AESOPs). Pilot training is currently delivered under two contracted programs, NATO Flying Training in Canada (NFTC) and Contracted Flying Training and Support (CFTS), while ACSOs and AESOPs are developed at 402 Squadron at 17 Wing Winnipeg, Man. NFTC and CFTS are scheduled to phase out in 2023 and 2027, respectively. Incorporating ACSOs and AESOps under the same umbrella as pilot training is a way to better manage available training aircraft, instructors and course standards, and recognition that the current practice of integrating the three trades at the operational training unit is too late in the process and needs to begin much earlier, Lalumiere explained. The RCAF has sought information from industry at regular intervals since 2013 on how the program should be structured and delivered. In early May, the government hosted a multi-day session with companies to brief on the planned procurement approach, key milestones and core requirements, and hold one-on-one meetings. One of the objectives, said Lalumiere, is to capitalize on the experience companies have gained in recent years providing training services in Canada and globally. Many are now able to offer solutions that weren't possible when the RCAF first initiated discussions almost a decade ago about future aircrew training. Of note, CAE and KF Aerospace, the two prime contractors for NFTC and CFTS, in May announced a joint venture called SkyAlyne to develop and deliver military aircrew training in Canada. While the two companies continue to manage the existing programs, the joint venture will focus on building synergies between them. Among the FAcT requirements is an increase in the throughput of all three trades. But that will create a demand for more trainers. Aircrew training today is primarily provided by serving qualified flight instructors, but the door is open for a greater mix of military and contracted instruction, he said. The RCAF is also seeking input from industry on the location and quantity of training centres and possible consolidation. To aid industry with their eventual proposals, “we have a few studies ongoing that try to describe the airspace capacity over those training areas and what we can do within that,” added Lalumiere. But what concerns him most is the transition phase. “All of this will have to be seamless,” he said, noting that both the legacy and new programs might overlap at the same locations for a period, again creating a huge demand on people. Strategic Tanker Transport Capability The RCAF had also planned to hold off on a decision on the next air-to-air refuelling tanker until after the next fighter jet was announced. However, as most replacement contenders are capable of fuelling whichever aircraft is acquired and could interoperate easily with allies, the STTC project is now a higher priority. One of the reasons for that is the lack of agility with the five CC-150 Polaris aircraft. Just two are fitted for tanking and both are probe and drogue; two more provide passenger and cargo transport, and the fifth is fitted for strategic government transport. A recent report prepared for the RCAF on the health of the Polaris found the “fleet is doing well, but the [aircraft are] not interchangeable,” said Lalumiere. That lack of agility and interoperability with allies is driving requirements for both boom and probe and drogue refuelling systems, and for greater sensor and network interoperability. The RCAF plans to retire its four H-model CC-130 Hercules tankers, operated by 435 Transport and Rescue Squadron at 17 Wing Winnipeg, in 2020/2021. So, whether the CC-150 replacement requires five, six or more aircraft remains to be seen. To address Lalumiere's perpetual people challenge, the Air Force would like a jet with the endurance to reach any destination on one fuel stop, though he said a market analysis would inform what's possible. “If we do two [or] three fuel stops, and my crew day is actually over after one fuel stop, we need to put split crews at these stops,” he observed. “We need to be more effective.” Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft Arguably one of the more captivating projects on the Air Force Development list is CMMA. Originally billed as a replacement program for the CP-140M Aurora long range patrol aircraft, Air Force officials have now indicated the eventual solution could be a mix of aircraft. Recently retired RCAF commander LGen Mike Hood spoke often at public events and in interviews of transferring much of the world-leading ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) and anti-submarine warfare technology on the Aurora to a Bombardier-built platform. But at an industry outlook in April, officials suggested rather than a one-for-one platform replacement, CMMA could be a mix of manned and unmanned aircraft. “It's been pretty amazing what has been accomplished with the CP-140,” said Lalumiere. But “I think the [future] challenges will be of such a magnitude that we will have to come to them with a holistic set of capabilities.” Rather than a single project with a start and finish date, he said the more likely scenario is a rolling introduction of platforms and systems with open architecture to match the pace of technology. “We can phase in what we need when it's ready and we can continue phasing in as the next capabilities become ready.” Remotely-Piloted Aircraft System Once known as the Joint Unmanned Surveillance Target Acquisition System, or JUSTAS, the project to acquire a remotely piloted aircraft (RPAS) now has a more accessible name. But the requirements remain largely the same. Today, though, industry is better equipped to meet them. Lalumiere believes the market has evolved since the RCAF first stood up a project office in 2005 to look at a medium altitude, long endurance unmanned capability, to the point where challenges such as operating in unsegregated air space, that once seemed “like mountains,” have now been largely resolved. But the personnel requirements posed by unmanned systems loom large. Managing the data processing, exploitation and dissemination (PED) generated by the sensor suite in a long range and long endurance capability–which is the true force multiplier aspect, he noted–requires a sizeable force. “This will be the keystone project that will initiate the delivery of a sustainable PED capability by the RCAF,” he said. “[My staff] have not agreed on how many trades they've been describing to me, but I know we are already into double digits,” he added of the number of people required to stand up a squadron and sustain the capability, including the distribution of data, from a main operating base and forward locations in Canada and on international missions. One key question still to be answered is whether the RPAS solution is one platform capable of ISR and target acquisition and strike missions, or two with distinct domestic and expeditionary configurations and payloads. “The analysis work is looking at that,” he said. But whatever is acquired must be interoperable and able to share data with 5 Eyes (Canada, U.S., U.K, Australia and New Zealand), NATO and coalition allies, a process that likely has defence policy implications, he added. Griffon Limited Life Extension Replacement of the CH-146 Griffon may provide the next major helicopter procurement opportunity for industry–and with some intriguing possibilities. The RCAF, National Defence and Bell have been closely monitoring the structure of the 20-year-old utility helicopter and believe it can continue to perform “yeoman's work” in conflict zones from Afghanistan to Haiti, Iraq and Mali until the early 2030s with a limited life extension. The project would address several obsolescence issues with avionics and other onboard systems, meet new regulatory requirements, and improve connectivity. But the RCAF is also looking beyond 2030 to the eventual replacement. Like CMMA, the eventual solution might not be a single aircraft but rather a “tactical system,” observed Lalumiere, with the agility, integrated weapons and sensors, satellite connectivity, and endurance to fulfill a range of roles from escort and transport to close air support and perhaps attack. “Is it going to be only one aircraft or is it becoming a system? I'm going to be fascinated by the answer.” Fixed-Wing Search and Rescue With a new search and rescue airplane selected in the Airbus CC-295W, the RCAF has completed one of the lengthier procurement processes and is now into delivery of the first aircraft in 2019 and construction of a new search and rescue training centre at 19 Wing Comox. Though the CC-295W is expected to be a game-changing capability, its entry into service underscores Lalumiere's people management challenges. SAR is a 24/7, year-round, high-readiness service that can't be disrupted. Yet over the next few years, fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircrew training, new simulators, the Canadian Forces School of Search and Rescue, and training provided to CC-130H crews in Trenton will all be consolidated into a single, effective and holistic schoolhouse. “Part of the decision to acquire the CC-295W was also the retirement of the H model Hercs, including the tanker models,” he explained. “The plan is to transition [those aircrews] to FWSAR,” allowing the RCAF to maintain a high-readiness posture while simultaneously undergoing training on the new and upgraded aircraft. “These crews will help us achieve that success.” TIC3 Air Underpinning the success of many of these new and pending platforms is a little-known project called Tactical Integrated Command, Control, Communications – Air (TIC3-Air). Historically, the RCAF has purpose-built its data links for each expeditionary operation or domestic exercise, forming ad hoc networks to move, process and access the data generated by aircraft mission systems and payload sensors. TIC3 Air aims to build a more durable information highway, including establishing permanent Link-16 ground entry stations at locations across Canada. The project also involves modernized traffic management and air defence radios and cryptography. The challenge, said Lalumiere, is that no sooner has the project team defined a capability then the technology improves and “new needs start to surface.” TIC 3 Air will “clean up” and optimize the various systems, he said, but it, too, will draw significantly on RCAF professional personnel at its core for success. “We will ensure that this capability will be integrated in the larger enterprise ground IT infrastructure supporting the [Canadian Armed Forces]. This remains a key priority in the Information Management Group.” https://www.skiesmag.com/features/trouble-with-transitions/

By: Kyle Rempfer The Air Force began conducting its own depot maintenance for JSTARS July 17 at Robins Air Force Base, Georgia, in an effort to field the Air Force's primary ground surveillance and battle management aircraft quicker, despite contractor shortfalls. Maintenance for the E-8C Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System aircraft was previously done exclusively by Northrop Grumman at a facility in Louisiana, but the service has said the maintenance was too slow. Now, Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex will supplement the contractors to speed up the process. “Historically, the contractor has averaged about 400 days per aircraft,” Air Force Material Command spokesman Derek Kaufman told Air Force Times. “The driver has been to increase the number of aircraft available for operations and training. The Air Force intends to fly JSTARS into the mid-to-late 2020s, while the follow-on Advanced Battle Management System [ABMS] is developed," Kaufman said. The Air Force has not released exactly what the ABMS entails, but it will fuse information from satellites, drones, ground sensors and manned ISR aircraft. Because Robbins AFB is also playing host to the initial elements of the ABMS program, Kaufman said the base will continue to play a role in the command and control mission. In the meantime, maintenance delays for existing JSTARS must be streamlined, according to the press release announcing the push. “We've been focusing intensely for a couple of years on improving contractor-led depot performance, but aircraft are still remaining in depot too long,” said Steven Wert, the Air Force's program executive officer for battle management, who oversees these efforts. “We have to find ways to increase throughput and overall depot capacity, and we believe this option is well worth exploring.” The work done at the new facility will help the Air Force better understand the costs of performing JSTARS depot maintenance on its own. “Should this first organic induction prove successful, we currently plan two more JSTARS aircraft to be inducted, one per year,” Kaufman said. It's important to note that this maintenance plan is separate from efforts to retire the Air Force's fleet of 17 JSTARS. The 2019 defense authorization bill allocates funds for the ABMS program, but the Air Force will not be able to retire any of these planes until the second phase of that program is declared operational, according to Congress' bill. As a result, service officials are anxious to get more JSTARS into the air for operations and training while waiting to bring the ABMS program online. In addition to slow delivery, Northrop Grumman has had some issues with their maintenance in the past. An Air Force investigation released in March 2017 showed that contract maintainers left drainage holes covered on the bottom of a JSTARS' radome during depot maintenance between March 2015 and July 2016. This caused the radome to collect water and inflicted $7.35 million worth of damage to the aircraft. That damage was discovered on July 28, 2016, when the JSTARS aircraft assigned to the 116th Air Control Wing at Robins experienced radar failures during checks conducted by Air Force radar specialists. “When the specialists opened the radome for the radar, they discovered portions of the radar immersed in standing water with visible corrosion damage,” the report states. In the future, inducting more aircraft into the Air Force's own depot maintenance facility could offer some advantages, according to the service. The program office, operational wings, functional check flight crews and Air Combat Command's flight test detachment are all co-located at Robins. These locality benefits could help cut down on transportation costs. Additionally, start-up costs should be minimal because Robins already hosts the E-8C operational wings, according to the Air Force. “Our dedicated professionals and mission partners have extensive experience in overhauling and modifying large aircraft like the C-130, C-17 and C-5 fleet. I'm confident our team can leverage this experience and help the JSTARS community improve aircraft availability,” said Brig. Gen. John Kubinec, commander of Warner Robins Air Logistics Complex, in another press release. “Our team is excited about this opportunity and we stand ready to support this effort by working closely with the PEO and Northrop Grumman.” The Air Force still has an agreement with Northrop Grumman that runs through 2022, called a Total System Support Responsibility contract. The depot maintenance at Robins “would supplement, not supplant," the work being done by the existing contract, the Air Force clarified. “In fact, the Air Force will need Northrop's help to successfully execute this proof of concept,” according to the release. https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/07/31/air-force-begins-in-house-jstars-maintenance-amid-northrop-grummans-shortfalls/

By: Vivek Raghuvanshi NEW DELHI — India has quietly approved a plan to the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System-II through a government-to government deal with United States. The moves comes before September 6 “2+2 dialogue” between defense and foreign ministers of India and United States here to bolster bilateral defense and strategic partnership. The apex defense procurement body, Defense Acquisition Council, headed by Defense Minister Nirmarla Sitaraman, has approved the buy of hte NASAMS-II, manufactured by Kongsberg and Raytheon, at more than $1 billion, a Ministry of Defense official confirmed. The new system will replace India's aging Russian Pechora air defense systems that protect strategic assets and locations, said an Indian air force official. If this program is approved by the U.S., the deal will be expedited through foreign military sales. India is expected to issue the letter of request by end of this year. IAF official noted that NASAMS-II will have to be modified to India specific requirements and will integrated with the service's integrated command & control system. https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/07/31/india-to-spend-1-billion-on-advanced-air-defense-system-from-us/

As big defense firms line up to pitch their fighter planes to India, the government of Narendra Modi is demanding they build in India, something that might be at odds with the Trumpian America First philosophy. By PAUL MCLEARY WASHINGTON: The Trump administration has cleared the decks for what promises to be a huge increase in technology and weapons exports to India, putting the country on the same footing as members of NATO, and allies like Japan and Australia, when it comes to favored export status. While the new status may pave the way for major U.S. defense firms to lock up multi-billion deals with the Indian government, those deals would likely come with the stipulation that production be moved to India, something American defense giants like Lockheed Martin and Boeing have promised to do, even if it runs counter to the Trump administration's focus on creating more manufacturing jobs at home. Such offsets, as they are known in the arms export business, are a staple of such deals and are a crucial part of negotiations. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross made the announcement yesterday as part of the US government's continuing efforts to draw closer to Delhi, partly as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism in the region. Granting India Strategic Trade Authorization status also comes as the Indian military is considering spending tens of billions of dollars on drones, fighters and helicopters made by U.S. defense manufacturers. Ross, speaking at a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event, said the move reflects India's efforts to abide by multilateral export rules, and “provides India greater supply chain efficiency, both for defense, and for other high-tech products.” India's ambassador to the United States, Navtej Sarna, added that it is a sign of trust in India's “capabilities as an economy and as a security partner, because it also...would allow the transfer of more sensitive defense technologies,” and “fleshes out our defense partnership in a big way.” But the new trade status can only do so much, and India's decades-long reliance on Russian weaponry over U.S. or European equipment is something that shows no sign of changing anytime soon, a fact that rankles many on Capitol Hill. In Washington, the House recently passed its version of the 2019 NDAA, which granted Defense Secretary James Mattis' request to waive sanctions on partner countries that have bought Russian arms in the past, but the Senate has yet to take up the bill, and is expected to vote on it some time next month. The waivers, Mattis said in a series of letters to lawmakers, would allow the Pentagon to forge closer ties with countries like India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, by not penalizing them for having Russian equipment, even as they move closer to the U.S. But the chronically chaotic state of the Indian military's acquisition practices also presents significant hurdles, according to experts. Air Marshal M. Matheswaran, former deputy chief of the defense staff in the Indian Ministry of Defense told an audience at the Stimson Center in Washington that the Indian government and military often seek to simply to “fill in technological gaps” they believe they have, rather than building strategically. “Their procurement is a mess. They're not joint. They're risk adverse. They've just got a ton of problems,” one former White House official, who asked to speak anonymously, told me. “Broadly, in procurement they have tried in the post-Cold War era to diversify their procurements as a political sop to potential partners,” he said. “They start to move more through the pipeline than they can actually pay for, and they end up building this very motley force in a way that's not always coherent.” As it stands, the United States accounts for about 12 percent of India's defense imports, a number which is expected to grow 6.2 percent annually through 2023, according to a recent study by Avescent, a consulting firm. The Indian defense budget, at more than $53 billion, is the fifth-largest in the world, and as the Avascent analysis noted, it “is also one of the most competitive,” as local companies battle it out, along with a mix of Russian, French, Israeli, and American firms. The air force, for example, flys Russian MiG and French Rafale fighters, along with American C-17 and C-130 transport aircraft and Israeli Heron drones. In recent years, France has emerged as the big winner in several hard-fought awards, inking an $8.6 billion contract for 36 Rafale fighter aircraft in 2016 — which will serve as India's primary nuclear delivery aircraft — and a deal for six Scorpene-class submarines for $4.6 billion in 2005. As part of the government's “Make in India” initiative, most of the work on the subs will be done at the Mazagon dockyard in Mumbai. But Russia isn't going anywhere. Moscow is on the verge of finalizing a $3.2 billion contract for four S-400 surface-to-air missile systems with India, part of about $12 billion worth of Russian arms deals in the works with the Indian government. The two countries are also close to finalizing a $1.1 billion deal for 48 additional Mi-17-V5 military transport/utility helicopters, with final signatures expected during Russian President Vladimir Putin's October visit to India. According to local reports, the contract will mandate that 30 percent of the work be done by the Indian defense industry, as part of the Modi government's push to build up the Indian manufacturing sector. The helicopters joint U.S.-made Chinooks and Apaches in the country's rotary-wing fleet. The Indian government says that it doesn't have a problem with such a mix and match approach, however, even if it does complicate supply chains. Currently, the big contract up for an award is the Indian Air Force's requirement for 110 aircraft, expected to be worth as much as $15 billion. Boeing has announced it would join with Indian firms Hindustan Aeronautics Limited and Mahindra Defense Systems to manufacture its F/A-18 Hornet in the country if it wins the contract, and Lockheed Martin has pledged to move its entire F-16 production line to India from Greenville, S.C., to India, potentially at the expense of 250 South Carolina jobs. “The F-16 gives the Indian industry a unique opportunity to be at the center of the world's largest fighter aircraft ecosystem,” Lockheed exec Vivek Lallsaid earlier this year in his pitch, adding that the company was ready to equip the jets with the same target tracking device currently on the F-35, as well as a helmet-mounted tracking system and a new radio data link system. Swedish defense giant Saab Group is also in the running for the fighter deal, and has announced it is ready to do a “full” technology transfer of its Gripen-E fighter jet production to India if it wins the competition. Boeing, in conjunction with Indian manufacturer Tata has already moved part of its Apache helicopter fuselage manufacturing to India, and the factory will eventually be the sole supplier of the part for Boeing's worldwide sales. The promise was one of the keys to the company winning the $3.1 billion deal in 2015 for 22 Apache and 15 Chinook helicopters. While the deal for the fighter planes shakes out over the coming months, the competition is merely one part of a larger American push, which included a recent visit by the Pentagon's top weapons buyer, Ellen Lord, and the upcoming “two-plus-two” meeting between defense minister Nirmala Sitharaman, Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and their American counterparts, James Mattis and Mike Pompeo. And in a jab at the Russians, Indian officials announced this week that they would be replacing their Russian-made Pechora air defense systems around the capital in a $1 billion deal to buy the NASAMS-II, manufactured by Kongsberg and Raytheon. https://breakingdefense.com/2018/07/despite-trumps-rhetoric-u-s-defense-firms-pitch-moving-jobs-to-india/

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - General Electric Co (GE.N) has been awarded a $631 million contract for repair, replacement and program support of engine components used on the F/A-18 E/F and EA 18G aircraft, the Pentagon said in a statement on Tuesday. Reporting by Mohammad Zargham; Editing by Eric Beech https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-pentagon/ge-wins-631-million-u-s-defense-contract-pentagon-idUSKBN1KL2Y3

By: Kelsey Atherton Space is not so much hard as it is expensive. Satellites today are expensive machines, expensively built and expensive to launch, with the understanding that, once on orbit, they can work for years. That calculus assumes several eggs in every pricey basket, and as space moves from a home for military satellites to a domain where nations prepare for actual combat, building resilience in orbit means rethinking how satellites are done. It means rethinking costs in the billions and imagining them instead in the millions. And to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Paul “Rusty” Thomas it means creating a whole new ecosystem for payloads and launches. Thomas is the program manager for Blackjack, a DARPA initiative that wants to pilot a constellation of cheaper satellites for military communication, with the costs low, uplinks up and the resilience of the whole constellation baked-in. C4ISRNET's Kelsey Atherton spoke with Thomas about the program. C4ISRNET: There's a lot of interest in both low Earth orbit [LEO] and constellations of satellites. What is DARPA's specific goal with Blackjack? PAUL “RUSTY” THOMAS: Blackjack, as an architecture demonstration, will build a portion of a constellation, looking at about 20 percent of a fully proliferated LEO constellation. That's a range of 20 satellites, 20 percent of the 90 to 100 satellite constellation, which would give a ground user three to four hours per day or more of theater-level operations so that we could actually demonstrate what we're going to do with a full, fully proliferated 24/7 constellation that covers the entire Earth and gives global constant coverage and global constant custody. C4ISRNET: What was the logic behind accepting separate proposals for busses and payloads? THOMAS: Most exquisite spacecraft we built have been married to the bus and payload from Day 1. That's a wonderful model for exquisite spacecraft. But we're trying to build a proliferated LEO payload ecosystem — like the commercial commoditized bus ecosystem — that can match the numerous types of payloads. To do that you don't want to just show that one payload matches great and then move forward. That just gives you a great payload. To try and build that ecosystem out, you want to go to at least Program Design Review with the payload developers working to a generalized initial design covering numerous types of commoditized busses. Once you get deeper into the design phase, match that payload to a bus, which allows a large range of payloads to be developed. C4ISRNET: There's a lot of commercial interest in this space; does that pose any risk to deploying a new constellation? THOMAS: The goal of Blackjack is to prove you can leverage commercial approaches with potentially lower costs, lower cycle times, lower times for design and build. It also comes with the issue that we're not directing the approach to building the bus, we're not directing how the constellation is put together for these folks; therefore, the rest is getting the government itself to do that match and to put our systems into play in a way that marches in lockstep with them without directing their commercial elements will play. That brings risk. We have to learn how to do business a little different than it's been done in the past, and to move a little quicker than the government has in the past. C4ISRNET: So, there's no risk of LEO being too crowded to accommodate more constellations? THOMAS: No. Well, I wouldn't say no risk, there's always risk, the mega constellations that you're starting to see FCC filings for look like they're going to put hundreds, and some of them into the 10,000-plus range, and that's certainly going to be a challenge and it's going to be a risk. Fortunately, we have air traffic control systems on the ground that cover large numbers of aircraft in the air at any given time. We haven't actually taken that step into how to manage large numbers of spacecraft in space yet, but we believe that all the technology is there and it's just a matter of implementing an area where the government is going to be tracking what the commercial folks are doing. There's a risk — it's not major, space is big — but you absolutely need to track the spacecraft and make sure they can deorbit. But in terms of putting thousands or even tens of thousands of satellites into low Earth orbit, all of that seems very feasible and is not in the high-risk bucket. C4ISRNET: What's the rough timeline you're expecting for demonstrations? THOMAS: For the 20-satellite constellation, we plan to have the first two spacecraft that we have integrated to the commercial busses and the payload together ready by the end of 2020, with launch by early 2021. We will follow that in 2021 with the rest of the 18, once we've confirmed the first two are fine. We will have the full demonstration capability running late in 2021 with an expectation of theater-level autonomous operations from low Earth orbit in 2022. C4ISRNET: One argument for satellite constellations and against exquisite satellites is resiliency. How does that work here? THOMAS: You get a lower cost, the individual node becomes a bit expendable, you don't build your resiliency around the individual node, you don't try to protect that spacecraft to the nth degree like in exquisite billion-dollar-plus craft. If the Blackjack model works, spacecraft will be in the $3 million to $4 million range, $2 million to $3 million to put it into orbit. We're talking about a $6 million node, including the cost of getting it into space. Therefore, it's less than the cost of a high-end munition. The constellation itself becomes your resilient element. You can put your high-level availability, reliability and mission assurance at the constellation level instead of at the node, because of the numbers you're putting up. If one satellite has fallen, its replacement is coming over the horizon 10 to 15 minutes later. You have a different approach to resiliency, large numbers of spacecraft in play, which totally turns some of the counterspace elements on its ear. C4ISRNET: What counter-space elements might this be especially resilient against? THOMAS: You now have low-cost nodes, so a lot of the direct ascent type of methods out there no longer makes a lot of sense. Of course, you still have varied threats from non-kinetic and cyber. We still need to protect the constellation against all the other types of threats out there, so it probably helps the most on the kinetic side, but it certainly gives you lot of resilience in all the areas. C4ISRNET: What kind of communications presence will this enable? THOMAS: Blackjack is aimed at leveraging the new mesh networks being set up by these commercial companies. A user currently in the DoD might need to look up at two or three different options in space to actually talk and do communications in this space segment. Once we link up and do encryption, the user on the ground will look up and see hundreds or more potential network nodes overhead at any given point on the planet, North Pole to South Pole; it's going to drastically change how the DoD does communication. That is a bit independent of what Blackjack is going to do. If the commercial companies succeed and come out, that capability, call it raw gigabit-per-second class, not all of them it. But they all have many megabit data links from one point of the planet to another, at very low latency, 100-200 milliseconds, so you do really change the game for how any user, DoD included, does global communication. C4ISRNET: Is a desired end goal of Blackjack specifically a redundant spaceborne network that can function independently if access to internet on the ground is cut off? THOMAS: If you have a problem with your terrestrial network — whether it's a ground network system or point-to-point comms, fiber optics or others being interfered with — the space mesh network provides the ability to move the data up, move it through the space mesh, and move it back to the ground, without any other system being involved in that data transition. The switch network that Iridium has up right now, it's low bandwidth but a wonderful system in terms of moving data from one point to another on the planet through the Iridium gateways that DoD and its users have worldwide. Move that up to high broadband access, and not just two or three satellites overhead but dozens or hundreds, and it really does move us into a new realm. C4ISRNET: At what point in the program do bus and payload link? Is there a point where they're demoed together? THOMAS: In the [broad agency announcement] out right now, you can see we're looking for multiple payloads to go at least through phase one, potentially multiple buses to go through phase one. As we progress the programs through the preliminary design review into phase two and get critical design review, first two spacecraft built, we'll be selecting the ones to continue deeper and deeper into the program to match up and do the demo. We'll start with a wide range and narrow down to a smaller set to actually do the demonstration with a secondary objective of showing why a huge payload will work, why different types of payloads will be successful in this type of architecture, even though we've only got one or two of them. C4ISRNET: What does the future of Blackjack look like? THOMAS: We are looking at large numbers of types of payloads. We very much want to get into a rapid tech refresh cycle ... putting up payloads every two or three years that are newer version of the ones that have gone previously, have an open architecture standard so we can update over the air with better algorithms. https://www.c4isrnet.com/thought-leadership/2018/07/30/the-calculus-of-cheaper-military-comms-satellites/

by Sandra Erwin “Using hosted payloads may help facilitate a proliferation of payloads on orbit, making it more difficult for an adversary to defeat a capability." WASHINGTON — The Pentagon should use commercial satellites as host platforms for military sensors and communications packages, says a new Government Accountability Office report released on Monday. GAO auditors investigated the pros and cons of “hosted payloads” and agreed with what private satellite operators have been saying for years: The military can save money and get capabilities on-orbit faster by hitching rides on commercial satellites. The industry has been building huge spacecraft that have extra carrying capacity, and hosting national security payloads is viewed as a profitable business that also helps the military fill a need. The report says there are national security benefits to deploying military payloads on commercial satellites. “Using hosted payloads may also help facilitate a proliferation of payloads on orbit, making it more difficult for an adversary to defeat a capability.” Since 2009, DoD has used three commercially hosted payloads, with three more missions planned or underway through 2022. In 2011, the Air Force created a Hosted Payload Office to provide expertise and other tools to facilitate matching government payloads with commercial hosts. GAO found that defense programs using hosted payloads are not required and generally do not provide cost and technical data, or lessons learned, to the Hosted Payload Office. Having that information would “better position DoD to make informed decisions when considering acquisition approaches for upcoming space system designs.” The Pentagon has not been too keen on hosted payloads for several reasons, GAO noted. There is a perception among some defense officials that matching government payloads to commercial satellites is too difficult. Another concern is that DoD's knowledge on using hosted payloads is “fragmented, in part because programs are not required to share information.” DoD officials who spoke with GAO identified “logistical challenges to matching government payloads with any given commercial host satellite.” For example, they cited size, weight and power constraints as barriers to using hosted payloads. Some individual DoD offices have realized cost and schedule benefits, but “DoD as a whole has limited information on costs and benefits of hosted payloads,” said the report. Officials at the Office of the Secretary of Defense told GAO that “matching requirements between government payloads and commercial satellites is typically too difficult for programs to overcome.” DoD's Hosted Payload Office is “developing tools designed to help address these challenges,” said the report. Defense officials also argued that budget and planning processes are a hurdle. “This can complicate alignment with commercial timelines because the development of a government sensor would need to be underway well in advance of a decision to fund a commercially hosted payload approach.” Officials told GAO that it is possible to align government and commercial timelines. For example, the Missile Defense Agency adopted the commercial host's schedule to ensure its Space Based Kill Assessment payload was ready for integration and launch without delaying the host satellite or missing its ride to space. Similarly, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has been able to align acquisition and development schedules with the commercial host. In its written comments in the report, DoD concurred with GAO's recommendations and noted that the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center had initiated a major reorganization and that under the new organization, the Hosted Payload Office had changed and may not be the appropriate office for centralizing DoD-wide hosted payload knowledge. Language in the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act directs the Pentagon to seize oversight of military investments in hosted payloads. https://spacenews.com/gao-backs-use-of-commercial-satellites-to-host-military-payloads/

BY PATRICK TUCKER A research team is training computers to find and fuse clues from wildly different rivers of digital data. Hiding illicit nuclear programs might be getting harder, thanks to new ways of gleaning and combining clues from various rivers of digital data. That's the conclusion of new research funded in part by the U.S. Energy Department's National Nuclear Security Administration. Satellites offer one kind of information; social media another — particularly inside countries that may be trying to flout inspections. But large volumes of satellite imagery and social media data aren't similar. You can have one analyst examine satellite pictures and another look at social media posts to see if they align, but the process is time-consuming and generally far from comprehensive. The study's authors developed a method for fusing different types of data in a machine-readable way to offer a much clearer picture. “In light of their ubiquitous emergence, social media increasingly promise to be of great value even though associated applications have thus far remained simple, and their fusion with other data has been largely ad hoc,” the team from North Carolina State University writes in “Fusing Heterogeneous Data: A Case for Remote Sensing and Social Media.” Only by creating a new statistical method for fusing the outputs of satellite data and social media data do you get something you can use to predict what might happen next within a given area of interest, such as a specific nation's nuclear enrichment or weapons development. The researchers looked at satellite and social media data from August 2013, when deadly floods killed eight people and caused widespread damage in Colorado. They sought to show that if you could algorithmically identify which imagery showed the flooding from space, and which geotagged tweets described it on the ground, you could could much more quickly verify one data set against another — that is, you could determine whether incoming social media data supports the conclusions you might be reaching from your satellite data, and vice versa. “Next steps for the project include evaluating nuclear facilities in the West to identify common characteristics that may also be applicable to facilities in more isolated societies, such as North Korea,” notes a press release on the paper. One of the authors, NCSU computer and electrical engineering professor Hamid Krim, said the team would try to “address the insufficient knowledge in general in areas of great interest (e.g. N. Korea and Iran). The goal is to come up with systematic methodologies to transport knowledge about nuclear environments available in other areas (e.g., in the West) to these domains where there is very little available. Creating such an environment in these places of interest will help them detect potential undesired activity.” Of course, there are limitations to media monitoring in Iran and North Korea. The former's social media environment is largely underground, thanks to bans on Twitter and many other social networks. The latter has virtually no social media environment at all. Krim noted that the “adversarial strategy” of social-media censorship makes his team's analysis harder. But even social posts from nearby countries can help illuminate their more secretive neighbors, he said — think tweets from Japan after earth tremors are felt. https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2018/07/satellite-imagery-social-media-new-way-spot-emerging-nuclear-threats/150146/